买入（首次） 所属行业：钟表珠宝 当前价格（港元）：74.50 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 张望 资格编号：S0120524010002 邮箱：zhangwang＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 老铺黄金 恒生指数 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-----------------|-------| | | | | | 恒 生 指 数 对 比 | 1M 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | 99.75 99.75 | 99.75 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | 102.85 107.17 | 95.95 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | 相关研究 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司首次覆盖 老铺黄金(06181.HK) 2024 年 07 月 28 日 老铺黄金（6181.HK）： 古法传承，奢品营运 投资要点 古 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [1][20]. Core Insights - The company, Laopu Gold, is a leading brand in the ancient gold category in China, maintaining a strong reputation among high-net-worth clients due to its product quality and service [1]. - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with a projected net profit of approximately 5.5 to 6 billion RMB for H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 180% to 205% [2]. - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow substantially, with total revenue expected to reach 5,681.56 million RMB in 2024, representing a 78.69% increase from 2023 [5]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for Laopu Gold is expected to be 997.10 million RMB in 2024, 1,248.10 million RMB in 2025, and 1,482.56 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 139.51%, 25.17%, and 18.79% respectively [2][5]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to rise from 2.47 RMB in 2023 to 5.92 RMB in 2024, and further to 8.81 RMB by 2026 [5][18]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 31.22 in 2023 to 13.03 in 2024, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [5][18]. Market Position and Strategy - Laopu Gold operates a fully direct sales model, achieving higher average store revenue compared to traditional jewelry franchise stores, with a coverage rate of 80% in China's top high-end shopping centers [3][10]. - The brand focuses on high-net-worth clients, leveraging its cultural and luxury attributes to enhance its market presence and profitability [10].

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Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - Laopuhuang, established in 2009, is a leading brand in promoting "ancient method gold" in China, holding a market share of 2.0% in the ancient method gold jewelry market and 0.6% in the overall gold jewelry market as of 2023 [1]. - The company has experienced rapid growth, with revenue increasing from 1.265 billion to 3.180 billion, a CAGR of 58.6% from 2021 to 2023. Gross profit rose from 521 million to 1.332 billion, with a CAGR of 59.8%, and net profit surged from 114 million to 416 million, reflecting a CAGR of 91.0% [1]. - Laopuhuang operates 33 stores across mainland China and Hong Kong, targeting high-end consumers in top luxury shopping centers [20]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Laopuhuang is recognized for its craftsmanship, inheriting traditional techniques from the Qing Dynasty, including flower wire inlay and gold-silver techniques, which are classified as national intangible cultural heritage [5]. - The company’s unique selling proposition lies in its exclusive use of a fixed-price model for gold jewelry, which positions it as a premium brand despite not being significantly more expensive than competitors when comparing gold weight to price [8][22]. Market Position - The company has successfully captured a growing consumer interest in gold jewelry, particularly as consumers shift from diamond-set luxury items to gold due to rising gold prices and a preference for safer investments [12]. - In the first half of 2024, Laopuhuang's sales surpassed those of four major international luxury jewelry brands in select high-end malls, indicating a strong acceptance among affluent consumers [12]. Future Plans - Laopuhuang plans to open 8 new stores in mainland China and 5 in overseas markets, including Hong Kong and Macau, over the next two years [20].

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