巨子生物、润本股份更新 20250321 摘要 • 高端美妆估值普遍提升，巨子生物作为行业龙头，受益于重组胶原蛋白市 场需求端渗透率提升，通过科研、认证及合作强化市场地位，预计财报小 幅超预期，具备投资机会。 • 巨子生物医用敷料业务稳健增长，功效护肤品业务产品结构优化，大单品 培育和渠道运营超预期。可复美胶原棒表现突出，有望达 20 亿量级，皮 肤亚健康系列产品效果超预期。 • 可复美 2024 年销售额达 2 亿，预计 2025 年达 4-5 亿，增速 25%。可丽 金品牌心智提升、产品迭代及渠道转型后，2024 年增速超 30%，预计 2025 年延续 25%增长。 • 巨子生物医疗器械合规化加速，敬鹏产品获优先审评，骨修复材料获三类 证。预计 2025 年 1-2 个医美产品落地，配合公立医院渠道，重组胶原蛋 白技术应用前景广阔。 • 润本股份 2025 年 Q1 营收和利润预计增长 30%，利润率同比持平，显示 利润增长质量较高。驱蚊产品创新（定时+童锁）和婴童护理（防晒、青 少年洗护）是新增长点。 Q&A 巨子生物在美妆板块的表现如何？其估值和业绩确定性有哪些方面值得关注？ 巨子生物在美妆板块的表 ...

巨子生物 20250316 摘要 Q&A 巨子生物在新消费板块中的表现如何？ 胶原蛋白在功能性护肤品市场中的地位如何？ 胶原蛋白是功能性护肤品的重要成分之一，在中国市场上具有显著优势。与玻 尿酸、二裂酵母等传统成分相比，重组胶原蛋白更适合亚洲人的护肤习惯，并 且其功效更加全面，包括补充胶原蛋白、美白和抗衰老等多种功能。目前，中 国在重组胶原蛋白的商用化和广泛应用方面领先于海外。这一成分不仅推动了 中国功能性护肤品市场渗透率从 15%进一步提升，还带动了整个行业的发展。 巨子生物在产品布局和销售方面有哪些亮点？ 巨子生物在产品布局和销售方面表现出色。目前已有超过两款产品突破 10 亿元 销售额，并且仍有增长空间。例如，其次抛精华类产品已经达到用户心智的新 接受度，并加入了如人参皂苷等新成分。此外，公司还推出了面霜系列，该系 列去年（2024 年）实现了约 3 亿元销售额，今年（2025 年）预计可达 5 亿元左 右。面霜作为一个更大的市场，占据中国 6,000 亿护肤品市场的 25%，其客单 价更高、使用频次较高，因此具有较大的增长潜力。 巨子生物未来的发展前景如何？ 未来几年内，巨子生物有望实现显著增长。今年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Debon Securities has raised revenue and profit expectations for Juzhi Biotechnology, highlighting three major discrepancies in market perception regarding collagen products, product matrix, and medical beauty products, while emphasizing the company's long-term growth potential due to its ingredient advantages, new product layout, and channel resources [1][2]. Group 1: Collagen Product Market - The report indicates that despite some views suggesting limited growth potential for collagen stick products, data shows that the GMV for Kefu Beauty collagen sticks on Tmall and Douyin is expected to approach 2.4 billion yuan in 2024, with sales volume reaching 5.29 million units, a significant increase from 900 million yuan and 200,000 units in 2023 [1]. - Compared to other brands like Proya and Han Shu, the market ceiling for collagen sticks remains high, and Debon Securities believes that the collagen protein ingredient market is still in its growth phase, positioning Juzhi Biotechnology to benefit from market expansion [1]. Group 2: Product Matrix and New Products - Addressing concerns about the perceived singularity of Kefu Beauty's product matrix, the report highlights strong performance from new products, with a focus cream launched in 2024 achieving an online GMV of 277 million yuan in just seven months, and surpassing 100 million yuan in GMV for October alone, contributing an average of about 8% monthly [2]. - Additionally, Kefu Beauty and Keli Jin are continuously launching new products to enhance their product layout, such as the Frame Domain Repair Series set to launch in February 2025, which will be the first to apply IV-type thermoplastic collagen, providing new growth momentum for the brand [1][2]. Group 3: Medical Aesthetics Market Potential - The report analyzes Juzhi Biotechnology's potential in the medical aesthetics sector, noting that despite intense market competition, the company is accelerating its layout in Class III medical devices, with a bone repair material registration certificate expected in December 2024 and four new medical beauty products in the pipeline [2]. - With a comprehensive indication layout and channel advantages, Juzhi Biotechnology is anticipated to achieve rapid growth in the medical aesthetics market [2]. Group 4: Revenue and Profit Forecast - Based on the analysis, Debon Securities has adjusted Juzhi Biotechnology's revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 5.379 billion yuan, 6.951 billion yuan, and 8.790 billion yuan, respectively, while the net profit forecasts are set at 2.060 billion yuan, 2.609 billion yuan, and 3.213 billion yuan [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite pressures, the company has potential for growth through its focus on collagen products, new product launches, and advantages in medical channels [6][41]. - The collagen protein market is still in its growth phase, providing significant opportunities for the company as a market leader [9][30]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative increase compared to the Hang Seng Index, with absolute growth rates of 5.37% over one month and 7.46% over two months [4]. Financial Data and Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5.379 billion HKD in 2024 to 8.790 billion HKD in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.88%, 26.65%, and 23.17% respectively [5][41]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 2.060 billion HKD in 2024 to 3.213 billion HKD in 2026, with corresponding growth rates [5][41]. Investment Highlights - The report identifies three key areas of expectation: 1. **Collagen Product Ceiling**: Concerns exist regarding the sales ceiling of the collagen stick product, but the collagen market is still growing, indicating potential for expansion [6][9]. 