Core Viewpoint - The listing of the tea beverage brand "沪上阿姨" marks a significant milestone in the capitalization process of the new tea beverage industry, reflecting the increasing competition and investment interest in this sector [1][2]. Company Summary - "沪上阿姨" plans to issue approximately 2.41 million H-shares at a price range of HKD 95.57 to HKD 113.12, aiming to raise over HKD 2.7 billion, with a potential market capitalization exceeding HKD 30 billion [1]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% in revenue over the past three years and has surpassed 6,000 stores, particularly excelling in lower-tier markets [2]. - The IPO includes a 15% over-allotment option, which could increase the total issuance to about 2.77 million shares [1]. Industry Summary - The IPO of "沪上阿姨" is significant as it is the second independent tea beverage brand to go public after "奈雪的茶," serving as a barometer for market valuation attitudes towards the tea beverage sector [2]. - The timing of the IPO is strategic, coinciding with the post-May Day holiday consumer market recovery, which is expected to enhance market attention [1]. - The pricing reflects a valuation logic where the lower limit corresponds to a 2023 price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 35 times, while the upper limit approaches 40 times, indicating a higher valuation compared to traditional dining enterprises but at a slight discount to similar listed tea brands [1].

Core Viewpoint - Hu Shang Ayi (Shanghai) Industrial Co., Ltd. is launching an IPO in Hong Kong, facing challenges such as declining revenue and profit, while heavily relying on a franchise model for its business expansion [2][3][9]. Group 1: IPO Details - The company plans to issue 2.4113 million shares at a price range of HKD 95.57 to HKD 113.12, with an expected listing date of May 8 [2][3]. - Two cornerstone investors, Yingfeng Holdings and Huabao Holdings, have subscribed for shares totaling approximately USD 921.55 million (around HKD 71.49 million) [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Hu Shang Ayi reported a revenue of RMB 32.85 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, and a net profit of RMB 3.29 billion, down 15.2% [9][10]. - The gross profit margin increased to 31.3% in 2024, but the net profit margin decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 10% [10]. - The company's total GMV reached RMB 107 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 10%, although average single-store GMV fell by 12% to RMB 1.37 million [11]. Group 3: Business Model and Franchise Dependency - As of the end of 2024, 99.7% of Hu Shang Ayi's 9,176 stores were operated by franchisees, indicating a strong reliance on the franchise model [13][14]. - Revenue from franchise-related activities accounted for 96.5% of total income in 2024, highlighting the company's dependency on this model for growth [14][15]. Group 4: Cash Dividends and Founder Earnings - The company distributed significant cash dividends during its IPO period, with a total of RMB 2.19 billion in cash dividends declared, of which over 80% went to the founders, Dan Weijun and Zhou Rongrong [7][9]. Group 5: Food Safety Concerns - Recent reports have raised food safety issues, including the use of expired ingredients in products, which could impact the brand's reputation and consumer trust [16][20]. - Complaints regarding product quality and customer service have been prevalent, with numerous reports of unsatisfactory experiences from consumers [21][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "5.5" for the IPO, based on various criteria [6][7]. Core Insights - The company, Hu Shang A Yi, is a leading chain in the fresh tea beverage market in China, operating through a franchise model with product prices ranging from 7 to 22 RMB [1]. - Revenue projections for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are 2.2 billion, 3.35 billion, and 3.28 billion RMB, with growth rates of 34%, 52%, and -1.9% respectively [1]. - The company has a significant market presence, with a total of 9,176 stores as of December 2024, 50% of which are located in tier-three cities and below [2]. - The fresh tea beverage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a market size of 258.5 billion RMB and a growth rate of 19% [3]. Company Overview - Hu Shang A Yi has established a robust supply chain network across China, including 12 major logistics warehouses and various cold chain facilities [4]. - The brand has gained national recognition since its inception in 2013, leveraging social media and collaborations to enhance its market presence [4]. - The company has seen significant store growth, with net increases of 1,531, 2,482, and 1,387 stores in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, indicating a strong expansion strategy [1]. Industry Status and Outlook - The fresh beverage market in China is projected to continue its rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.5% from 2018 to 2023 [3]. - Hu Shang A Yi ranks first in store count in northern China and holds a 4.6% market share by GMV, placing it fifth overall in the industry [3]. Investment Considerations - The IPO price range is set between 95.57 and 113.12 HKD, with a post-IPO market capitalization estimated at 10 to 11.8 billion HKD [6][7]. - The company has secured cornerstone investors, including Yingfeng Holdings and Huabao, which have committed to 24.7% of the total issuance [6].

Group 1 - The company "沪上阿姨" has officially launched its IPO, planning to globally offer 2.41134 million H-shares, with a price range of HKD 95.57 to HKD 113.12 per share, and is expected to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 8 [1][3] - The company has introduced two cornerstone investors, with a total subscription amount of approximately USD 9.2155 million (around HKD 71.49 million) [3] - As of the end of 2023, "沪上阿姨" ranks fourth in China's ready-to-drink tea industry with 9,176 stores, and is the leading mid-priced tea brand in northern China, with 99.7% of its stores being franchise operations [3] Group 2 - The company focuses on lower-tier markets, with nearly half of its stores located in third-tier cities and below, which are expected to see the fastest GMV growth from 2023 to 2028 [3] - The projected GMV for 2024 is CNY 10.7 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year, despite a decline in average GMV per store from CNY 1.6 million in 2023 to CNY 1.4 million [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 30.4% to 31.3% due to economies of scale [3] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the price war in the tea beverage industry will ease by 2025, allowing leading brands to expand while weaker brands may face closure risks [3] - "沪上阿姨" is expected to leverage its first-mover advantage in lower-tier markets and its supply chain integration capabilities to navigate industry differentiation [3] - The company plans to invest further in digital tools and smart manufacturing equipment to enhance supply chain efficiency and product quality [3]

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