Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including 晋控煤业, 山煤国际, 潞安环能, 华阳股份, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中广核矿业 [2][14] Core Insights - The reduction in coal production in Indonesia has heightened expectations for supply contraction, which is anticipated to positively impact coal prices post-holiday [6][9] - The report forecasts that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, driven by domestic capacity reductions and Indonesian production cuts [9][10] - The report highlights the importance of companies with high spot market exposure and improved balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which are expected to be less affected by production limits [9][14] Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Ratings - 晋控煤业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.68 RMB, PE for 2024A is 9, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 山煤国际: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.14 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 潞安环能: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.82 RMB, PE for 2024A is 16, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 华阳股份: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.62 RMB, PE for 2024A is 15, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 兖矿能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.44 RMB, PE for 2024A is 11, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中国神华: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.95 RMB, PE for 2024A is 14, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 陕西煤业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.31 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中煤能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.46 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中广核矿业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.04 HKD, PE for 2024A is 93, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 新集能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.92 RMB, PE for 2024A is 8, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 淮北矿业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.80 RMB, PE for 2024A is 7, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 兰花科创: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.49 RMB, PE for 2024A is 13, rated as "Cautiously Recommended" [2] Market Dynamics - The coal market has seen a slight increase in prices due to ongoing supply constraints and decreasing port inventories, with expectations for a price surge post-holiday as downstream operations resume [9][10] - The report notes that the coal consumption by power plants remains high, despite a week-on-week decrease, indicating strong demand [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal price trends and the performance of coal companies in light of changing market conditions [10][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Yancoal Energy, and China Shenhua [5][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that supply constraints, particularly from Indonesia, are expected to support coal prices, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in flexible coal stocks [7][8]. - The coal market is anticipated to maintain a weak supply-demand balance as the Chinese New Year approaches, but with expectations of rising global coal prices due to reduced supply from Indonesia [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rise, recommending a focus on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity growth [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 19,855.11 billion [2]. 2. Company Performance - Key companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy are projected to have strong earnings per share (EPS) growth, with respective estimates for 2026 at 0.40 and 0.76 [5]. - The report tracks the operational performance of listed companies, noting their dividend policies and growth prospects [12][14]. 3. Coal Price Tracking - The report provides insights into coal price trends, indicating that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port has seen a slight increase, while coking coal prices have experienced a decline [8][9]. - As of February 6, 2026, the average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines was 5.281 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.90% [8]. 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that supply from Indonesia is tightening due to government-imposed production cuts, which is expected to impact global coal prices positively [7][8]. - Demand for coal is projected to decline as industrial electricity consumption decreases with the approach of the Chinese New Year [7][8]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks, companies with significant production growth, and those positioned for recovery in coking coal prices [8][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline significantly in 2026 due to the revision of the RKAB quota, with production set at approximately 600 million tons, a notable decrease from 740 million tons in 2025 [6][7]. - The reduction in coal production is anticipated to lead to a tightening of coal supply, which may drive up global coal prices, particularly for thermal coal [7]. - The Indonesian government is implementing policies to control coal production and exports, aiming to enhance domestic energy security and increase fiscal revenue through coal export taxes [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the coal industry is 37, with a total market capitalization of approximately 198.55 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 194.41 billion yuan [2]. Regulatory Changes - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is reviewing the RKAB quotas, which are crucial for coal mining operations. The approval rate for the first batch of RKAB in 2026 was only 71.49%, with significant reductions in approved quotas for many companies [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic market obligation (DMO) will be adjusted to ensure local demand is met before allowing coal exports. The DMO demand is expected to remain above 250 million tons [7]. - The report predicts that Indonesia's coal exports will face substantial declines starting in Q2 2026, which will further constrain global coal supply and potentially elevate prices [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the thermal coal sector, including companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Huayang Co., and others, as they are expected to benefit from rising coal prices [7].

证券日报网讯2月6日，中煤能源（601898）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月底公司 A股股东户数78147户，H股6985户。 ...