2. **New Product Pipeline**: The company is expanding its product lineup, with new launches expected to contribute to revenue growth [12][18]. 3. **Medical Aesthetics Market**: The company is well-positioned in the medical aesthetics sector, with recent approvals for new products that could capture significant market share [30][39]. Product Performance - The collagen stick product has achieved significant sales, with projected sales of nearly 2.4 billion HKD in 2024, indicating strong market demand [6][7]. - New products, such as the focus cream, have exceeded expectations in early sales, contributing positively to the overall revenue [18][19]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that while competition in the collagen market is increasing, the company’s established position and product offerings provide a competitive edge [23][30]. - The medical aesthetics market is characterized by high growth potential, with the company’s recent product approvals enhancing its market position [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Insights - The company has received exclusive patent approval for recombinant human type IV collagen, which is expected to significantly enhance its medical beauty business prospects [1][2]. - The recombinant human type IV collagen exhibits outstanding efficacy in skin repair and soothing, with proven biological activities such as enhancing barrier-related proteins and inhibiting inflammatory factors [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding its application of recombinant human type IV collagen, solidifying its position as a global leader in recombinant collagen [2]. - The company's medical beauty products have received priority approval, indicating strong growth potential for its recombinant collagen-related business [3]. - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 2.13 billion, 2.70 billion, and 3.24 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 45.1%, 26.6%, and 20.1% [3][4]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 3.52 billion RMB in 2023 to 8.76 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 49.0%, 50.6%, 33.6%, and 23.6% for the respective years [4][6]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to increase from 1.47 billion RMB in 2023 to 3.24 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 39%, 45%, 27%, and 20% [4][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) based on adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 1.42 RMB in 2024 to 3.13 RMB in 2026 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company has received exclusive patent approval for recombinant human type IV collagen, which opens new applications in the medical beauty sector [1][2]. - The recombinant human type IV collagen exhibits significant efficacy in skin repair and soothing, enhancing barrier-related proteins and inhibiting inflammatory factors [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings and has established a strong position as a global leader in recombinant collagen [2][3]. - The medical beauty products have received priority approval, indicating strong growth potential for the company's collagen-related business [3]. - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 2.13 billion, 2.70 billion, and 3.24 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 45.1%, 26.6%, and 20.1% [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections are 5.31 billion, 7.09 billion, and 8.76 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, reflecting growth rates of 50.6%, 33.6%, and 23.6% respectively [4][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) based on adjusted net profit are forecasted to be 2.06, 2.60, and 3.13 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 26x, 21x, and 17x for the same years [4][6].

