Summary of the 2025 TMT Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: IT Hardware in North America - **Key Topics Discussed**: Resiliency in enterprise spending, AI infrastructure durability, tariff risks, federal government exposure, consumer health, and cost efficiency initiatives were highlighted as significant themes during the 2025 TMT Conference [1][3][16]. Core Insights 1. **Enterprise Hardware Spending**: - 2025 enterprise hardware spending plans are expected to improve compared to 2024, with no signs of material cuts in the last 30 days. However, uncertainty may affect small and medium business (SMB) spending [3][7]. - Growth is anticipated in PCs, storage, and traditional servers, with companies optimistic about PCs and storage [3][16]. 2. **AI Spending**: - Companies expressed confidence in the durability of AI spending across infrastructure and software. Notable mentions include IBM WatsonX and DELL's AI servers, which are well-positioned for growth [3][18]. - DELL expects AI server revenue to grow at least 50% year-over-year in FY26, reaching over $15 billion [18]. 3. **Tariff Risks**: - Companies have diversified supply chains to mitigate risks associated with tariffs, particularly from China and Mexico. Many firms plan to pass increased costs onto customers [18][19]. 4. **Federal Government Exposure**: - Most companies reported limited exposure to federal government spending, with IBM noting only 5% of its revenue comes from federal customers. Concerns about spending friction were acknowledged but not deemed critical [19][20]. 5. **Consumer Health**: - Weakening consumer sentiment was noted, impacting discretionary spending. Companies like SONO and HPQ reported challenges in the consumer PC market, indicating a tough environment for consumer electronics [20][21]. 6. **Cost Efficiency Initiatives**: - A focus on cost efficiencies was prevalent, with many companies adopting AI tools to enhance productivity. For instance, IBM reported productivity gains of up to 40% through internal AI technology [20][21]. Performance Metrics - **Market Performance**: - Since February 19, 2025, the average IT hardware stock has declined by 12%, underperforming the S&P 500 by 6%. Over 50% of the coverage is in correction territory [4][9]. - There has been a significant P/E multiple compression, averaging over 2x since February 19, 2025 [4][12]. Watch List Recommendations - **Overweight Rated Stocks**: - STX, DELL, and KRNT are highlighted as top picks due to strong management outlooks and growth potential [11]. - **Equal-Weight Rated Stocks**: - CDW and TDC are noted for their cautious but stable outlooks amidst current market conditions [11]. - **Underweight Rated Stock**: - SONO is under scrutiny due to concerns over consumer spending and market response [11]. Additional Insights - **Valuation Trends**: - More than 50% of hardware companies are trading below their pre-COVID median P/E ratios, indicating a potential undervaluation in the sector [12][14]. - **Future Outlook**: - While the current environment presents challenges, the overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic regarding growth in enterprise hardware and AI investments [3][16][18].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Internet industry in North America** - The overall performance of internet stocks declined by **4%** last week, with the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) both down **3%** [1][2] Key Company Performances - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Decreased by **6%**, trading at **$199.25** with a market cap of **$2,146.1 billion** and an EV/Revenue of **3.0x** for 2025E [5] - **Alphabet (GOOGL)**: Increased by **2%**, trading at **$173.86** with a market cap of **$2,146.8 billion** and an EV/Revenue of **5.2x** for 2025E [5] - **Meta (META)**: Decreased by **6%**, trading at **$625.66** with a market cap of **$1,626.1 billion** and an EV/Revenue of **8.3x** for 2025E [5] - **DoorDash (DASH)**: Decreased by **10%**, trading at **$178.08** with a market cap of **$82.8 billion** [5] - **Roblox (RBLX)**: Decreased by **10%**, trading at **$57.17** with a market cap of **$41.8 billion** [5] - **eBay (EBAY)**: Increased by **9%**, trading at **$70.51** with a market cap of **$34.2 billion** [5] Valuation Metrics - **AMZN/GOOGL/META** are trading at **26x/17x/22x** their 2026 EPS, reflecting declines of **21%/-15%/-3%** compared to trailing twelve months (TTM) averages [1][2] - The NTM EV/EBITDA multiples for **AMZN, GOOGL, and META** are **12.5x, 11.6x, and 13.4x**, respectively, which are **-9%** and **-11%** lower than their 2-year and 3-year averages [6] Market Sentiment - Broader tariff concerns are impacting investor sentiment, contributing to the decline in internet stocks [1][2] - The **Digital Media** sector shows a median increase of **39%** in EV/EBITDA multiples when treating stock-based compensation (SBC) as cash [11] Additional Insights - The **eCommerce/Marketplace** segment shows a median increase of **21%** in EV/EBITDA multiples when treating SBC as cash [13] - The **Gaming/Mobile App** sector also reflects a median increase of **22%** in EV/EBITDA multiples under the same conditions [14] - The **Travel/Shared Economy** sector shows a median increase of **41%** in EV/EBITDA multiples when treating SBC as cash [18] Conclusion - The internet industry in North America is currently facing volatility, with significant declines in major companies' stock prices due to external economic factors. Valuation metrics indicate a cautious outlook, with potential for recovery if market conditions stabilize.

