Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated industrialization of humanoid robots and an increase in the penetration rate of its core service robots [6] - The report highlights the importance of collective intelligence in the large-scale application of humanoid robots in industrial scenarios, emphasizing the need for collaborative capabilities to maximize work efficiency [3] - The introduction of the BrainNet software architecture and the Internet of Humanoids (IoH) is seen as a significant innovation that supports the development of collective intelligence in humanoid robots [4] Financial Projections - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 16.77 billion, 23.62 billion, and 32.14 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 58.82%, 40.87%, and 36.06% [6] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in net profit, with projections of -929.45 million, -719.87 million, and -275.13 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a significant reduction in losses [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -2.10 yuan in 2024 to -0.62 yuan in 2026 [6] Technological Advancements - The company has developed a collective brain network that enables efficient collaborative operations among humanoid robots, facilitating tasks such as sorting, transporting, and precise assembly [5] - The use of advanced technologies, including multi-modal embodied reasoning models and cross-domain perception techniques, is highlighted as a key factor in enhancing the operational capabilities of humanoid robots [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1]. Core Insights - The company, UBTECH, is a leading player in the humanoid robot sector in China, having achieved commercialization in this field. It offers intelligent service robot solutions that integrate hardware and software, targeting both enterprise and consumer markets [2][3]. - The humanoid robot market is expected to grow significantly, supported by government policies and advancements in AI technology. The market size could reach trillions in the long term, with various applications across industries [3][30]. - The company has maintained high R&D investment, averaging 470 million yuan annually from 2020 to 2023, which has enabled it to lead in technology and patent filings in the humanoid robot space [4][38]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - UBTECH, founded in 2012, is recognized as the first publicly listed humanoid robot company in China, focusing on both enterprise and consumer-grade robots. It holds a significant market share in the education robot sector, reaching 23% in 2022 [2][13]. Revenue Growth and Structure - The company's revenue has shown stable growth, with a CAGR of 13% from 2020 to 2023. In the first half of 2024, revenue reached 487 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87%, primarily due to successful project deliveries [2][18]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024H1 indicates that education robots account for 33%, logistics robots for 12%, and consumer robots for 36% of total revenue [2]. Market Potential and Industry Trends - The humanoid robot industry is positioned for rapid growth, with government policies encouraging development. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set ambitious goals for establishing an innovation system by 2025 [3][31]. - The demand for humanoid robots in the automotive sector is projected to reach 5625 units by 2025 and 62500 units by 2030, driven by the growth of the new energy vehicle market [4][33]. R&D and Technological Advancements - UBTECH has invested heavily in R&D, with an average R&D expense rate of 53% from 2020 to 2023. The company has over 2100 patents related to robotics and AI, leading the global market in effective humanoid robot patents [4][38]. - The company employs a full-stack technology approach, allowing for efficient integration of various applications and services, which enhances its product offerings and market competitiveness [4][43]. Commercialization and Product Development - The company has successfully commercialized its humanoid robots, with the latest model, Walker S, being applied in industrial settings. This model features advanced capabilities for quality inspection and operational tasks [4][47].

Key Points Industry and Company 1. **Industry Focus**: The discussion centers around the humanoid robot industry, specifically focusing on the market outlook and production plans of Tesla's humanoid robots. 2. **Company in Focus**: The analysis primarily revolves around Ubiquity Robotics, a key player in the humanoid robot market. Core Views and Arguments 1. **Tesla's Market Outlook**: Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, has expressed optimism about the humanoid robot market, predicting a 10x increase in annual shipments. This suggests progress in internal validation and solution design for Tesla's humanoid robots. 2. **Investment Opportunities**: 2025 is expected to be a pivotal year for the initial mass production and validation of humanoid robots, presenting significant investment opportunities. 3. **Investment Focus**: Key areas of investment include core component manufacturers (e.g., screws, sensors, motors, and reducers), body manufacturers, and integrated application solution providers. 4. **Ubiquity Robotics' Progress**: Ubiquity Robotics' humanoid robots have been tested at BYD's factory and are expected to receive small batch orders in the first half of 2025. The company aims to expand into the automotive, logistics, and 3C sectors. 5. **Cost Reduction**: The cost of Ubiquity Robotics' humanoid robots is primarily concentrated in the joints, with the potential for significant cost reductions through economies of scale. 6. **Application Scenarios**: Currently focused on material handling, Ubiquity Robotics plans to expand into more refined operations such as end-of-line sorting and air conditioning safety inspections. 7. **Education and Moulding Machine Businesses**: The education and moulding machine businesses are performing well, offering significant revenue elasticity for the company. Other Important Content 1. **Hardware Companies to Watch**: Priority is given to core component manufacturing companies and those involved in body manufacturing, integrated application solutions, and collaboration with first-tier companies. 2. **Ubiquity Robotics' Recent Developments**: The company has released the No-Core S and is undergoing testing at BYD's factory. A small batch order of 30 to 50 units is expected in the first half of 2025. 3. **Cost Reduction Strategies**: The cost of Ubiquity Robotics' humanoid robots is primarily concentrated in the joints, with the potential for significant cost reductions through economies of scale. 4. **Application Scenarios**: Currently focused on material handling, Ubiquity Robotics plans to expand into more refined operations such as end-of-line sorting and air conditioning safety inspections. 5. **Education and Moulding Machine Businesses**: The education and moulding machine businesses are performing well, offering significant revenue elasticity for the company. 6. **Financial Status and Future Prospects**: The company is currently in a loss-making state but is expected to shorten the loss period as revenue scales up. The PS valuation method is suitable for the company.