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 66 0, implying a potential upside of 23 8% from the current price of HKD 53 3 [1][4] Core Views - The company's management has raised the 2024 full-year performance guidance, expecting revenue growth of around 50% and net profit growth of around 40% [1] - The company's main brand, Kefumei, achieved a GMV growth of 78 1% in 2024, driven by strong performance during the "Double 11" shopping festival and new product launches [1] - The company has raised its 2024 performance guidance three times, reflecting strong confidence in achieving its targets [2] - The company is expected to maintain high growth in 2025, driven by the expansion of key products and improved brand strength of its two major brands, Kefumei and Kelijing [2] - The company's medical aesthetic products are expected to be approved as scheduled, with the injection recombinant collagen product for eye wrinkles expected to be approved in Q1 2025 [3] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is expected to reach RMB 5,377 million, a 52 6% YoY increase, with net profit expected to reach RMB 2,044 million, a 40 8% YoY increase [9] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 82 3% in 2024E, with an operating margin of 42 4% [10] - The company's ROE is expected to be 34 7% in 2024E, gradually declining to 32 4% by 2026E [9] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 24 6x in 2024E to 15 0x in 2026E, reflecting strong earnings growth [9] Product and Brand Performance - Kefumei's GMV grew by 78 1% in 2024, with a growth rate of over 80% during the "Double 11" period [1] - Kelijing's GMV grew by over 150% during the "Double 11" period, driven by core products such as the Pong Pong Essence and Collagen Series [1] - The new product, Focus Cream, launched in 2024, has contributed to Kefumei's growth, providing a new growth driver beyond the Collagen Stick [1] Market and Industry Context - The company's stock price has shown strong performance, with a 52-week range of HKD 28 5 to HKD 58 0, and a current market capitalization of HKD 54,804 million [4] - The company's daily average trading volume over the past three months was HKD 164 2 million, indicating strong market interest [4] - The company is part of the cosmetics industry, with peers such as Proya and Shanghai Jahwa also showing strong performance [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 69.19, up from HKD 66.15, indicating a potential upside of 33.8% from the current price of HKD 51.70 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has shown impressive online growth in 2024, with a projected revenue increase of over 50% and a net profit growth of around 40%. The GMV for its brands, 可复美 and 可丽金, reached RMB 5.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57% across major online platforms [1][6]. - The report highlights the strong performance of 可复美 on Tmall and Taobao, with a GMV growth of 42%, ranking second in the market. The anticipated approval of a new collagen injection product is expected to further drive growth in 2025 [1][6]. - 可丽金 is also experiencing rapid growth, with a GMV of RMB 660 million in 2024, reflecting a 103% year-on-year increase, driven by key product launches [1][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,524 million in FY23 to RMB 5,406 million in FY24, representing a growth rate of 53.4%. The adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,451.8 million in FY23 to RMB 2,108.6 million in FY24, a growth of 45.2% [2][36]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, with revenue estimates for FY25 and FY26 at RMB 7,288 million and RMB 9,729 million, respectively, indicating continued strong growth [2][36]. - The company’s net debt ratio is projected to increase, reflecting a shift towards a more leveraged capital structure as it invests in growth opportunities [2][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company Giant Bio (02367.HK) [2][4]. Core Insights - The National Medical Products Administration approved Giant Bio's bone repair materials as a Class III medical device, aligning with the previously expected timeline in the prospectus [3]. - The market for collagen-based biomedical materials has grown from 1 billion RMB in 2017 to 3.2 billion RMB in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.5%, projected to reach 19.9 billion RMB by 2027, with a CAGR of 35.1% from 2022 to 2027 [3]. - The report highlights the potential for hydroxyapatite in the aesthetic medicine sector, noting its advantages in bone defect filling and soft tissue injection, with a longer-lasting effect compared to traditional fillers [3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast upwards, expecting net profits of 2.09 billion RMB, 2.55 billion RMB, and 3.06 billion RMB for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of 43%, 22%, and 20% respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Giant Bio's bone repair materials are designed for dental and alveolar bone defects, utilizing hydroxyapatite particles and macromolecular polysaccharides for effective bone regeneration [3]. Market Analysis - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting that other companies like Aojing Medical Technology and Tianjin Sain Bio have also received approvals for similar composite bone repair materials [3]. - The aesthetic medicine market for hydroxyapatite is still developing, with no approved Class III products currently available in China, indicating potential growth opportunities [3]. Financial Projections - The report projects revenue growth from 2.36 billion RMB in 2022 to 5.36 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 52.16% [4]. - The expected return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 35.36% in 2022 to 25.20% by 2026, reflecting a strong but decreasing profitability trend [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 73.96 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company has received its first Class III medical device registration certificate for bone repair materials, indicating promising prospects [1]. - Another Class III medical device, "Injectable Recombinant Collagen Filler" for neck wrinkles, has entered a priority approval channel, potentially shortening its market launch time [1][3]. - The company is expected to receive approval for its eye wrinkle filler product in Q1 2025, which could significantly enhance its performance in the aesthetic medicine sector [1]. - Recent progress in the aesthetic medicine field alleviates market concerns regarding the approval timeline for the company's products, showcasing its R&D capabilities [1]. - The company’s revenue growth is projected to be robust, with expected net profits of RMB 1.998 billion, RMB 2.510 billion, and RMB 3.078 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][14]. Summary by Sections Medical Device Approvals - The company has obtained a Class III medical device registration certificate for bone repair materials, targeting dental and jawbone defects, with a market size of approximately RMB 2.67 billion for oral repair membranes and RMB 6.68 billion for bone powder in China [2]. - The injectable collagen filler for neck wrinkles is included in the national key R&D plan for medical devices, qualifying for expedited approval [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 2.364 billion in 2022 to RMB 8.385 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.64% [7][14]. - The net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1.002 billion in 2022 to RMB 3.078 billion in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [7][14]. - The company maintains a favorable valuation with a projected PE ratio of 28 times for 2025, indicating significant potential for earnings growth [5][12]. Market Position - The company has demonstrated strong growth momentum, with notable GMV increases in its product lines, such as a 69% year-on-year increase for its product "可复美" and a 172% increase for "可丽金" on Douyin [4]. - The company’s aesthetic medicine products, if approved, are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, similar to competitors like 锦波生物 and 爱美客 [1][4].