February 15, 2026 12:01 PM GMT Technology – Software & Services | Europe Weekly Reboot – Software's Confidence Crisis In our latest thought piece, we examine how investor sentiment in Software has shifted from AI fuelled optimism to concerns about disruption, despite what we see as broadly resilient long term fundamentals. Thank you to all who voted for us in this year's Extel survey - we truly appreciate it! Key research: European Software: What's Causing the Collapse in Confidence? In a quieter week for e ...

February 13, 2026 09:36 AM GMT | M February 13, 2026 09:36 AM GMT Prices Out of the Doldrums? | Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com | Idea +852 3963-4015 | | --- | --- | --- | | China Musings Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | | | | Robin Xing | | | | Chief China Economist | | | Can the Year of the Horse Pull | Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com Jenny Zheng, CFA | +852 2848-6511 | | | Zhipeng Cai | | | | Economist | | | | Zhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7820 | | Upstream PPI improves on ...

February 13, 2026 12:53 PM GMT China Financials | Asia Pacific 4Q25 data shows still decent consumption payment growth despite some moderation Key Takeaways Still decent payment growth in NetsUnion and UnionPay despite some moderation in 4Q25: NetsUnion and UnionPay payment growth – a good proxy for consumption payment – has accelerated from low single digits or negative growth in 2024. In 4Q25, both NetsUnion and UnionPay payment growth moderated to 9.3% yoy and 8.7% yoy, down from 17.9% yoy and 15.4% yoy ...

February 13, 2026 05:04 AM GMT Cybersecurity | North America Q4 Preview and Reseller Survey – Round 2: Standing on a Platform, Highlighting AI Opportunity vs. Headwind With cyber names getting swept up in the latest AI software concerns, we look to the platform results to refocus investors on the tailwind AI is for cyber. Favor PANW, CRWD, particularly as SIEM/SASE stories should see growth from AI complexity, though see opportunity w/ most off-cycle names. Key Takeaways Opportunity Picks Up As We Get Towar ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **AI** industry, specifically the themes of **AI Adopters** and **AI Infrastructure**. Concerns regarding **AI disruption** are affecting various service industries, including financial advisory and brokerage [2][4]. Core Insights - **AI Disruption Concerns**: Market fears about AI disruption have expanded beyond software to include a broader range of service industries. This has led investors to reassess the earnings durability of service-oriented business models, impacting their performance [2]. - **Service Exposure**: The concept of 'service exposure' has emerged as a critical factor influencing thematic performance. The analysis categorizes 25 GICS Industry Groups into Service and Non-Service categories, revealing that portfolios with higher service exposure have underperformed [3]. - **Performance Metrics**: The **AI Adopters** sub-theme has a service exposure of **53%**, significantly higher than other themes. This high exposure introduces uncertainty regarding competitive dynamics and pricing sustainability, which is reflected in current market pricing [4]. - **AI Infrastructure**: In contrast, the **AI Infrastructure** theme has the lowest service exposure at **14%** and has shown the strongest year-to-date performance. This theme is less vulnerable to service disruption risks and benefits from ongoing capital expenditure and demand for compute, semiconductors, and enabling hardware [5]. Quantitative Analysis - Six quantitative lenses are used to evaluate the attractiveness of themes: 1. Information ratio 2. Earnings revision breadth 3. Bottom-up estimates 4. Valuation 5. Mutual fund positioning 6. Factor exposures - **AI Infrastructure** stands out with strong risk-adjusted performance, favorable earnings revisions, and positive fund positioning among outperforming mutual funds [6]. Additional Insights - The year-to-date performance of thematic portfolios is inversely related to their service exposure, indicating that lower service exposure correlates with better performance [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of being selective within the **AI Adopters** theme, recommending a focus on companies that possess pricing power to navigate the uncertainties introduced by AI adoption [4]. Conclusion - The analysis indicates a clear distinction between the performance and risk profiles of **AI Adopters** and **AI Infrastructure**. Investors are advised to consider service exposure as a key factor in their investment decisions within the AI sector [2][5].

CHINA BANKS Front-loaded gov. bond issuance, slowing credit expansion and robust deposit growth in Jan 2026 In January 2026, new Total Social Financing (TSF) and new loans amounted to Rmb 7.2tn/Rmb 4.7tn, respectively, compared to Rmb 7.1tn/Rmb 5.1tn in January 2025. Outstanding balances expanded by 8.2%/6.1% yoy respectively, compared to 8.3%/6.3% in December 2025. We summarize the key points below: 1) Retail credit saw a new increase of Rmb 0.5tn, roughly flat year-on-year, with a corresponding growth rat ...

February 13, 2026 02:20 AM GMT China Industrials | Asia Pacific Catalyst Driven Idea - Tesla Optimus Gen 3 Launch Tesla's Gen 3 Optimus is likely to be unveiled in 1Q26. We anticipate that enhancements in hand dexterity and body structure could benefit the China humanoid value chain. What and when is the catalyst? Tesla (covered by Andrew Percoco) has signaled an upcoming Gen 3 Optimus unveil by 1Q26. The China supply chain is highly sensitive to Optimus updates, as indicators of broader industry progress, ...

February 13, 2026 05:30 AM GMT Capital Goods | Europe 800vDC Data center - First Inning: What we have heard so far from the Electrical suppliers Since we first wrote in September, investor interest around the shift to 800vDC data center architecture has clearly intensified. Post 4Q25, we assess the latest developments across cap goods suppliers. Delta and Eaton still lead globally, while there is more debate on positioning of EU suppliers We have been early on the 800vDC topic. first writing it in Sep-2025 ...

February 15, 2026 07:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea Two Sides of the AI Debate For much of 2025, markets debated whether AI was just hype or a technology that could transform the economy and markets in a meaningful way. We have entered 2026 with that debate firmly tilted against the 'hype' argument. 4Q earnings reports from the large hyperscalers show unambiguous, escalating commitments to AI and the infrastructure powering it, evidence that AI is real and transformative. ...

We present five key takeaways from memory firms' 4Q earnings results: (1) low inventory turnover days (e.g., Hynix only 127 days vs 1Q23 peak of 233 days, or just 2-3 weeks vs 10+ weeks for finished memory modules); (2) strong ASP (Samsung Electronics' DRAM +40% QoQ; SK Hynix's NAND +32% QoQ); (3) aggressive capex spend (Hynix: W12tn vs W5tn/W7tn in 3Q25/4Q24); (4) good execution of HBM4 mass production/ shipment (Samsung, Hynix); and (5) bullish guidance for not only 1Q26 but also long term (memory super-c ...