Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) [1] Core Insights - UBS has raised the revenue forecast for SMIC for 2026 to 2029 by 4% to reflect greater domestic opportunities and improved supply-demand dynamics, but has lowered the profit forecast by 8% to 18% due to higher depreciation burdens [1] - The target price is set at HKD 76, based on a projected price-to-book ratio of 3.3 times over the next 12 months, with a long-term return on equity of 11.3% [1] - SMIC's net profit for the last quarter increased by 4.5% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding previous guidance of a 0% to 2% increase and market expectations of a 1.3% increase, driven by slight growth in wafer shipments and average selling prices [1] - The gross margin was reported at 19.2%, aligning with the guidance range of 18% to 20%, but below the market expectation of 20% [1] Revenue and Capacity Outlook - With the 8-inch chip capacity utilization exceeding 100% and the 12-inch chip capacity nearing full operation, management forecasts that capital expenditures this year will remain at USD 8.1 billion, with a projected capacity increase of 40k wafers per month for 12-inch capacity by year-end to meet strong domestic demand from fabless companies [1] - SMIC aims to focus on expanding in areas with tight supply, such as BCD chips, memory, and memory-related products [1] - Management predicts that sales will remain flat in the first quarter, with a gross margin expected to be between 18% and 20%, and sales growth anticipated to exceed the industry average for the year [1] Depreciation and Margin Pressure - The report indicates that due to ongoing business expansion, management expects depreciation expenses to increase by 30% year-on-year this year, maintaining high levels into next year, which will further pressure gross margins [2] - UBS currently forecasts a gross margin of 20% for the first quarter and 21.2% for the entire year, with depreciation pressure expected to be offset by a more favorable pricing environment [2]

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "stable improvement" for the next 12 to 18 months, with potential for upward adjustments based on demand growth from automotive electronics and artificial intelligence [5][7]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry in China is expected to benefit from effective industrial support policies, accelerating domestic substitution processes, and a stable upward trend in credit quality [5][8]. - The competition in the semiconductor industry remains a key national focus, with ongoing support for high-end breakthroughs and supply chain management [7][9]. - The recovery of the semiconductor industry is driven by the mild recovery in consumer electronics and rapid development in automotive electronics and artificial intelligence [19][24]. - The global semiconductor sales reached approximately $697.18 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.22%, indicating a new recovery cycle after a previous downturn [20][24]. - The domestic semiconductor market in China is projected to reach $210.88 billion in 2025, growing by 14.68% year-on-year, driven by AI and automotive electronics [24]. Industry Fundamentals Analysis - The semiconductor industry is supported by a comprehensive policy framework that includes national and local government initiatives aimed at enhancing self-sufficiency and technological breakthroughs [9][10]. - The production of integrated circuits in China reached 484.3 billion units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 87.28%, with exports also showing significant growth [11][24]. - The industry is characterized by a high degree of concentration, with the top ten chip design companies holding over 65% of the market share globally, predominantly led by U.S. firms [30][31]. Credit Performance of Industry Enterprises - The overall financial performance of the semiconductor industry has improved, with revenue, profit, and operating cash flow showing growth, while debt levels remain manageable [29]. - The industry has not experienced any bond extensions or defaults, indicating a stable credit environment [29]. - The chip design sector has seen rapid growth, particularly in AI chip manufacturers, which have outperformed other segments [31].

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor manufacturing company SMIC has received investment from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, holding 1.61% of the total share capital, indicating strong governmental support for the company and the industry [2]. Company Overview - SMIC is the largest integrated circuit manufacturing enterprise group in mainland China, known for its advanced technology and comprehensive support [2]. - The company specializes in wafer foundry services based on various technology nodes and platforms, providing design services, IP support, and photomask manufacturing [2]. - As of September 30, 2025, SMIC reported a revenue of 49.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.22%, and a net profit of 3.82 billion yuan, up 41.09% year-on-year [5]. Market Performance - On February 13, SMIC's stock rose by 0.30%, with a trading volume of 4.02 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.72%, bringing the total market capitalization to 935.50 billion yuan [1]. - The stock's average trading cost is 122.58 yuan, with current price levels between resistance at 125.50 yuan and support at 111.80 yuan, suggesting potential for range trading [4]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of SMIC include several ETFs, with notable reductions in holdings from major funds like E Fund and Huaxia [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report aligns with the views of CITIC Securities and maintains a positive outlook on SMIC, indicating that the company's performance is expected to meet market expectations [5][6]. Core Insights - SMIC's Q4 2025 performance and Q1 2026 guidance are in line with expectations, with a revenue increase of 4.5% quarter-on-quarter to $2.49 billion, surpassing the guidance of 0%-2% [6]. - The company anticipates that the supply of consumer electronic storage chips will ease within 9-12 months due to new capacity ramp-up and inventory release [7]. - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to remain flat at $8.1 billion, while depreciation expenses are expected to rise by 30% year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue reached $2.49 billion, with a gross margin of 19.2%, which is within the guidance range of 18%-20% [6]. - The Q1 2026 revenue guidance is expected to remain stable at $2.49 billion, with a gross margin forecasted between 18%-20% [6]. Capital Expenditure and Depreciation - Capital expenditures for 2025 were $8.1 billion, exceeding guidance due to strong customer demand and geopolitical uncertainties affecting equipment delivery [8]. - The company plans to increase its 12-inch wafer capacity by 40,000 pieces per month in 2026, while maintaining high capacity utilization to mitigate depreciation pressure [8]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that SMIC will benefit from the deepening domestic substitution of mature and advanced process chips [9]. - Factors such as improved yield rates in advanced processes and progress in domestic deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV) are seen as catalysts for growth [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant surge in Chinese AI model stocks, particularly with companies like Zhiyu and MiniMax experiencing substantial price increases, with Zhiyu rising over 130% in five trading days and MiniMax increasing over 40% in the same period [1] - The launch of new AI models such as GLM-5 by Zhiyu and Minimax 2.5 by MiniMax is expected to drive further interest and investment in the sector, with additional models from Alibaba and ByteDance anticipated to be released around the Chinese New Year [1] - Korean retail investors are actively purchasing Chinese AI model stocks, indicating a shift in investment preferences towards emerging technology companies, as evidenced by their buying patterns in the Hong Kong stock market [2][4] Group 2 - Data from the Korea Securities Depository shows that Korean investors have favored stocks like MiniMax and various ETFs related to Chinese technology and semiconductors, reflecting a strong interest in these sectors [2][3] - The Korean stock market has seen a remarkable increase, with the composite index rising by 130% since 2025, largely driven by a few major stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which have contributed significantly to the overall market performance [6][7] - The trend of Korean retail investors converting their currency to invest in foreign markets, including the Chinese stock market, has raised concerns about the depreciation of the Korean won, as highlighted by the Bank of Korea [10][11]

Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor and memory chip sectors in A-shares experienced significant gains, with stocks like Weidao Nano rising over 14% and Deep Technology hitting the daily limit [1][2] - In the Hong Kong market, semiconductor and chip stocks were also active, with Aixin Yuanzhi increasing by over 15% [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance of Key Players - Kioxia reported a strong financial performance for Q3 of FY2025, achieving revenue of 543.6 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 20.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.3% [5][6] - The company expects operating profit for FY2025 to reach between 709.57 billion yen and 799.57 billion yen, significantly exceeding market expectations [7] Group 3: Market Trends and Demand - The demand for AI computing power is driving strong growth in the memory chip sector, with significant price increases expected for NAND flash memory [8] - The global semiconductor sales are projected to reach $791.7 billion in 2025, a 25.6% increase from 2024, with expectations of surpassing $1 trillion in 2026 [9] - The semiconductor equipment market is anticipated to grow, with TSMC planning capital expenditures of $52 billion to $56 billion in 2026, a substantial increase from $40.9 billion in 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a potential for significant growth in the coming months [6][44]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rapid release of computing power demand driven by the dual forces of training and inference, with 2026 identified as a pivotal year for this transition [6]. - Major internet companies are intensifying their competition in AI, leading to a surge in demand for high-quality, multi-modal models, which in turn is expected to drive substantial growth in computing power requirements [11][25]. - The supply side is expected to improve structurally, with domestic computing power resources becoming more abundant, thus supporting the anticipated demand explosion [6][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Release of Computing Power Demand - The "arms race" in large models continues unabated, with leading internet firms like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent releasing new models with trillions of parameters, enhancing their competitive edge [11][12]. - The demand for inference computing power is rising at an unexpected rate, with significant user growth reported for AI applications, particularly the Doubao app, which reached 226 million monthly active users by December 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of over 200% [6][25]. 2. Supply Side Improvements and Domestic Production Acceleration - The approval of NVIDIA's H200 AI chips for the Chinese market is expected to alleviate computing power shortages for major internet firms, facilitating faster model iterations [32]. - Domestic computing power chips have reached a performance level that is now considered "good enough," with significant advancements in local chip development and deployment [33]. 3. Full-Chain Inflation in Domestic Computing Power - The report predicts that the computing power industry will enter a "full-chain inflation" cycle in 2026, with growth expected across various segments including AIDC, cloud services, and supporting power equipment [38]. - Major tech companies are projected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, with estimates suggesting that the four largest tech firms in Silicon Valley will spend up to $650 billion in 2026 [40]. 4. Related Companies - The report lists several companies as relevant to the industry, including Dongyangguang, Hanwha, Haiguang Information, Wangsu Technology, and others, indicating a broad spectrum of potential investment opportunities [4][44].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 12 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 70.00 | 港元 91.00↓ | +30.0% | | | 中芯国际 (981 HK) | | | | | | 存储器涨价对需求影响或相对可控；维持买入 王大卫, PhD, CFA Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1867 童钰枫 Carrie.Tong@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1804 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万美元) | 8,030 | 9,327 | 10,685 | 12,357 | 14,060 | | 同比增长 (%) | 27.0 | 16.2 | 14.6 | 15.6 | 13.8 | | 净利润 (百万美元) | 493 | 68 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Chip Leader ETF (516640), which opened down by 0.67% at 1.179 yuan on February 13 [1] - The major holdings of the Chip Leader ETF include companies such as Cambricon, SMIC, and Haiguang Information, with varying performance; for instance, Cambricon fell by 1.12%, while Northern Huachuang rose by 1.00% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Chip Industry Index return, managed by Fortune Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 18.79% since its inception on August 19, 2021, and a recent one-month return of -0.29% [1]

芯片ETF广发（159801）业绩比较基准为同期国证半导体芯片指数收益率，管理人为广发基金管理有限 公司，基金经理为曹世宇，成立（2020-01-20）以来回报为91.88%，近一个月回报为0.16%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月13日，芯片ETF广发（159801）开盘跌0.63%，报0.953元。芯片ETF广发（159801）重仓股方面，中 芯国际开盘跌0.30%，海光信息跌0.89%，寒武纪跌1.12%，北方华创涨1.00%，兆易创新涨0.00%，中微 公司跌0.63%，澜起科技跌0.78%，豪威集团跌0.42%，拓荆科技跌0.34%，长电科技跌1.35%。 ...