广发证券股份有限公司 2026 年面向专业投资者公开发行 短期公司债券（第二期）信用评级报告 中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司 | 编号: CCXI-20260283D-01 广发证券股份有限公司 2026 年面向专业投资者公开发行 短期公司债券（第二期）信用评级报告 声 明 跟踪评级安排 中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司 2026 年 1 月 29 日 2 本次评级为委托评级，中诚信国际及其评估人员与评级委托方、评级对象不存在任何其他影响本次评级行为独立、 客观、公正的关联关系。 本次评级依据评级对象提供或已经正式对外公布的信息，以及其他根据监管规定收集的信息，中诚信国际按照相关 性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行审慎分析，但中诚信国际对于相关信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准 确性不作任何保证。 中诚信国际及项目人员履行了尽职调查和诚信义务，有充分理由保证本次评级遵循了真实、客观、公正的原则。 评级报告的评级结论是中诚信国际依据合理的内部信用评级标准和方法、评级程序做出的独立判断，未受评级委托 方、评级对象和其他第三方的干预和影响。 本评级报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意 ...

债券代码：524361 债券简称：25 广发 D8 广发证券股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行短期公司债券（第六期） 兑付兑息及摘牌公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 特别提示： 广发证券股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行短期公司债券（第 六期）（债券简称："25 广发 D8"，债券代码：524361，以下简称"本期债券"） 将于 2026 年 2 月 5 日支付 2025 年 7 月 11 日至 2026 年 2 月 4 日期间的利息及本 期债券的本金。为确保本次兑付兑息工作的顺利进行，现将有关事宜公告如下： 一、本期债券基本情况 1、债券名称：广发证券股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行短期 公司债券（第六期） 2、债券简称及代码：本期债券简称为"25 广发 D8"，债券代码为"524361"。 3、债券发行批准机关及文号：中国证券监督管理委员会证监许可〔2025〕 818 号文。 4、发行期限、规模和利率：本期债券发行期限为 209 天，发行规模为 30 亿元，票面利率为 1.58%。 5、起息日： ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 廣發証券股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月3日 | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 000776 | 說明 | 廣發証券A股 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,904,049,311 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 5,904,049,311 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,904,049,311 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 5,904,049,311 | FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Insights - The equity market is expected to perform well, with a projected net profit growth of 50% year-on-year for 2025, and a 16% growth in 2026 from a high base [1][30] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds is anticipated to reach 19.814 trillion yuan in 2025, representing a 67% year-on-year increase [1][9] - The report highlights a significant recovery in IPO and refinancing activities, with IPO fundraising expected to grow by 96% in 2025 [1][14] - The bond issuance scale is expected to increase steadily, with a 13% year-on-year growth in 2025 [1][19] - The report emphasizes the low valuation of brokerage stocks and the potential for valuation recovery, particularly for large brokerages [1][24] Summary by Sections 1. Equity Market Performance - The average daily trading volume of stock funds is projected at 19.814 trillion yuan, a 67% increase year-on-year [1][9] - The number of new accounts opened in the Shanghai market is expected to average 2.5 million per month, an 8% increase from 2024 [1][9] - The financing balance is projected to reach 2.5242 trillion yuan, a 36% increase year-on-year [1][12] - The IPO market is expected to see 116 IPOs raising 131.8 billion yuan, a 96% increase year-on-year [1][14] - The refinancing market is expected to recover significantly, with a total of 950.9 billion yuan raised, a 326% increase [1][18] 2. Profit Forecast for 2025 - The report forecasts a 50% year-on-year increase in net profit for listed brokerages in 2025, with a 16% increase in Q4 [1][30] - The total revenue for the industry is expected to grow by 21% year-on-year [1][30] 3. 2026 Outlook - The report anticipates a 16% year-on-year increase in net profit for the industry in 2026, based on high baseline assumptions [1][37] - The growth in brokerage income from various segments is expected, including a 25% increase in brokerage business revenue [1][37] 4. Valuation and Recommendations - The report notes that the current valuation of brokerages is relatively low, with the CITIC Securities II index at 1.43x PB, indicating potential for valuation recovery [1][24] - Key recommendations include major brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guotai Junan [1][24]

2月3日，广发证券跌1.29%，截至发稿，报21.44元/股，成交15.82亿元，换手率1.26%，总市值1677.65 亿元。广发证券股价已经连续3天下跌，区间累计跌幅6.42%。 资料显示，广发证券股份有限公司位于广东省广州市天河区马场路26号广发证券大厦，成立日期1994年 1月21日，上市日期1997年6月11日，公司主营业务涉及投资银行业务、财富管理业务、交易及机构业务 和投资管理业务。主营业务收入构成为：财富管理业务40.08%，交易及机构业务32.27%，投资管理业 务24.97%，投资银行业务2.14%，其他0.54%。 从广发证券十大流通股东角度 数据显示，华泰柏瑞基金旗下1只基金位居广发证券十大流通股东。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）三 季度减持240.35万股，持有股数5028.11万股，占流通股的比例为0.66%。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约 1407.87万元。连续3天下跌期间浮亏损失7391.33万元。 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）成立日期2012年5月4日，最新规模4222.58亿。今年以来亏损0.43%， 同类排名4554/5562；近一年收益23.77%，同 ...

