Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry in the A-share market has shown strong resilience with nearly 90% of the 19 major dairy companies experiencing stock price increases, reflecting a robust recovery in consumer demand [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - 17 out of 19 major dairy companies in the A-share market recorded stock price increases, indicating a significant upward trend in the sector [1] - Leading the gains are regional boutique dairy companies and segment leaders, with Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) achieving a remarkable 63.46% increase, followed by Knight Dairy (920786) at 50.83% and Beingmate (002570) at 48.65% [1][2] Group 2: Industry Leaders - Industry giants Yili (600887) and Mengniu (02319.HK) continue to serve as the "industry ballast," maintaining stable performance amidst a complex market environment [2] - Yili has shown positive growth and remains a preferred choice for investors due to its solid dividend capacity and fundamental stability, while Mengniu has strengthened its global position through ongoing brand upgrades and international expansion [2] Group 3: Divergence in Performance - Despite the overall positive trend, there are exceptions with Bright Dairy (600597) and Jiahe Foods (605300) experiencing declines of 1.54% and 8.79% respectively, attributed to intense competition and cost pressures [3] - Upstream companies like Modern Dairy (01117.HK) are facing challenges due to prolonged low raw milk prices, which have severely compressed profit margins [3] - The dairy sector is transitioning from "volume growth" to "quality transformation," with leading companies and regional dark horses contributing to the industry's prosperity, despite some facing short-term challenges [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The dairy industry is expected to see investment opportunities in 2026, driven by industrial upgrades that may boost raw milk demand and a potential upward turning point in milk prices, which could help leading dairy companies recover market share [4][8] - Supply-side dynamics indicate that raw milk prices are likely to rise, benefiting upstream farming companies. The price of fresh milk has declined for over four years, reaching 3.04 RMB/kg, a 30.6% drop from the 2021 peak of 4.38 RMB/kg. It is anticipated that the price stabilization will occur in the second half of 2025, with a turning point expected in 2026, significantly improving the performance of upstream farming companies [5] - On the demand side, there are structural opportunities in dairy product consumption, with potential for deep processing and domestic substitution to create new growth curves for dairy companies. The per capita consumption of dairy products in China is projected to be 40.6 kg in 2024, still below the 47 kg target set for 2030. The consumption structure is primarily focused on liquid milk, with low proportions of dairy solids [6] Summary by Sections - **Supply-Side Analysis**: The prolonged downturn in milk prices has been influenced by macroeconomic disturbances and the expansion led by large-scale enterprises during the previous price upturn. The ongoing losses in upstream farming companies are expected to lead to a supply-side contraction, with a price turning point anticipated in 2026 [5] - **Demand-Side Analysis**: The increasing health awareness among consumers is expected to drive the growth of low-temperature milk and cheese products, which will enhance raw milk demand. Regulatory changes are also expected to support the upgrade of the dairy industry by clarifying standards for deep-processed products and improving market access [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: Based on the positive outlook for the raw milk cycle and domestic substitution of deep-processed products, leading dairy companies are expected to benefit from the recovery of market share during the price upturn. Recommended companies include Yili Group and China Shengmu, with a focus on modern farming practices [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Agriculture Sector**: The focus is on enhancing the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, consolidating the relief achievements in beef and dairy industries, and promoting supply-demand balance and healthy development [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Livestock Industry**: - Emphasis on strengthening pig production capacity regulation and consolidating the relief of beef and dairy industries to ensure a balanced supply and demand [1][5]. - Introduction of multiple measures to promote dairy product consumption [2][6]. - **Crop Production**: - Stability in grain and oil production is prioritized, with efforts to enhance soybean production capacity and expand the production space for oilseed crops such as rapeseed, peanuts, and tea oil [3][7]. - Promotion of stable development in cotton, sugar, and natural rubber industries [4][8]. - **Seed Industry**: - Implementation of seed industry revitalization actions, accelerating the breeding and promotion of breakthrough varieties, and advancing the industrialization of biotechnology [9]. - **Agricultural Technology**: - Development of new agricultural productivity tailored to local conditions, integrating artificial intelligence with agriculture, and expanding application scenarios