证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 01 日 龙湖集团（00960.HK） 24 年业绩仍受开发拖累，25 年下半年公开市场债务压 力缓解进程或是关注点 24 年收入及利润下滑主要受开发业务拖累，运营及服务业务贡献毛利润占比达 70%且稳健增长；开发业务方面，受市场下行及公开债务偿付压力影响，公司 销售及拿地均承压；运营及服务业务方面，四大非开发业务航道稳健增长，25 年预计开业购物中心 11 座，与去年持平；债务方面，债务规模有序压降，判断 25 年或为公司有息负债（含公开债务及境外银团贷款等）到期高峰期，经营性 贷款稳增或为其偿付提供保障，26 年后公司经营及服务业务利润或足以应对剩 余每年公开市场债务偿付，关注公司 25 年下半年公开市场债务压力缓解进程。 考虑到 25 年底公司资金压力或显著缓释，可支配自由现金流或边际回升，可关 注在此变化下公司投资循环增强以及估值提振的可能，预计 25E/26E/27E EPS 分别为 0.96/1.05/1.14 元/股（同比分别-37%/+9%/+9%），当前股价对应 PE 分别为 9.5/8.7/8.0，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 | 会计年度 ...

龙湖集团（00960.HK） 优于大市 开发业务承压，经营性业务稳步增长 证券研究报告 | 2025年04月01日 核心净利-39%。2024 年公司实现营业收入 1275 亿元，同比下降 29.5%；实 现归母净利润 104 亿元，同比下降 19.1%；剔除少数股东损益、投资性物业 和金融衍生品的公允价值变动后的核心净利润 70 亿元，同比下降 38.6%。分 不同业务看，公司物业开发业务收入 1008 亿元，占比为 79%，下降 7pct； 运营及服务业务收入分别为 135、132 亿元，占比分别为 11%、10%，分别上 升 3pct、4pct。 开发业务承压，聚焦核心城市。2024 年公司开发业务收入同比下降 35%，受 市场大势影响仍在调整阶段。公司实现销售面积 712 万平方米，同比下降 34.1%；实现销售金额 1011 亿元，同比下降 41.7%；其中长三角、西部、环 渤海、华南及华中片区销售额分别占比 29%、27%、19%、15%、10%。公司新 增拿地 9 个，总建面 83 万平方米，权益地价 51 亿元。截至 2024 年末，公 司拥有土储合计 3312 万平方米，权益面积 2426 ...

"2024年，龙湖运营及服务业务实现收入267亿元，对集团整体收入的贡献占比达到21%，并且有希望在 2028年达到收入占比过半。"3月28日，在龙湖集团控股有限公司(以下简称"龙湖集团")业绩会上，其董 事会主席兼首席执行官陈序平表示，这几年，运营及服务业务正撑起公司利润盘面。 同日，龙湖集团发布的2024年"成绩单"显示，报告期内，公司实现营业收入为1274.7亿元，股东应占溢 利(净利润)为104亿元。其中，运营及服务业务实现收入267亿元，贡献81亿元的核心净利润。 对于未来是否会"重运营、轻开发"，陈序平表示，开发、运营、服务三者齐头并进。但现阶段公司仍把 债务安全放在首位，因此债务安全优先于增量投资。开发业务会保持一定的投资强度，聚焦一二线核心 城市，选择更加有兑现把握的项目。 与此同时，面对市场对更高住房品质的追求，龙湖集团亦结合好房子的政策导向，从社区配套、产品设 计、物业服务等细节方面不断优化，推出全新的产品线——观萃。 "成都观萃开盘三个月就实现清盘，上海观萃自去年9月份首开后三开三罄，在12月底也实现清盘，可以 说观萃产品线得到市场的充分认可。"张旭忠表示。 "2028年，即使运营及服务 ...