Summary of the Conference Call on Asia Pacific Airports Industry Overview - The Asia Pacific airport sector is experiencing a patchy recovery influenced by divergent economies, capacity constraints, and policy decisions, particularly regarding China's reopening [2][39]. - The proprietary AlphaWise Airport Revival Tracker has been updated to reflect these dynamics [2]. Key Insights by Region China - International capacity has reached 78% of the 2019 level, while domestic flights are at 96% of 2019 levels [2]. - Earnings recovery for Chinese airports is expected to be pressured by soft consumption, although this is largely priced in [2]. - A preference for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (GBIA) is noted as a defensive investment due to lower exposure to duty-free business and higher dividend yield [2]. Japan - The Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) data for January 2025 indicates an annual demand of approximately 45 million, which is positive for air transport and hotel industries [3]. Thailand - Airports of Thailand (AOT) reported international traffic recovery to 95% of pre-COVID levels, but there are concerns over increased receivables from duty-free operators, amounting to Bt15 billion [4]. - Risks related to concession renegotiations are highlighted, with market reactions potentially overestimating the impact on concession revenues [4]. Oceania - Auckland International Airport (AIA) is seeing flat international passenger numbers compared to 2019, with a slight decline projected for March 2025 [5]. - AIA is awaiting a final decision on Price Setting Event 4 (PSE4) which could impact its weighted average cost of capital (WACC) [5]. Investment Ratings and Catalysts - Investment ratings for various airports include: - JAT (Tokyo International Airport): Overweight - GBIA (Guangzhou Airport): Overweight - AOT (Airports of Thailand): Overweight - AIA (Auckland Airport): Equal-Weight - SIAC (Shanghai International Airport): Overweight - BCIA (Beijing Capital International Airport): Equal-Weight [36]. - Near-term catalysts for these airports include: - Traffic recovery and growth in duty-free consumption for HMIA (Hainan Meilan International Airport) [37]. - Monthly passenger data and trends from the nationwide travel subsidy program for JAT [37]. - Domestic and international traffic recovery for AOT [37]. Market Dynamics - The recovery in air travel is heterogeneous, with shifts in market share expected as travel resumes [39]. - The AlphaWise Airport Revival Tracker provides insights into seat capacity changes, which are critical for forecasting passenger numbers [40][57]. Additional Observations - The data indicates that while some airports are recovering well, others are still facing challenges, particularly in China and Thailand [45]. - The overall sentiment in the Asia Pacific airport sector remains cautious but optimistic, with a focus on monitoring key metrics and catalysts for investment decisions [2][39]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the Asia Pacific airport industry, highlighting regional performance, investment opportunities, and market dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese consumer sector**, analyzing over **1,000 consumer stocks** to identify investment opportunities and trends in the market [2][33]. Core Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The rally in Chinese tech stocks, particularly due to AI advancements, is expected to positively influence the broader consumer sectors [2]. - **Revenue Growth**: Revenue growth is the primary driver of Total Shareholder Returns (TSR), with expectations for 2024-2026 driven by business model transformations and regulatory reforms [3][35]. - **Sector Performance**: - **Education Services** is projected to lead growth with a **24% CAGR** [3]. - **Specialty Retail** companies like **Pop Mart** are expected to achieve a **29% CAGR** due to collectibles trends and international expansion [3]. - **Soft Drinks** and **Personal Care** sectors are also expected to grow at **16% CAGR** and **12% CAGR**, respectively [3]. Profitability and Margins - **Operating Margins**: - High margins are seen in sectors with strong competitive advantages, such as **Distillers & Vintners** (~50% OPM) and **Soft Drinks** (~30% OPM) [4]. - Mid-tier performers include **Personal Care** (15-20% OPM) and **Apparel** (12-15% OPM) [4]. - Lower-margin sectors like **Specialty Retail** (8-10% OPM) show potential for improvement through premium segment penetration [4][5]. Return on Equity (ROE) - **ROE Segmentation**: - **Soft Drinks** and **Restaurants** lead with ROE exceeding **30%**, while **Household Appliances** and **Distillers** are around **20-25%** [6]. - Education Services show recovery potential despite current negative ROE due to regulatory adjustments [6]. Investment Opportunities - A screening identified **30-40 high-quality consumer stocks** with superior operational metrics, including revenue growth exceeding GDP rates and operating profit margins above sector averages [37][41]. - Key sectors identified for investment include: - **Soft Drinks**: Companies leveraging scale advantages and strategic assets [6]. - **Education Services**: Benefiting from regulatory stabilization [6]. - **Restaurants**: Capitalizing on consumption vouchers [6]. - **Retail**: International expansion opportunities [6]. - **Online Travel Operators**: Positioned to benefit from premiumization in the hotel market [6]. Market Evolution - The Chinese consumer sector has experienced three phases: growth (2014-2019), disruption (2020-2021), and adaptation (2021-2024), with a notable contraction in market capitalizations during the recent period [34]. Policy Implications - The Chinese government is expected to continue supporting consumption through stimulus packages, particularly targeting durable goods and services [59][60]. - Service-related stocks are preferred over durable goods due to their potential for sustainable growth [61]. Methodology - The analysis began with a dataset of **~1,300 consumer stocks**, filtered for market capitalization over **USD 1.5 billion** and daily trading volume exceeding **USD 5 million**, narrowing down to **~200 investable stocks** [62][64]. Conclusion - The report highlights significant investment opportunities within the Chinese consumer sector, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency, sustainable growth, and the impact of regulatory changes on various industries [37][49].

