Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 澳博控股 (880 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 4.70, corresponding to a 2025 EV/EBITDA of 10x [2][7]. Core Insights - The performance of 上葡京 has shown improvement, with EBITDA turning positive since Q4 2023, and market share increasing from 1.3% in H1 2023 to 2.1% in H1 2024. The adjusted property EBITDA margin is also gradually increasing [2][4]. - The company has strategically developed popular dining and entertainment experiences, collaborating with Hong Kong TVB to create programs targeting Greater Bay Area travelers, which has resulted in significant promotional effects [3][4]. - The report indicates that the valuation is now above pre-pandemic levels, with the average EV/EBITDA from 2016-2019 being 8.9x, while the industry average was 13-14x during that period [4]. Financial Projections - For the fiscal year 2024, the projected revenue is HKD 28,883 million, with a year-on-year growth of 33.58% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be HKD 520.03 million in 2024, a significant recovery from a loss of HKD 2,010 million in 2023 [6][12]. - The EBITDA is projected to reach HKD 3,755 million in 2024, with a further increase to HKD 4,764 million in 2025 [12]. Market Trends - During the recent National Day holiday, Macau's gaming industry saw a resurgence, with visitor numbers reaching 99 million, recovering to 119% of 2019 levels, and daily gaming revenue approaching pre-pandemic figures [5]. - The report highlights that the strategy of inviting high-profile performers has shifted, aiming to attract high-spending customers, which is expected to positively impact gaming revenue [5].

Financial Performance - Group's total net revenue increased by 47.4% to HKD 13.801 billion in the first half of 2024 compared to HKD 9.362 billion in the same period in 2023[3][7] - Gaming net revenue rose by 48.3% to HKD 12.897 billion in H1 2024 from HKD 8.695 billion in H1 2023[3][7] - Adjusted EBITDA surged by 275.9% to HKD 1.734 billion in H1 2024 compared to HKD 461 million in H1 2023[3][7] - The company's attributable loss narrowed to HKD 162 million in H1 2024 from HKD 1.264 billion in H1 2023[3][7] - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was HKD 13,801.3 million, a significant increase from HKD 9,361.6 million in the same period in 2023[27] - Gaming revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was HKD 12,897.0 million, compared to HKD 8,695.1 million in the same period in 2023[27] - The company reported a net loss of HKD 108.6 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, a significant improvement from a net loss of HKD 1,196.9 million in the same period in 2023[27] - Net loss for the period amounted to HKD 108.6 million, compared to a net loss of HKD 1,196.9 million in the same period last year[33] - Total comprehensive loss for the period was HKD 114.4 million, a significant improvement from HKD 1,234.6 million in the previous year[33] - Pre-tax loss narrowed to HKD 85.2 million in the first half of 2024, significantly improved from a pre-tax loss of HKD 1,196.9 million in the same period in 2023[44] - The company reported a pre-tax loss of HKD 162.4 million in 2024, compared to a pre-tax loss of HKD 1,264.1 million in 2023[59] - The basic and diluted loss per share improved to HKD 2.3 cents in 2024 from HKD 17.8 cents in 2023[60] Property Performance - Grand Lisboa Palace's gross revenue reached HKD 2.956 billion, with gaming revenue of HKD 2.325 billion and non-gaming revenue of HKD 631 million in H1 2024[4] - Grand Lisboa's gross revenue stood at HKD 3.8 billion, including HKD 3.66 billion from gaming and HKD 140 million from non-gaming in H1 2024[4] - Occupancy rate at Grand Lisboa Palace increased by 10.9% to 94.8% in H1 2024, while average daily rate decreased by 15.1% to HKD 1,155[4] - Grand Lisboa Hotel's occupancy rate rose by 10.7% to 98.5% in H1 2024, with average daily rate increasing by 19.5% to HKD 1,226[4] - Revenue from the Grand Lisboa Palace increased by 106.7% to HKD 2,956 million, with casino gross gaming revenue up 124.9% to HKD 2,325 million[10] - Adjusted property EBITDA for the Grand Lisboa Palace improved significantly to HKD 192 million, compared to a loss of HKD 292 million in the previous year[10] - Non-rolling chip win amount at the Grand Lisboa Palace surged by 166.2% to HKD 1,363 million, with a win rate increase of 1.7 percentage points to 17.3%[10] - The Lisboa property saw a 58.1% increase in total revenue to HKD 3,800 million, driven by a 61.5% rise in casino gross gaming revenue[12] - Adjusted property EBITDA for the Lisboa property more than doubled, increasing by 113.5% to HKD 1,010 million[12] - The Sofitel Macau at Ponte 16 reported a 20.3% increase in total revenue to HKD 2,655 million, with casino gross gaming revenue up 21.6%[14] - Satellite casinos generated HKD 5,285 million in casino revenue, a 39.0% increase from the previous year, with adjusted property EBITDA improving by 86.1%[15] Liquidity and Financial Position - The group held HKD 3.433 billion in cash, bank balances, short-term bank deposits, and pledged bank deposits as of June 30, 2024[4] - The group's syndicated loan facility includes HKD 9 billion in term loans and HKD 10 billion in revolving credit, with HKD 4.1 billion undrawn as of June 30, 2024[4] - Bank balances and cash decreased by 31.6% to HKD 2.424 billion as of June 30, 2024, compared to HKD 3.542 billion at the end of 2023[19] - Total outstanding bank loans decreased to HKD 14.012 billion as of June 30, 2024, from HKD 15.236 billion at the end of 2023[19] - Asset-to-liability ratio stood at 52.4% as of June 30, 2024, slightly up from 52.2% at the end of 2023[20] - Committed capital expenditure obligations increased to HKD 744 million as of June 30, 2024, from HKD 427 million at the end of 2023, with HKD 587 million allocated for government bidding projects[20] - Mortgaged