Group 1 - The seed industry is currently in a destocking phase, with overall inventory levels high, reaching over 12 billion yuan in Q3 2025, the highest since 2015 [1] - The area for seed production in 2025 is projected to be 3.85 million acres, a 10% decrease year-on-year, with production expected to be 1.527 billion kilograms, also down 10% [1] - The net profit for listed seed companies, excluding non-recurring gains, is expected to be close to -1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, indicating significant losses [1] Group 2 - The newly revised Plant Variety Protection Regulations in April 2025 aim to enhance variety rights protection and encourage breeding innovation, with a notable decrease in the number of corn varieties approved [2] - A total of 1,564 crop varieties were approved in the national review for 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, but with a significant reduction in corn varieties [2] Group 3 - The number of high-quality, disease-resistant rice varieties has been steadily increasing, with 53 new varieties expected by 2025, showing significant improvements in yield and disease resistance [3] - New rice varieties from Longping High-Tech have demonstrated over 5% yield increase in trials, with improved disease resistance and quality [3] Group 4 - The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025 corn spring planting technical guidelines emphasize the importance of reasonable planting density, with some varieties suitable for densities of 6,500 to 7,000 plants per acre [4] - The average yield of newly approved corn varieties has surpassed 800 kilograms per acre, a 1.7% increase year-on-year, with 61 varieties in the Northwest ecological zone exceeding 1,000 kilograms per acre [4]

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，AI的Memory时刻，AI记忆成为支撑上下文连续性、个性化 与历史信息复用的底层能力，持续扩展模型能力边界，有望促进AI Agent等应用加速落地。AI记忆的价 值正从"费用项"转变为"资产项"，相关上游基础设施价值量、重要性将不断提升。建议关注产业链核心 受益标的。 广发证券主要观点如下： 英伟达推出AI推理上下文存储平台ICMS 随用户多轮会话与Agent持续运行带来的KVCache不断累积，系统对可长期留存并按需回填的分层 KVCache形成刚性需求，推动上下文从HBM外溢至DRAM、SSD等分层介质承接。为此，NVIDIA推出 上下文记忆存储架构ICMS，面向Agent与多轮推理场景提供"长期上下文记忆层"，一方面承载更大规模 KVCache，另一方面以低延迟将历史KVCache回填到多GPU节点的多回合推理会话;其KV访问模式呈现 低TTFT约束下的高并发、高吞吐随机读取。 ICMS平台对SSD使用效果好 经济性与扩展性方面，SSD单位成本显著低于GPU内存，且可按TB、PB容量扩展，是长期上下文的天 然承载介质。可行性方面，根据《Context Memor ...

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，新型储能经济性改善，火电盈利稳定性提升，抽蓄稳中提 质。2026年我国新型储能需求有望保持高景气增长，有望带动储能产业链各环节盈利的改善，推荐储能 电池及材料龙头企业。具有选址、运营优势的龙头集成企业有望实现储能电站更高收益率并提高市占 率。电力交易能力有望成为储能电站运营的核心壁垒。 近年来，我国在电力市场化改革过程中持续强化对容量电价机制建设的政策引导。2026年1月30日，国 家发展改革委、国家能源局发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》(发改价格〔2026〕114号)， 强调：分类完善煤电、天然气发电、抽水蓄能、新型储能容量电价机制，优化电力市场机制，通过"保 底工资"的制度性安排，推动相关电源顶峰时发电保供，有力促进新能源消纳利用;容量电价新政亦首次 明确可靠容量补偿标准确定原则，有望从"分类补偿"有序扩展至"同工同酬"，推动各类调节性电源的公 平竞争。此外，多省区率先发布落地政策：内蒙古与新疆实行储能放电量补偿，较难动态反映容量供 需;河北容量补偿未建立容量补偿设定标准，本质为固定式补偿;甘肃、青海与宁夏三地在容量电费的计 算方法上统一采用了"有效容量×容 ...

