新华财经北京1月21日电（林玉莲 王文嫣）受寒潮影响，我国中东部地区正迎来今冬最冷的一周。面对 寒潮，记者从多家煤炭、电力、油气企业了解到，相关企业已密集部署投产保供工作，打出能源保供 的"组合拳"。 另有煤电企业人士对记者表示，随着新能源比例逐步增加，煤电机组除了发电，越来越多地承担电力兜 底调节作用。 多地用电负荷快速上升 能源供应安全稳定 新一轮寒潮带来大范围降温，多地用电负荷快速上升。 1月19日，江苏电网最高用电负荷达1.28亿千瓦，较前一日激增近2000万千瓦，增长18.5%。据国网江苏 省电力公司预测，今冬全省最高用电负荷预计将达1.38亿千瓦。 国网山东省电力公司透露，1月18日11时20分、1月19日11时25分，山东电网负荷分别达到1.1109亿千瓦 和1.15995亿千瓦，连续两天创冬季用电负荷历史新高。 受降雪降温天气影响，河北电网用电负荷也持续攀升。1月18日11时25分，河北电网最大负荷达到 5229.4万千瓦，创冬季历史新高。 为了保障电力供应充足稳定，电网公司加大对电网设施的巡检力度，加强抢修保障。可视化巡查和智能 运维也在保供工作中发挥了关键作用。 作为服务上海2400多万市 ...

Group 1: Energy Supply and Demand - A new cold wave has led to a significant increase in electricity load across multiple regions, with Jiangsu's peak load reaching 128 million kilowatts, an increase of 18.5% from the previous day [2] - Shandong's electricity load set a winter record, reaching 111.09 million kilowatts and 115.995 million kilowatts on consecutive days [2] - Hebei's maximum load also hit a winter high of 52.294 million kilowatts due to adverse weather conditions [2] Group 2: Energy Supply Measures - Energy companies are intensifying efforts to ensure stable power supply, including enhanced inspections and maintenance of grid facilities [2] - Shenergy Group has updated over 2400 kilometers of aging gas pipelines in Shanghai to ensure reliable gas supply [3] - The Zhejiang Anji Power Plant, with a total capacity of 1686 megawatts and an efficiency of 64.15%, has commenced full operation to support winter electricity demand [3] Group 3: Fuel Production and Supply - In December 2025, China's industrial raw coal production reached 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, indicating a relatively loose supply-demand relationship [4] - Major coal companies are ramping up coal production and transportation to ensure supply [4] Group 4: Natural Gas Supply - The natural gas demand for the current heating season is projected to be between 206.1 billion and 210.1 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% to 5.2% [5] - China Petroleum's Longqing Oilfield is supplying over 16 million cubic meters of natural gas daily to meet demand in over 50 cities [6] - Intelligent monitoring systems are being utilized to enhance the safety and efficiency of gas supply during extreme weather conditions [6]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is undergoing a strategic shift from a focus on market share to profitability, driven by internal policy adjustments and external pressures such as anti-dumping investigations [4][7][11] - The report identifies five key sectors with investment potential: MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle flakes, emphasizing the importance of leading companies with significant market share and competitive advantages [4][12][55] Group 1: Industry Trends - The chemical industry has historically prioritized market share, but recent policies and market conditions are prompting a shift towards profitability [7][13] - The supply-side reforms and dual carbon goals have raised entry barriers, leading to increased industry concentration without curbing expansion ambitions [7][13] - The trend of sacrificing market share for improved returns is becoming more prevalent, as companies recognize the need to adapt to changing market dynamics [31][11] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - MDI: The leading company, Wanhua Chemical, is expected to benefit significantly from its strategic shift towards profitability, with potential for substantial earnings growth in 2026 [56] - Petrochemicals: Major players like Sinopec and Rongsheng Petrochemical are undergoing operational adjustments that could reshape industry trends [57] - Phosphate Chemicals: The sector is poised for revaluation due to a tight supply-demand balance and increasing recognition of phosphate's value in energy security [59][60] - PVC: The industry faces strong supply constraints, with emerging markets driving demand growth despite domestic challenges [60] - Polyester Bottle Flakes: The sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to high industry concentration and strategic production limitations by leading firms [61]

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has proactively deployed -10 diesel supply points in Shanghai to meet the increased demand for fuel during the cold weather, ensuring the supply chain remains stable and efficient [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Management - Shanghai Petroleum has coordinated with various refining enterprises to stockpile -10 diesel resources in advance, utilizing smart monitoring to track inventory levels at gas stations [3]. - The company has strategically positioned supply points along national and provincial roads, highways, and at key logistics hubs to ensure timely delivery and service [3]. Group 2: Safety and Education - Shanghai Petroleum has organized winter driving safety education for fuel carriers, implementing measures to prevent slipping and freezing during transportation [3]. - The company is prioritizing the supply of -10 diesel for essential services, including logistics and long-distance buses, to balance supply across different regions [3]. Group 3: Supply Points - A total of 65 gas stations in Shanghai have been designated to supply -10 diesel, with specific locations listed for public access [4].