properties and equipment with a book value of HKD 33.565 billion and right-of-use assets of HKD 1.689 billion as of June 30, 2024[21] - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, were HKD 44,999.6 million, slightly decreased from HKD 45,305.9 million as of December 31, 2023[29] - Total liabilities as of June 30, 2024, were HKD 29,148.4 million, decreased from HKD 30,379.0 million as of December 31, 2023[30] - The company's net asset value as of June 30, 2024, was HKD 13,969.8 million, slightly decreased from HKD 14,085.2 million as of December 31, 2023[30] - The company's equity attributable to owners of the company as of June 30, 2024, was HKD 13,767.4 million, slightly decreased from HKD 13,935.6 million as of December 31, 2023[30] - The company has unutilized bank financing facilities of HKD 4.05 billion as of June 30, 2024[37] - Current liabilities exceeded current assets by approximately HKD 1.881 billion as of June 30, 2024[37] - Capital commitments of the group amounted to HKD 744 million as of June 30, 2024[37] - The company's directors believe the group has sufficient liquidity to meet its financial obligations for the next 12 months[37] - Total assets of the group decreased slightly to HKD 48,328.3 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to HKD 49,739.7 million as of December 31, 2023[50] - Total liabilities of the group decreased to HKD 34,358.5 million as of June 30, 2024, from HKD 35,654.5 million as of December 31, 2023[50] - The gaming business segment assets stood at HKD 35,211.9 million as of June 30, 2024, slightly down from HKD 35,996.7 million as of December 31, 2023[50] - The hotel, catering, retail, and leasing business segment assets were HKD 10,036.2 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to HKD 10,298.7 million as of December 31, 2023[50] - Bank loans for the gaming business decreased to HKD 13,852.6 million as of June 30, 2024, from HKD 15,056.7 million as of December 31, 2023[50] - Unsecured notes for the gaming business remained relatively stable at HKD 9,420.1 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to HKD 9,413.7 million as of December 31, 2023[50] - Property and equipment decreased to HKD 37,806.1 million in 2024 from HKD 38,353.9 million in 2023, with a notable decrease in the value of leased land and buildings[62] - The company's right-of-use assets decreased slightly to HKD 2,561.4 million in 2024 from HKD 2,483.5 million in 2023[62] - Deposits for property and equipment purchases increased to HKD 550.6 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to HKD 317.7 million as of December 31, 2023[65] - The company's pledged bank deposits for bank facilities amounted to HKD 970.9 million as of June 30, 2024[67] - The interest rates on pledged bank deposits ranged from 4.00% to 4.10% as of June 30, 2024[68] - Advances to a gaming promoter and customers decreased to HKD 27.2 million as of June 30, 2024, from HKD 38.0 million as of December 31, 2023[69] - The total overdue amount of advances to gaming customers was HKD 7.7 million as of June 30, 2024, with HKD 0.8 million overdue for 90 days or more[69] - Prepayments increased to HKD 250.2 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to HKD 179.5 million as of December 31, 2023[69] - Other receivables from related parties amounted to HKD 202.7 million as of June 30, 2024, up from HKD 173.1 million as of December 31, 2023[74] - No additional impairment provisions or reversals were made for advances to a gaming intermediary and customers, other receivables from a service provider, and lease receivables for the six months ended June 30, 2023, and June 30, 2024[75] - Trade payables decreased to HKD 326.5 million as of June 30, 2024, from HKD 348.6 million as of December 31, 2023[76] - The average credit period for trade payables is 90 days, with no interest charged on overdue amounts[79] - The company's bank loans include syndicated secured bank loans totaling HKD 14,012.0 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to HKD 15,235.9 million as of December 31, 2023[81] - The Grand Lisboa Palace secured bank loan amounted to HKD 13,852.6 million as of June 30, 2024, down from HKD 15,056.7 million as of December 31, 2023[82] - The company recorded a loss of HKD 16.1 million due to the modification of the Grand Lisboa Palace bank loan repayment plan for the six months ended June 30, 2024[84] - The secured syndicated bank loan for the Grand Lisboa Palace project carries an effective annual interest rate of 6.36% as of June 30, 2024, down from 7.33% as of December 31, 2023[84] - The Grand Lisboa Palace bank loan is secured by non-gaming properties and equipment with a carrying value of HKD 33.184 billion and right-of-use assets with a carrying value of HKD 1.637 billion as of June 30, 2024[84] - The company revised the financing agreement for the Sixteen Pu Bank loan, extending the maturity date to June 2025 with a revised limit of MOP 273 million and HKD 230 million[85] - The actual annual interest rate for the secured bank loan as of June 30, 2024, was 7.15%, down from 8.09% at the end of 2023[85] - The company issued unsecured notes totaling HKD 9.42 billion as of June 30, 2024, with proceeds used for refinancing syndicated secured bank loans and general working capital[86] - The company's subsidiary issued HKD 1.906 billion in convertible bonds at a 2% interest rate, with the option to convert into ordinary shares at HKD 3.78 per share[92] - The company's operating cash flow before working capital changes was HKD 1.7857 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to HKD 534.2 million in the same period in 2023[95] - The company's net cash from operating activities was HKD 1.6426 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, slightly down from HKD 1.7375 billion in the same period in 2023[95] - The company's total issued and fully paid ordinary shares as of June 30, 