Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China Oriental Education (00667) has seen a significant increase in its stock price, rising over 5% to HKD 6.43, with a trading volume of HKD 12.4977 million [1] - The company anticipates that its net profit and adjusted net profit for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, will increase by no less than 46% but not more than 51% compared to the net profit of approximately RMB 513 million and adjusted net profit of approximately RMB 525 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024 [1] - Guosen Securities believes that the company's mature professional enrollment and profitability are showing strong recovery certainty, while its emerging programs are steadily being developed, which may replicate successful experiences to create new growth momentum [1] Group 2 - The firm projects that the company will achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 790 million, 1.1 billion, and 1.38 billion for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding growth rates of 53%, 39%, and 26% [1] - The adjustments in profit forecasts are primarily due to the later timing of the 2026 Spring Festival, which has led to an earlier layout for the 2025 Spring recruitment [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Oriental Education has released a positive profit forecast for 2025, expecting adjusted net profit to grow by no less than 46% and no more than 51%, amounting to between 767 million and 793 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a 6% increase in new training participants in 2025, driving revenue growth to between 12% and 46.1 billion yuan [1] - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to rise by 4.4 percentage points to 17.2% in 2025, with an adjusted net profit forecast of 793 million yuan [3] Group 2: Market Trends - The vocational skills training market is expected to see continued growth due to an increase in high school graduates not entering university, with the number of such graduates rising from 119,000 in 2021 to 386,000 in 2024 [2] - The company has launched long-term courses of approximately 15 months, resulting in new enrollment numbers increasing by over 81.1% year-on-year, contributing to a total new enrollment growth rate of 6% [2] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The company is focusing on refined management practices to enhance operational efficiency, including optimizing marketing expenditure and improving school capacity utilization [3] - Marketing expense ratio is projected to decrease by 2.5 percentage points to 21.2% in 2025, continuing the downward trend from the previous year [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditure is expected to decline by 33.6% to approximately 660 million yuan in 2025, as the company completes its vocational education center construction [4] - With a high dividend payout ratio, the expected dividend yield could reach 5.6% if the company maintains its 2024 payout ratio [4] Group 5: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards to 46.1 billion, 52.4 billion, and 60.1 billion yuan respectively, along with adjusted net profit estimates of 793 million, 1 billion, and 1.24 billion yuan [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - **Company**: China Oriental Education - **Industry**: Education Key Points Revenue Performance - For the full year 2025, the number of new students is expected to increase by 6% year-on-year, with revenue projected to grow by 12% to 4.63 billion yuan, exceeding the expected growth rate of 10% [1] - In the second half of 2025, revenue is anticipated to reach 2.444 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [1] - The revenue outperformance is primarily attributed to a rapid increase in the proportion of high-priced classes lasting 15 months, which has elevated the average transaction value [1] Profitability Expectations - The company forecasts a full-year net profit and adjusted net profit growth of 46%-51%, translating to a net profit range of approximately 749 million to 774 million yuan, with a median net profit margin of 16.45% [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be in the range of 766 million to 793 million yuan, with a median adjusted net profit margin of 16.83% [1] - For the second half of 2025, the net profit is projected to be 359 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.7% and a net profit margin of 14.7%, an increase of 3.37 percentage points year-on-year [1] Seasonal Impact - There is an acknowledgment of seasonal effects, with higher sales expenses and operating costs in the second half of the year compared to the first half [2] Strategic Initiatives - The spring recruitment is expected to accelerate growth, with overall spring recruitment fees increasing by approximately 20% year-on-year [3] - The company is diversifying its brand portfolio into beauty, pet care, and caregiving sectors, aligning with career development trends that are less likely to be replaced by AI and are experiencing robust growth [3] - A net profit target of 1 billion yuan is projected for 2026, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.2 times, with an assumed dividend payout of 80%, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 6.4% [3]