Group 1 - The refining and trading sector increased by 1.65% on January 20, with Bohai Chemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - Key stocks in the refining and trading sector showed significant price increases, with Bohai Chemical rising by 7.56% to a closing price of 4.84, and Hengli Petrochemical increasing by 6.62% to 26.74 [1] Group 2 - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 1.09 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 2.73 billion yuan [2] - Major stocks like Hengli Petrochemical had a net inflow of 1.92 billion yuan from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3] - Retail investors showed a negative sentiment towards several stocks, with significant outflows from companies like ST Shenhua and Hengyi Petrochemical [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01% on January 20, with 20 industries rising, led by the oil and petrochemical sector, which increased by 1.74% [1] - The communication and defense industries experienced the largest declines, with drops of 3.23% and 2.87% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 95.723 billion yuan, with 11 industries seeing net inflows [1] - The banking sector had the highest net inflow, increasing by 0.80% with a net inflow of 1.472 billion yuan, followed by the real estate sector, which rose by 1.55% with a net inflow of 627 million yuan [1] Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The oil and petrochemical industry rose by 1.74%, with a net outflow of 32.276 million yuan [2] - Out of 47 stocks in this sector, 31 rose while 15 fell, with 18 stocks experiencing net inflows [2] - The top three stocks with significant net inflows were Hengli Petrochemical (1.75 billion yuan), Sinopec (890.169 million yuan), and Continental Oil (587.633 million yuan) [2] Notable Stocks in Oil and Petrochemical Sector - Major stocks with significant net outflows included Rongsheng Petrochemical (-68.2609 million yuan), Baomo Co. (-66.8692 million yuan), and Tongkun Co. (-44.9582 million yuan) [2] - The table of capital flow in the oil and petrochemical sector highlights various stocks, including Hengli Petrochemical with a 6.62% increase and a net inflow of 17.49715 million yuan, and Sinopec with a 1.35% increase and a net inflow of 890.169 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed signs of recovery on January 20, with the oil and gas ETF Huatai (159309) attracting significant capital inflow, indicating strong investor interest in the oil and gas sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The oil and gas ETF Huatai (159309) closed up 0.24%, with over 6 million yuan in capital inflow on that day, marking a total of over 45 million yuan in inflows over the past six days [1] - The top ten constituent stocks of the oil and gas ETF showed mixed performance, with Intercontinental Oil & Gas rising over 3% and China Petroleum and China Petrochemical both increasing by over 1% [5] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - International oil prices rose collectively, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increasing by 0.15% to $59.43 per barrel and Brent crude rising by 0.08% to $64.19 per barrel [2] - Domestic refined oil prices are set to increase by approximately 90 yuan per ton starting January 21, marking the first price hike of the year [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Geopolitical supply risks in the oil market have risen, with actual supply disruptions occurring since late last year, while OPEC+ is expected to pause production increases in 1Q26 [4] - The U.S. shale oil production is nearing a peak, with the number of active drilling rigs in the Permian Basin decreasing to 250, indicating sensitivity to oil price fluctuations [6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The oil and gas ETF Huatai (159309) focuses on the oil and gas industry chain, providing exposure to key sectors with quality reserves and stable dividend capabilities [6] - The ETF tracks the China Securities Oil and Gas Resource Index, which has shown leading cumulative returns over the past six months, one year, and three years compared to similar indices [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Sinopec's subsidiary, Shengli Oilfield, has received approval for an environmental impact assessment for a new oil development project with a total investment of 281 million yuan [1] - The project is part of the A-share Green Report initiative, which aims to enhance transparency in environmental information of listed companies by monitoring their environmental performance based on authoritative data from various government sources [1] - The A-share Green Report project is a collaboration between the Daily Economic News and the public environmental research center (IPE), focusing on analyzing and interpreting environmental data of listed companies [1] Group 2 - The latest A-share Green Weekly Report indicated that six listed companies have recently exposed environmental risks [1]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the US dollar is weak, with the dollar index falling to around 99, leading to decreased investor confidence in dollar assets due to regional tensions [1] - Key variables affecting oil prices in 2026 include OPEC+ production cuts, macroeconomic policy shifts such as potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and escalating regional political risks that could trigger short-term oil price spikes [1] - The projected core price range for Brent crude oil in 2026 is $55-75 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be $50-70 per barrel, with volatility expected to narrow compared to 2025 [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include major companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2] - The Penghua Oil ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][2]

SAF Industry Analysis: Super Cycle Driven by Supply-Demand Mismatch Industry Overview - The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry is experiencing a significant shift from "policy-driven" to "hard gap-driven" dynamics, particularly influenced by the upcoming EU ReFuelEU Aviation regulation set to take effect in 2025, which mandates the incorporation of 2%, 5%, and 70% sustainable aviation fuel in aviation fuel by 2025, 2030, and 2035 respectively, translating to a demand of 140 million, 350 million, and 5000 million tons [1][2] Key Insights - The price of SAF has surged over 50% throughout the year due to supply chain disruptions, leading to a significant widening of the price gap with upstream raw material UCO (Used Cooking Oil) [1] - Despite a potential decline in short-term demand post-2026, the UK’s blending target of 3.6% and Singapore's taxation policies are expected to support ongoing demand, with global production capacity estimated at 4-5 million tons, and an effective capacity of 2.4 million tons, which still falls short of the global demand of 2.8 million tons (Europe 1.8 million + USA 600,000 + South Korea and China 400,000) [1] Profit Distribution in the Industry - The industry logic has shifted from mere policy expectations to the realization of excess profits driven by scarce refining capacity [2] - Companies with existing or upcoming SAF production capacity are positioned to enjoy the highest processing profits, while those with compliant and traceable UCO resources will benefit from compliance premiums amid global trade barriers [2] Major SAF Suppliers and Capacities - Key SAF suppliers and their production capacities include: - Jiaao Environmental: 370,000 tons (with an additional 500,000 tons under construction) - Longkun Environment: 170,000 tons (planning to expand to 420,000 tons) - Sinopec: Zhenhai Refining 100,000 tons - Haineng Energy: Shandong Sanju 50,000 tons - Overseas Neste: over 500,000 tons - Unlisted Junheng Biological: 200,000 tons - Yigao Environmental: 200,000 tons [2]