Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4]. Core Insights - The company has launched a share incentive plan to attract and retain core talent, reflecting confidence in long-term development. The overseas store expansion is progressing smoothly, with sales in various domestic locations performing well. The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised, with expected net profits of 1.303 billion, 2.302 billion, and 3.230 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 7.74, 13.67, and 19.18 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 55.2, 31.2, and 22.3 times for the respective years [4][5]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from 1.294 billion yuan in 2022 to 17.452 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.3%, 145.7%, 148.0%, 60.1%, and 38.2% respectively [8]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 95 million yuan in 2022 to 3.230 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -16.5%, 340.4%, 213.0%, 76.7%, and 40.3% respectively [8]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 41.6%, while the net margin is expected to improve from 7.3% in 2022 to 18.5% in 2026 [8]. - Return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 10.9% in 2022 to 29.4% in 2026 [8]. - The diluted EPS is expected to grow from 0.69 yuan in 2022 to 19.18 yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 619.0 to 22.3 times [8].

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·商贸零售 老铺黄金（06181.HK） 公司发布股权激励计划，春节销售旺引领市 场热度 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1294 | 3180 | 7147 | 11848 | 15923 | | 同比(%) | 2.34 | 145.67 | 124.78 | 65.77 | 34.40 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 94.53 | 416.30 | 1,225.65 | 2,157.31 | 3,030.42 | | 同比(%) | (16.99) | 340.40 | 194.41 | 76.01 | 40.47 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.56 | 2.47 | 7.28 | 12.81 | 18.00 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 751.74 | 170.70 | 57.98 | 32.94 | 23.45 | [Table_Ta ...

证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 饰品 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 02 月 16 日 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 02 | 月 | 日 | 13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | | 444.00 | | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | | | | 470.00/60.95 | | 元） | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | | 74,754.81 | | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | | 42,080.04 | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 24.57 | | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | | 老铺黄金(06181.HK) 投资评级： 增持（维持） ——高端古法黄金龙头 旺季销售表现靓丽 投资要点： 源 ...

中国 证券研究 2025 年 2 月 6 日 老铺黄金 - H 实地调研显示销售势头强劲，置于正面催化剂观察； "增持"评级 ▲ 我们看好老铺在整体消费存在不确定性情况下的增长能见度，春 节节前和节中对上海（老铺豫园精品店）进行的实地渠道调研， 令我们信心增强。我们的主要观察结果包括：1) 销售势头火热（ 每小时 10-20 笔订单），客流量强劲（尽管约一分钟发一个号， 排队时长达 80-100 分钟），即使几乎没有折扣；2) 优质的零售体 验：为排队等候的顾客提供热水（其他品牌提供常温水）、暖宝 宝、高端品牌巧克力和饼干；3) 进一步向目标客户群渗透：70- 75%为新客户，消费能力稳健（穿着中高端国际品牌；携带奢侈 品牌手袋），追求时尚（搭配流行 IP 配饰）。我们预计老铺将继 续保持这一势头，驱动力包括公司的品牌价值建设、产品创新、 国潮流行趋势下的强大价值主张，以及金价上涨（本年迄今上涨 8%）。我们将 2025-26 年盈利预测上调 12-14%。我们调整后的截 至 2025 年 12 月的目标价为 469 港元，对应 30 倍的 12 个月动态市 盈率。重申"增持"评级。我们将老铺置于正面催化剂观 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call discusses a high-end jewelry brand, specifically focusing on its market position and growth strategies in the luxury goods sector. Key Points Industry and Market Position - The company is positioned in the luxury jewelry market, emphasizing its unique brand identity and product offerings that blend international design with Chinese cultural elements [2][4][12]. - The brand has been recognized for its innovative approach to traditional gold jewelry, being the first to promote ancient gold concepts and fine craftsmanship [4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 3.5 billion yuan, marking a nearly 150% year-over-year increase, surpassing the total revenue for 2023 [6]. - The company reported a profit of 600 million yuan in the same period, reflecting a nearly 200% increase, with a profit margin of approximately 17%, up by nearly 3 percentage points year-over-year [6][8]. Sales Channels and Growth Strategy - The company employs a hybrid sales model, with about 90% of revenue generated from offline sales, while online platforms serve to enhance brand visibility [7]. - The brand plans to expand its physical presence, with a focus on high-end shopping centers, and aims to open new stores in Singapore and other Asian markets by 2025 [3][19]. Product and Pricing Strategy - The company has implemented a pricing strategy that includes biannual price increases, with recent adjustments ranging from 4% to 11% for various product categories [18]. - The brand's products are positioned in the price range of 10,000 to 50,000 yuan, with a unique one-price strategy that enhances its premium appeal [9][10]. Competitive Advantages - The brand's competitive edge lies in its craftsmanship, cultural significance, and the ability to create a strong brand identity that resonates with consumers [12][24]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founder and his family holding 62% of shares, which supports long-term strategic planning [4]. Consumer Trends and Market Potential - The brand targets affluent consumers, particularly women, and has a growing loyal customer base of approximately 93,000 members [25][26]. - The luxury goods market in Asia, particularly in China, is experiencing a shift, with a noted slowdown in sales growth for luxury items, indicating a need for brands to adapt to changing consumer preferences [11]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates significant growth potential, with plans to increase its store count and expand into new markets, projecting revenues of 11.5 billion yuan and 16 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [36]. - The brand's valuation is expected to align with leading luxury brands, with a target price-to-earnings ratio of around 25 times by 2026 [38]. Additional Insights - The company has a strong design team with over 12 experienced jewelry designers, ensuring high-quality product development [16]. - The brand's marketing strategy includes creating a luxurious in-store experience, with personalized customer service and exclusive member benefits [20][22]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic positioning, financial performance, and future growth prospects in the luxury jewelry market.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Laopu Gold, indicating strong growth potential and a favorable market position [17][91]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold has demonstrated exceptional performance with a stock price increase of 385% since its listing, significantly outperforming the Hong Kong consumer sector [18]. - The company achieved revenue and net profit growth of 148% and 198% respectively in the first half of 2024, driven by brand recognition and rising gold prices [54][61]. - The report highlights Laopu Gold's unique positioning in the high-end jewelry market, focusing on traditional craftsmanship and emotional value, appealing particularly to younger consumers [13][69]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Laopu Gold's revenue for 2023 reached 3.18 billion RMB, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 58.6% from 2021 to 2023 [61]. - The company maintained a stable gross margin of approximately 41% over the past three years, indicating effective cost management [61]. - The average single-store revenue in 2023 was 100 million RMB, with a 113% increase in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year [28][61]. Competitive Advantages - Laopu Gold is recognized for its unique product designs and high-end branding, which differentiate it from competitors in the jewelry market [24][69]. - The company operates a self-owned store model, allowing for better control over product quality and customer service, which enhances brand image [77]. - Laopu Gold's focus on high-priced products, with 65% of sales coming from items priced between 10,000 and 50,000 RMB, positions it well in the luxury segment [73]. Market Overview - The Chinese jewelry market has shown robust growth, with a projected CAGR of 6.8% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a total sales revenue of 1.14 trillion RMB by 2028 [37]. - Gold products dominate the market, accounting for 63.2% of the total jewelry market share in 2023, with a market size of 518 billion RMB [37][40]. - Despite short-term demand fluctuations due to rising gold prices, Laopu Gold has managed to sustain strong performance, indicating resilience in its business model [49][54]. Future Growth Potential - Laopu Gold currently operates 36 stores, with significant room for expansion, potentially doubling its store count in the coming years [26][84]. - The company is well-positioned to tap into overseas markets, particularly in regions with significant Chinese populations, such as Singapore and the United States [28][87]. - The report forecasts continued strong growth, with net profit expected to reach 1.1 billion RMB in 2024 and 1.5 billion RMB in 2025 [91].