for drones, IoT, and robotics [10]. - **Agricultural Trade**: - Coordination between agricultural trade and production is encouraged, with a push for diversification in agricultural imports [11][12]. - Cultivation of internationally competitive agricultural enterprises and support for expanding exports of advantageous specialty agricultural products [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Focus**: Attention is drawn to the effectiveness of livestock production capacity regulation, the cyclical reversal of beef and dairy industries, and the orderly advancement of seed industry revitalization [15]. - **Key Investment Targets**: Notable companies include YouRan Agriculture, Modern Animal Husbandry, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Dekang Agriculture, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [16]. - **Smart Agriculture**: The company TopCloud Agriculture is highlighted as a noteworthy entity in the smart agriculture sector [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of building an agricultural powerhouse as highlighted in the 2026 Central Document No. 1, which focuses on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, implementing precise assistance, and promoting stable income growth for farmers [7] - It stresses the need for comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and the establishment of a diversified food supply system, indicating a shift from "doing well" to "strengthening" the regulation of pig production capacity compared to the 2025 document [7] - The report outlines the goal of stabilizing grain and oil production, with a target grain output of approximately 1.4 trillion jin, and emphasizes the importance of seed industry revitalization actions [7] - It highlights the integration of artificial intelligence with agricultural development, promoting the use of drones and other technologies to enhance agricultural productivity [7] - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading seed companies that benefit from breeding innovation and the biological breeding industry, such as Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Kangnong Seeds [7] Summary by Sections Policy Insights - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 outlines three main areas: improving agricultural production capacity, implementing precise assistance, and promoting stable income growth for farmers [7] - It calls for a focus on stabilizing grain production and enhancing the diversity of oilseed supply, including increasing soybean production and expanding the cultivation of other oil crops [7] Technological Integration - The report discusses the potential of integrating AI with agriculture, including applications in autonomous farming machinery and AI pest identification, which are expected to drive improvements in agricultural efficiency [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to companies with breeding research advantages, particularly in the context of the biological breeding industry, suggesting companies like Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Kangnong Seeds as potential investment opportunities [7]

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國現代牧業控股有限公司(於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2026年2月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01117 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 1,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 1,000,000,000 ...

Core Insights - The agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points in January 2026, with a decline of 0.2% for the sector compared to a 1.7% increase for the index [15][17]. - Low-cost pig farming enterprises are showing competitive advantages, with significant performance differentiation among companies as indicated by their annual earnings forecasts [4][29]. Market Review - In January 2026, the agricultural sector's performance lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points, with the sector down 0.2% while the index rose 1.7% [15][17]. - The planting, animal health, fishery, and agricultural processing sub-sectors saw increases of 13.7%, 13.0%, 10.0%, and 6.6% respectively, while feed and livestock farming sub-sectors decreased by 0.1% and 5.1% [15][18]. Livestock Farming - The average price of live pigs in January 2026 was 12.53 CNY/kg, reflecting an 11.8% month-on-month increase but a 21.2% year-on-year decrease [29][34]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs was approximately 5.9 CNY/head, a month-on-month increase of 154 CNY/head, but a year-on-year decrease of 159.8 CNY/head [29][32]. - The average profit for purchased piglets was 47.5 CNY/head, with a month-on-month increase of 260.6 CNY/head and a year-on-year increase of 92.2% [29][32]. Raw Material Prices - In January 2026, the average spot price of corn was approximately 2365 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [48][49]. - The average spot price of wheat was about 2520 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [54]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages, such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also considering companies like Dekang Agriculture and New Hope for their potential turnaround [4][29]. - For smaller livestock companies, attention is drawn to Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [4][29].

