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开源证券晨会纪要-20260212
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-02-12 15:30
Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The US job market shows strong resilience in the short term, with January non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000, exceeding market expectations of 65,000 [5][6] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, lower than anticipated, while average hourly earnings grew by 3.7% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [5][6] - Labor force participation rate rose to approximately 62.5%, indicating a recovery in the labor market, although permanent unemployment rates have increased [7] Group 2: Inflation and Price Trends - January CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, below the expected 0.4%, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival [11][24] - PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, but the month-on-month increase of 0.4% marks a new high since 2024, indicating a potential upward trend in prices [15][25] - The report predicts that if PPI can maintain a month-on-month increase of 0.15-0.2%, CPI could rise to 2% year-on-year, impacting bond yields positively [26] Group 3: Liquid Cooling Industry Insights - The liquid cooling industry is entering a high-growth phase, with significant order increases reported by key players like Vertiv, which saw organic orders surge by 252% year-on-year [20][44] - Major tech companies, including NVIDIA and Google, are adopting liquid cooling as a standard for their next-generation platforms, indicating a shift from optional to mandatory technology [20][44] - The liquid cooling supply chain is being activated through mergers and expansions, with companies like Linyang Technology acquiring liquid cooling suppliers to enhance their market position [20][21] Group 4: Home Appliance Sector Analysis - Longxin General (隆鑫通用) is positioned as a leading player in the motorcycle and all-terrain vehicle market, with a strategic focus on product innovation and global expansion [50][51] - The company has seen significant growth in its premium motorcycle series, with revenue from the "无极" series increasing from 14.3% in 2020 to 30.5% in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 62.98% [52] - Longxin's partnership with Zongshen is expected to enhance its competitive edge through improved technology and supply chain management [51]
机械行业专题报告:摩托车行业2026年1月数据更新
Guohai Securities· 2026-02-12 13:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [1] Core Insights - The motorcycle export market remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 27% in January 2026, totaling 1.26 million units exported [10][14] - Domestic sales in January 2026 reached 340,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [14] - The overall motorcycle sales (domestic and export) for January 2026 amounted to 1.6 million units, marking a 27% year-on-year growth [14] Industry Data Update - In January 2026, the motorcycle sales by displacement categories were as follows: - Sales of motorcycles with displacement between 150cc and 250cc reached 170,000 units, up 13% year-on-year [15] - Sales of motorcycles with displacement over 250cc totaled 64,000 units, up 8% year-on-year [15] - The total sales for motorcycles in January 2026 included 340,000 units domestically and 1.26 million units exported [14][19] Company Data Update - **Chunfeng Power**: - Total sales in January 2026 were 19,000 units, a 44% increase year-on-year [22] - Electric motorcycle sales surged by 208% year-on-year, totaling 29,000 units [22] - **Qianjiang Motorcycle**: - Total sales in January 2026 were 35,000 units, down 4% year-on-year [29] - Sales of motorcycles with displacement between 150cc and 250cc increased by 141% year-on-year [29] - **Longxin General**: - Total sales in January 2026 were 81,000 units, down 42% year-on-year [37] - Sales of motorcycles with displacement over 250cc increased by 28% year-on-year [37]
隆鑫通用:公司首次覆盖报告全排量段摩托车龙头,自主品牌矩阵引领全球化突破-20260212
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-02-12 07:20
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Longxin General (隆鑫通用) as a first-time coverage [1] Core Views - Longxin General is a leading company in the motorcycle and all-terrain vehicle sectors in China, with a strategic focus on three main business areas: motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles, and general machinery. The company has made significant advancements in high-end motorcycle series and smart garden machinery through continuous technological innovation [2][4] - The collaboration with Zongshen Power, a major shareholder, is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness through synergies in technology research and development, supply chain management, and overseas channels [2] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.73 billion, 2.25 billion, and 2.70 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84, 1.10, and 1.31 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 18.9, 14.5, and 12.1 times for the same years [2] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue is expected to grow from 13.066 billion