证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2026 年 2 月 13 日 中银晨会聚焦-20260213 (8621)20328310 jun.wang_sh@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300511070001 2 月金股组合 股票代码 股票名称 0119.HK 保利置业集团 000099.SZ 中信海直 601111.SH 中国国航 600352.SH 浙江龙盛 002409.SZ 雅克科技 603806.SH 福斯特 300760.SZ 迈瑞医疗 600519.SH 贵州茅台 000524.SZ 岭南控股 603986.SH 兆易创新 688123.SH 聚辰股份 ■重点关注 ◼ 【房地产】2026 年房地产行业展望—2026 年房地产市场"前低后高"；全 年板块或迎来两大拐点*夏亦丰 许佳璐 2026 年全年来看，地产板块出现收益的机会较大，今年建议关注及配 置。从投资主线来说，部分房企在 2025 年计提减值相对充分，2026、2027 年减值压力减轻，在此变化之下有反转可能性；部分持有性商业地产公 司已经提前布局新业态、新模式、新场景，更能把握新消费时代下的机 遇。 现阶段我们建议关 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance in the duty-free sector, with Zhu Mian Group hitting the daily limit, China Duty Free rising over 5%, and Wangfujing and Haixia shares increasing by over 2% [1] Group 2 - Zhu Mian Group's stock rose by 9.96%, with a total market capitalization of 15.6 billion and a year-to-date increase of 21.59% [2] - China Duty Free's stock increased by 5.52%, with a total market capitalization of 201.6 billion and a year-to-date increase of 3.06% [2] - Wangfujing's stock rose by 2.69%, with a total market capitalization of 16.7 billion and a year-to-date decrease of 4.19% [2] - Haixia shares increased by 2.29%, with a total market capitalization of 23.9 billion and a year-to-date decrease of 12.00% [2] - Hainan Development's stock rose by 1.94%, with a total market capitalization of 14.2 billion and a year-to-date decrease of 29.45% [2] - Southern Airlines' stock increased by 1.82%, with a total market capitalization of 151.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 4.49% [2] - Lingnan Holdings' stock rose by 1.34%, with a total market capitalization of 8.632 billion and a year-to-date increase of 7.42% [2]

Group 1 - The duty-free shop sector experienced a significant rise, with Zhujiang Duty-Free Group hitting the daily limit [2] - Other companies such as China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing, Hainan Development, and Lingnan Holdings also saw increases in their stock prices [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the contradiction faced during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, where carbon reduction pressures are increasing while the growth rate of new energy installations is slowing down. The introduction of a national capacity price policy is expected to open up space for new energy installations and support high-yield investment options for power companies during the "14th Five-Year Plan" investment intensity [5][6][9]. Group 1: Energy Storage Industry - The national capacity price policy, issued on January 30, 2026, aims to establish a mechanism that balances power supply stability, green energy transformation, and efficient resource allocation. This policy is expected to support the development of adjustable power sources and enhance the installation of new energy [7][9]. - The report estimates that the demand for energy storage will show a high growth trend, with new energy storage installations expected to reach 66.43 GW and 189.48 GWh in 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 52% and 73% respectively [8][9]. - The capacity price policy is seen as the final piece needed for energy storage development, potentially increasing project returns from approximately 6.5% to over 8% under current subsidy conditions. This is expected to stimulate investment interest from state-owned enterprises in new energy storage projects [8][9]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in leading companies involved in energy storage integration and upstream battery cells, recommending firms such as Sungrow Power Supply, Trina Solar, LONGi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, CATL, and Eve Energy. It also advises monitoring companies like Haisum, Sungrow Electric, Canadian Solar, and Penghui Energy [9].

Group 1 - The market is expected to enter a medium to long-term consolidation phase after a short-term momentum decline [10] - The Shanghai government has initiated a program to purchase second-hand housing for affordable rental housing projects, targeting new citizens, young people, and graduates [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved a new national standard for automotive door handles, set to be implemented in 2027, addressing safety and usability issues [5] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have released guidelines for the construction of a low-altitude economy standard system, aiming for over 300 standards by 2030 [3] - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a temporary method for long-term asset input tax deduction, allowing full deduction for mixed-use assets upon purchase [4] - The stock of Guokai Military Industry has experienced significant price fluctuations, with a recent announcement clarifying that its commercial aerospace projects are still in the R&D phase and have minimal impact on revenue [7]