Key Points Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Robotics, specifically humanoid robots - **Company**: UBTech Robotics Core Views and Arguments - **UBTech Robotics' Production Plan**: UBTech Robotics has announced a production plan for its humanoid robots, which is expected to be optimistic and could lead to small-scale mass production or a phased verification by 2025 [2]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The industry is expected to see a surge in investment opportunities, with many companies entering the market for humanoid robot bodies and core components [3]. - **UBTech Robotics' Stock Performance**: UBTech Robotics experienced a significant price adjustment due to the termination of a consensus action agreement, but the impact on the stock price is expected to be relatively mild [4]. - **Valuation**: UBTech Robotics is currently valued at around 10x PS, which is considered relatively reasonable [5]. - **Revenue Growth**: UBTech Robotics is expected to see revenue growth driven by the expansion of its humanoid robot business and other business segments [5]. - **Cost Reduction**: UBTech Robotics aims to reduce costs through mass production and scale effects, particularly in hardware [10]. Other Important Points - **UBTech Robotics' Business Segments**: - **Humanoid Robots**: UBTech Robotics has been working on humanoid robots since the second half of 2023 and has completed a trial run at BYD's factory. The company expects to receive orders for 30 to 50 humanoid robots from BYD, with an expected delivery schedule [6]. - **AI Education**: UBTech Robotics has been promoting AI projects in approximately 100 schools, which could bring in several billion yuan in revenue and a gross margin of over 50% [13]. - **Mower**: UBTech Robotics' mower segment achieved a significant sales growth of over 20,000 units in 2023, compared to 70,000 units in 2022 [13]. - **Application Scenarios**: UBTech Robotics is expanding its application scenarios beyond material handling to include tasks such as component sorting, air conditioning leakage detection, and safety inspections [12]. - **Collaborations**: UBTech Robotics is collaborating with companies such as BYD, Audi, and Volkswagen for various application scenarios [11]. - **Technology**: UBTech Robotics is currently using NVIDIA chips for its humanoid robots but plans to explore domestic alternatives [11].

Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot company UBTECH has announced a 12-month lock-up commitment from its CTO, executive directors, and a personal shareholder, indicating confidence in the company's future development and long-term value [1] Group 1: Company Developments - UBTECH's humanoid industrial robots have completed the first phase of training at car factories, achieving significant improvements in core technologies such as joint stability, overall structure reliability, battery life, software system stability, positioning navigation, and motion control [1] - The Walker S1 robot has shown a 100% increase in efficiency and a 30% improvement in stability during initial training at BYD's automotive factory, with ongoing optimization expected to enable large-scale delivery by Q2 [1] - The Walker S1 has completed the first phase of logistics tasks at Foxconn and is set to expand its testing in the second phase to cover more areas with additional humanoid robots [2] Group 2: Industry Collaborations - In 2024, UBTECH has partnered with multiple automotive manufacturers and logistics companies, including Dongfeng Liuzhou, Geely, FAW-Volkswagen, Audi FAW, BYD, BAIC New Energy, and logistics firm SF Express, making it the humanoid robot company with the most training engagements in car factories globally [2] - The company has received over 500 intention orders for its Walker S industrial humanoid robots, marking a critical phase in its industrialization process [2]

