4613.96 煤炭指数昨日分时走势图 ◎记者 王文嫣 截至2月4日收盘，万得央企煤炭概念指数、万得煤炭开采精选指数涨幅分别达到7.61%和7.58%，中煤 能源、恒源煤电、兖矿能源、山西焦煤、潞安环能、山煤国际、晋控煤业等一批个股涨停。 煤炭企业人士、研究员认为，短期内煤价或受印尼矿商暂停现货煤炭出口等消息的扰动。从中长期来 看，煤炭供需基本面有望持续改善，年度价格中枢有望上移。 近年来，新疆煤炭产量迅速攀升，成为影响市场的重要变量。新疆维吾尔自治区统计局最新发布数据， 2025年全疆规模以上工业企业原煤累计产量5.53亿吨，同比增长1.9%，较2024年17.5%的增速明显放 缓。 煤炭市场已提前进入春节放假状态 卓创资讯煤炭行业报告认为，2026年国内动力煤供应量整体仍将保持在高位充裕水平，但考虑到国内超 产核查及"反内卷"工作将继续推进，且新增产能有限，同时煤矿或有控制产量以平衡库存保障利润行为 等因素影响产量，原煤产量增速将放缓的预期较强。 从供应端来看，主产区部分民营煤矿提前进入春节假期，国有煤矿维持稳定生产以保障供应，整体产量 边际收缩。 从需求端来看，前期寒潮推动沿海电厂日耗维持高位，但随着寒 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising to 4102.20 points, up 0.85% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21% to 14156.27 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.40% to 3311.51 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 250.33 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Solar Industry Strength - The solar industry chain, particularly the space solar sector, continued to show strength with companies like JinkoSolar and Zhonglai Co. hitting the 20% daily limit [2] - Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical announced that the "space solar" application is still in the exploratory phase, indicating uncertainty in the industrialization process [2] - JinkoSolar highlighted that space solar energy density is 7 to 10 times higher than ground-based systems, with generation hours increasing by 4 to 7 times [2][4] Group 3: Coal Sector Activity - The coal sector was notably active, with the Shenwan Coal Industry Index rising over 7%, leading all sectors [5] - Companies such as Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy saw their stocks hit the daily limit [5] - Recent trends show a stabilization and increase in coal prices, supported by seasonal demand and supply-side policies [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue its rebound, with analysts suggesting that the risk of disappointing earnings has diminished [6] - The market is anticipated to experience fluctuations, with a focus on growth styles in the near term [6] - Analysts recommend a balanced strategy in sector allocation, emphasizing technology, materials, and defensive high-dividend assets like coal [6]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.04 印尼削减产量配额，搅动全球煤炭贸易 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 印尼出口政策调整，大幅削减产量配额；全球煤炭 2026 年起供给收缩需求抬升，看 好上升周期；2026 年中国进口煤量或将进一步下降，国内煤价有望恢复增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《持仓略有提升，焦炭第一轮提价》 2026.02.02 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260202》2026.02.02 煤炭《Q4 基金持仓持续回升，板块拐点确认》 2026.01.30 煤炭《地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有 望修复》202 ...

Group 1 - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is a leading coal enterprise in Shandong, with core businesses including coal mining, washing, processing, coal chemical, and power generation, benefiting from the recent rise in coal prices due to increased energy supply demand and price stabilization expectations [1] - Lu'an Environmental Energy is a key coal enterprise in Shanxi, focusing on the mining and sales of high-quality coking coal, benefiting from the recovery in downstream steel industry demand, and actively promoting intelligent mining to enhance production efficiency [2] - China Coal Energy is a central state-owned enterprise with a comprehensive coal production and processing capability, experiencing valuation recovery due to rising coal prices and benefiting from resource integration and policy support [3] Group 2 - Meijin Energy focuses on coal mining, coking, and hydrogen fuel cells, with its hydrogen business benefiting from policy support and industry development, showing significant performance elasticity [4] - Shaanxi Black Cat is a coal coking enterprise with a complete coking industry chain, experiencing profit increases due to rising coke prices and industry consolidation, while focusing on intelligent upgrades and carbon reduction technology [5] - Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group is a major coal supplier in Shanxi, benefiting from valuation recovery and resource integration under state-owned enterprise reforms, while focusing on coal-electricity integration and accelerating new energy project implementation [6] Group 3 - Baotailong is a coal enterprise in Heilongjiang, with a diversified industry layout including graphene new materials, benefiting from rising coal and coking profits and growing demand for graphene [7] - Shanxi Coking Coal is a leading coking coal supplier, benefiting from rising coking coal prices due to recovery in the steel industry, while focusing on intelligent mining and exploring hydrogen energy integration [8] - Yunnan Coal Energy is a significant coal enterprise in Southwest China, benefiting from rising coal and coking profits and stable market demand due to regional energy supply needs [9] Group 4 - Shanxi Coal International is a coal enterprise with a complete coal trading network, benefiting from valuation recovery and resource integration under state-owned enterprise reforms, while focusing on coal-electricity integration and new energy projects [10] - Shanxi Coking Coal Group is a major