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，2025年中国城镇宠物(犬猫)消费市场规模约3126亿元，同比 2024年增长4%。其中猫消费市场增速高于犬消费市场增速，分别为5%与3%。2025年宠物行业大盘年增 速4%，新宠物主与宠均消费提升驱动行业持续增长。复盘来看，品类与渠道红利驱动格局变化。当前 时点，重视功能性食品的产品风口机会，看好具备研发实力与销售能力的龙头公司推动新品类渗透率提 升，引领产业趋势。 品类创新 烘焙粮竞争日趋激烈，功能性食品或成为增长蓝海。根据宠物行业白皮书，消费者的烘焙粮与冻干添加 粮的消费偏好已超越了膨化粮，鲜粮与主食湿粮的消费偏好近年有所提升。当前烘焙粮产品供应较为饱 和，产品效率开始走低。具备功效的主粮产品或成为行业新的产品趋势。功能性宠物食品并非新事物， 处方粮是最典型的功能性产品，功能粮即定位于具备一定处方粮功效但供健康宠物日常使用的产品。目 前的产品趋势来看，减肥、泌尿、肠胃、美毛与老年专用是最核心的5种功能性主粮。进口品牌(皇家、 希尔斯、冠能)在处方粮主粮类产品布局较早，已有较为成熟的产品序列，国内品牌(东方澳龙)逐步发 力，国产品牌在宠物保健品领域已有全面布局，这一 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Macro Indicator Trend Model - **Model Name**: Macro Indicator Trend Model - **Construction Idea**: Establish the relationship between macro indicators and asset performance by analyzing the trend of macro indicators and their impact on monthly asset returns[17][18] - **Construction Process**: - Use monthly moving averages of macro indicators to classify them into upward or downward trends - Apply T-test to determine whether the distribution of monthly returns of assets differs significantly under upward and downward trends - Formula: $ t = \frac{\overline{R_1} - \overline{R_2}}{\sqrt{\frac{(n_1-1)S_1^2 + (n_2-1)S_2^2}{n_1+n_2-2}(\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2})}} \sim t_{n_1+n_2-2} $ - $\overline{R_1}$ and $\overline{R_2}$: Average monthly returns under upward and downward trends - $S_1$ and $S_2$: Standard deviations of monthly returns under upward and downward trends - $n_1$ and $n_2$: Number of months under upward and downward trends[17][18] - **Evaluation**: Effectively identifies macro indicators with significant impacts on asset returns[17][18] Technical Perspective Model - **Model Name**: Technical Perspective Model - **Construction Idea**: Evaluate asset trends, valuation, and fund flows using historical data and specific calculation methods[22][23][25] - **Construction Process**: - **Trend**: Use closing prices or LLT indicators to calculate trend indicators. Assign +1 for upward trends and -1 for downward trends[22] - **Valuation**: Calculate equity risk premium (ERP) as the reciprocal of PE(TTM) minus the 10-year government bond yield. Define historical 5-year percentile as: $ (Current ERP - Historical 5-year ERP Minimum) / (Historical 5-year ERP Maximum - Historical 5-year ERP Minimum) $ Assign scores based on percentile levels: +2 for >90%, +1 for 70%-90%, 0 for 30%-70%, -1 for 10%-30%, -2 for <10%[23][25] - **Fund Flows**: Calculate monthly active net inflows for indices and assess marginal changes. Assign +1 for positive changes and -1 for negative changes[26] - **Evaluation**: Provides a comprehensive view of asset trends, valuation, and fund flows[22][23][25] Fixed Proportion + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination Model - **Model Name**: Fixed Proportion + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination Model - **Construction Idea**: Adjust asset weights based on macro and technical indicators while maintaining a fixed proportion baseline[36][40] - **Construction Process**: - Set baseline weights for equity, bonds, commodities, and currency assets - Adjust weights monthly based on macro and technical indicator signals[36][40] - **Evaluation**: Balances fixed proportion allocation with dynamic adjustments for improved performance[36][40] Controlled Volatility + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination Model - **Model Name**: Controlled Volatility + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination Model - **Construction Idea**: Limit annualized volatility to 6% while dynamically adjusting weights based on macro and technical indicators[46][50] - **Construction Process**: - Use risk parity as the baseline weight - Adjust weights monthly based on macro and technical indicator signals[46][50] - **Evaluation**: Reduces volatility while maintaining competitive returns[46][50] Equity Style Rotation Models - **Model Name**: Equity Style Rotation Models (Large/Small Cap and Growth/Value) - **Construction Idea**: Adjust weights between equity styles based on macro and technical indicators[57][58] - **Construction Process**: - Set baseline weights for large/small cap and growth/value styles - Adjust weights monthly based on macro and technical indicator signals[57][58] - **Evaluation**: Captures style rotation opportunities for enhanced returns[57][58] --- Model Backtesting Results Macro Indicator Trend Model - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly provided - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly provided - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly provided Technical Perspective Model - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly provided - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly provided - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly provided Fixed Proportion + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination Model - **Annualized Return**: 10.20%[40] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 9.27%[40] - **Annualized Volatility**: 6.14%[40] Controlled Volatility + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination Model - **Annualized Return**: 10.46%[50] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 7.37%[50] - **Annualized Volatility**: 5.54%[50] Large/Small Cap Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 14.30%[61] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 49.10%[61] - **Annualized Volatility**: 22.30%[61] Growth/Value Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 14.43%[68] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 45.18%[68] - **Annualized Volatility**: 21.57%[68]