证券研究报告 龙湖集团 (960 HK) 港股通 经营业务托底，开发业务仍待修复 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 30 日│中国香港 | 房地产开发 | 公司发布业绩：24 年实现营收 1275 亿元，同比-29%；核心/归母净利润 70/104 亿元，同比-39%/-19%，符合业绩预告。我们认为公司开发业务短 期内仍将承压，但市场对此已有一定预期，随着经营性业务持续构筑业绩基 本盘，将一定程度上对冲地产业务下行带来的不利影响，维持"买入"评级。 经营性业务稳健增长，发挥压舱石作用 24 年公司经营性业务稳中有进，收入/毛利同比+7%+6%，占比同比+7/26pct 至 21%/70%，成为业绩压舱石。24 年公司旗下商场同店营业额同比+7%（高 于社零增速），整体出租率同比+1pct 至 97%，租金收入同比+7%至 110 亿 元；冠寓租金收入/服务业务收入同比+4%/+10%至 27/132 亿元，均实现稳 健增长。25 年公司计划新开业商场 11 个，对应总开业面积将同比+12%， 有望支持经营性业务利润进 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8][20] Core Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in performance, but its diversified business segments are showing stable growth, leading to an optimized profit structure [8][9] - The company reported a significant drop in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 127.475 billion and a net profit of 10.401 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 29.5% and 19.1% respectively [7][8] - The core net profit for 2024 was 69.7 billion, down 38.6% year-on-year, which was in line with expectations [8] - The company’s real estate settlement revenue decreased by 35% to 100.8 billion, while its operational and service revenue increased by 7.3% to 26.7 billion, contributing to 70% of gross profit [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 93.681 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 26.5% [7][9] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.976 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 42.5% [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.87 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.0 [7][9] - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to decline to 3.6% in 2025 [7] Business Performance - The company’s sales for 2024 were 1,011 billion, down 41.7% year-on-year, with a sales area of 7.12 million square meters, a decrease of 34% [8] - The company has adopted a cautious approach to land acquisition, securing only 9 plots for a total of 11.5 billion, a 69% decrease year-on-year [8] - The company’s diversified business segments, including shopping malls and property management, have shown stable growth, with operational service revenue increasing by 7.3% [8] Debt and Financial Health - The company remains in a healthy financial position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 57.2% and a net debt ratio of 51.7% as of the end of 2024 [8] - The company’s financing cost has decreased to 4.0%, reflecting a 24 basis point year-on-year decline [8] - The company has a long debt maturity profile, with an average term of 10.3 years [8]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group reported strong financial performance for 2024, with total revenue of RMB 127.47 billion and net profit of RMB 10.4 billion, highlighting the resilience of its operational and service segments amid a challenging real estate market [1][3] Financial Performance - Longfor's operational and service business generated revenue of RMB 26.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, contributing 21% to total revenue [1] - The company achieved a net debt ratio of 51.7% by the end of 2024, with cash on hand amounting to RMB 49.42 billion and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.63 [1] - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.1 per share, with a total dividend payout of RMB 0.32 per share for the year, representing a payout ratio of approximately 30% [2] Sales and Market Position - Longfor maintained a stable sales figure exceeding RMB 100 billion, ranking among the top tier in the industry, with a total contract sales of RMB 101.12 billion for 2024 [3] - The company reported a sales return rate exceeding 100%, with significant sales in 19 cities across the country [3] Strategic Focus - Longfor aims to balance its revenue structure between development and operational services by 2028, prioritizing debt safety over new investments [3] - The company plans to launch over RMB 160 billion in saleable inventory, with more than 80% located in first- and second-tier cities [4] Operational Insights - Longfor's operational business, excluding tax rental income, reached RMB 13.52 billion, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 75% [7] - The commercial segment generated rental income of RMB 10.98 billion, with a 7% increase and a significant rise in both sales and foot traffic [9][11] Land Acquisition and Development - In 2024, Longfor acquired land reserves totaling 830,000 square meters, with an average acquisition cost of RMB 13,285 per square meter [5] - The company maintained a cautious investment approach despite a recovering land market, focusing on strategic locations and avoiding aggressive bidding [6] Debt Management - Longfor's financial discipline has led to a reduction in total borrowings to RMB 176.32 billion, down over RMB 30 billion from peak levels, with a significant shift towards operational property loans [22][23] - The average financing cost decreased to an annual rate of 4%, with a loan maturity of 10.27 years, indicating a stable debt structure [22]

在回答《每日经济新闻》等媒体关于未来公司是否会"重运营、轻开发"的提问时，陈序平指出，在近几年地产业务受到冲击的情况下，运营及服务航道基本 上撑起了整个集团利润的盘面。"但龙湖实际上是开发、运营服务齐头并进，只是在目前阶段，龙湖要把债务安全放在第一位，债务安全优先于增量投资。" "地产开发的很多现金流要用于偿还集团顶层的债务债券融资，所以就会压缩投资的头寸。但公司也保持了一定的投资强度，聚焦一二线核心的城市，选择 更有生意逻辑、更加有兑现把握的项目。同时，我们对一些低能级项目选择了出清策略。"陈序平强调，开发业务公司依然会持续做，"即使到2028年运营及 服务收入占比过半的情况下，开发业务收入仍将是公司最重要的收入组成部分"。 2024年，龙湖集团在北京、上海、杭州、成都等城市共获得9幅土地，新增土储总建筑面积为83万平方米，权益面积为39万平方米。截至2024年末，龙湖集 团的土地储备合计达3312万平方米，权益面积为2426万平方米。 对于2025年的投资策略，龙湖集团执行董事兼地产航道总裁张旭忠表示，今年的销售仍然有很大机会。龙湖的供货非常充裕，年初存货达到900多亿元，今 年预计会有600亿到700亿 ...