2024, were 7,101,805,366, with a total value of HKD 14.4151 billion[94] - The company's final holding company loan amounted to HKD 2 billion, with a fixed annual interest rate of 4%, and is classified as a non-current liability[89] - The company's subsidiary's non-controlling interest payable was HKD 329 million as of June 30, 2024, with an estimated interest of HKD 4.3 million at an annual rate of 2.57%[88] - The company's convertible bonds had a liability portion of HKD 1.528 billion and an equity portion of HKD 574.7 million as of June 30, 2024[93] - The company issued $500 million 4.50% senior notes due 2026, $500 million 4.85% senior notes due 2028, HK$1.25 billion 3.9% senior notes due 2026, and MOP 300 million 3.9% senior notes due 2026 through its subsidiaries Champion Path and Champion Moments Limited[146] - The company issued HK$1.906 billion 2% convertible bonds with a 5-year maturity to SJM Holdings on June 22, 2022, with an initial conversion price of HK$4.07 per share, which was later adjusted to HK$3.78 per share due to the rights issue[148] - If the convertible bonds are fully exercised at the adjusted conversion price of HK$3.78 per share, 504,232,804 shares will be issued, representing approximately 7.10% of the total issued shares of 7,101,805,366 as of June 30, 2024[149] - The company recorded a loss per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, and the assumption of exercising convertible bonds would result in a reduction of the loss per share[150] - The company has the ability to fulfill its redemption obligations under the convertible bonds based on its bank balance and cash as of June 30, 2024[150] - No conversion, redemption, or cancellation of convertible bonds occurred during the six months ended June 30, 2024[150] - The company issued HKD 1.25 billion 3.9% priority notes due in 2026, listed on MOX[157] - The company issued MOP 300 million 3.9% priority notes due in 2026, listed on MOX[158] - Champion Path issued $500,000,000 of 4.50% senior notes due in 2026, listed on the Stock Exchange[159] - Champion Path issued $500,000,000 of 4.85% senior notes due in 2028, listed on the Stock Exchange[160] - Adjusted EBITDA is defined as profit or loss before interest income/expense, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, among other adjustments[161] - Adjusted EBITDA margin is calculated as Adjusted EBITDA divided by total net revenue[162] - The company's subsidiary, Champion Moments Limited, is a wholly-owned entity registered in the British Virgin Islands[164] - The company's subsidiary, Champion Path Holdings Limited, is a wholly-owned entity registered in the British Virgin Islands[165] - The company's subsidiary, Champion Power Global Limited, is a wholly-owned entity registered in the British Virgin Islands[166] - The company has a secured bank loan for the Grand Lisboa Palace project[168] Business Operations and Strategy - The "Individual Visit Scheme" expanded to include 10 additional mainland Chinese cities, bringing the total to 59 cities, enhancing tourism opportunities[16] - Acquired two strategic assets in Q2 2024 to enhance dining leadership and mass market influence, including the iconic Golden Jubilee Entertainment Center, expected to open by end of 2024[17] - Employee count remained stable at approximately 19,700 full-time employees as of June 30, 2024, with low turnover rate in H1 2024[23] - Five restaurants under the group were listed in "Tatler Dining 20 Macau" in 2024, reinforcing its leadership in Macau's dining scene[18] - Actively participated in overseas roadshows in key markets including Singapore, Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand, and Hong Kong to promote "Tourism +" products[18] - Sponsored major events such as the FAI Indoor Skydiving World Cup and the Macau International Dragon Boat Race to enhance Macau's reputation as a high-end sports tourism destination[17] - Gaming business revenue increased to HKD 12,897.0 million in the first half of 2024, up from HKD 8,695.1 million in the same period in 2023, representing a 48.3% growth[44] - Hotel, catering, retail, and leasing business revenue rose to HKD 904.3 million in the first half of 2024, compared to HKD 666.5 million in the same period in 2023,

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.90, representing a potential upside of 24.5% from the current price of HKD 2.33 [2]. Core Insights - The second quarter performance of the company met expectations, with a slight quarter-on-quarter increase in gross gaming revenue of 0.1% to HKD 6.89 billion, recovering to 69.9% of the 2019 level [1]. - The market share of the company increased by 0.2 percentage points to 12.6% in the second quarter, with further improvement noted in July and August, reaching 13.5% [1]. - The performance of "The Venetian" and other self-operated venues showed mixed results, with "The Venetian" experiencing a 5.0% decline in gaming revenue, while other venues saw slight increases [1]. - "The Parisian" recorded a revenue of HKD 1.54 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.3%, and its EBITDA increased by 17.2% to HKD 104 million [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of Macau's gaming market, with long-term growth and competitive advantages anticipated from "The Parisian" [1]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, the company reported a net income of HKD 6,678.6 million, with a projected increase to HKD 27,911.4 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 29.1% [3]. - EBITDA is expected to rise from HKD 1,727.0 million in 2023 to HKD 3,721.2 million in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 115.5% [3]. - The net profit is projected to turn positive in 2024, reaching HKD 288.3 million, compared to a loss of HKD 2,009.8 million in 2023 [3]. - The company’s cash position is approximately HKD 34.3 billion, with net debt around HKD 235.3 billion [1].