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with several companies rated as "Outperform" and one as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that price hikes in the consumer staples sector are weaker than expected, while costs remain low [1]. - The monitored spot cost indices for six consumer goods categories have declined, while futures cost indices have primarily increased [34]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index decreased by 1.87% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.15%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.6% and the futures index by +1.81% [35]. - Glass prices have shown a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% for spot prices and an increase of 3.4% for futures prices [35]. Condiments - The spot cost index decreased by 1.37% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.03%. Year-to-date changes are -0.42% for spot and +2.23% for futures [36]. - Soybean prices have decreased by 2.4% month-on-month for spot prices, while futures prices increased by 6.7% [36]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index decreased by 1.93% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 1.58%. Year-to-date changes are -0.43% for spot and +1.68% for futures [37]. - Fresh milk prices rose to 3.04 yuan/kg, with corn prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month [37]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index decreased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.31%. Year-to-date changes are +0.79% for spot and +3.46% for futures [38]. - Palm oil prices increased by 9.6% month-on-month for spot prices [38]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index decreased by 1.74% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 0.61%. Year-to-date changes are -1.44% for spot and -0.14% for futures [39]. - Vegetable prices fell by 1.8% month-on-month [39]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index decreased by 3.71% month-on-month, while the futures index remained unchanged. Year-to-date changes are -1.12% for spot and -0.19% for futures [40]. - PET chip prices increased by 5.4% month-on-month [40].

Core Viewpoint - China Shengmu (01432) experienced a stock price increase of 14.49%, currently trading at HKD 0.395, with a trading volume of HKD 29.1831 million. This surge is linked to a potential conditional cash offer from Modern Dairy, represented by CITIC Securities, to acquire all issued shares of China Shengmu, excluding those already owned or agreed to be acquired by Modern Dairy and Start Great Holdings Limited [6]. Group 1 - The announcement on January 19 indicates that the cash offer is contingent upon the completion of a share purchase agreement, which must meet certain preconditions and be finalized before the deadline [6]. - As of the announcement date, aside from the conditions listed in the share purchase agreement, other preconditions have not yet been met or waived [6]. - Modern Dairy has received approval from independent shareholders for the related transaction, although the announcement emphasizes that the offer remains a potential conditional cash offer, with uncertainties surrounding the completion of the share purchase agreement and the offer itself [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China Shengmu (01432) experienced a nearly 6% increase in stock price, reaching HKD 0.365, with a trading volume of HKD 9.77 million [1] - On January 19, Modern Dairy and China Shengmu jointly announced a potential conditional cash offer by CITIC Securities to acquire all issued shares of China Shengmu, excluding those already owned or agreed to be acquired by Modern Dairy Holdings and Start Great Holdings Limited [1] - The offer is contingent upon the completion of a share purchase agreement, which must meet certain conditions and be finalized before the deadline [1] Group 2 - As of the announcement date, aside from the conditions listed in the share purchase agreement, other prerequisite conditions have not been met or waived [1] - Modern Dairy Holdings has received approval from independent shareholders for the related transaction [1] - The announcement emphasizes that the offer is only a potential conditional cash offer, and both the completion of the share purchase agreement and the submission of the offer carry uncertainties [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China Shengmu (01432) experienced a nearly 6% increase in stock price, reaching HKD 0.365, with a trading volume of HKD 9.77 million [1] - On January 19, Modern Dairy and China Shengmu jointly announced a potential conditional cash offer by CITIC Securities to acquire all issued shares of China Shengmu, excluding those already owned or agreed to be acquired by Modern Dairy Holdings and Start Great Holdings Limited [1] - The offer is contingent upon the completion of a share purchase agreement, which must meet certain conditions and be finalized before the deadline [1] Group 2 - As of the announcement date, aside from the conditions listed in the share purchase agreement, other prerequisite conditions have not yet been met or waived [1] - Modern Dairy Holdings has received approval from independent shareholders for the related transaction [1] - The announcement emphasizes that the offer is only a potential conditional cash offer, and both the completion of the share purchase agreement and the offer itself carry uncertainties [1]