Company Update - Ubtech's stock price dropped by 13% following the announcement of the termination of concerted action agreements between Chairman, Executive Director, and CEO Zhou Jian and several other individuals, effective from December 29, 2024 [1] - Zhou Jian voluntarily committed not to reduce his holdings of 70.4 million H shares in the company for 12 months starting from December 29, 2024 [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for UBTECH Robotics Company Overview - The conference call discusses UBTECH Robotics, focusing on its latest developments in humanoid robots and other business segments such as education and logistics. Key Points Industry and Company Developments - UBTECH's latest generation of industrial humanoid robots has been unveiled and is currently undergoing delivery validation at customer factories, with plans for small-scale production to begin after successful validation [2][3] - The humanoid robots have achieved a handling efficiency of 30 boxes per hour at BYD's factory, with a target to improve this to nearly human levels (50 boxes per hour) by Q2 next year [2][3] - The company plans to implement autonomous task planning and execution for humanoid robots by Q2 next year, expanding their application to other automotive manufacturers and manufacturing scenarios [2][6] Financial Performance - UBTECH reported an 86% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2023, with an expected annual growth of 45%-50% [2][4] - Revenue from education, logistics, and consumer hardware segments each accounts for approximately one-third of total revenue [4] Application Scenarios and Future Plans - The company has a rich reserve of application scenarios for humanoid robots, planning to expand into tasks such as handling, sorting, labeling, screwing, and safety inspections over the next 2-3 years [2][8] - UBTECH aims to deliver around 50 robots for testing and validation to various automotive manufacturers this year, with small batch deliveries expected to start in Q1 or Q2 next year [7][9] Technical Challenges and Innovations - Key challenges in humanoid robot development include productization of core technologies and enhancing large model processing capabilities [10] - Current robots use lithium battery solutions with a runtime of approximately 3 hours, with plans to explore lighter batteries and fixed power line solutions for improved efficiency [12][11] Market Position and Collaborations - The increasing interest from automotive manufacturers in humanoid robots is seen as a positive trend for UBTECH, validating their focus on industrial applications [13] - The company collaborates with several automotive manufacturers, including BYD, and is actively engaged in discussions with various departments in Saudi Arabia for potential large orders [20][23] Education Sector Engagement - UBTECH has entered over 4,200 schools to promote AI education, with significant growth potential in this sector as the company aims to maintain a 30% revenue share from educational robotics [14] Future Projections - By 2025, UBTECH plans to enhance the autonomous decision-making capabilities of their humanoid robots and introduce the next generation of humanoid robots with improved hardware structures [19] - The company anticipates deploying 100,000 humanoid robots over the next 30 years, including other service robots for urban applications [24] Financial Strategy - The company has recently completed a capital raise of approximately 1.1 billion yuan, which is expected to be sufficient for maintaining current development scales, although increased R&D investment may be necessary to stay competitive [29] R&D Focus - UBTECH has over 900 R&D personnel, with a focus on hardware and software development, including AI vision and autonomous navigation [22] Conclusion - UBTECH Robotics is positioned for significant growth in the humanoid robotics sector, with strong financial performance, diverse application scenarios, and strategic collaborations that enhance its market presence and technological capabilities.

Summary of the Conference Call for UBTECH Robotics Company Overview - **Company**: UBTECH Robotics - **Industry**: Humanoid Robotics and AI Solutions Key Points and Arguments Humanoid Robot Developments - The latest generation of industrial humanoid robots has been unveiled and is currently undergoing delivery validation at customer factories, with plans for small-scale production to begin after successful validation [2][3] - In the BYD factory, the humanoid robot has achieved a handling efficiency of 30 boxes per hour, with a target to improve this to nearly human levels (50 boxes per hour) by Q2 next year [2][3] - The company plans to enable autonomous task planning and execution for humanoid robots by Q2 next year, expanding applications to other automotive manufacturers and manufacturing scenarios [2][3][6] Financial Performance - UBTECH's revenue for the first half of 2023 grew by 86% year-on-year, with an expected annual growth of 45%-50% [2][4] - Revenue distribution is approximately one-third from education, logistics, and consumer hardware segments [4] Application Scenarios and Future Plans - The company has a rich reserve of application scenarios for humanoid robots, planning to expand into tasks such as handling, sorting, labeling, screwing, and safety inspections over the next 2-3 years [2][8] - The initial focus on handling tasks is due to their high versatility across various manufacturers, including BYD, Geely, and Foxconn [9] Challenges and Solutions - Key challenges include transitioning core technology from product to commercial viability and enhancing large model processing capabilities [10] - The company emphasizes the importance of stability and durability in robots when delivering to customers, which requires high integration of supply chain, hardware, and software technologies [10] Energy Management and Structural Design - Energy management and structural design are critical areas, with a focus on improving battery efficiency and overall durability [11] - Currently, the robots use lithium batteries with a runtime of approximately 3 hours, with plans to explore lighter batteries and fixed power supply options [12] Market Expansion and Collaborations - The increasing interest from automotive manufacturers in humanoid robots is seen as a positive trend, validating the direction of industrial applications [13] - UBTECH has established collaborations with multiple automotive manufacturers and is in discussions with various departments in Saudi Arabia for potential large orders [23][24] Educational Robotics - The company has entered over 4,200 schools to promote AI education, with significant growth potential in this sector [14] - The expected revenue contribution from educational robotics is projected to remain around 30%, with a gross margin of 40%-50% [14] Future Outlook - By 2025, UBTECH aims to enhance the autonomous decision-making capabilities of humanoid robots and introduce the next generation of humanoid robots with improved hardware structures [19] - The company plans to deploy 100,000 humanoid robots over the next 30 years, including other service robots [24] R&D and Cost Management - The company has over 900 R&D personnel, with a focus on hardware and software development [22] - High expense ratios are attributed to ongoing R&D investments, with plans to reduce these ratios through revenue growth [21] Risks and Funding - The company assesses that its current funding is sufficient to maintain its development scale, but may increase R&D investments to stay competitive in the humanoid robotics sector [29] Additional Important Information - The company is exploring the use of solid-state batteries in the future, although currently relying on lithium batteries [15] - The humanoid robot's ideal lifespan is estimated at 3-5 years, with maintenance costs around 10% of total costs [18]

