[Table_Stock] 巨子生物（02367） 证 券 研 究 报 告 港 股 研 究（ 公 司 点 评 ） [行业Table_Industry] : 美容护理 日期: shzqdatemark 2024年08月20日 | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------------| | [Table_Author]分析师: | 梁瑞 | | Tel: | 021-53686409 | | E-mail: | liangrui@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870523110001 | [Table_BaseInfo] 基本数据 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------------| | 最新收盘价（港元） | 49.35 | | 12mth 港股价格区间（港元） | 29.30-53.15 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,028.22 | | 流通股/总股本 | 0.00% | | 流通市值（亿港元） | 507.43 | [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Giant Biogene (02367 HK) with a target price of HKD 54 40, compared to the current price of HKD 39 45 [1] Core Views - Giant Biogene achieved strong revenue and profit growth in H1 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 2 54 billion, up 58 2% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 980 million, up 47 4% YoY [2] - The company's gross margin slightly decreased to 82 4% (-1 7pct YoY), while net margin stood at 38 6% (-2 9pct YoY), mainly due to the faster growth of lower-margin cosmetic products [2] - The flagship brand Kefumei (可复美) saw revenue growth of 68 6% YoY to RMB 2 07 billion, accounting for 81 5% of total revenue, driven by strong online sales and new product launches [2] - The company's online revenue reached RMB 1 77 billion, up 69 3% YoY, accounting for 69 7% of total revenue, with improved operational efficiency [2] - The report expects the company to benefit from potential approval of Class III medical device licenses for recombinant collagen products in 2025, opening a new growth curve [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 5 126 billion, up 45 4% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1 956 billion, up 34 7% YoY [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 82 4% in 2024E, with net margin at 38 2% [2] - The report forecasts a 3-year revenue CAGR of 28% from 2024E to 2026E, with net profit CAGR of 26 9% [2] Product and Brand Strategy - Kefumei's collagen stick became the top-selling facial essence product on Tmall during the 618 shopping festival, with GMV growth exceeding 60% [2] - The company is building a diversified product matrix, with new launches such as the Focus Cream and Order Spot Stick gaining traction [2] - The Kelinge (可丽金) brand achieved 23 6% YoY revenue growth in H1 2024, with online GMV growth exceeding 100% during the 618 period [2] Valuation - The report values the company at 25x 2024E PE, based on its strong brand momentum and expected medical aesthetics growth [2] - The target price of HKD 54 40 implies a 38% upside from the current price [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 46.38 HKD, based on a 22x PE valuation for 2024 [2][4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 58.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 980 million, up 47.4%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The brand "可复美" showed significant growth, with a revenue increase of 68.6% in H1 2024, driven by strong sales of its collagen products and successful new product launches [1]. - Direct sales revenue grew by 69.7%, with online direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales increasing by 64.1% and offline sales by 82.2% [1]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 82.4%, attributed to an increase in product types and sales costs [1]. - The report indicates that the company's strong performance in H1 reflects its brand momentum and product strength, with a focus on clinical approvals for medical devices in the future [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million) for the years 2022A to 2026E is projected as follows: 2,364, 3,524, 5,115, 6,526, and 8,134, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.3%, 49.0%, 45.1%, 27.6%, and 24.6% respectively [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million) is forecasted to be 1,002, 1,452, 1,980, 2,461, and 2,997 for the same period, with growth rates of 21.0%, 44.9%, 36.4%, 24.3%, and 21.8% [3]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.97, 1.41, 1.93, 2.39, and 2.92 for the years 2022A to 2026E [3].

