炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：AI蓝媒汇 作者 | 封华 编辑 | 魏晓 央视春晚的关注度，依旧无人能及，科技企业们纷纷不愿错过今年春晚。 这届春节，最忙的当属机器人。宇树科技为"机器人合作伙伴"、银河通用为"指定具身大模型机器人"、 魔法原子为"智能机器人战略合作伙伴"、追觅科技为"智能科技生态战略合作伙伴"等等 这时不禁要问，曾经风光无限的"扫地茅"石头科技去哪了？为何没有挤入这场品牌流量狂欢？ 石头科技正面临更紧迫的任务，其在今年初第二次冲击在港股上市，试图讲述新的故事。 然而，石头科技早已不复往日辉煌的光景。 2021年石头科技最高价一度飙至1494.99元/股，市值逼近千亿，成为A股仅次于茅台的第二高价股，一 度被称为"扫地茅"。 但截至今年2月11日收盘，其总市值只剩394亿元，缩水超5成。 石头科技尝试寻求第二增长曲线，曾切入洗衣机领域，昌敬也投身于新能源造车事业，但都没有起色。 登陆港股，石头科技不仅需要筹措新的弹药，还需要讲述一个值得畅想的新故事。关键在于，石头科技 的试错机会，还有多少。 32亿元营销，不如上个春晚 当前的石头科技，正处于一 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，预计2026年家电基本面走势为内需盘整、外需底部改 善，总体表现平稳，国补政策过渡之年，基本面或难展望较大弹性。家电板块2026年行情或值得期待， 一是基本面预期有望向上，贸易摩擦缓和、海外降息预期正向，家电企业出海表现或有惊喜，内需也有 创新活力、品类外拓等关注点;二是风格切换后具备弹性，2025H2的相对跑输已经超过了2014-2015H1 阶段的科技行情，当前板块仓位调整充分，家电龙头的股息率、估值以及增长指标已经显示出较强的竞 争力。 展望后续，即便假设政策完全退出，内销量价仍有底，同比或逐季改善;外销关税、利率环境好转，有 望先于内销迎来拐点，整体来看，2026年板块内外销筑底向上，龙头经营韧性突出，品牌出海势能强 劲，新兴市场产能布局加持，弱β阶段表现有望超越行业。当前板块相对估值仍在历史偏低分位，岁末 年初价值风格回暖，预期逐步改善，基本面尚在左侧，估值向上有空间。 标的方面，一、推荐性价比优势突出的白电龙头美的集团、海尔智家、海信家电、格力电器;二、推荐 综合实力领先,份额及盈利中枢稳步提升的彩电龙头海信视像，关注TCL电子;三、推荐海内外高景气的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly for major players in the white goods sector, indicating a favorable investment environment for 2025 [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the "trade-in" policy and improvements in overseas production capacity, leading to enhanced profitability in the supply chain [2][5]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. **Dividend**: Major white and black appliance companies are characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth, providing a high margin of safety and significant elasticity in stock prices [6][7]. 2. **Technology**: Core component manufacturers are transitioning into emerging tech fields such as robotics and semiconductor cooling, seeking cross-industry growth [7]. 3. **Export**: Recovery in export demand and sustained domestic sales of new products, particularly in the small appliance sector, are expected to drive growth [7]. Summary by Sections 1. White Goods and Components - In 2025, the air conditioning sector is projected to produce 195.37 million units, a 3% year-on-year decline, while sales are expected to reach 198.39 million units, down 1% year-on-year, with domestic sales increasing by 1% [5][13]. - The average price of white goods is declining due to high base effects from the trade-in policy, with air conditioning prices dropping by 13% year-on-year [23][24]. 2. Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is experiencing a recovery driven by real estate and trade-in policies, with online sales of range hoods and gas stoves increasing by 7.9% and 1.7% respectively in 2025 [33][34]. - Major companies like Boss Electric and Vatti are leveraging trade-in policies to boost sales, with Boss Electric maintaining a leading market share in range hoods [35][36]. 3. Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is seeing a revival due to the trade-in policy, with significant growth in cleaning appliances, although overall market consumption remains subdued [6][7]. - Companies like Roborock and Ecovacs are expected to benefit from high demand for new products, with projected revenue growth of 34% and 12% respectively in Q4 2025 [5][7]. 4. New Displays and Lighting - The emerging display sector is at a turning point, while the lighting industry is anticipated to see growth as it awaits market recovery [6][7]. - Companies like Hisense and OP Lighting are expected to experience revenue declines in Q4 2025, with projections of -10% and -2% respectively [6][7]. 5. Investment Highlights - The report recommends a combination of leading white goods companies such as Haier, Midea, and Gree, along with Hisense, as they are currently undervalued and offer stable growth prospects [6][7]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of component manufacturers adapting to new technologies and markets, with companies like Huaxiang and Sanhua expected to see significant growth in their respective sectors [7][29][30].