Financial Performance - The group's total net revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was HKD 13,801 million, representing a 47.4% increase from HKD 9,362 million in the same period of 2023[2] - Gaming net revenue reached HKD 12,897 million, up 48.3% from HKD 8,695 million year-on-year[2] - Adjusted EBITDA for the group was HKD 1,734 million, a significant increase of 275.9% compared to HKD 461 million in the previous year[2] - The company reported a loss attributable to shareholders of HKD 162 million, an improvement from a loss of HKD 1,264 million in the same period last year[2] - The group's total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was HKD 14,695.6 million, a 49.5% increase from HKD 9,840.7 million in the same period of 2023[17] - The gaming business reported revenue of HKD 13,791.3 million, up 50.5% from HKD 9,174.2 million year-on-year[22] - The hotel, restaurant, retail, and leasing business generated revenue of HKD 904.3 million, an increase of 35.6% compared to HKD 666.5 million in the previous year[17] - The company reported a basic and diluted loss per share of HK$0.023 and HK$0.023 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to HK$0.178 for both in the same period of 2023[28] - The total loss attributable to the company's owners for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was HK$162.4 million, a significant decrease from HK$1,264.1 million in the same period of 2023[28] Assets and Liabilities - The group recorded cash, bank balances, and short-term bank deposits of HKD 3,433 million as of June 30, 2024, with total debt amounting to HKD 26,967 million[3] - As of June 30, 2024, the company's non-current liabilities totaled HKD 29,148.4 million, a decrease of 4.1% from HKD 30,379.0 million as of December 31, 2023[8] - The company's net asset value as of June 30, 2024, was HKD 13,969.8 million, down from HKD 14,085.2 million as of December 31, 2023, reflecting a decline of 0.8%[9] - The group's total assets as of June 30, 2024, were HKD 48,328.3 million, down from HKD 49,739.7 million at the end of 2023[20] - The total liabilities decreased to HKD 34,358.5 million from HKD 35,654.5 million at the end of 2023[20] - The company reported a decrease in bank loans due in more than one year, from HKD 14,265.2 million to HKD 12,953.7 million, a reduction of 9.2%[8] - The company's total equity, including non-controlling interests, was HKD 13,969.8 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to HKD 14,085.2 million at the end of 2023[9] Operational Highlights - The average daily room rate for the group's hotels decreased by 15.1% to HKD 1,155, while occupancy rates increased by 10.9% to 94.8%[3] - The adjusted property EBITDA for the group's flagship properties showed significant improvement, with the overall EBITDA for the new property reaching HKD 1,010 million, up from HKD 473 million in the previous year[3] - The group holds a 12.5% share of Macau's gross gaming revenue, including 15.2% of the mass table gaming revenue and 4.4% of the VIP gaming revenue[3] - The gaming business's pre-tax loss was HKD 85.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to a loss of HKD 1,196.9 million in the same period of 2023[23] - The group’s pre-tax loss before allocation of corporate income and expenses was HKD 1,147.3 million for the first half of 2024[23] Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to enhancing its operational strategies in both gaming and hospitality sectors to drive future growth and market expansion[14] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and enhancing its product offerings in the coming periods[36] - The company completed two strategic acquisitions to enhance its dining leadership and strengthen its presence in the mass market[46] - The company plans to open a new dining and social hotspot in Macau by the end of 2024, following the acquisition of a landmark building[46] - The company actively participated in major events to promote Macau as a high-end sports tourism destination, enhancing its international reputation[46] Compliance and Reporting - The company has applied revised Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards effective from January 1, 2024, with no significant impact on the financial position or performance during the reporting period[13] - The company’s financial statements are prepared in accordance with Hong Kong Accounting Standards, ensuring compliance with local regulations[11] Cash Management - As of June 30, 2024, the group's bank balances and cash amounted to HKD 24.24 billion, a decrease of 31.6% from HKD 35.42 billion on December 31, 2023[48] - The total outstanding bank loans as of June 30, 2024, was HKD 140.12 billion, down from HKD 152.36 billion on December 31, 2023[48] - The group's asset-liability ratio at the end of the reporting period was 52.4%, slightly up from 52.2% on December 31, 2023[49] - The contracted capital expenditure commitments as of June 30, 2024, were HKD 7.44 billion, an increase from HKD 4.27 billion on December 31, 2023[50] Employee and Market Engagement - The group has maintained a low employee turnover rate with approximately 19,700 full-time employees as of June 30, 2024[53] - The group has not made any significant acquisitions or disposals of subsidiaries or associates during the reporting period[53] - The group has no current hedging against interest rate risks but may consider this in the future[52] - The group’s cash and bank deposits are primarily denominated in HKD, USD, or MOP, minimizing foreign exchange volatility risk[52] - The group has not purchased, sold, or redeemed any listed securities during the six months ended June 30, 2024[54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2024 was slightly below expectations due to one-time opening costs associated with the Versace hotel, with net revenue reaching HKD 6.92 billion, aligning closely with Bloomberg's consensus estimate of HKD 6.85 billion, and recovering to 68.2% of Q1 2019 levels [2][1] - The company's adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2024 was HKD 860 million, recovering to 80.4% of the same period in 2019, but slightly below the consensus estimate of HKD 910 million due to the one-time opening cost of HKD 58 million for the Versace hotel [2][1] - The "One SJM" strategy has proven effective, with total gaming