供给收缩叠加大宗叙事，持续看好煤炭板块表现 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 28 日 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 20,999.46 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 20,568.53 | 布局弹性标的》2026-02-07 有望上行推荐弹性》2026-02-07 2026-02-02 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 202 ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 16.95 | 1.68 | 1.01 | 1.32 | 10 | 17 | 13 | 推荐 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 11.79 | 1.14 | 0.67 | 1.17 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 推荐 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | 14.89 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 1.01 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 推荐 | | 600348 | 华阳股份 | 10.09 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 16 | 21 | 15 | 推荐 | | 600188 | 兖矿能源 | 17.72 | 1.44 | 0.94 | 1.18 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 推荐 | | 6010 ...

煤炭ETF（515220）业绩比较基准为中证煤炭指数收益率，管理人为国泰基金管理有限公司，基金经理 为吴中昊，成立（2020-01-20）以来回报为173.17%，近一个月回报为6.21%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 2月27日，截止午间收盘，煤炭ETF（515220）涨1.45%，报1.186元，成交额3.12亿元。煤炭ETF （515220）重仓股方面，中国神华截止午盘涨0.29%，陕西煤业涨0.60%，兖矿能源涨1.53%，中煤能源 涨3.29%，山西焦煤涨1.12%，华阳股份涨1.55%，美锦能源涨2.99%，潞安环能涨2.61%，淮北矿业涨 0.52%，平煤股份涨0.92%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...

中煤能源A股（601898.SH）近3个交易日股价波动显著：2月24日上涨3.95%至14.99元，2月25日下跌 1.33%至14.79元，2月26日进一步下跌1.42%至14.58元（截至收盘）。资金流向方面，2月25日主力资金 净流出639.11万元，但融资资金净买入1620.85万元，显示分歧。公司股东户数截至2026年1月底为 78,147户（A股），较前期变化未披露。板块方面，煤炭开采板块近一日下跌0.61%，弱于大盘。 机构观点 经济观察网 近期煤炭市场呈现供需双弱但价格底部支撑坚实的特征。春节假期期间，主产地煤矿停产 放假导致供应收缩，而工业用电需求进入低点，电厂采购以长协合同为主。截至2026年2月25日，环渤 海动力煤现货参考价717元/吨，周涨幅0.70%；秦皇岛港动力煤平仓价718元/吨，周涨幅3.31%。海外方 面，印尼减产推动国际煤价上涨，对国内煤价形成支撑。华源证券报告指出，春节前煤炭去库超预期， 港口库存处于近三年低位，节后需关注供需恢复节奏。 股票近期走势 山西证券研报认为，海外煤价上涨及国内供给约束可能对煤炭企业业绩形成支撑，建议关注头部动力煤 标的如中煤能源。华源证券同样 ...

韦思宇 长江证券煤炭分析师: 各位投资者领导，大家下午好，欢迎收听长江煤炭的马年开门红的线上策略会，是中煤能 源的一个专场交流。我是长江证券煤炭行业的分析师韦思宇，新的一年，也是祝大家马年 大吉，马上来财。那么下面我们进入到正式的会议环节，今天非常荣幸的邀请到了中煤能 源的郭总和闫琪总，也是大家这个老朋友了，出席本次的这个会议。那么会议将分为两个 环节，首先是这个郭总跟闫琪姐这边，去简单介绍一下公司的一些近况，然后我们再进入 到这个互动问答的环节。 那么下面，我们就把时间交给郭总，欢迎李总。咱们可以开始了。 中煤能源证券事务部郭威: 好的，感谢这个长江证券的组织，在这个第一个工作日的下午，就及时的召开了这么一个 会议。我是中煤能源证券事务部郭威。因为鉴于这个时间关系吧，我就先简单的说一说近 况，还是以后续大家的这个问答。Give it always 进入这个 26 年，公司的生产经营还是 比较正常，走过了这两个多月的时间，不过大家也看到，在我们年前，春节之前发布的 1 月份的生产经营数据的公告中，资产煤的产量。同环比都是有一定程度的下行。过程中， 因为间隔了这个春节的假期，其实有不少朋友们也关注到、关心到我们 ...

1、机构称AI芯片领域，钻石散热潜在市场空间广阔。 明日线索 2月24日，培育钻石概念大涨，四方达20cm涨停，黄河旋风涨停。 消息面上，河南省科技厅官微此前消息，热沉片是金刚石家族的新成员，它让超硬材料成功进入高端芯片散热这个新赛道。黄 河旋风表示，从热沉片上切割出来所需要的形状，以某种方式贴合在芯片上，做成顶级散热器，这将大大促进高功率器件、 5G/6G通信、AI算力性能的提升。如今，制约产业化的尺寸瓶颈已被突破，黄河旋风成功研制出国内可量产的最大8英寸热沉 片。据悉，公司热沉片生产车间将于今年2月份投入量产，这是功能性金刚石从实验室，迈向规模化商业应用的一个里程碑。 据中邮证券，AI芯片领域，钻石散热潜在市场空间广阔。假设2030年全球AI芯片市场规模为3万亿人民币；AI芯片中钻石散热方 案渗透率分别为5%、10%、20%、50%；钻石散热价值量占比分别为5%、8%、10%，进行弹性测算，钻石散热市场空间的区间 为75亿至1500亿元。 | 图表12: Al 芯片领域钻石散热市场空间弹性测算表 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位( ...