Key Points Industry and Company * **Industry**: Jewelry, specifically high-end Chinese gold jewelry * **Company**: Lao Pu Gold, a leading brand in the high-end Chinese gold jewelry market Core Views and Arguments * **Lao Pu Gold's Growth**: The company's high growth rate is attributed to its strong brand, product, and channel capabilities, positioning it as the sole supplier meeting the needs of the high-end consumer group. * **Beta and Alpha**: The high-end gold jewelry industry has a beta component due to market trends, while Lao Pu Gold has a strong alpha due to its unique value proposition. * **Competitive Advantage**: Lao Pu Gold's competitive advantage lies in its product design, brand positioning, and exclusive channel strategy, making it difficult for competitors to imitate. * **Market Potential**: The high-end Chinese gold jewelry market has significant growth potential, driven by factors such as cultural trends, consumer preferences, and the rise of domestic brands. * **Brand Positioning**: Lao Pu Gold aims to become a globally competitive Chinese gold jewelry brand, combining traditional craftsmanship with modern aesthetics. Other Important Points * **Product Portfolio**: Lao Pu Gold offers a diverse product range, including daily accessories, jewelry, and decorative items, with a focus on Chinese cultural elements and craftsmanship. * **Channel Strategy**: The company follows a selective channel strategy, focusing on high-end shopping malls and luxury brands, ensuring a high-quality customer base. * **Brand Building**: Lao Pu Gold has successfully established a strong brand image through targeted marketing and collaborations with key opinion leaders. * **Financial Performance**: The company has achieved strong financial performance, with high gross margins and significant growth in sales. * **Future Outlook**: Lao Pu Gold is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by factors such as market expansion, product innovation, and brand building. References * [doc id='2'] * [doc id='3'] * [doc id='4'] * [doc id='6'] * [doc id='8'] * [doc id='9'] * [doc id='11'] * [doc id='12'] * [doc id='13'] * [doc id='14'] * [doc id='15'] * [doc id='16'] * [doc id='17'] * [doc id='18'] * [doc id='19'] * [doc id='20'] * [doc id='21'] * [doc id='22'] * [doc id='23'] * [doc id='24'] * [doc id='25'] * [doc id='26'] * [doc id='27'] * [doc id='28'] * [doc id='29'] * [doc id='30'] * [doc id='31'] * [doc id='32'] * [doc id='33'] * [doc id='34'] * [doc id='35'] * [doc id='36'] * [doc id='37'] * [doc id='38'] * [doc id='39'] * [doc id='40'] * [doc id='41'] * [doc id='42'] * [doc id='43'] * [doc id='44'] * [doc id='45'] * [doc id='46'] * [doc id='47'] * [doc id='48']