Group 1 - The company, UBTECH, announced a placement agreement with a placement agent to issue a total of 5.06 million new H-shares [1] - The placement price is set at HKD 86.18 per H-share, representing a discount of approximately 19.98% compared to the closing price of HKD 107.7 on October 22, 2024 [1]

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Ubtech Robotics (9880 HK) with a target price of **HKD 131.42** [5][10] - The current closing price as of October 8 is **HKD 99.60**, indicating a significant upside potential [4] Core Investment Thesis - Ubtech Robotics is a leading humanoid robotics company in China, focusing on AI education, smart logistics, smart elderly care, and commercial services [5][12] - The company is expected to benefit from policy support, AI model advancements, and cost reductions through mass production and localization, potentially marking the beginning of the humanoid robotics industry [5][12] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are **RMB 1.68 billion**, **RMB 2.39 billion**, and **RMB 3.50 billion**, respectively [5] Industry and Market Context - The humanoid robotics industry is transitioning from the **technology validation phase** to the **commercial pilot phase**, with companies like Tesla and Figure leading the way [6] - AI advancements are expected to reduce hardware precision requirements, lowering costs and enabling more innovative products [6] - The domestic robotics industry, though starting later than overseas, is gaining momentum with strong policy support and increasing market awareness [6] Company Strengths and Competitive Advantages - Ubtech Robotics has a **full-stack self-developed technology** and a complete R&D-production-sales chain, making it a model for humanoid robotics commercialization [7] - The company has a strong technical team, with deep integration of AI in navigation, vision, motion control, and training, and self-developed servo motors for industrial applications [7] - Ubtech has a clear commercialization strategy, with a diverse product portfolio and an expanding sales network, positioning it well for future growth [7] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue has shown steady growth, with **RMB 1.056 billion** in 2023, up **4.7% YoY**, but net losses remain significant due to high R&D and operational expenses [16] - For 2024-2026, the company is expected to see revenue growth of **58.7%**, **42.6%**, and **46.4%**, respectively, but net losses are projected to persist [9] - Gross margin improved to **38%** in H1 2024, driven by product mix and new product launches, with losses narrowing slightly [16] Product Portfolio and Market Expansion - Ubtech Robotics has a diverse product line, including **education robots**, **logistics robots**, **elderly care robots**, and **consumer robots**, targeting multiple industries [14][29][34] - The company is exploring new applications in **industrial settings**, particularly in automotive manufacturing, with its Walker series robots [34] - In the consumer segment, products like the **AiRROBO cat litter robot** and **sweeping robot** have gained market traction, with strong sales growth [37] Technological Advancements and Future Prospects - Ubtech Robotics is leveraging **AI and large models** to enhance the capabilities of its robots, particularly in industrial and consumer applications [44] - The company is focusing on **hardware localization** and **mass production** to reduce costs, which could significantly expand the market for humanoid robots [48] - With a clear roadmap for commercialization, Ubtech aims to achieve **large-scale delivery** of its robots, further solidifying its competitive position [8] Market and Policy Support - The Chinese government has introduced several policies to support the robotics industry, aiming to establish a **world-leading robotics ecosystem** by 2027 [42][43] - These policies emphasize the development of key technologies, mass production, and the application of humanoid robots in various sectors, including manufacturing and elderly care [42][43] Competitive Landscape - The global humanoid robotics market is highly competitive, with companies like **Tesla**, **Figure**, and **Unitree** also making significant strides [44][45] - Ubtech Robotics is well-positioned in the domestic market, ranking third in terms of revenue in the smart service robotics sector [27]