Group 1: Solid-State Battery Industry - The global solid-state battery industry is expected to achieve GWh-level mass production by 2027, driven by collaborative innovation in materials, processes, and equipment [5][6][7] - The solid-state battery supply chain is evolving towards a "materials-equipment-manufacturing-application" collaborative innovation model, with key advancements in electrolyte film formation processes impacting ionic conductivity [6][7] - The global solid-state battery equipment market is projected to reach 120 billion yuan by 2026, with significant demand for new equipment such as dry electrode preparation and isostatic pressing [7][8] Group 2: AI Applications and Media Consumption - The 2026 Spring Festival has become a battleground for major AI companies to showcase their technological capabilities, integrating AI deeply into program production and real-time interactions [10][11] - The focus of domestic AI large models has shifted from general capabilities to native agent capabilities, emphasizing task planning and multi-modal technology breakthroughs [10][11] - The gaming sector during the Spring Festival saw a preference for high DAU games, particularly in the MOBA and FPS genres, with Tencent's games dominating the market [11][12] Group 3: Energy Sector and Coal Market - In 2025, the State Grid's total bidding amount reached 89.4 billion yuan, doubling that of 2022 and increasing by 27% compared to 2024, indicating strong growth in the energy sector [14][15] - The coal market experienced unexpected inventory reductions before the Spring Festival, leading to optimistic coal prices post-holiday, supported by favorable supply conditions [16] - The release of the national unified electricity market policy aims to establish a market-oriented mechanism centered on supply and demand, emphasizing sustainability [17][18] Group 4: New Consumption Trends - The 2026 Spring Festival saw a significant increase in travel and consumption, with cross-regional passenger flow expected to reach 9.5 billion, a 5.32% increase from 2025 [19][20] - The beauty sector showed signs of recovery during the off-peak season, with a notable increase in sales, particularly in the makeup category, driven by festive consumption [22][23] - The overall retail and catering sales during the Spring Festival increased by 8.6% compared to the previous year, reflecting a vibrant consumer market [21][22]

2026 年 02 月 24 日 版费 行业 相关研究 近券研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 产地供给恢复缓慢、进口 缩,看好煤价继续上 -煤炭行业周报（2026.2.7-2026.2.13） 本期投资后了 ● 动力煤方面，截至 2 月 13 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 556、638、718 元/吨，环比上涨 23、25、23 元/吨。供 给端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 165.76 万吨，环比上周增加 7.2 万吨，增幅 4.54%，同比增加 6.57%。需求端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区 本周日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slow recovery in domestic coal supply and an expected reduction in imports, which is anticipated to support continued increases in coal prices [1]. - As of February 13, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 25, and 23 RMB/ton respectively [1]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 4.54% week-on-week, while the outflow rose by 14.42% [1]. - The report suggests that the current tight supply conditions, coupled with increased demand from downstream sectors, will likely sustain coal prices in the near term [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The State Council issued guidelines on improving the national unified electricity market system, aiming for significant market participation by 2030 and full establishment by 2035 [8]. - Safety production measures in coal mines are being emphasized, with a focus on intelligent operations and strict enforcement of safety regulations [8]. Price Trends - Domestic thermal coal prices remained stable, with specific grades reporting no change in price [9][11]. - International thermal coal prices showed slight increases, with Indonesian coal prices rising by 1.2% [10]. Inventory and Supply - The Bohai Rim ports reported a decrease in coal inventory, with a total of 24.15 million tons as of February 14, 2026, down 1.96% from the previous week [21]. - The report indicates that the number of vessels anchored at the Bohai Rim ports decreased, reflecting tighter supply conditions [21]. Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates decreased by 2.90%, while international freight rates showed mixed trends [28]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [33].

二级市场方面，A股市场整体震荡下行，煤炭跑赢指数 主要指数普遍收跌 ，市场风格显著切换 ，资金从前期高估值科技与贵金属板块撤离，转向消费与航空服务等低估值、 高景气赛道 。全市场日均成交额为 2.41 万亿元 ，市场活跃度维持高位，但波动加剧，风险偏好阶段性回落。领涨板块集中于消费与航空服务，航空客运Ⅲ 成为全市场最强板块，受益于春节 假期前出行需求集中释放、国际航线全面恢复及国产大飞机C919 商业运营加速 ，航司客座率与载运率持续回升，盈利能力显著改善 。领跌板块集中于贵金 属与科技硬件，贵金属遭遇史诗级回调。煤炭板块跑赢指数，建议继续关注现金流充裕、分红高的优质煤炭标的 。 动力煤方面 ，本周动力煤各环节价格呈现震荡回落态势 港口端秦皇岛港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价小幅上涨 ，产地端部分地区煤价有所回落， 国际端纽卡斯尔动力煤价格同步小幅下降 。短期来看，春节前供需双弱格 局将延续，但供给收缩的确定性与刚需支撑形成对冲，煤价下行空间有限，预计后续将逐步向煤电盈利均分的合理区间修复，维持窄幅震荡走势。 港口端京唐港山西产主焦煤库提价周环比有所下降，连云港山西产主焦煤平仓价同步回调;产地端山西古交2号焦煤坑 ...