证券日报网讯 2月6日，中煤能源在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司生产经营一切正常，没有应 披露未披露信息，请以公司在法定信息披露媒体披露信息为准。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies directly benefiting from Indonesian coal resources, including China Qinfa, Power Development, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others [11]. Core Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline by approximately 5.5% in 2025, with production estimated at 790 million tons, down from 836 million tons in 2024 [1][14]. - As the world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia's coal exports are projected to decrease by about 5.0% in 2025, with total exports expected to reach 505 million tons [2][20]. - The report highlights significant declines in coal export revenue and tax contributions, leading to increased fiscal pressure on the Indonesian government [3][28]. - Domestic coal demand is expected to grow robustly, driven by population growth and increasing electricity needs [31]. - The Indonesian government plans to implement a series of policies to tighten coal production quotas, increase export taxes, and enhance domestic market obligations (DMO) to support coal prices and increase tax revenue [4][36]. Summary by Sections Coal Production and Export Trends - In 2025, Indonesia's coal production is projected to be 790 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% from 2024 [1][14]. - The coal export volume for 2025 is expected to be 505 million tons, reflecting a 5.0% decline compared to the previous year [2][20]. - The export revenue for coal (excluding lignite) in the first eleven months of 2025 is reported at $22.17 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.27% [28]. Domestic Demand and Policy Changes - The IEA forecasts that Indonesia's coal consumption will reach approximately 266 million tons in 2025, primarily due to population growth and economic expansion [31]. - The Indonesian government is set to implement a "combination policy" to manage coal supply actively, which includes tightening production quotas and increasing export taxes [4][36]. Regulatory and Taxation Framework - New regulations will impose a progressive export tax ranging from 1% to 11%, depending on coal type and price, effective from 2026 [9][44]. - The introduction of stricter mining rights taxes linked to coal quality and production methods is expected to raise operational costs for coal producers [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes investment in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the changes in the Indonesian coal market, particularly those with strong domestic market presence and resilience to price fluctuations [11].

Group 1 - China Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd. (referred to as China Coal) is a state-owned enterprise supervised by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a history dating back to 1982 when it was established as the China Coal Import and Export Corporation [1][30] - The company has coal resource reserves exceeding 700 billion tons, with a total coal production capacity of 310 million tons per year and an annual coal trade volume of nearly 400 million tons [1][30] - China Coal operates 69 coal mines and has 11 coal chemical projects with a total capacity of over 20 million tons, producing products such as polyolefins, methanol, urea, ammonium nitrate, and coke [1][30] - The company has 35 thermal power projects in operation and under construction, with a total installed capacity of 47.55 million kilowatts, and a renewable energy installed capacity of 7 million kilowatts [1][30] - China Coal has been recognized as one of the Fortune Global 500 companies for six consecutive years and has achieved an A-level performance assessment from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission for six years [1][30] Group 2 - China Coal Xinji Energy Co., Ltd. is a secondary enterprise of China Coal located in Anhui Province, focusing on coal, electricity, and new energy [2][45] - The company has a production capacity of 23.5 million tons per year and a total installed capacity of 796,000 kilowatts for coal-fired power plants [2][45] - China Coal holds a 31.92% stake in Xinji Energy, with other shareholders including Guohua Energy and Anhui Xinji Coal Power [2][45] - The company is advancing the "two joint ventures" project to promote the coordinated development of coal, coal power, and new energy, aiming to exceed 10 million kilowatts in installed capacity by 2026 [2][45] Group 3 - China Coal Power Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Coal, established in January 2020, focusing on power production and sales, as well as new power system project development [15][57] - The company is constructing two 660,000-kilowatt ultra-supercritical coal-fired power units in Xinjiang, with a total investment of approximately 5.79168 billion yuan [15][57] - The project is expected to be completed and put into operation by 2026, featuring advanced technologies for emissions reduction [15][57] Group 4 - The Southwest Branch of China Coal was established in February 2023 in Chongqing, managing several companies and focusing on energy supply in the southwest region [31][62] - The branch aims to develop clean and efficient coal power, accelerate new energy development, and explore green chemical layouts [31][62] - The company is involved in various projects, including the construction of a coal-fired power project in Sichuan with a planned capacity of 2×1000MW [32][63]

