Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Overseas Development, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2][6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit during the current period, attributed to project turnover timing and the structural impact of high land prices and low-margin projects [4]. - Despite the challenges, the company demonstrated strong sales resilience, outperforming the top 10 real estate companies in terms of sales decline [4]. - The company is focusing its investments on first and second-tier cities, maintaining a strong land acquisition strategy [4]. - Financially, the company remains robust with low net debt ratios and financing costs, positioning it well for future recovery [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 180,322 million RMB, with a projected revenue of 202,524 million RMB for 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 12.31% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 23,265 million RMB, with a forecasted net profit of 25,610 million RMB for 2023, indicating a growth rate of 10.08% [3]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 2.13 RMB, expected to be 2.34 RMB in 2023 [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 5.39 for 2023, indicating a favorable valuation [3]. Sales and Market Position - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved sales of 198.848 billion RMB, a decline of 16.8% year-on-year, while the top 10 real estate companies saw a decline of 32.5% [4]. - The company ranked second among the top 100 real estate companies in terms of sales, improving its position from the previous year [4]. Land Acquisition Strategy - In the first nine months of 2024, the company acquired land in 9 cities with a total investment of 20.3 billion RMB, focusing heavily on first and second-tier cities [4]. - The equity acquisition amount reached 18.6 billion RMB, with an equity ratio of 91.5% [4]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a slight decrease in net profit for 2024 to 24.252 billion RMB, with expected growth rates of 7.2% and 4.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E valuation of 6.0x for 2024, indicating potential for future appreciation [4].

Financial Performance - In the first nine months of 2024, the group achieved contract property sales of RMB 198.85 billion, with a corresponding sales area of 7.63 million square meters[3]. - In Q3 2024, the group recorded revenue of RMB 22.65 billion and operating profit of RMB 2.13 billion[4]. - As of September 30, 2024, the group's revenue for the first nine months was RMB 109.58 billion, with an operating profit of RMB 18.18 billion[4]. - The group maintains a strong financial position with a net gearing ratio and financing costs at the lowest range in the industry[4]. Market Conditions - The real estate market remains sluggish, but the group is confident in maintaining competitive advantages and sustainable high-quality development amid industry challenges[2]. - The Chinese economy is showing overall stability, but social demand remains insufficient, impacting the real estate market[1]. - The central government has introduced a series of economic and real estate stimulus policies to stabilize the market, including interest rate cuts and down payment reductions[1]. Strategic Development - The group acquired six new land parcels in six cities in mainland China during Q3 2024, with a total land reserve area of 730,000 square meters and total land cost of RMB 7.39 billion[3]. - The group is focused on strategic development and financial stability during the industry's downturn[2]. - The group emphasizes the importance of not overly relying on forward-looking statements due to inherent risks and uncertainties[5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, projecting revenue growth for 2024 and 2025 at 0.8% and 0.9% respectively, while core net profit is expected to decrease by 4.0% in 2024 and increase by 3.2% in 2025 [2][3][13]. Core Insights - The company's mid-year performance for 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 86.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. Revenue from real estate development and commercial property operations was 82.04 billion yuan and 3.54 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.2% and an increase of 19.8% respectively [5][9]. - The company faced pressure on sales, with contract sales amounting to 148.38 billion yuan and an area of 5.44 million square meters, representing declines of 17.6% and 32.3% year-on-year. The company has been cautious in land acquisition, adding only 6 plots of land in the first half of 2024, with a total land reserve area of 3.322 million square meters [9][11]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with a net debt ratio of 38.7%, which is low compared to industry standards. The average financing cost has decreased to 3.50%, and the company holds over 100 billion yuan in cash reserves [11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a core net profit of 10.64 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year, and a mid-year dividend of 0.30 HKD per share, a decrease of 14.3% [5][6][9]. - The gross margin and core net profit margin for the first half of 2024 were 22.1% and 12.2%, respectively, both showing slight declines but remaining at a high industry level [7][11]. Revenue Projections - The projected revenue for 2024 and 2025 is 204.1 billion yuan and 206 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 0.8% and 0.9% [4][13]. - Core net profit projections for 2024 and 2025 are 22.7 billion yuan and 23.4 billion yuan, with a decrease of 4.0% in 2024 followed by a growth of 3.2% in 2025 [4][13]. Land Acquisition and Sales - The company has been cautious in land acquisition, with new land purchases accounting for only 9% of sales in the first half of 2024. The total land reserve continues to be depleted, with a total of 3.322 million square meters as of June 30, 2024 [9][11].