revenue in Q1 2024 reaching HKD 6.89 billion, recovering to 66.2% of Q1 2019 levels [2][1] - The company aims to maintain a market share target of 5% for the Grand Lisboa, with current market share at 2.0% in Q1 2024, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][1] - Daily operating expenses for Q1 2024 averaged HKD 20.4 million, a 5.5% increase from the previous quarter, primarily due to the one-time opening costs and the addition of 20-30 marketing personnel [2][1] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards to HKD 29.14 billion, HKD 30.68 billion, and HKD 32.04 billion respectively, with adjusted EBITDA forecasts of HKD 4.05 billion, HKD 4.67 billion, and HKD 4.97 billion [2][1] - The current stock price corresponds to EV/EBITDA multiples of 11.3, 9.8, and 9.3 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a target price set at HKD 3.6 [2][1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2024 was slightly below expectations, primarily due to one-time opening costs associated with the Versace hotel. The net revenue for Q1 2024 was HKD 6.92 billion, aligning closely with Bloomberg's consensus estimate of HKD 6.85 billion, and recovering to 68.2% of Q1 2019 levels. Gaming and non-gaming net revenues were HKD 6.46 billion and HKD 460 million, respectively, recovering to 76.3% and 250.5% of the same period in 2019 [1] - The "One SJM" strategy has proven effective, with gaming revenue accelerating recovery. Total gaming revenue for Q1 2024 reached HKD 6.89 billion, recovering to 66.2% of Q1 2019 levels. VIP and mass market gaming revenues were HKD 650 million and HKD 6.25 billion, respectively, recovering to 16.4% and 96.4% of the same period in 2019 [1] - The company maintains a market share target of 5% for the Grand Lisboa, with a current market share of 2.0% in Q1 2024, which increased to 2.2% in April 2024. The company plans to enhance accessibility and increase marketing personnel to achieve this target [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023A, total revenue was HKD 21,623.2 million, with projections of HKD 29,138.4 million for 2024E, HKD 30,675.9 million for 2025E, and HKD 32,042.5 million for 2026E. The year-on-year growth rates are 223.8% for 2023A and 34.8% for 2024E [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2023A was HKD 1,928.0 million, with projections of HKD 4,050.0 million for 2024E, HKD 4,672.2 million for 2025E, and HKD 4,969.0 million for 2026E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 110.1% in 2024E [2] - The diluted earnings per share for 2023A was -0.28 HKD, with projections of 0.07 HKD for 2024E, 0.19 HKD for 2025E, and 0.26 HKD for 2026E [2] Operational Insights - The average daily operating expenses for Q1 2024 were approximately HKD 20.4 million, a 5.5% increase from the previous quarter, mainly due to one-time opening costs and the addition of 20-30 marketing personnel [1] - The company expects that once the Grand Lisboa achieves its target market share, the average daily operating expenses will approach HKD 8 million [1] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to an EV/Adjusted EBITDA of 11.34 for 2024E, 9.83 for 2025E, and 9.25 for 2026E. The target price is set at HKD 3.6, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Revenue Growth - The group's gaming net revenue for Q1 2024 increased to HKD 6.464 billion, compared to HKD 3.705 billion in Q1 2023, representing a growth of 74.5%[2] - The group recorded total net revenue of HKD 6.92 billion for Q1 2024, a 73.0% increase from HKD 4.0 billion in Q1 2023[4] - The group's gaming gross revenue for Q1 2024 was HKD 6.892 billion, compared to HKD 3.888 billion in Q1 2023, marking a growth of 77.3%[7] - The group's non-gaming revenue for Q1 2024 was HKD 4.56 billion, up from HKD 2.95 billion in Q1 2023[4] - The total revenue for the entertainment segment (gaming gross revenue) reached HKD 1,877 million, a 102.3% increase from HKD 928 million in the same period last year[9] - Non-gaming revenue from the entertainment segment was HKD 1,261 million, a 34.0% increase from HKD 941 million year-over-year[10] - The total revenue for the group was HKD 1,958 million, representing a 97.4% increase from HKD 992 million in the same quarter last year[9] EBITDA and Profitability - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2024 was HKD 864 million, a significant increase from HKD 31 million in Q1 2023, reflecting a growth of 2,687%[4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin for Q1 2024 was 12.5%, up from 0.8% in Q1 2023, an increase of 11.7 percentage points[4] - The group’s adjusted property EBITDA for Q1 2024 was HKD 88 million, compared to a loss of HKD 230 million in Q1 2023, reflecting a turnaround of HKD 318 million[8] - Adjusted property EBITDA was HKD 535 million, reflecting a significant increase of 242.9% compared to HKD 156 million in the previous year[9] Hotel Performance - The occupancy rate for hotels in the group reached 92.6% in Q1 2024, up from 83.7% in Q1 2023, an increase of 8.9 percentage points[8] - The hotel occupancy rate improved to 98.3%, up 13.0 percentage points from 85.3% in the same quarter last year[9] - The average daily room rate increased by 37.0% to HKD 1,234 from HKD 901 in the same period last year[9] Electronic Gaming Performance - The group's electronic gaming gross revenue for Q1 2024 was HKD 4.143 billion, a 262.2% increase from HKD 1.144 billion in Q1 2023[8] - The total electronic gaming revenue was HKD 2,479 million, a 33.7% increase from HKD 1,854 million year-over-year[9] Non-Gaming Performance - The non-gaming win amount was HKD 1,192 million, a 37.6% increase from HKD 866 million in the previous year[10] - The group reported a non-gaming win percentage of 14.7%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points from 14.6% year-over-year[10] Financial Position - The group reported a cash and bank balance of HKD 4.952 billion as of March 31, 2024, with total debt of HKD 28.488 billion[3] Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures for the first quarter of 2024 amounted to HKD 73 million, primarily for furniture, fixtures, and equipment[12]