Summary of Hesai Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hesai Group - **Industry**: China Autos & Shared Mobility - **Ticker**: HSAI.O Key Financial Results - **4Q24 Performance**: - First-time GAAP net profit of Rmb147 million compared to a net loss of Rmb70 million in 3Q24 [2] - Revenue of Rmb720 million, a 33% increase quarter-over-quarter, aligning with guidance of approximately US$100 million [2] - Total LiDAR shipments reached 222,000 units, up 65% quarter-over-quarter [2] - Gross margin decreased by 8.7 percentage points to 39% due to lower high-margin NRE services revenue [2] - Operating expenses were contained at 55.2% of total sales, down from 63.6% in 3Q24 [2] - Full-year non-GAAP net profit for 2024 was Rmb14 million [2] 2025 Outlook - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected net revenues of Rmb3-3.5 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 44-69% [3] - **Net Income Projection**: Anticipated net income of Rmb200-350 million under GAAP and Rmb350-500 million under non-GAAP [3] - **Seasonal Expectations**: For the first quarter, net revenues are projected to be Rmb520-540 million, a 45-50% year-over-year increase, with total shipments around 200,000 units [3] - **Breakeven Point**: Expected to occur between Q1 and Q2 of 2025 [3] - **Client Mix**: Key customers include Li Auto, Xiaomi, Great Wall Motor, Leapmotor, and BYD, with a multi-year program with a European OEM expected to start by year-end [3] Gross Margin and Product Mix - **Gross Margin Confidence**: Management is optimistic about maintaining a gross margin of around 40% in 2025 despite lower average selling prices (ASP) for ATX and AT128 products [4] - **Product Mix Impact**: The ATX series is expected to dominate shipments, while robotics LiDAR products are anticipated to provide reasonable gross margins to offset the impact of a less favorable product mix [4] - **Long-term Value**: Management believes the content value per vehicle will remain between US$500 to US$1,000 with the introduction of Level 3 automation [4] Expansion into Robotics - **New Market Entry**: Hesai is expanding into the robotics market, forecasting shipments of 200,000 units of robotics LiDARs in 2025 [9] - **Partnerships**: Collaborations include a leading smart home robotics company for lawn mowers and orders from Agtonomy for autonomous agriculture vehicles [9] - **Technological Applications**: The XT series LiDAR is being utilized for advanced 3D vision in robotics and automating in-plant driving systems at BMW factories [9] Market Position and Valuation - **Current Stock Rating**: Equal-weight with a price target of US$15.00, indicating a potential downside of 6% from the current price of US$16.01 [6] - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately Rmb14.5 billion [6] - **52-Week Price Range**: US$20.18 to US$3.52 [6] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Potential market share gains, faster adoption of LiDARs by traditional OEMs, and sustainable pricing power [13] - **Downside Risks**: Slower adoption of LiDARs, ASP declines due to cost-cutting by OEMs, and threats from emerging technologies [13] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting Hesai Group's financial performance, future outlook, market expansion, and associated risks.