yuan in 2023 to 27.396 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 12.7% from 2020 to 2024 [6][28] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 583 million yuan in 2023 to 2.698 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 23.6% during the same period [6][28] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 18% from 2024 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to rise from 4.5% in 2023 to 9.8% in 2027 [6][28] - The company’s EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.28 yuan in 2023 to 1.31 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong earnings growth [6][28] Business Development - Longxin General has optimized its business structure by focusing on core areas and divesting non-core businesses, which has led to improved profitability [3][28] - The motorcycle segment is expected to see significant growth, with the high-end "Wuji" brand contributing over 30% of motorcycle revenue by 2024, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.9% from 2020 to 2024 [4][52] - The all-terrain vehicle segment is also experiencing rapid growth, with a revenue increase of 73.9% in 2024 [54] - The company is expanding its global presence, with products sold in over 90 countries and more than 2,000 sales points worldwide [4][39] Strategic Changes - The recent change in shareholding structure, with Zongshen New Manufacturing becoming the controlling shareholder, is expected to bring significant synergies and enhance governance [3][22] - The management team remains stable, with experienced leaders who have been with the company for many years, ensuring continuity in strategic execution [25][26]
隆鑫通用(603766):公司首次覆盖报告:全排量段摩托车龙头,自主品牌矩阵引领全球化突破
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-02-12 06:50
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Longxin General (603766.SH) for the first time [1]. Core Views - Longxin General is a leading company in the motorcycle and all-terrain vehicle sectors in China, with a strategic focus on three main business areas: motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles, and general machinery. The company has made significant advancements in high-end motorcycles and smart garden machinery through continuous product innovation [2][4]. - The collaboration with Zongshen Power, a major shareholder, is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness through synergies in technology research and development, supply chain management, and overseas channels [2][3]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.73 billion, 2.25 billion, and 2.70 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84, 1.10, and 1.31 yuan, leading to a PE ratio of 18.9, 14.5, and 12.1 times [2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 13.066 billion yuan in 2023 to 27.396 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 583 million yuan in 2023 to 2.698 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 19.7% [6]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 18% from 2024 onwards, while the net margin is projected to rise from 4.5% in 2023 to 9.8% in 2027 [6]. Business Development - Longxin General has optimized its business structure by focusing on core areas and divesting non-core businesses, which has led to improved profitability. The motorcycle and engine business revenue is expected to grow significantly, contributing to 75.4% of total revenue by 2024 [20][28]. - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix covering various motorcycle segments, including high-performance models under the "VOGE" brand, which is expected to drive growth in the mid to high displacement motorcycle market [20][39]. - The all-terrain vehicle (ATV) segment is also experiencing growth, with a revenue increase of 73.9% in 2024, supported by a robust product lineup and expansion into international markets [54][58]. Strategic Changes - The recent change in the company's shareholding structure, with Zongshen New Manufacturing becoming the controlling shareholder, is anticipated to bring significant synergies and enhance governance [3][22]. - The management team remains stable, with experienced leaders who have been with the company for many years, ensuring continuity in strategic execution [25][26]. Market Position - Longxin General has established a global distribution network covering over 90 countries and more than 2,000 sales points, enhancing its brand presence and operational capabilities [4][39]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles, particularly in international markets, as it continues to innovate and expand its product offerings [4][39].
汽车:摩托质价比破局时刻已至
HTSC· 2026-02-11 02:20
证券研究报告 汽车 摩托质价比破局时刻已至 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 10 日│中国内地 专题研究 核心观点:质价比破局时刻已至,摩托出海步入收获期 本届米兰展上我们观察到,欧洲摩托市场的需求结构演变,以及外资二线品 牌的守成产品策略,正为中国品牌的强势突围提供契机。随着以隆鑫、春风 为代表的中国头部摩企在技术储备与渠道建设上完成质的积累,向欧洲出海 已跨越单纯的价格竞争阶段,步入以"质价比"重塑市场格局的新周期。中国 摩企凭借动总技术突破、智能化配置优势以及针对欧洲本土审美的定制化设 计,正于 300 至 800cc 黄金排量段及跨界细分市场建立明显优势,在欧洲 市场具备广阔增长空间。 米兰展透视:中量级和跨界车趋势兴起,利好中国品牌切入 行业维度看,欧洲摩托市场短期受库存调整扰动,但长期稳健扩容态势未改, 且内部结构性机遇凸显,为中国品牌创造了突围机会:1)通胀推升价格敏 感度叠加年轻骑手占比提高,驱动排量需求向中量级收敛;2)用户偏好转 向多场景兼容,供给相对稀缺的跨界车型加速渗透。格局维度看,本届米兰 展上,一线日系本田、雅马哈凭借顶尖电控技术普惠夯实护城河,宝马依托 GS 生态势能下探排量扩圈 ...