coking coal supplier, benefiting from rising prices and focusing on intelligent mining and hydrogen energy integration [11] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry is a leading coal supplier in Shaanxi, benefiting from valuation recovery and resource integration, while focusing on coal-electricity integration and new energy projects [12] Group 5 - Dayou Energy is a key coal supplier in Henan, benefiting from valuation recovery and stable market demand due to regional energy supply needs [13] - Xinjie Energy is an important coal supplier in East China, benefiting from valuation recovery and stable market demand due to regional energy supply needs [14] - Pingmei Shenma Group is a significant coal supplier in Central China, benefiting from rising coking coal prices and focusing on intelligent mining and hydrogen energy integration [15] Group 6 - Haohua Energy is a key coal supplier in North China, benefiting from valuation recovery and resource integration under state-owned enterprise reforms [16] - China Shenhua Energy is a leading coal enterprise with a comprehensive industry layout, benefiting from valuation recovery and resource integration, while focusing on coal-electricity integration and new energy projects [17] - Hengyuan Coal Power is a significant coal supplier in East China, benefiting from valuation recovery and stable market demand due to regional energy supply needs [18] Group 7 - Kailuan Company is a major coal enterprise in Hebei, benefiting from rising coke prices and focusing on low-carbon technology upgrades and hydrogen energy integration [19] - Shanghai Energy is a key coal supplier in East China, benefiting from valuation recovery and stable market demand due to regional energy supply needs [20] - Antai Group is an independent coking enterprise, benefiting from rising coke prices and focusing on low-carbon technology upgrades and hydrogen energy integration [21] Group 8 - Zhengzhou Coal Power is a significant coal supplier in Central China, benefiting from valuation recovery and stable market demand due to regional energy supply needs [22] - Huaibei Mining is an important coking enterprise in East China, benefiting from rising coke prices and focusing on low-carbon technology upgrades and hydrogen energy integration [23] - Panjiang Coal and Electricity is a key coal supplier in Southwest China, benefiting from valuation recovery and stable market demand due to regional energy supply needs [24] Group 9 - Lanhua Science and Technology is a significant coking enterprise in North China, benefiting from rising coke prices and focusing on low-carbon technology upgrades and hydrogen energy integration [25] - Huayang Co. is a coal enterprise with a layout in sodium-ion batteries, benefiting from rising coal profits and policy support for new energy [26] - Jizhong Energy is a key coal supplier in North China, benefiting from valuation recovery and stable market demand due to regional energy supply needs [27] Group 10 - Gansu Energy and Chemical is a significant coal supplier in Northwest China, benefiting from valuation recovery and stable market demand due to regional energy supply needs [28] - Liaoning Energy is a key coal supplier in Northeast China, benefiting from valuation recovery and stable market demand due to regional energy supply needs [29] - Electric Power Investment Energy is a coal enterprise with a layout in wind and solar energy, benefiting from rising coal profits and policy support for new energy [30]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of China Coal Energy (601898) on February 4, with a 10% increase in stock price, is attributed to multiple factors including business fundamentals, sector sentiment, and a rebound from previous declines [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On February 4, China Coal Energy's stock surged to the daily limit, closing at 14.08 yuan, with a total trading volume of 9.55 billion yuan, approximately 2.3 times higher than the previous trading day [1]. - The stock experienced a net inflow of 159.13 million yuan from main funds, indicating strong market interest [1]. Group 2: Business Fundamentals - China Coal Energy's core business includes coal production and trade, coal chemical products, mining equipment manufacturing, pithead power generation, and financial services, with key products being thermal coal, coking coal, polyolefins, urea, and methanol [2]. - The company has a competitive advantage in coal mining, with production costs lower than most coal enterprises in China [2]. - The domestic fertilizer market is experiencing structural price increases, significantly enhancing short-term profitability for the company [2]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The company anticipates an additional production capacity of 6.4 million tons per year for coal and 900,000 tons per year for coal chemicals by the end of 2026 or 2027, which is expected to improve long-term profitability [2]. - Following a 7.38% drop in stock price on February 2, the market pressure was released, allowing for a potential rebound, further amplified by the collective rise in the coal mining sector [2].