社会服务 上 市 公 司 2026 年 02 月 10 日 中国东方教育 (00667) —— 职教培训景气上行，运营效率持续提升 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 02 月 09 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 6.21 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9168.33 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 9.15/2.61 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 137.71 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 2,217.53 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8897 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -9% 91% 191% 291% 02/10 03/10 04/10 05/10 06/10 07/10 08/10 09/10 10/10 11/10 12/10 01/10 HSCEI 中国东方教育 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 - 职业技能培训景气提升，公司招生增长提速：大学低速扩招错配高中快速扩招，我们预计受高 考落榜生数量持续增加，高中毕业生职业技能培训市场将迎来持续景气提升。受 21 至 24 年 高中持续扩 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - China Oriental Education (00667) has a strong recovery in mature professional enrollment and profitability, with emerging programs steadily being developed to create new growth momentum [1] - The company is a leading vocational education group in China, with well-known brands such as New Oriental Cooking, Xinhua Computer, and Wantong Automotive Repair, covering four mature fields: culinary arts, western cuisine, information technology, and automotive services [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 790 million, 1.1 billion, and 1.38 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 53%, 39%, and 26% respectively [1] - The reasonable valuation for the company is estimated to be between 6.89 and 7.95 HKD per share, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - The vocational education industry in China is in a golden expansion phase, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 17% from 2025 to 2029, potentially exceeding 2 trillion yuan by 2029 [2] - The adjustment in the secondary vocational education sector has seen a decline in high school enrollment from 51% to 34% from 2010 to 2024, but there is a potential for a new balance as skilled talent demand remains strong [2] Group 4: Mature Programs - The company's proactive adjustments since 2024, including shutting down inefficient campuses and enhancing course structures, have led to a net profit margin of 19.0% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 5.0 percentage points [3] - The recovery in mature program enrollment has resulted in a 7% year-on-year increase in new training participants, with expectations of maintaining a 7-8% growth rate in new enrollments for 2026-2027 [3] Group 5: Emerging Programs - The beauty industry is projected to reach a market size of 380 billion yuan by 2025, with characteristics similar to the culinary sector, indicating potential for replicating past successes [4] - The company’s beauty brand achieved an average of 6,000 training participants in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024, with expectations for beauty revenue to reach 700 million yuan by 2027 [4] - The pet and wellness sectors are also identified as high-potential areas for long-term growth, with pilot programs already underway in the pet education field [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Oriental Education (00667) is experiencing a strong recovery in its mature professional enrollment and profitability, while steadily expanding into emerging fields, which is expected to create new growth momentum [1] - The company is a leading vocational education group in China, with a diverse portfolio including well-known brands such as New Oriental Cooking, Xinhua Computer, and Wantong Automotive Repair, and has been operating in the vocational education sector for nearly 40 years [1] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 790 million, 1.1 billion, and 1.38 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 53%, 39%, and 26% respectively [1] Group 2 - The vocational education industry in China is in a golden expansion phase, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 17% from 2025 to 2029, potentially exceeding 2 trillion yuan by 2029 [2] - The company has actively adjusted its operations since 2024, including shutting down inefficient campuses and upgrading course structures, which has led to an increase in net profit margin to 19% in the first half of 2025, with