Financial Performance - The company's subsidiary, SJM Resorts, recorded a net gaming revenue of HKD 20.059 billion in 2023, compared to HKD 6.092 billion in 2022[4] - The group's adjusted EBITDA was HKD 1.727 billion in 2023, a significant improvement from a loss of HKD 3.095 billion in 2022[4] - The company's attributable loss to owners was HKD 2.010 billion in 2023, reduced from HKD 7.798 billion in 2022[4] - Total net revenue increased by 223.7% to HKD 21.623 billion in 2023 compared to HKD 6.679 billion in 2022, driven by rolling chip, non-rolling chip, and electronic gaming revenue[10][11] - Gaming net revenue surged by 229.3% to HKD 20.059 billion in 2023 from HKD 6.092 billion in 2022, with non-rolling chip gaming revenue growing by 239.6% to HKD 17.874 billion[10][12] - Adjusted EBITDA improved significantly to HKD 1.727 billion in 2023 from a loss of HKD 3.095 billion in 2022, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.0% compared to -46.3% in the previous year[10] - Total revenue for 2023 reached HKD 5,746 million, a 379.2% increase compared to 2022, driven by significant growth in casino, hotel, and other non-gaming segments[15] - Casino gross gaming revenue surged to HKD 5,439 million in 2023, up 409.7% from HKD 1,067 million in 2022[15] - Adjusted property EBITDA turned positive at HKD 1,325 million in 2023, compared to a loss of HKD 758 million in 2022[15] - Satellite casino revenue grew 128.3% to HKD 8,647 million in 2023, with adjusted property EBITDA improving to a loss of HKD 338 million from a loss of HKD 635 million in 2022[17] Gaming Revenue and Operations - SJM Resorts accounted for 11.9% of Macau's gross gaming revenue, including 14.8% of mass table gaming revenue and 3.5% of VIP gaming revenue[5] - Grand Lisboa Palace recorded gross revenue of HKD 3.670 billion, including HKD 2.690 billion in gaming revenue and HKD 980 million in non-gaming revenue[5] - Non-rolling chip turnover rose by 350.9% to HKD 9.094 billion in 2023, with a win rate of 16.4%, up 1.3 percentage points from 15.1% in 2022[13] - Electronic gaming revenue soared by 879.2% to HKD 10.987 billion in 2023, with a win rate of 3.1%, slightly down from 3.7% in 2022[13] - Non-rolling chip turnover increased by 590.5% to HKD 22,482 million, with a win rate of 19.8%, slightly lower than the 21.5% in 2022[15] Hotel and Non-Gaming Revenue - Grand Lisboa Palace's occupancy rate increased by 50.4% to 82.6% in 2023, with an average room rate increase of 44.3% to HKD 1,322[5] - Grand Lisboa Hotel's occupancy rate rose by 46.8% to 93.0% in 2023, with an average room rate increase of 76.8% to HKD 1,121[5] - Grand Lisboa Palace's total revenue increased by 434.2% to HKD 3.670 billion in 2023, with casino revenue growing by 677.5% to HKD 2.690 billion and hotel revenue increasing by 615.2% to HKD 472 million[13] - Hotel occupancy rate at Grand Lisboa Palace improved significantly to 82.6% in 2023 from 32.2% in 2022, with average daily rate increasing by 44.3% to HKD 1,322[13] - Hotel occupancy rate improved to 93.0% in 2023, up 46.8 percentage points from 46.2% in 2022, with average daily room rate rising 76.8% to HKD 1,121[15] Financial Position and Liquidity - The group had cash, bank balances, short-term bank deposits, and pledged bank deposits totaling HKD 4.550 billion as of December 31, 2023[5] - The group completed the refinancing of its syndicated loan facility (including HKD 9 billion in term loans and HKD 10 billion in revolving credit) on June 20, 2022, with HKD 3.3 billion undrawn as of December 31, 2023[5] - As of December 31, 2023, the company held HKD 3.542 billion in cash and bank balances, a 48.3% decrease from HKD 6.856 billion at the end of 2022[21] - Total outstanding bank loans decreased to HKD 15.236 billion as of December 31, 2023, down from HKD 18.975 billion at the end of 2022[21] - The company's asset-liability ratio was 52.2% at the end of the reporting period, down from 53.2% at the end of 2022[23] - The company's committed capital expenditure commitments were HK$427 million as of December 31, 2023, up from HK$117 million at the end of 2022[24] - The company had mortgaged properties and equipment with a book value of HK$34.055 billion and right-of-use assets of HK$1.711 billion as of December 31, 2023[24] - The company had HK$1.009 billion in pledged bank deposits as of December 31, 2023, down from HK$1.154 billion at the end of 2022[24] - The company had no significant contingent liabilities as of December 31, 2023[25] Corporate Governance and Board Structure - The board of directors consists of 10 members, with 5 executive directors (50%), 1 non-executive director (10%), and 4 independent non-executive directors (40%)[136] - The company has established mechanisms to ensure independent views and opinions are expressed within the board, including annual meetings between the chairman and independent non-executive directors[138] - The board diversity policy, adopted in 2013, emphasizes factors such as gender, age, race, cultural and educational background, and professional experience[139] - As of December 31, 2023, the board includes 4 female directors and 6 male directors, with a gender ratio of 47% male and 53% female in the overall workforce[141] - The company has separated the roles of chairman and CEO, with Ms. Angela Leong as the chairman and Dr. Ambrose So as the CEO until June 15, 2023[142] - The company's board of directors has the authority to appoint directors to fill temporary vacancies or new director positions, subject to shareholder election at the first annual general meeting after appointment[144] - One-third of the company's directors must retire at each annual general meeting but are eligible for re-election, with specific directors set to retire at the 2024 annual general meeting[144] - Non-executive directors, including independent non-executive directors, have three-year appointment terms and must retire in rotation according to the company's articles of association and listing rules[145] - Independent non-executive directors provide independent, constructive, and well-founded opinions on the company's strategy and policies, contributing positively to decision-making[145] - The company ensures that independent non-executive directors constitute at least one-third of the board and that at least one has appropriate professional qualifications or accounting and financial management expertise[145] Sustainability and Environmental Measures - The company has implemented multiple environmental measures, including installing LED lighting and adopting