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company reported a research and development expenditure of 49 million, which accounts for 1.9% of its revenue as of the reporting period [1] - As of the end of the reporting period, the company has obtained a total of 133 patents, including 40 new patents added during the reporting period [1] - The company has received recognition for three patents, which were awarded the PCQ International Invention Award [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Giant Biogene [2][21]. Core Insights - Giant Biogene reported revenue of RMB 25.4 billion for 1H24, a year-on-year increase of 58%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 12% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 48% to RMB 9.83 billion, also surpassing consensus estimates by 13% [1]. - The Comfy brand showed strong growth, with revenue increasing by 69% to RMB 20.7 billion in 1H24 [1]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and market reach, despite a slight decrease in gross margin to 82.4% [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow to RMB 50.89 billion in FY24E, representing a 44% year-on-year increase, and to RMB 68.60 billion in FY25E, a 35% increase [6][15]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 18.77 billion in FY24E and RMB 24.35 billion in FY25E, with growth rates of 36% and 26% respectively [2][6]. Financial Summary - The company reported a gross profit of RMB 41.84 billion for FY24E, with a gross margin of 82.20% [6][15]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is projected at RMB 1.83, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.1 [6][19]. - The target price for the stock is set at HKD 62.07, reflecting a potential upside of 52.3% from the current price of HKD 40.75 [4][11]. Market Position and Brand Performance - The Comfy brand's flagship product, Comfy Collagen Stick, is expected to see revenue growth of approximately 50% in April 2024 [1]. - The company is actively expanding its offline sales channels for the Comfy brand, which has shown explosive potential during promotional events [1]. - The Collgene brand has also seen significant online sales growth, contributing to 23.6% of total revenue in 1H24 [1].

21 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Giant Biogene (2367 HK) Sales of Comfy brand surpass expectations 1H24 earnings beat, fueled by the rapid growth of Comfy brand. Giant Biogene reported 1H24 revenue of RMB2,540mn, up 58% YoY and 12% above Bloomberg consensus estimates, accounting for 55% of our full-year estimate. Attributable net profit increased by 48% YoY to RMB983mn, which was 13% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates, accounting for 57% of our full-year es ...

Investment Rating - Buy | Maintain [2] Core Viewpoints - 24H1 performance exceeded expectations with a 47% YoY increase in net profit attributable to the parent company [3] - Revenue for 24H1 reached RMB 2.54 billion, a 58.21% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 983 million, up 47.41% YoY [3] - Adjusted net profit for 24H1 was RMB 1.027 billion, a 51.77% YoY increase [3] - Gross margin for 24H1 was 82.4%, down 1.74 percentage points YoY due to product expansion and increased sales costs [3] - Sales expense ratio for 24H1 was 35.11%, up 0.54 percentage points YoY, driven by rapid expansion of online direct sales channels [3] - Management expense ratio for 24H1 was 2.58%, down 0.37 percentage points YoY, while R&D expense ratio was 1.92%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY [3] Brand and Channel Performance - Kefumei brand revenue for 24H1 was RMB 2.071 billion, a 68.6% YoY increase, driven by the star product "Collagen Stick" and new product "Focus Series" [4] - Kelijing brand revenue for 24H1 was RMB 396 million, a 23.6% YoY increase, with new products like "Collagen Eye Cream" and "Collagen Face Cream" contributing to growth [4] - Direct sales channels accounted for 72.4% of total revenue in 24H1, with DTC online direct sales contributing 63.1%, a 64.1% YoY increase [4] - Distribution channels accounted for 27.6% of total revenue, up 34.4% YoY [4] - Online sales on platforms like Tmall and Douyin grew rapidly, with Kefumei and Kelijing achieving over 60% and 100% growth respectively during the 618 shopping festival [4] - Offline channels covered approximately 1,500 public hospitals, 2,700 private hospitals and clinics (200 more than in 2023), 650 chain pharmacies, and around 6,000 CS/KA stores [4] - The company opened about 10 new stores in key cities like Xi'an, Chongqing, and Chengdu, and launched its first flagship store in June [4] Production and Expansion - The company added one new production line each for cosmetics and medical devices in 24H1 [4] - A new medical device factory is expected to be operational within the year [4] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.951 billion, RMB 2.435 billion, and RMB 2.957 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] - The corresponding P/E ratios are 19x, 16x, and 13x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] Industry Position - The company is a leader in collagen-based professional skin care products in China, with a strong focus on R&D and a portfolio of eight consumer brands [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Giant Biogene (2367 HK) with a target price of HKD 52 0, implying a potential upside of 27 5% from the current price of HKD 40 8 [4][2] Core Views - Giant Biogene's 1H24 results exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit growing 58 2% and 47 4% YoY, respectively, surpassing both the company's guidance and market expectations [2] - The strong performance was driven by the Kefumei brand, which saw a 68 6% YoY revenue increase, contributing 81 5% of total revenue [2] - Online sales grew 69 