Key Points Industry and Company * **Industry**: Jewelry and luxury goods * **Company**: Old Patch Gold (Old Patch) * **Focus**: Analysis of Old Patch's business performance, valuation, and future prospects Core Views and Arguments * **Stock Valuation**: The stock price of Old Patch may be comparable to Pop Mart's growth trajectory, but the business models differ significantly. Old Patch operates in a high-price, low-repurchase rate market, unlike Pop Mart's high stickiness and high-repurchase rate. * **Industry Beta**: Old Patch benefits from the industry's beta, particularly from the growth of ancient gold compared to regular gold and hard gold, which has seen a growth rate of over 50% in the past few years and is expected to exceed 20% in the future. * **Gold Price Fluctuations**: The company's sales performance is somewhat decoupled from gold price fluctuations, as evidenced by the data in November and December. * **Valuation**: The valuation of Old Patch before and after the lock-up period is around 18-20 times earnings. The company was included in some clients' quarterly gold stocks at the end of December. * **Growth Expectations**: The market has a high expectation for Old Patch's growth in 2025 and 2026, with a potential EPS growth rate of 40-50%. * **Brand Strength**: Old Patch has a strong brand and is in a "cross-border" state, with significant growth potential. * **Store Expansion**: The company is cautious about store expansion, with a target of 60 stores in the future. * **Distribution Channels**: The company's sales are mainly through high-end shopping malls such as SKP and Wanda Plaza, with SKP and Wanda Plaza accounting for over 50% of the revenue. * **Dai gou**: The sales of Old Patch through dai gou are relatively high, with the top ten dai gou accounting for about 2 billion yuan in 2023. * **Competitive Landscape**: Old Patch faces competition from international jewelry brands and domestic high-end jewelry brands, but its competitive advantage lies in its brand strength and product innovation. Other Important Points * **Store Optimization**: The company actively optimizes and maintains its stores, improving their size and location. * **Marketing Activities**: The company actively participates in marketing activities and has increased its marketing efforts in recent years. * **Employee Stock Ownership Plan**: The company's employee stock ownership plan may be subject to delisting and reduction in the future. * **Upcoming Events**: The company will provide a pre-earnings guidance in March or April, and there will be a delisting event in June.

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 买入（维持） 所属行业：钟表珠宝 当前价格（港元）：288.40 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 恒 生 指 数 对 比 1M 2M 3M -57% 0% 57% 114% 171% 228% 286% 343% 400% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 老铺黄金 恒生指数 绝对涨幅(%) 47.29 43.61 75.68 相对涨幅(%) 53.04 50.79 82.44 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《老铺黄金：24H1 业绩高增长，产 品持续迭代提升品牌效能》，2024.9.3 2.《老铺黄金（6181.HK）： 古法传承，奢品营运》，2024.7.28 老铺黄金(06181.HK) 2025 年 01 月 10 日 老铺黄金：高端黄金奢品，比预 期更乐观单击或点击此处输入文字。 投资要点 短期有何变化？渠道扩张+营销活动，门店动销火热： 证券分析师 易丁依 | 主要财务指标 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 利润表(百万元) ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - Laopuhuang is positioned as a leading high-end Chinese gold brand, benefiting from the trend of domestic high-end jewelry consumption and the cultural revival in China. The company is expected to achieve significant growth in store numbers and operational performance [5][21]. - The company anticipates net profits of 1.281 billion, 1.799 billion, and 2.305 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 7.61, 10.69, and 13.69 CNY, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Laopuhuang is recognized as the first brand in ancient gold craftsmanship in China, focusing on high-end positioning and cultural value. The brand has gained significant recognition, being listed among the top ten jewelry brands favored by high-net-worth individuals [21][22]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 3.18 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 146%, and a net profit of 416 million CNY, up 340% year-on-year. The first half of 2024 saw revenue of 3.52 billion CNY, reflecting a 148% increase, and a net profit of 590 million CNY, a 199% increase [32][33]. Competitive Advantages - Laopuhuang maintains a high-end brand positioning and differentiates itself through unique product offerings, self-operated channels, and a strong brand narrative. The company emphasizes quality craftsmanship and cultural significance in its products, appealing to high-end consumers [36][41]. Growth Strategy - The company adopts a strategy of "building high walls, accumulating grain, and waiting to claim the throne," focusing on deepening customer relationships and maintaining a self-operated model without franchising. This approach is designed to enhance customer loyalty and brand recognition [5][36]. Market Potential - The high-end jewelry market in China exceeds 60 billion CNY, with Laopuhuang positioned to capture a significant share as consumer preferences shift towards high-quality gold products. The company is expected to benefit from increased penetration and repeat purchases among high-end clientele [6][36].