印尼矿商暂停煤炭出口，煤价上行预期明 显加强 ——煤炭行业动态跟踪报告 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：2026 年国内煤炭供需基本稳定，海外扰动可能成为驱动煤价变化的主要因 素，目前印尼方面已出现明显扰动，煤价具有上涨可能。且从长期角度，全球煤炭贸易 成本将逐步抬升，对国内煤价将形成支撑。优质煤企此前的估值仅反映出"类债"价 值，随着煤价上涨可能性的提高，将逐步向"类债"+"煤价看涨期权"演变，这部分"看涨期 权"价值目前市场反应还较为有限，推荐中国神华(601088，增持)、中煤能源(601898， 增持)、陕西煤业(601225，增持)、晋控煤业(601001，增持)。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 行业名称 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant reduction in coal production quotas by the Indonesian government, which aims to boost coal prices by decreasing export volumes by 40% to 70% for major miners by 2025 [5] - Additionally, the Indonesian government plans to impose an export surcharge, which may further weaken the profitability of the coal industry [5] Group 2 - The article lists several companies involved in coal mining, coal chemical, and coal-electricity integration, including China Shenhua, Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [8][9]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to 4102.2 points, with the SSE 50 Index increasing over 1% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.21% [1][12] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 620 billion yuan from the previous day [1][12] - Over 3200 stocks in the A-share market closed higher, with significant gains in the coal sector [1][12] Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector experienced a collective surge, with over 10 stocks including Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy hitting the daily limit [3][14] - Notable stocks included Yanzhou Coal Energy up over 10%, China Coal Energy up over 8%, and Shanxi Coking Coal also seeing significant gains [2][14] - Reports indicated that Indonesian mining officials announced a substantial reduction in coal production quotas, leading to a halt in spot coal exports [14][16] Solar Industry Developments - The solar industry saw a significant rally, with stocks like JinkoSolar, Zhonglai Co., and Zairun New Energy all hitting the daily limit of 20% [6][16] - JinkoSolar's stock price reached 8.40 yuan, reflecting a 20% increase, while Zhonglai Co. also saw similar gains [7][17] - There were rumors of Elon Musk's team visiting several Chinese solar companies to explore potential collaborations, particularly in advanced technologies [17][18] Tencent's Stock Movement - Tencent Holdings experienced a sharp decline, closing down approximately 4% with a market capitalization of 509.06 billion HKD [10][18] - The drop was attributed to regulatory actions against third-party marketing practices on its WeChat platform, which affected user experience [20]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded strongly, closing above 4100 points with a gain of 0.85% at 4102.2 points, driven by banking and brokerage sectors [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 620 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Over 3200 stocks in the A-share market rose, with significant gains in the coal sector, real estate, insurance, and brokerage [1] Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector experienced a significant surge, with over 10 stocks hitting the daily limit, including Yanzhou Coal Mining and China Coal Energy, which saw gains of over 10% [4] - Reports indicated that Indonesian mining officials announced a substantial reduction in coal production quotas, leading to a halt in spot coal exports, which could impact global coal prices [5] - Analysts suggest that the coal market's focus this year will be on overseas developments rather than domestic factors, with potential price increases linked to U.S. demand and reduced Indonesian supply [6] Photovoltaic Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic sector saw a notable rise, with stocks like JinkoSolar and Zhonglai Co. hitting the daily limit of 20% [8] - Market rumors indicated that Elon Musk's team visited several Chinese photovoltaic companies to explore potential collaborations, particularly in advanced technologies [10] - JinkoSolar confirmed interactions with Musk's team, highlighting interest in their technological capabilities [10] Hong Kong Market Movements - In the Hong Kong market, Yanzhou Coal Mining rose over 10%, while major tech stocks like Tencent Holdings and Ctrip Group saw declines of approximately 4% and 6%, respectively [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded above 4100 points, while the ChiNext Index saw a recovery after hitting a low. The coal sector experienced a collective surge, with multiple stocks such as China Coal Energy and Lu'an Environmental Energy hitting the daily limit. The aviation sector also saw significant gains, with Huaxia Airlines and China Eastern Airlines reaching their daily limits. Overall, over 3200 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were in the green, with a total trading volume of 2.5 trillion yuan [1]. Coal Sector - The coal sector saw a substantial increase, with stocks like Shaanxi Black Cat, China Coal Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal hitting their daily limits. This surge is attributed to Indonesia's announcement of a significant reduction in coal production, with quotas lowered by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, aimed at boosting coal prices. The expected reduction in coal output could reach 36.2% if production is cut from 817 million tons to 600 million tons [4][6]. - Futures for coking coal rose by 3.6% today, indicating strong market sentiment [4]. - Analysts suggest that coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound due to supply constraints and resilient demand, with a projected price range of 570-770 yuan per ton [5][6]. Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic sector experienced another significant rise, with stocks like JinkoSolar and TCL Zhonghuan hitting their daily limits. Reports indicate that Elon Musk's team has been secretly visiting various Chinese photovoltaic companies to explore projects related to equipment, silicon wafers, and battery components, particularly focusing on heterojunction and perovskite technology [7][9]. - JinkoSolar confirmed recent contact with Musk's team, highlighting the growing interest in solar energy technologies [8]. Hydrogen Energy Sector - The hydrogen energy sector saw a notable increase, with companies like CIMC and Jingcheng股份 hitting their daily limits. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to leverage new national systems to promote breakthroughs in hydrogen energy and other fields, aiming for large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies and products [10][12]. - The hydrogen energy industry is expected to see significant growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with renewable hydrogen production capacity projected to exceed 250,000 tons per year by the end of 2025, potentially doubling during this period [12].