石头科技 20260205 摘要 石头科技 2025 年扫地机外销市场净利润稳定，欧洲和亚太地区净利润 率约 20%，美国约 5%，全年预计贡献 20 亿元净利润。内销市场因竞 争加剧及自补措施亏损 1 亿元，为近十年首次。 2025 年石头科技洗衣机业务亏损 5-6 亿元，洗地机业务亏损 2 亿元， 割草机器人业务亏损 1 亿元，新业务成为主要财务拖累。割草机器人订 单虽多，但收入确认滞后。 石头科技计划 2026 年通过裁撤洗衣机事业部、停止洗地机自补、割草 机器人订单交付等措施，预计新业务减亏 7 亿元，显著减轻财务压力。 石头科技洗地机外销占比提升，预计 2026 年收入达 50 亿元，外销贡 献 30%，净利润率接近 10%，有望实现盈利，扭转 2025 年亏损局面。 石头科技推出低成本滚筒扫地机器人应对竞争，并改进供应链管理，但 滚筒方案并非唯一主流，平板拖和双转盘方案将持续迭代。 石头科技通过 Costco 等线下渠道拓展美国市场，精简 SKU 和亲民价格 策略助力迅速起量，有望复制线上体量，为未来增长提供动力。 2025 年石头科技各项业务表现如何？ 2025 年，石头科技各项业务表现如下： ...

【申万宏源家电】扫地机1月数据更新 # 1月扫地机线上数据由于受以旧换新政策与春节前置消费错期拉动同比增长，石头科技份额仍大幅提升，头部效 应明显： 据奥维云网数据，扫地机1月线上销额同比+7.9%，销量同比+4.5%，均价同比-1%。 市占率方面，1月线上石头/科沃斯/云鲸/追觅销额市占率同比+8.0%/+5.1%/-3.4%/-7.8%，达到 31.0%/29.1%/11.0%/11.6%，石头/科沃斯/云鲸/追觅销售额同比+6.6%/+5.3%/-2.2%/-4.5%。 【申万宏源家电】扫地机1月数据更新 # 1月扫地机线上数据由于受以旧换新政策与春节前置消费错期拉动同比增长，石头科技份额仍大幅提升，头部效 应明显： 据奥维云网数据，扫地机1月线上销额同比+7.9%，销量同比+4.5%，均价同比-1%。 市占率方面，1月线上石头/科沃斯/云鲸/追觅销额市占率同比+8.0%/+5.1%/-3.4%/-7.8%，达到 31.0%/29.1%/11.0%/11.6%，石头/ # 新品及份额点评： 1月销售冠军单品仍然为石头P20 Ultra plus，8月上市以来月市占率始终第一。 整体成交均价高于位列第二的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while the domestic subsidy effect is slowing, the "Two New" policy is expected to stimulate greater consumer potential in the home appliance sector. Leading white goods companies with higher energy efficiency product ratios and mature trade-in management processes are likely to benefit more significantly [3]. - The long-term strategy of expanding overseas production capacity remains a key focus, with companies that diversify their production locations expected to outperform. The report anticipates a valuation shift in 2026, particularly for companies like Roborock Technology and Lek Electric [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stable performance in core businesses and the potential for developing secondary growth avenues, with companies like Anfu Technology being highlighted for their strong cash flow and manufacturing capabilities [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Insights - The report notes that the domestic market is experiencing a marginal slowdown in subsidy effects, but ongoing policy optimizations are expected to unlock more consumer potential [3]. Overseas Expansion - Companies are increasingly focusing on overseas production as a long-term strategy, with expectations of accelerated price increases starting in Q1 2026 due to tariff impacts and rising raw material costs [3]. Investment Recommendations - Key investment themes include: - Leading companies with higher operational efficiency and stable dividend yields are recommended for conservative allocation, with Haier Smart Home and Hisense Visual Technology as notable mentions [3]. - Companies with a focus on international expansion are expected to see valuation shifts, with Roborock Technology and Lek Electric recommended for buying [3]. - Companies with stable core business performance and potential for secondary growth avenues, such as Anfu Technology, are also highlighted [3].