10 March 2025 | 5:14PM GMT GOAL Kickstart Reflation risk reversal - tracking the Europe vs. US repricing Last week was dominated by the repricing of Europe vs. US growth prospects following mixed US data and the unprecedented German fiscal package. EUR/USD closed on Friday above 1.08 after the largest weekly move since 2015. Our European economists materially upgraded GDP growth forecasts and raised their terminal rate forecast for ECB to 2%. ISM Services data was above expectations (53.5 in February) but t ...

Summary of Goldman Sachs China Property Weekly Wrap (11 March 2025) Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Property Market - **Current Trends**: The property market is experiencing a mixed recovery with government policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market and addressing economic risks. Key Highlights 1. **Government Policy**: The Government Work Report emphasizes "stabilizing the housing market" as a priority for 2025, focusing on preventing economic risks [1][1] 2. **Inventory Buyback Flexibility**: Local governments are granted more flexibility regarding acquisition entities, pricing, and usage of existing inventory buybacks [1][1] 3. **Demand-Side Policies**: Authorities are encouraging localities to reduce restrictive policies and expedite housing renovation programs [1][1] 4. **Supply-Side Control**: New land supply will be reasonably controlled, and efforts will continue to ensure project delivery and mitigate property developer debt defaults [1][1] Market Performance 1. **Sales Volume**: - New home sales volume decreased by 14% week-over-week (wow) but increased by 22% year-over-year (yoy) [5][5] - Secondary transactions increased by 1% wow and 37% yoy, indicating positive price expectations from homeowners [5][5] 2. **Year-to-Date (YTD) Performance**: - Primary Gross Floor Area (GFA) sold increased by 9% yoy but decreased by 24% compared to 2023 levels [5][5] - Secondary GFA sold increased by 18% yoy but decreased by 2% compared to 2023 levels [5][5] Market Sentiment 1. **Agent Sentiment**: The Centaline Salesman Index (CSI) was flat week-over-week but up by 11 percentage points from pre-easing levels [12][12] 2. **Seller Sentiment**: The Centaline Seller Asking Index (CAI) increased by 2 percentage points week-over-week and 5 percentage points from pre-easing levels [15][15] Inventory and Completions 1. **Inventory Levels**: Inventory decreased by 0.2% wow and 1.5% from the end of 2024, with inventory months at 26.0 [49][49] 2. **Completions**: The YTD GSPC tracker indicates a 20% yoy decline in completions for the first two months of 2025 [52][52] Regional Performance 1. **Tiered City Performance**: - Tier-1 cities saw a 22% decrease wow but a 34% increase yoy [22][22] - Tier-2 cities experienced a 17% decrease wow and a 25% increase yoy [26][26] - Tier-3 cities had a 14% decrease wow and a 19% increase yoy [30][30] Valuation Insights 1. **Valuation Metrics**: Offshore developers are trading at an average 30% discount to end-2025 estimated NAV, while onshore developers are at a 20% discount [60][60] 2. **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratios**: The average P/B ratio for offshore coverage is 0.5X for 2025, indicating a downturn in valuations [60][60] Implications for Investors - The mixed signals from sales volumes, inventory levels, and government policies suggest a cautious approach to investment in the Chinese property market, with potential opportunities in specific regions and segments [7][7]

10 March 2025 | 3:53PM EDT Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: Positive Growth News in the Euro Area, Negative in the US Please find an update of our proprietary global economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. Chart of the Week -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Index Index US Euro Area GS MAP Surprise Index (21 Day MA) Our daily MAP surprise i ...

V i e w p o i n t | 11 Mar 2025 02:50:00 ET │ 13 pages Commodities Dashboard Curve Structure, Volatility, Momentum and Positioning data – Mar 10 update CITI'S TAKE This is our new Commodities Dashboard which replaces our legacy Commodities Flows Chartpack and Commodities Volatility Dashboard and provides the latest curve structure, volatility, momentum and positioning data across major commodity markets. Our Backwardation Dashboard (see Figure 1) shows HH natgas and ICE coffee as the most backwardated commo ...

11 March 2025 | 7:41AM CST China Healthcare: Trip takeaways: Medtech bottoming out, gradual recovery in 2025; eyes on equipment VBP We recently (Feb 24-28, 2025) hosted an investor field trip with several Chinese Healthcare companies. The discussions mainly focused on industry growth outlook and VBP impact. We believe China MedTech is likely bottoming-out with potential regional VBP risks around medical equipment, and see recovery starting in 2025. In this note, we discuss takeaways from meeting with our co ...