开发业务方面，全年实现合约销售金额1011亿人民币，其中一二线城市销售占比超90%，并表回款率超 100%，持续保持高质量回款。商业投资方面，全年如期新增运营11座商场，其中4座为轻资产。 智通财经APP讯，龙湖集团(00960)公布2024年业绩，营业收入为人民币1274.7亿元。其中，运营及服务 业务收入为人民币267.1亿元，同比增长7.4%。毛利额为人民币204.1亿元，毛利率为16.0%。公司拥有 人应占溢利为人民币104.01亿元，剔除投资物业及其他衍生金融工具公平值变动影响后的公司拥有人应 占核心溢利为人民币69.7亿元。每股基本盈利人民币1.58元，议派发末期股息每股人民币0.10元。 过去两年，该集团持续深耕高能级城市，打造云河颂、御湖境、观萃等改善型住宅产品，满足差异化的 居住需求。去年全年，集团在全国43城共计交付约10万套品质房源，满意度达90%。在市场"止跌回 稳"的趋势下，集团将致力于存量货源的攻坚去化，同时适时、精准补充新地，推进土储结构优化与提 质。 于2024年12月31日，该集团的土地储备合计3,312万平方米，权益面积为2,426万平方米。土地储备的平 均成本为每平方米人 ...

Financial Performance - Contract sales amounted to RMB 101.12 billion, corresponding to a total sales area of 7.124 million square meters[2] - Revenue reached RMB 127.47 billion, with operating and service revenue increasing by 7.4% year-on-year to RMB 26.71 billion[2] - Profit attributable to the company's owners was RMB 10.40 billion, with core profit after tax at RMB 6.97 billion, resulting in a core profit margin of 6.4%[2] - Total comprehensive income for the year was RMB 11.67 billion, down from RMB 15.68 billion in the previous year[4] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 1.58, while core basic earnings per share were RMB 1.06[2] - Total revenue for the year ending December 31, 2024, was RMB 127,474,948,000, a decrease of 29.5% from RMB 180,736,575,000 in 2023[14] - Adjusted profit for the development segment was RMB 1,317,707,000, down 89.1% from RMB 12,078,240,000 in the previous year[14] - The total adjusted profit for the company was RMB 15,399,594,000, a decrease of 37.2% from RMB 24,528,297,000 in the previous year[17] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 10,401,171 in 2024, down from RMB 12,850,011 in 2023, a decrease of 19.1%[34] Debt and Liquidity - The net debt ratio stood at 51.7%, with cash on hand amounting to RMB 49.42 billion[2] - Total borrowings decreased by 8.5% year-on-year to RMB 176.32 billion, with an average financing cost of 4.0%[2] - As of the end of 2024, the company's interest-bearing debt decreased by RMB 16.3 billion to RMB 176.3 billion, with an average financing cost reduced to 4.00%[42] - The group’s debt is approximately 86.4% denominated in RMB, with 13.6% in foreign currencies, and all foreign currency borrowings are hedged against exchange rate risks[72] - The group has a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.03 times, indicating a stable liquidity position[74] Assets and Liabilities - Investment properties increased to RMB 210.92 billion, up from RMB 199.75 billion year-on-year[5] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 47.95 billion from RMB 59.22 billion year-on-year[5] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 420,164,974,000 from RMB 463,948,608,000 in the previous year[17] - The company reported a consolidated asset total of RMB 665,641,785,000, down from RMB 700,406,875,000 in 2023[17] - The company’s trade payables and accrued construction costs totaled RMB 40.56 billion in 2024, down from RMB 42.48 billion in 2023[40] Revenue Segments - Revenue from external customers in the development segment decreased to RMB 100,766,610,000, a decline of 35.4% compared to RMB 155,857,211,000 in 2023[18] - The service segment's revenue increased to RMB 13,186,068,000, up 10.4% from RMB 11,943,543,000 in 2023[18] - Revenue from rental income was RMB 13,522,270,000, an increase of 4.5% from RMB 12,935,821,000 in 2023[18] - The company’s smart living services generated revenue of RMB 11.42 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8%[44] - The property management segment achieved revenue of RMB 11.42 billion, managing a total area of 410 million square meters by year-end[78] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.10 per share, totaling an annual dividend of RMB 0.32 per share[2] - The company proposed a final dividend of RMB 688,816,000 for 2024, compared to RMB 1,516,104,000 