expectations of approaching 24% [3] - Emerging fields such as beauty, pet care, and health management are expected to become new growth drivers, with the beauty market projected to reach 380 billion yuan by 2025 [4]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a slight recovery with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.54% to 27,172.87 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.84% to 5,463.17 points, and the National Enterprises Index up by 0.78% to 9,239.54 points, while the Red Chip Index fell by 0.1% to 4,391.08 points [1] Company Dynamics - Pop Mart (09992.HK) expects global sales of over 400 million units across all IP categories by 2025, with THE MONSTERS category alone projected to exceed 100 million units [2] - Youjia Innovation (02431.HK) has secured a contract with a leading domestic automotive brand to provide advanced driving assistance controllers and driver monitoring systems for several key models [2] - Ruifeng New Energy (00527.HK) signed an investment framework agreement to build the largest inference computing cluster park in North China, with a total investment of approximately RMB 24 billion [2] - Xian Dao Intelligent (00470.HK) set its H-share offering price at HKD 45.80 per share, with the adjustment rights fully exercised [3] - Hong Kong Telecom (06823.HK) reported a 5% year-on-year increase in total revenue to HKD 36.553 billion for 2025, with EBITDA rising 4% to HKD 14.234 billion, and attributable profit increasing 4% to HKD 5.286 billion, driven by stable operations and effective cost control [3] - China Nuclear International (02302.HK) issued a positive profit alert, expecting revenue for 2025 to exceed approximately HKD 2.46 billion, with gross profit expected to be at least HKD 260 million, primarily due to increased uranium trading volumes [3][6] - Mingyuan Cloud (00909.HK) anticipates a net profit of approximately HKD 26.9 million to HKD 32.8 million for 2025, representing a turnaround and growth of about 114% to 117%, attributed to improved operational efficiency [3] - Yingda Real Estate (00432.HK) reported a net loss of HKD 69 million for 2025, a 70% reduction year-on-year [4] - China Oriental Education (00667.HK) expects a 46% to 51% increase in net profit for 2025 [5] - Carrot (02549.HK) issued a profit warning, projecting a 25% to 35% decrease in profit for 2025 [7] - Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) repurchased 1.5 million shares for HKD 52.7268 million at prices between HKD 35.04 and HKD 35.24 [8] - Geely Automobile (00175.HK) repurchased 1.408 million shares for HKD 23.4587 million at prices between HKD 16.46 and HKD 16.81 [8] Institutional Insights - GF Securities noted that the Hang Seng Index has an 82% probability of rising in the three trading days before the Spring Festival, with no significant calendar effects post-holiday, indicating a potential "passive follow" increase due to stronger correlation with A-shares [9] - Everbright Securities highlighted a market environment of "moderate fundamental recovery and synchronized liquidity," recommending a "growth + value" strategy focusing on AI, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and insurance [10] - Dongfang Caifu Securities pointed out that Hong Kong stocks are at historical low valuations (Hang Seng Index PE at only 12 times), making southbound capital attractive for bottom-fishing, with short-term sentiment boosted by this capital [10]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - **Company**: 华西教育 (China Oriental Education) - **Industry**: Education Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - The company announced a projected net profit growth of 46-51% for the fiscal year 2025, translating to an adjusted net profit of approximately 767-793 million, with a midpoint estimate of 780 million, aligning with recent market expectations [1] - The difference from the previous estimate of 800 million is attributed to non-operational factors such as government subsidies and land returns, which do not impact the performance expectations for 2026 [1] Stock Price Adjustments - Recent fluctuations in the company's stock price were primarily due to several factors: - Decline in adult short training programs - Shareholder sell-offs and concerns regarding overseas real estate investments - Issues related to a "fake expert" incident - Worries about goodwill impairment at the Metallurgical Technician College - Non-operational impacts, all of which have been clarified or resolved [1] Recruitment and Revenue Growth - For the spring recruitment of 2026, the company anticipates an increase in recruitment numbers by 5-10% and a revenue increase of 20%, attributed to proactive measures taken by the company to mitigate the impact of a 19-day shorter recruitment period compared