整车主线周报:404批工信部新车公告发布,蔚来25Q4业绩超预期
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-10 00:25
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the passenger vehicle sector, driven by the implementation of subsidy policies and a shift in consumer demand. It emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-end electric vehicle manufacturers that are less sensitive to policy fluctuations, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Geely [25][26]. - In the heavy truck segment, the report anticipates a positive outlook for 2026, projecting domestic sales to reach 800,000 to 850,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3% [30][28]. - The bus market is expected to see growth in 2026, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, supported by the continuation of subsidy policies [30][29]. - The motorcycle sector is projected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a significant focus on the large-displacement motorcycle market [26]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - Short-term recovery is anticipated in the passenger vehicle sector due to established subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and companies less affected by policy changes [25][26]. - Key companies to watch include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and BYD, among others [25]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, wholesale heavy truck sales reached 1.144 million units, a 26.8% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales of 799,000 units, up 32.8% [30]. - The report recommends leading heavy truck manufacturers such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and FAW Jiefang [30][28]. Buses - The bus market saw a slight decline in 2025, with sales of 29,000 units, down 6% year-on-year. However, a rebound is expected in 2026, with a projected 40% increase in sales [30][29]. - Recommended companies include Yutong Bus and King Long [30]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is forecasted to grow, with total sales expected to reach 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, driven by large-displacement models [26]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [26].
隆鑫通用(603766) - 隆鑫通用动力股份有限公司关于第三期员工持股计划的进展公告
2026-02-06 09:45
隆鑫通用动力股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")分别于 2025 年 12 月 24 日和 2026 年 1 月 9 日召开第五届董事会第十二次会议和 2026 年第一次临时股东 会,审议通过了《关于<公司第三期员工持股计划(草案)>及其摘要的议案》, 同意公司设立第三期员工持股计划,并授权公司董事会办理员工持股计划相关的 事宜。具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 12 月 25 日和 2026 年 1 月 10 日在上海证券 交易所网站(www.sse.com.cn)披露的相关公告及文件。 股票代码:603766 股票简称:隆鑫通用 编码:临 2026-007 隆鑫通用动力股份有限公司 关于第三期员工持股计划的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 隆鑫通用动力股份有限公司 董事会 2026 年 2 月 7 日 - 1 - 根据《关于上市公司实施员工持股计划试点的指导意见》和《上海证券交易 所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——规范运作》等相关规定和要求,现将公司第 三期员工持股计划进展情况公告如下: 截至本公告 ...
隆鑫通用:公司密切关注电动两轮车行业发展动态
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2026-02-05 12:40
Core Viewpoint - Longxin General (603766) is closely monitoring the development dynamics of the electric two-wheeler industry and is systematically advancing its business planning and layout in this sector [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company is leveraging its technological accumulation and industrial resources to actively explore new opportunities in the new energy mobility sector [1] - Longxin General aims to achieve an industrial vision of "one platform, multiple power sources, global layout" [1]
隆鑫通用:公司与上海智元、永川政府确已达成合作意向
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2026-02-04 12:43
(文章来源:证券日报) 证券日报网讯 2月4日,隆鑫通用在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示,截至目前,公司与上海智元、永 川政府确已达成合作意向,但具体合作内容及具体合作方案尚在确定过程中,仍存在不确定性,亦请投 资者注意投资风险。此次合作是公司立足主业、面向未来进行战略布局的重要一步,公司希望通过合作 在技术、制造等方面与摩托车及动力主业形成协同,为主业的智能化、高端化发展注入新动能。但需要 强调的是,新项目的研发与产业化具有长期性和重大不确定性,公司的核心基石与当前业绩来源仍是摩 托车主业,公司也将审慎、有序地推进新领域的投资与创新。公司将根据相关合作的进展,依法依规履 行信息披露义务,所有重大信息请以公司官方信息披露为准。 ...
隆鑫通用:公司将审慎、有序地推进新领域的投资与创新
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2026-02-04 12:40
证券日报网讯 2月4日,隆鑫通用在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示,公司与上海智元于2025年12月5日 在重庆签署《战略合作协议》,此次合作也是公司立足主业、面向未来进行战略布局的重要一步,但具 体合作方案和内容尚在确定过程中,新项目的拓展存在长期性和不确定性。公司的核心基石与当前业绩 来源仍是摩托车主业,公司也将审慎、有序地推进新领域的投资与创新。公司将根据相关合作的进展, 依法依规履行信息披露义务,所有重大信息请以公司官方信息披露为准。同时,根据相关规定,公司第 三期员工持股计划在26年1月9日经股东大会审批通过后,将按月履行实施进展,具体信息请以公司正式 公告为准。 (文章来源:证券日报) ...