for 2023[32] Corporate Governance - The board of directors includes nine members, with Chen Xuping serving as both the chairman and CEO, which deviates from the corporate governance code[92] - The company is committed to high standards of corporate governance to enhance performance and company value[87] - The audit committee consists of three independent non-executive directors who reviewed the accounting principles and financial reporting matters[86] Strategic Initiatives - The group has invested over RMB 2 billion in public welfare, benefiting 2.34 million people across the country[48] - All new projects meet the national green building star rating standards, reflecting the group's commitment to low-carbon principles[48] - The group aims to enhance its corporate governance system to ensure high-quality and sustainable development[48] - The group plans to open 11 new shopping malls in 2025, focusing on cities like Hangzhou, Wuhan, and Chongqing, while maintaining a balanced development approach[77] Operational Highlights - The company delivered approximately 100,000 quality housing units across 43 cities in the past year, achieving a customer satisfaction rate of 90%[42] - The commercial segment achieved a rental rate of 97% by the end of 2024, contributing to stable operating profits and cash flow[43] - The average daily foot traffic for the year was 3.28 million visitors[58] - The overall gross profit margin for operations was 75.0%, a decrease of 0.8% year-on-year[54] Land Reserves and Acquisitions - The total land reserve of the group as of December 31, 2024, is 33.12 million square meters, with an equity area of 24.26 million square meters and an average cost of RMB 4,304 per square meter[66] - In 2024, the group acquired a total of 830,000 square meters of new land reserves, with an equity area of 390,000 square meters and an average equity acquisition cost of RMB 13,285 per square meter[66] - The land reserves are distributed regionally, with the Bohai Rim region accounting for 34.6%, the Western region 27.6%, the Central China region 15.0%, the Yangtze River Delta region 13.9%, and the South China region 8.9%[66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price revised down from HK$17.50 to HK$15.00 [5][9][12]. Core Insights - The company's core profit is expected to decline significantly from RMB 11.35 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.90 billion in 2024, primarily due to a decrease in sales and profit margins, alongside impairment losses [1][11]. - The report highlights that recurring income will support the company's performance in 2024, with a projected growth of 7.4% to RMB 26.7 billion, driven by rental and service income [1][9]. - The company is transitioning towards becoming a rental stock, with expectations that its profitability and financing will continue to be impacted by its real estate development business during 2025-2026 [2][9]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to decline from RMB 180.74 billion in 2023 to RMB 120.24 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 33.5% [3][10]. - Gross contracted sales are expected to drop from RMB 173.49 billion in 2023 to RMB 101.12 billion in 2024, a decline of 41.7% [10]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to decrease from 16.9% in 2023 to 15.1% in 2024, reflecting the impact of high land costs and falling property prices [1][10]. Debt and Financing - The company plans to use its land investment budget for deleveraging, aiming to repay approximately 10% of its total debt in 2024 [2][9]. - The report notes that the company has a significant amount of debt maturing in 2025, including RMB 10 billion in bonds and RMB 9.2 billion in syndicated loans [2][9]. Dividend Policy - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 30%, despite the anticipated decline in core profits [1][2].