3% YoY, accounting for 69 7% of total revenue, reflecting the company's successful e-commerce strategy [2] - Management raised full-year guidance, expecting revenue growth slightly above 40% and adjusted net profit growth of around 35%, demonstrating confidence in achieving targets [2] - The company's long-term growth is supported by product matrix expansion and omnichannel development, with new products performing well during the 618 shopping festival [2] - The approval timeline for medical aesthetic products has been delayed to 1Q25 due to stricter regulatory requirements, but the impact on profitability is expected to be limited [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3 524 million in 2023 to RMB 9 025 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 37 0% [3] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1 452 million in 2023 to RMB 3 322 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 31 0% [3] - The company's gross margin remains strong, forecasted at 82 3% in 2024 and 81 9% in 2026 [3] - ROE is expected to stabilize around 32% from 2024 to 2026, down from 52 0% in 2022, reflecting the company's maturing growth profile [3] - The PE ratio is projected to decline from 25 7x in 2023 to 11 8x in 2026, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [3] Industry Context - Giant Biogene operates in the cosmetics industry, which is highly competitive, particularly in the online channel [2] - The company's focus on collagen-based products and medical aesthetics positions it well in the premium skincare segment [2] - The delay in medical aesthetic product approvals highlights the increasing regulatory scrutiny in the industry [2] Peer Comparison - Among covered cosmetics companies, Giant Biogene has a "Buy" rating, similar to Proya (603605 CH) and Betaine (300957 CH), while Huaxi Biotech (688363 CH) has a "Hold" rating [9] - The target price implies a 2024E PE of 19 8x, which is lower than some peers like Proya (24 4x) but higher than Betaine (14 5x) [9][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2][13]. Core Insights - The company reported revenue of 2.54 billion yuan for 1H24, a year-on-year increase of 58% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 983 million yuan, up 47% year-on-year and 25% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding expectations [3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories and enhancing its online presence, which has led to a slight decline in gross margin and an increase in sales expense ratio, but overall profitability remains manageable [3]. - The performance of key products, particularly the collagen stick, continues to drive growth, with a revenue of 2.07 billion yuan for the "Kefumei" brand, reflecting a 69% year-on-year increase [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report revises the profit forecast upwards due to the strong performance in 1H24, projecting adjusted net profits of 2.03 billion, 2.52 billion, and 3.01 billion yuan for 2024-2026, representing growth rates of 38%, 24%, and 20% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.94 billion, 2.43 billion, and 2.92 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 34%, 25%, and 21% respectively [4]. Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 5.21 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 47.89%, and net profit is expected to be 1.94 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 34% [7]. - The report highlights a decrease in gross margin by 1.7% year-on-year and a net profit margin of 38.7%, down 2.8% year-on-year [3][4]. Product Performance - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel has shown significant growth, with revenue from DTC stores increasing by 64% year-on-year, contributing to 63.1% of total revenue [3]. - The focus on new product launches, particularly in the skincare segment, is expected to enhance brand recognition and drive future sales [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in H1 2024, with revenue of 2.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 983 million yuan, up 47.4% year-on-year [3] - The company is a leader in the restructured collagen market, with strong brand and product capabilities, and is expected to expand its skin rejuvenation offerings [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Total revenue for 2022A was 2.375 billion yuan, increasing to 3.526 billion yuan in 2023A, and projected to reach 5.018 billion yuan in 2024E, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.32% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.002 billion yuan in 2022A, expected to grow to 1.955 billion yuan in 2024E, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.66% [2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.41 yuan in 2023A to 1.90 yuan in 2024E [9] - The company maintains a high gross margin of 82.4% in H1 2024, slightly down from the previous year due to product type expansion [3] Channel Performance Summary - E-commerce direct sales showed impressive growth, with DTC online sales increasing by 64.1% and online direct sales by 143.3% in H1 2024 [3] - The company has expanded its offline OTC presence, entering approximately 1,500 public hospitals and 2,700 private hospitals and clinics by H1 2024 [3] Brand Performance Summary - The brand "Kefumei" continues to experience high growth, with revenue increasing by 68.6% in H1 2024, while "Keli Jin" grew by 23.6% [3] - The company has launched new products targeting skin sub-health, with the "Focus Series" performing well in the market [3] Profitability Metrics - The company’s sales net profit margin was 38.6% in H1 2024, impacted by stock incentive expenses [3] - The company’s operating profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 2.27 billion yuan in 2024E and 2.91 billion yuan in 2025E [8]