electronic processes to reduce paper usage[126] - The company's hotel section has obtained the LEED Silver certification from the U.S. Green Building Council[126] - The company submitted a carbon emissions report for its Hong Kong office in 2023, which is available on the carbon neutrality and sustainable development website[126] - The company has established a Sustainability Steering Committee to oversee and report on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) activities[126][131] - The company has a framework to identify and consider environmental and social risks, with the Sustainability Steering Committee providing recommendations to the Board[131] Related Party Transactions - The company's property lease agreement with Sociedade de Turismo e Diversões de Macau, S.A. (STDM) and its affiliates has an annual cap and total transaction amount for 2023, covering the period from January 1, 2023, to December 31, 2025[82] - STDM and its affiliates provide various products and services to the company, including hotel accommodation, hospitality, transportation, maintenance, laundry, hotel management, and advertising services, with an annual cap and total transaction amount for 2023[84] - The company has a chip agreement with STDM and STDM's integrated resort, which has been in place since June 18, 2008, with no fixed term and can be terminated by mutual agreement or upon the termination of STDM's gaming concession[86] - The total value of STDM chips redeemed in 2023 has significantly decreased compared to previous years, as STDM's integrated resort has had sufficient chip supply since 2011 and no longer needs to borrow STDM chips[87] - The total amount for property leasing agreements with SJM and its subsidiaries for the year ended December 31, 2023, was HKD 18.4 million, with an annual cap of HKD 34.5 million[88] - The total amount for hotel accommodation services under the product and service agreement for the year ended December 31, 2023, was HKD 49.1 million, with an annual cap revised to HKD 65.0 million[88][90] - The annual cap for hotel accommodation services under the product and service agreement was further revised to HKD 103.5 million for 2024 and HKD 113.9 million for 2025, reflecting strong growth in hotel services[90] - The annual cap for the chip agreement with SJM was set at HKD 76.0 million for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, based on the outstanding amount of SJM chips in circulation[90] - The total transaction amount under the New Yaohan Department Store agreement for 2023 was HKD 79.6 million, with annual caps set from HKD 99.2 million in 2023 to HKD 161.6 million in 2031[92][93] - The monthly basic fee for the first three years is 4% of the monthly sales revenue, increasing to 4.5% for years seven to nine, and 5% for years ten to twelve, with a minimum fee based on the previous period's average plus a 10% increase[94] - The fixed monthly management fee for the first three years is approximately HKD 2.1 million, increasing by 7.5% every three years[94] - The fixed monthly promotional fee for the first three years is approximately HKD 333,000, increasing by 7.5% every three years[94] - The total amount for annual rent and related payments for 2023 was HKD 34.8 million, with annual caps set at HKD 37.4 million for 2023, HKD 10.2 million for 2024, and HKD 3.0 million for 2025[97] - The annual cap for the property leasing master agreement was revised to HKD 10.2 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, due to the extension of the lease agreement for the Grand Lisboa Palace[98] - The company renewed the property leasing master agreement with Angela Leong in March 2023, setting annual caps for the fiscal years ending December 31, 2023, 2024, and 2025 at HKD 37.4 million, HKD 3.0 million, and HKD 3.0 million, respectively[98] - The company entered into a service agreement with Grand Emperor Entertainment, which provides marketing, promotion, and customer development services, and allows the use of designated areas of the Grand Emperor Hotel for casino operations[99] - The fees for the Grand Emperor service agreement are determined based on a fixed percentage of the gross gaming revenue from the relevant casino areas, after deducting all related costs and expenses[100] - The service fee payable to Arc de Triomphe Entertainment for the year ended December 31, 2023, was HKD 325.7 million, with an annual cap of HKD 510.0 million[102] - The annual caps for the service fee payable to Arc de Triomphe Entertainment for the years ending December 31, 2024, and 2025, are HKD 351.7 million and HKD 450.1 million, respectively[102] - The board revised the annual cap for the Arc de Triomphe service agreement for the year ending December 31, 2023, to HKD 510.0 million, considering factors such as actual gross gaming revenue and expected growth in visitor numbers[103] - The annual caps for the Arc de Triomphe service agreement were determined based on historical gaming revenue, expected recovery in visitor numbers, and a 15% buffer for inflation and unexpected growth[103] - The auditors confirmed that the disclosed related party transactions did not exceed the maximum annual amounts previously disclosed by the company[104] - Independent non-executive directors confirmed that the related party transactions were conducted on normal commercial terms and in the best interests of shareholders[105] - The net amount of circulating chips received and receivable for the year ended December 31, 2023, was HKD 200,000[105] - All related party transactions complied with the requirements under Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules[106] Shareholder and Dividend Information - The company did not declare an interim dividend for the six months ended June 30, 2023, and does not recommend paying a final dividend for the year ended December 31, 2023[43] - The company's annual general meeting is scheduled for June 26, 2024, with the notice to be published on the company's website and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website around April 29, 2024[44] - The company will suspend share transfer registration from June 20, 2024, to June 26, 2024, to determine shareholder eligibility for the 2024 Annual General Meeting[45] - The last date for share registration for the 2024 Annual General Meeting is June 19, 2024[45] - The deadline