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved contracted property sales of RMB 148.38 billion, with a domestic market share increase of 0.49 percentage points to 3.15%[16] - The company's revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 86.94 billion, with a profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 10.31 billion[16] - The core profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 10.64 billion, and total equity attributable to shareholders was RMB 378.54 billion[16] - The operating profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 16,058.5 million, a decrease from RMB 19,070.4 million in the same period of 2023, representing a decline of approximately 15.8%[42] - The net profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 11,526.8 million, down from RMB 14,211.4 million in the first half of 2023, reflecting a decrease of about 18.9%[43] - The total comprehensive income for the first half of 2024 was RMB 11,088.4 million, compared to RMB 14,134.1 million in the same period of 2023, marking a decrease of approximately 21.5%[43] - Profit attributable to shareholders for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 10,313,630, down from RMB 13,489,777 in the same period of 2023, representing a decline of approximately 23.8%[74] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.30 per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024[16] - The interim dividend declared for the six months ended June 30, 2024, is RMB 2,971,536,000, with a per share dividend of HKD 0.30, compared to RMB 3,983,938 for the same period in 2023[76] - The interim dividend for the six months ending June 30, 2024, is declared at HKD 0.30 per share, down from HKD 0.35 per share in 2023[103] Market Position and Strategy - The company focused on first-tier cities, achieving sales contract amounts of RMB 74.4 billion in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, accounting for 62.7% of total sales[16] - The company’s strategy emphasizes resilience in a declining market, focusing on high-end products for improvement-oriented customers[16] - The group aims to leverage the resilience of the Chinese economy and structural opportunities in the housing market to maintain sustainable high-quality development[18] Credit Ratings and Financial Stability - Standard & Poor's upgraded the company's credit rating from BBB+/Stable to A-/Stable, making it the only Chinese real estate company with a double A international credit rating[16] - The group maintained a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.1% and a net gearing ratio of 38.7% as of June 30, 2024[17] - The average financing cost for the group was 3.5%, which is among the lowest in the industry[17] - The group has successfully reduced its non-RMB net debt exposure by repaying RMB 16.33 billion in foreign currency loans during the period[32] Land Acquisition and Development - The total land reserve increased by 6 plots with a total acquisition cost of RMB 12.89 billion and a total value of RMB 27.99 billion[17] - The group acquired 6 new land plots in 4 cities, with a total land area of 1.17 million square meters and a total land cost of RMB 12.89 billion[26] - The total building area of land reserves for the group as of June 30, 2024, is 33.22 million square meters, with an equity building area of 28.86 million square meters[27] Commercial Property Performance - The group's commercial property revenue for the first half of the year reached RMB 3.54 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.8%[17] - The shopping center business saw a significant revenue increase of 57.6% year-on-year, with an occupancy rate of 96.6% at the end of the period[29] - Segment profit for the commercial property operations increased to RMB 3,803,813 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024[66] Cash Flow and Financial Management - The group achieved sales collection of RMB 90.82 billion during the period, with operational cash inflow totaling RMB 97.69 billion[32] - The group’s total borrowings as of June 30, 2024, amount to RMB 255.57 billion, with RMB 39.67 billion due within one year, accounting for 15.5% of total borrowings[32] - The company’s cash balance as of June 30, 2024, after accounting for restricted bank deposits, was RMB 100,237,072 thousand, down from RMB 114,213,708 thousand in the previous year[50] ESG and Sustainability Initiatives - The company has been recognized for its ESG management, being included in the Hang Seng Sustainable Development Index series for 14 consecutive years and the FTSE4Good Index for eight consecutive years[36] - The company plans to reduce carbon emissions intensity by over 30% by 2030, based on 2019 levels, as part of its commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060[37] - The company has implemented a comprehensive climate adaptation strategy, including mitigation, control, transfer, and acceptance measures, to address climate change challenges[37] Employee and Corporate Governance - The company maintained a 100% coverage rate for employee health checks and supplementary medical insurance plans[41] - The average training hours per employee were 47 hours, indicating a commitment to employee development[41] - The company has complied with the corporate governance code as per the listing rules during the six months ending June 30, 2024[120] Share Options and Management Compensation - The company granted stock options under its stock option plan, totaling 107,320,000 shares at an exercise price of HKD 25.85, with vesting conditions over three years[86] - The company’s directors and key management personnel received total compensation of RMB 13,754,000 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 14,325,000 in the previous period[102] - The total number of share options held by employees and related entities as of June 30, 2024, was 76,623,000 after accounting for cancellations[109]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 18.2 HKD, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 11.46 HKD [2][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 148.4 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, ranking first in equity sales [1]. - The company maintains a leading profit margin in the industry, with an overall gross margin of 