Group 1 - Indonesia's export policy adjustment significantly reduces production quotas, reflecting a shift in the government's strategy for resource exports, including nickel and coal, aimed at controlling supply and increasing prices [1][2] - In February 2026, Indonesian mining officials announced a substantial reduction in coal production quotas by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, as part of a plan to boost coal prices [2] - Indonesia's coal production for 2025 is projected at 790 million tons, a 5% year-on-year decrease, with potential further reductions to 600 million tons in 2026, representing a 24% decline from 2025 [2] Group 2 - Global coal supply-demand balance may begin to shift in 2026, with supply contraction and rising demand, indicating a potential upward price cycle for coal [3] - Indonesia is expected to export 524 million tons of coal in 2025, a 6.1% decrease, and if production is limited to 600 million tons in 2026, exports could drop to 450 million tons, impacting global shipping trade [3] - Other countries, including Australia and Russia, are also facing production declines, contributing to a tightening global coal market [3] Group 3 - China's coal imports from Indonesia are projected to decline further in 2026, with an expected total of around 45 million tons, a decrease of approximately 4 million tons [4] - In 2025, Indonesia is expected to export 21 million tons of coal to China, a 10.6% year-on-year decrease, accounting for 42.9% of China's total coal imports [4] - Domestic coal prices in China are anticipated to recover in 2026, ending a four-year decline, supported by stable domestic supply and slightly reduced overseas imports [4] Group 4 - Companies with a clear outlook for volume and price elasticity over the next five years are recommended for investment, including Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225), China Coal Energy (601898), Jincheng Anthracite Mining (601001), and China Shenhua Energy (601088) [5] - Yancoal Australia (03668) is also recommended for investment in the Hong Kong market [5]

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry, particularly the impact of Indonesia's coal export policy adjustments on global and Chinese coal markets [1][3][12]. Key Points and Arguments - **Indonesia's Export Policy Changes**: Indonesia has significantly reduced its coal production quota for 2026, leading to an expected decrease in export volume by 90 million tons, primarily affecting the spot market while long-term contracts remain largely unaffected [1][4]. - **Impact on Small vs. Large Miners**: Smaller miners will face greater production pressure due to the new quotas, while large coal companies are less affected due to their long-term contracts [1][5]. - **Price Projections**: The anticipated supply contraction in the global thermal coal market, combined with improving demand, is expected to drive prices up. If Indonesia strictly enforces its export limits, coal prices could rise to 800 RMB/ton [1][9]. - **Profitability of Major Companies**: Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿) are projected to achieve significant profits, with estimates of 12 billion RMB in main business profits at a price of 750 RMB/ton, potentially reaching 16 billion RMB if prices rise to 800 RMB/ton [1][10]. - **China's Market Reaction**: A reduction of 40 million tons in Indonesian exports could lead to a price increase of approximately 100 RMB/ton in China, indicating a 15% upside potential from current prices [2][12]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with high market share and growth potential, such as Yanzhou, China Coal Energy, and Shenhua, while also considering companies that are sensitive to price changes [2][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Market Dynamics**: The overall trend indicates a tightening supply situation, which is expected to support higher prices in the coal market [8][9]. - **Government Revenue Considerations**: Indonesia's government aims to increase fiscal revenue through these export restrictions, and future policy adjustments will depend on the acceptance of price increases by downstream demand [7][8]. - **Potential for Future Adjustments**: The likelihood of policy changes post-Ramadan remains uncertain, with expectations that coal prices may strengthen in the first quarter [6][8]. - **Valuation Considerations**: Current valuations for companies like Yanzhou suggest significant investment potential, with projected earnings growth and a commitment to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of at least 60% [10][11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the coal industry's future, particularly in light of Indonesia's export policies and their implications for market dynamics and investment strategies.

Group 1 - The A-share market showed recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points, closing up 0.85% while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.21% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.4% [1] - The coal energy sector performed exceptionally well, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Meijin Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [1][2] - The coal mining and processing sector saw an overall increase of 7.92%, with several stocks achieving limit up, indicating strong market interest and performance [2] Group 2 - Recent cold weather has increased energy demand for heating, prompting local governments to enhance energy supply measures, which supports coal production and supply stability [3] - Analysts are optimistic about coal prices stabilizing and rebounding, with expectations of increased demand post-Chinese New Year, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance [3] - The coal ETF has risen over 10% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor interest and net inflows over the past four days [4] Group 3 - International thermal coal prices have significantly increased, with Australian Newcastle coal futures reaching a one-year high, indicating a bullish trend in the market [5] - Forecasts for the coal industry suggest a notable improvement in profitability by 2026, driven by a slowdown in supply growth and recovery in demand [5]