to previous years [1] Long-term Growth Logic - The company is projected to have a 12x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 and a dividend yield of 5.1%, with continued recommendations for investment based on: 1. High certainty in performance over the next three years, with enrollment growth rates expected to improve from -7% in 2024 to +5% in 2025, driven by reduced competition from public institutions and the counter-cyclical nature of blue-collar education [2] 2. Contribution from high-priced professional programs over 15 months, combined with high operating leverage leading to improved capacity utilization and higher profit growth [2] 3. Potential for exceeding dividend expectations [2] 4. Long-term profitability projections include a 10 percentage point increase in capacity utilization to 85% next year, with expectations of adding at least 10,000 students across six regional centers outside Anhui and an additional 20,000 in beauty services, projecting a profit of 1.8-1.9 billion, excluding pet and nursing sectors [2] Additional Important Insights - The company has effectively addressed concerns that could have negatively impacted investor sentiment, indicating a proactive management approach [1] - The anticipated growth in recruitment and revenue suggests a positive outlook for the company's operational performance in the near future [1][2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on February 10, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.65% to 27,202.96 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.82% to 5,461.96 points, and the National Enterprises Index increasing by 0.64% to 9,226.56 points [1] - Major technology stocks saw gains, with Alibaba up 1.14%, Tencent Holdings up 0.54%, JD Group up 1.2%, Xiaomi up 0.85%, NetEase up 2.35%, and Kuaishou up 1.01% [1] - The new consumption concept stocks showed mixed results, with Pop Mart rising over 2% and Weilon falling over 2% [1] Corporate News - Pop Mart (09992.HK) expects global sales of all IP products to exceed 400 million units by 2025, with THE MONSTERS product line projected to sell over 100 million units [2] - Youjia Innovation (02431.HK) has secured a contract with a leading domestic automotive brand to provide several key products, including the iPilot 4 Plus driving controller and driver monitoring systems [2] - Ruifeng New Energy (00527.HK) signed an investment framework agreement to build the largest inference computing cluster park in North China, with a total investment of approximately RMB 240 billion [2] Earnings Forecasts - Hong Kong Telecom (06823.HK) reported a 5% increase in total revenue to HKD 36.553 billion for 2025, with EBITDA growing by 4% to HKD 14.234 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 4% to HKD 5.286 billion [4] - China Nuclear International (02302.HK) anticipates revenue for 2025 to exceed HKD 2.46 billion, with gross profit expected to reach at least HKD 260 million, driven by increased uranium trading volumes [4][6] - Mingyuan Cloud (00909.HK) expects a net profit of approximately HKD 26.9 million to HKD 32.8 million for 2025, representing a growth of about 114% to 117% [4] - China Oriental Education (00667.HK) forecasts a 46% to 51% increase in net profit for 2025 [5] Market Dynamics - Several companies are actively repurchasing shares to boost market confidence, including Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK), which repurchased 1.5 million shares for HKD 52.7268 million, and Geely Automobile (00175.HK), which repurchased 1.408 million shares for HKD 23.4587 million [8] - China Smart Energy (01004.HK) announced a share consolidation effective February 10, pending approval from the Stock Exchange [8] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities noted a significant "Spring Festival effect" in the Hong Kong market, with optimistic market sentiment and early capital positioning [10] - Dongwu Securities indicated that while short-term challenges remain, the market should be monitored for overseas risks and domestic AI catalysts [10] - Bank of China International believes that after the recent negative factors have subsided, market sentiment is at a low point, with potential rebounds in the AI multi-modal industry chain [10]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 中国东方教育（00667.HK） 优于大市 模式升级固本培元，职教龙头弄潮服务消费新风口 深耕职教近四十年，多品牌构筑技能培训版图。中国东方教育是国内领先的 职业技能教育集团，旗下布局新东方烹饪、新华电脑、万通汽修等知名品牌。 2019 年在港股上市。公司覆盖烹饪技术、西点西餐、信息及互联网技术、汽 车服务四大成熟专业，并积极布局美业、宠物、康养等新兴专业。 技能培训行业：职教万亿扩容，中职调整寻机。我国职业教育行业处于万亿 扩容黄金期，受政策持续加码与产业需求拉动双轮驱动，2025-2029 年预计 维持 17%复合增速，2029 年市场规模有望突破 2 万亿元。此前中职赛道经历 数年调整，2010-2024 年在高中招生占比从 51%下滑至 34%，但考虑中级技能 人才产业刚需、部分普高适配度较低学生回流，后续普高比有望寻找新平衡。 成熟专业：疫后盈利能力率先修复，收入后提速打开利润增长空间。2024 年以来公司积极调整，关停并转低效校区、推进五省职教产业园建设、升级 课程结构，带动 2025H1 公司经调净利率 19.0%/+5.0pct；预计伴随更多职教 园区 ...