市场的担心：净利率下跌与行业竞争何时能改善 P20 活水版，就在一定程度 上解决了这个问题。我们预计，2026 年石头会推出更多滚筒产品，2026 年 1 月已经 推出新滚筒产品 P20 Ultra 活水版，进一步补全滚筒产品 SKU 以应对行业竞争。 科沃斯滚筒 的成本优势+营销效率高，使 2025Q3 石头与科沃斯内销净利率出现 分化。对于科沃斯来说，2025Q3 国补暂停后的自补，更像是一种以价换量，并非恶 意价格竞争。对于石头来讲，7 月并没有跟进，但是 由于 7 月内销市占率下降较多， 担心影响到双十一流量，在 8 月开始跟进，最终造成 2025Q3 扫地机、 洗地机内销出 现亏损。 2.2、 问题二：石头科技内销没有长期亏损的逻辑 市场的担心：净利率下跌与行业竞争何时能改善 2025Q3 以来，公司股价出现下跌，主系以下原因： （1）2025Q3 国内扫地机业务亏损。公司由于 2025Q3 国家以旧换新补贴暂停， 同行业厂商发起自补，公司为了维持市场占有率以及不影响双十一流 量选择跟 进，导致 2025Q3 国内扫地机、洗地机业务出现亏损。但是 2025Q3 外销的收入 和净利率均符 合预期。 （ ...

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Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards second-hand goods [6][7][8][9]. - **Pet Economy**: With declining birth rates, young people are spending more on pets, leading to significant growth in pet food and healthcare products. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend [11][12][14][15]. - **Adult Care Products**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a growing demand for adult care products in China, with companies like Kexin showing potential for growth [16][17][18]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: The rise in health consciousness has led to increased demand for sugar-free beverages and functional drinks. Brands like Dongfang Shuye and Jianchun are gaining traction in this sector [21][22]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, including collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices, is on the rise. Companies like Jinbo Biological are seeing significant market value growth [23][25]. - **Outdoor and Leisure Products**: The outdoor equipment market is thriving, with brands like Kailas and Camel experiencing rapid sales growth, as consumers seek leisure activities despite economic constraints [25][26][27]. - **Emotional Economy**: Brands like Labubu and Rio are tapping into the emotional needs of consumers, providing products that offer comfort and joy, even in a tight economic climate [28][29][30]. - **Convenience Economy**: The demand for convenience products, such as frozen foods and smart home appliances, is increasing as younger generations spend less time cooking. Companies like Anjijia and Kewot are benefiting from this trend [33][35][36]. Group 2: Market Trends - The article emphasizes that the current economic climate, often viewed as a "winter," presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors. The key to success lies in recognizing and seizing these opportunities [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the nominal appreciation of the RMB is expected to have limited impact on export recovery and external sales profitability, as leading brands have strong pricing power, overseas production capacity, and effective foreign exchange hedging [8][11] - The report emphasizes that the home appliance sector is likely to benefit from increased foreign capital inflow due to RMB appreciation, with the sector's valuation and holdings at historical lows, indicating significant upside potential [7][8] Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Nominal Appreciation and Dollar Price Elasticity - Since Q2 2025, the RMB has appreciated approximately 5% due to the easing of trade tensions and economic recovery expectations, with the CFETS index remaining close to its 3-5 year average [11][12] - The report discusses the impact of exchange rates on export volume and pricing, noting that during appreciation phases, exporters may adjust dollar prices or lower RMB prices to mitigate the effects of appreciation [12][22] 2. Financial Statements: External Sales Profitability and Hedging - External sales gross margins have been under pressure, with historical data showing that external sales margins are generally weaker than domestic sales margins [4][6] - The report indicates that major companies have high foreign exchange hedging ratios, which effectively mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on their financials [4][6] 3. Capital: High Foreign Ownership Proportion - The report notes a strong correlation between RMB appreciation and net inflows of foreign capital, with the home appliance sector consistently attracting significant foreign investment [7][8] - The sector's Northbound trading and public fund holdings are at historical lows, suggesting ample room for upward movement [7] 4. Industry Perspective and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that under the expectation of moderate appreciation, the competitive edge of leading companies backed by domestic supply chain advantages and proactive overseas capacity expansion will remain intact [8] - Recommended stocks include high-quality white goods leaders such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as TV leader Hisense Visual and global leaders in robotic vacuum cleaners like Roborock and Ecovacs [8]