for submitting proxy forms for the 2024 Annual General Meeting is June 24, 2024, at 2:30 PM[45] - The company's distributable reserves to shareholders reached HKD 7.167 billion as of December 31, 2023, compared to HKD 7.307 billion in 2022[51] - The company's donations for the year amounted to HKD 2.6 million, down from HKD 3.2 million in 2022[51] Property Portfolio - The company's property portfolio includes the Grand Lisboa Palace with a 94% ownership stake, covering 70,468 square meters of land and 521,435 square meters of floor area[47][49] - The Lisboa Hotel units have an 88.27% ownership stake, covering 11,626 square meters of land and 122,524 square meters of floor area[47][49] - The Oceanus building has a 58.4% ownership stake, covering 6,952 square meters of land and 39,242 square meters of floor area[49] - The Ponte 16 property has a 51% ownership stake, covering 23,066 square meters of land and 126,500 square meters of floor area[49] - The company's Macau International Center property is fully owned, with a floor area of 5,582.72 square meters[49] Share Options and Equity - 477,085,000 share options were granted under the plan, with 299,765,000 exercised, generating HK$2,023,951,490 in proceeds from the issuance of 299,765,000 shares[55] - 147,733,000 share options remained unexercised as of September 21, 2022, adjusted to 158,074,310 after the rights issue[55] - 118,994,700 share options remained unexercised as of December 31, 2023, potentially generating HK$1,091,456,496 if all are exercised[55] - 43,870,000 share options were unexercised by directors as of December 31, 2023[57] - The plan has a validity period of 10 years from the adoption date and expired on May 13, 2019[54] - The exercise price of share options is determined by the board and must not be lower than the higher of the closing price on the grant date or the average closing price over the preceding five business days[54] - Share options must be exercised within nine years from six months after the grant date[54] - The minimum holding period for share options is six months from the grant date, with the board having discretion to set a longer period[54] - HK$1 is required to accept the share options, payable within 28 days from the date of the grant letter[54] - 37,180,360 share options expired during the year ended December 31, 2023[55] - The total number of share options granted under the share option plan as of December 31, 2023, is 118,994,700, with a total of 37,180,360 options canceled or expired during the year[58] - The share options granted to employees (excluding directors' associates) as of December 31, 2023, amount to 45,635,500, with 36,431,360 options canceled or expired during the year[58] - The share options granted to service providers as of December 31, 2023, total 24,075,000, with 535,000 options canceled or expired during the year[58] - The share options granted to directors' associates (who are also employees/former employees) as of December 31, 2023, amount to 5,414,200, with 214,000 options canceled or expired during the year[58] - The exercise price for share options granted on October 8

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Macau Gaming Holdings Limited (880) with a target price of **HKD 3.28**, representing a **41.4%** upside from the current price [1] Core Views - The company's **EBITDA** turned positive in Q4 2023, reaching **HKD 70 million**, a **23.8%** increase QoQ, recovering to **59.1%** of 2019 levels [1] - The **Grand Lisboa Palace** project achieved an EBITDA of **HKD 2 million**, marking its first profitable quarter [1] - The company's market share remained stable at **12.0%** in Q4 2023, with potential for long-term growth to **4-6%** as product offerings expand and customer quality improves [1] Financial Performance - Gross gaming revenue in Q4 2023 increased by **9.0%** QoQ to **HKD 6.74 billion**, recovering to **65.7%** of 2019 levels [1] - VIP gaming revenue grew by **52.2%** QoQ, mass gaming revenue by **8.2%**, while slot machine revenue declined by **2.0%** [1] - Non-gaming revenue decreased by **6.9%** QoQ, accounting for **2.7%** of total revenue [1] - Net loss narrowed to **HKD 3.4 billion** in Q4 2023, with daily operating expenses increasing by **2.0%** to **HKD 19.3 million** [1] Segment Performance - **Grand Lisboa** saw a **16.4%** QoQ increase in gaming revenue to **HKD 1.71 billion**, recovering to **52.5%** of 2019 levels [1] - Other self-operated properties reported a **1.0%** decline in gaming revenue to **HKD 1.17 billion**, recovering to **70.9%** of 2019 levels [1] - Satellite casinos experienced a **10.8%** increase in gaming revenue to **HKD 2.55 billion**, recovering to **49.3%** of 2019 levels [1] Future Outlook - The company is implementing a centralized management system to improve operational efficiency and focus on growth and profitability [1] - The use of **RFID chips** is expected to enhance gaming speed, security, and customer data analysis, helping to identify high-quality customers [1] - The recovery of Macau's gaming market is expected to benefit the company, with potential synergies between **Grand Lisboa** and **Grand Lisboa Palace** [1] Financial Projections - Net revenue is projected to grow by **20.1%** in 2024 to **HKD 25.96 billion**, with further growth of **9.9%** in 2025 and **9.0%** in 2026 [1] - EBITDA is forecasted to increase by **110.6%** in 2024 to **HKD 3.64 billion**, with continued growth in subsequent years [1] - Net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024 at **HKD 667 million**, with significant growth in 2025 and 2026 [1] Valuation - The target price of **HKD 3.28** is based on a **10.4x** 2024 EBITDA valuation for the company's integrated resorts, self-promoted properties, and satellite casinos [1]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·博彩业 澳博 控股（0880.HK） [ 2T 0ab 2le 3_Ma年in] 四季报点评：业绩符合预期，上葡京及新 [Table_Au2th0o2r4] 年 03月 08日 葡京协同作用逐步显现 分析师 买入（维持） 欧阳诗睿 (852) 3982 3217 ouyangshirui@dwzq.com.hk 盈利预测与估值 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 营业总收入（百万港元） 6,678.6 21,705.1 26,023.0 28,797.8 股[T价ab走le_势Pi cQuote] 同比 -33.7 225.0 19.9 10.7 经调整物业EBITDA（百万港元） -3,095.0 1,944.9 3,476.1 4,910.2 同比 - - 78.7 41.3 每股收益-最新股本摊薄（港元/股） -1.23 0.03 0.26 0.46 EV/经调整物业EBITDA - 21.17 11.85 8.39 数 据来源：公司公告，东吴证券（香港） 投资要点 ◼ 业绩符合预期，看好后续经调整物业EBITDA利润率恢复至2019年水 数据来源：Wind 平。 ...