22.1% and a core net profit of 10.64 billion RMB, despite a year-on-year decline of 23.0% [1]. - The company has a strong land reserve, with a total land bank of approximately 49.05 million square meters, ensuring future performance stability [1]. Summary by Sections Sales and Profitability - The company reported a contract sales area of approximately 5.44 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 32.3%, while the contract average price increased by 21.7% to 27,279 RMB per square meter [1]. - The overall market share increased by 0.49 percentage points to 3.15%, with a focus on mainstream cities and prime locations [1]. Financial Performance - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.30 HKD per share, with a payout ratio increasing by 4 percentage points to 28.3% [1]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at approximately 56.1%, with a net debt ratio of about 38.7% and an average financing cost of around 3.5% [1]. Commercial Operations - The commercial operations revenue grew by 20.0% year-on-year to 3.54 billion RMB, with first-tier cities contributing 42% of this revenue [1]. - The shopping center business showed significant growth, with a rental rate of 96.6% and a year-on-year revenue increase of 57.6% to 1.11 billion RMB [1]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve core net profits of 22.3 billion RMB, 22.9 billion RMB, and 23.6 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Overseas Development (00688.HK) with a target price of HKD 18, compared to the current price of HKD 12.38 [1]. Core Views - The company's sales performance is supported by high-end improvement projects, while land reserves are being cautiously replenished. The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 is reported at 22.1%, with a core net profit margin of 12.2% [1]. - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 86.9 billion in the first half of 2024, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of RMB 10.3 billion, down 23.5% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights that the company has a sold but unrecognized revenue amounting to RMB 210.9 billion, which has increased by 13.5% compared to the end of 2023, ensuring a solid revenue recognition for 2024 [1]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company sold 5.44 million square meters, a decline of 32.3% year-on-year, with a sales amount of RMB 148.4 billion, down 17.6% year-on-year. The average contract sales price increased by 21.7% to RMB 27,279 per square meter [1]. - The sales in core cities, particularly high-end improvement projects, contributed significantly, with first-tier cities accounting for 62.7% of total sales [1]. Land Acquisition - The company has been cautious in land acquisition, securing only 6 plots of land in the first half of 2024, with a total land cost of RMB 12 billion and an investment intensity of approximately 8.1% [1]. - As of June 30, 2024, the total land reserve area is approximately 33.22 million square meters, with an equity area of 28.86 million square meters [1]. Commercial Operations - The commercial operation revenue grew by 20% year-on-year, with shopping center revenue increasing by 57.6%. The total commercial operation area is 8.71 million square meters, with 85% being self-owned assets [1]. - The shopping center occupancy rate reached 96.6%, with sales and foot traffic increasing by 30% and 28% year-on-year, respectively [1]. Financial Stability - The company maintains a stable cash flow with a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.1% and cash reserves of RMB 100.2 billion as of June 30, 2024. The average financing cost for the first half of 2024 is reported at 3.5% [1]. - The report projects revenues for 2024-2026 to be RMB 217.6 billion, RMB 228.9 billion, and RMB 242.5 billion, with net profits of RMB 27.3 billion, RMB 29.1 billion, and RMB 31.2 billion, respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][15]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong financial performance with a leading profit scale and an increased dividend payout ratio. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a main business revenue of 86.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.31 billion yuan, with a core net profit of 10.64 billion yuan. The board announced an interim dividend of 0.30 HKD per share, increasing the payout ratio by 4 percentage points to 28.3% [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a main business revenue of 86.94 billion yuan, with real estate development revenue at 82.04 billion yuan (down 3.24% year-on-year), commercial property operation revenue at 3.54 billion yuan (up 19.78% year-on-year), and other business revenue at 1.36 billion yuan (down 4.08% year-on-year). The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.31 billion yuan, with a core net profit of 10.64 billion yuan [6][8]. Sales Performance - The company achieved a contracted property sales amount of 148.38 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 17.65%. The sales floor area was 5.44 million square meters, down 32.34% year-on-year. In first-tier and strong second-tier cities, the company realized contracted sales of 107.5 billion yuan, accounting for 83% of the total [8][11]. Land Acquisition and Investment - In the first half of 2024, the company acquired 6 plots of land with a total construction area of 1.17 million square meters and a total land price of 12.89 billion yuan. The investment in first-tier cities accounted for 67% of the total land acquisition amount [11][12]. Commercial Operations - The company reported commercial property revenue of 3.54 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%. The revenue from office buildings was 1.76 billion yuan, shopping centers contributed 1.11 billion yuan, long-term rental apartments generated 120 million yuan, and hotels and other commercial properties brought in 550 million yuan [12][13]. Financial Stability - As of the end of the first half of 2024, the company had a net current asset value of 376.08 billion yuan, a current ratio of 2.4 times, and a net debt ratio of 38.7%. The average financing cost was 3.5%, among the lowest in the industry. The company’s credit rating was upgraded from BBB+/Stable to A-/Stable by S&P Global [13][14].