Strategy Overview - The core strategy indicates that Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman suggests a hawkish policy stance, advocating for balance sheet reduction and cautious interest rate cuts, which may reverse market expectations for continued liquidity easing and strengthen the dollar, leading to a global tightening of dollar liquidity expectations and asset price reassessment [4][2] - In the short term, after a strong spring rally, the market may enter a rhythm adjustment period due to proactive policy guidance and increased overseas disturbances, presenting rotation opportunities for previously stagnant sectors [4][2] Real Estate Sector: Poly Real Estate Group - The company experienced a 48.1% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions, with a settlement area of 814,000 square meters, up 20.8% year-on-year, and a settlement amount of 17.37 billion yuan, up 52.5% year-on-year [8] - Despite revenue growth, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.3%, primarily due to a negative investment income of 950 million yuan and an increase in minority shareholder losses [8] - The company’s gross margin improved to 17.5%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 1.3%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [8][9] - The company’s debt structure improved, with interest-bearing debt down 8.6% year-on-year to 68.2 billion yuan, and the average financing cost decreased by 48 basis points to 2.90% [9] - The company’s sales ranking improved to 15th in the industry, with a sales amount of 29.5 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, despite a 13.5% year-on-year decline [10] Transportation Sector: CITIC Offshore Helicopter - CITIC Offshore Helicopter is a leading player in China's general aviation sector, operating the largest civil helicopter fleet in Asia with 84 advanced model helicopters [13] - The company has a strong revenue stream from offshore oil services, with nearly 70% of its revenue derived from this segment, and maintains a market share of over 60% in the offshore helicopter service market [14] - The general aviation market in China is expected to grow steadily, supported by policy guidance, with the number of general airports reaching 475 and the number of general aviation enterprises reaching 760 by 2024 [14] Transportation Sector: Air China - Air China is the only flag carrier in China, with passenger transport services accounting for nearly 91% of total revenue in 2024 [16] - The company reported a revenue of 166.7 billion yuan in 2024, up 18.14% year-on-year, with a sales gross margin of 5.11% [16] - The domestic passenger transport volume reached 730 million in 2024, a 17.86% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [17] Chemical Sector: Zhejiang Longsheng - The company reported a 6.47% year-on-year decline in revenue to 6.505 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 29.80%, up 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [19][20] - The dye business saw a slight revenue decline of 3.17% to 3.632 billion yuan, but the gross margin improved by 4.40 percentage points to 34.17% [19] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to maintain stable development amid industry challenges [19] Chemical Sector: Yake Technology - The company achieved a revenue growth of 15.37% in the electronic materials segment, with a total revenue of 2.573 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [24] - The company is actively developing new technologies and products in the LNG and electronic materials sectors, with a focus on semiconductor chemical materials [23] New Energy Sector: Foster - Foster is a leading player in the photovoltaic encapsulation materials market, maintaining a market share of around 50% [27] - The company is exploring new solutions for space environment applications, leveraging its existing technology in photovoltaic materials [28] Medical Sector: Mindray Medical - The company faced revenue pressure in the first half of 2025, with a 23.77% year-on-year decline in Q2 revenue to 8.506 billion yuan [29] - International business revenue increased by 5.39%, accounting for about 50% of total revenue, indicating a growing presence in the global market [30] - The company is focusing on building a digital healthcare ecosystem through the integration of devices, IT, and AI technologies [31] Food and Beverage Sector: Kweichow Moutai - The company is navigating a challenging environment in the liquor industry, focusing on quality and long-term value rather than short-term performance metrics [33] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 39.06 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 91.3% [34] Social Services Sector: Lingnan Holdings - The company achieved a revenue of 2.09 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 8.52% year-on-year, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 24.39% [36] - The company is expanding its travel agency and hotel management services, with a focus on enhancing its operational capabilities [38] Electronics Sector: Zhaoyi Innovation - The company expects a revenue of approximately 9.203 billion yuan in 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase, driven by demand from AI computing and the storage industry [39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy benefits in the service consumption sector, emphasizing the importance of optimizing and expanding service supply to foster new growth points in service consumption. The government's plan includes 12 measures across key and potential areas, aiming to enhance service quality and support economic development [1][3]. - The focus on supply-side structural reforms is expected to stimulate both short-term and long-term consumer demand, promoting a virtuous cycle of employment, income, and consumption, thereby providing long-term support for economic growth [3][7]. - Key areas of focus include transportation, domestic services, cultural tourism, and sports events, with potential areas such as performance services and experiential consumption also highlighted for their growth potential [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Support Areas - The report outlines three main policy support areas with twelve specific measures, including: 1. Transportation services aimed at integrating tourism and enhancing service quality [7]. 2. Domestic services focusing on innovation and skill training [7]. 3. Cultural tourism services that encourage infrastructure development and enhance consumer experiences [7]. Potential Growth Areas - The report identifies potential growth areas such as performance services, sports events, and experiential consumption, which are expected to drive demand in related sectors like accommodation and dining [3][7]. Financial and Structural Support - The report emphasizes the need for a robust support system, including the establishment of standards, credit building, and financial backing to ensure the stable development of service consumption [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - Lingnan Holdings has announced a profit forecast for the year 2025, indicating a significant decline in net profit attributed to shareholders, expected to be between 70 million to 75 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 50.05% to 53.38% [1] Group 1 - Lingnan Holdings projects a net profit of 70 million to 75 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025 [1] - The anticipated profit decline is substantial, with a decrease of 50.05% to 53.38% compared to the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lingnan Holdings (000524) is expected to report a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, with projections indicating a decrease of 50.05% to 53.38% compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is estimated to be between 70 million to 75 million yuan [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 60.5 million to 66.5 million yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05% to 9.97% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lingnan Holdings expects a significant decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, forecasting a decline of 50.05% to 53.38% compared to the previous year, primarily due to the absence of non-recurring gains from the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated to be between 70 million and 75 million yuan [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains is forecasted to be between 60.5 million and 66.5 million yuan, indicating a slight increase of 0.05% to 9.97% year-on-year [1] Reasons for Performance Changes - The decline in net profit is attributed to the lack of non-recurring income, specifically the cash dividends received from Guangzhou World Grandview Co., Ltd. amounting to 76.0668 million yuan in the previous year [1] - Despite the overall decline in net profit, the company is experiencing a positive operational trend, focusing on expanding business, enhancing management, and fostering innovation [1] Business Segments - The hotel business is focusing on brand expansion and innovative business models, enhancing market influence through a "North-South Coordination" strategy [1] - The restaurant segment is innovating marketing models and integrating business formats, with strong performance in seasonal food sales and restaurant innovations [1] - The travel agency business is capitalizing on favorable policies to meet rising market demands in holiday tourism, sports tourism, and other segments, achieving growth in both revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Government Support - The company plans to include various government subsidies received from January to December 2025 in non-recurring gains, estimating an impact of approximately 9.2 million yuan on total profit [1]