优势显著，逆势领跑——中国海外发展 24 年中期业绩点评 事件：公司发布 2024 年中期业绩公告，公司 24H1 实现营业收入 869.4 亿元，同 比-2.49%；归母净利润 103.1 亿元，同比-23.6%；每股基本收益 0.94 元/股，同 比-23.6%；拟派发中期股息每股 30 港仙。 利润受行业波动下滑，分红比例提升 公司 24H1 实现营业收入 869.4 亿元，同比-2.49%；归母净利润 103.1 亿元，同 比-23.6%，收入维持高位，利润受行业波动有所回落。公司 24H1 毛利率 22.1%， 较 23 年同期下降 0.5pct；归母净利率 11.9%,较 23 年同期下降 3.2pct；24 年上半 年继续保持经营性现金净流入。董事局建议派发中期股息每股港币 30 仙，分红比例 28%，较 23 年同期上升 2.4pct，积极回馈股东。 销售韧性良好，拿地审慎度提升 销售端，24H1 公司合约销售额 1483.8 亿元，同比-17.7%；销售面积 544 万平， 同比-32.3%，市占率较 23 年末提升 0.49pct 达 3.15%。根据中指院数据，24H1 集团系列公司权益 ...

2024 年 08 月 29 日 中国海外发展 (00688) ——业绩有所下行，销售、拿地聚焦一二线 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持）投资要点： ⚫ 24H1 营收同比-2.5%，归母净利润同比-24%，低于预期，分红率提升。2024H1，公司 营收 869 亿元，同比-2.5%；归母净利润 103.1 亿元，同比-23.5%，低于市场预期；核心 归母净利润 106.4 亿元，同比-23.0%；基本每股收益 0.94 元，同比-23.5%；毛利率和归 母净利率分别为 22.1%和 11.9%，同比分别-0.5pct 和-3.3pct。销售及管理费用率仅 3.9%， 同比+0.1pct。公司业绩下降，主要源于：1）公司结转规模有所下降，以及结转毛利率下 降；2）少数股东损益 12.1 亿元，同比+68%；3）投资物业公允价值变动收益 0.1 亿元， 23 年同期为 23.2 亿元。至 24H1 末，公司已售未结转金额 2,541 亿元，较 23 年末+7.1%， 已售未结转金额可覆盖 23 年营收 1.25 倍，助力公司后续业绩稳定。此外，公司拟每股派 中期股息 30 港仙，占比核心归母净利润 28 ...

中国海外发展（00688.HK） 优于大市 聚焦核心城市，经营保持稳健 归母净利润下降 23.5%。2024 上半年公司实现营业收入 869 亿元，同比下降 2.5%；归母净利润 103 亿元，同比下降 23.5%；剔除汇兑损益和物业重估价 值等后的核心净利润 106 亿元，同比下降 23%。公司归母净利润下滑的原因 主要为投资物业公允价值变动收益减少及合联营公司投资收益减少。公司宣 布派发中期股息每股港币 30 港仙。 销售均价逆势增长，聚焦核心城市。2024 上半年公司实现销售金额 1484 亿 元，同比下降 17.6%，全年权益销售额排名行业第一；实现销售面积 544 万 平方米，同比下降 32.3%。公司销售表现持续跑赢行业，整体市场占有率提 高0.49pct至3.15%。上半年公司销售均价27279元/平方米，同比增长21.7%， 其中一线城市大项目引领市场，贡献突出，上海顺昌玖里、领邸玖序、深圳 深湾玖序、北京京华玖序、广州中海大境开盘热销，引发市场轰动。公司聚 焦优势城市，一线和强二线城市实现销售 1075 亿元，占总销售额的 83%。公 司聚焦核心，精准投资，2024 上半年新增土地投资 6 ...