（文章来源：第一财经） 广州珠江新城一块大型综合用地马场地块2月25日上午正式出让，起拍价高达186亿元，仅次于2009年出 让的亚运城地块。由于地块位置核心、体量大备受关注。目前参与竞买的8家企业分别为越秀、保利、 华润、招商、珠实、广州地铁、广州建筑、广州城投。由于围观人数达数十万人，土拍系统多次崩溃。 ...

华源证券研判，我国房地产调整的长度与深度已相对充分，复盘全球主要经济体房地产危机，平均跌幅 35%、调整时间6年，当前实际调整幅度与持续时间均已接近历史均值；叠加中央高频强调"好房子"建 设、REITs试点加速落地、保障性住房金融支持政策扩围等新机制逐步成型，行业有望进入调整尾声阶 段。 中银证券指出，"政策拐点"需要提前布局，"基本面拐点"机会持续时间会更长，持续性的修复仍要待价 格止跌回稳。"政策拐点"可能会体现在房地产供需两端的政策积极性提升，"基本面拐点"主要指需求好 转的明朗度，主要体现在二手房价格的降幅收窄。从投资主线来说，部分房企在2025年计提减值相对充 分，2026、2027年减值压力减轻，在此变化之下有反转可能性；部分持有性商业地产公司已经提前布局 新业态、新模式、新场景，更能把握新消费时代下的机遇。 截至2026年2月25日 09:41，房地产ETF(512200)上涨2.15%，成交6902.58万元。跟踪指数中证全指房地 产指数成分股光明地产上涨10.07%，城投控股上涨9.96%，我爱我家上涨4.56%，滨江集团，华联控股 等个股跟涨。 上周为春节假期，受此影响市场整体成交回落。但 ...

| 各线 | 城市 | 2026春节假期 (2.15-2.23) 新建商品住宅 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 合计成交面积(万平米) | | 使之道 | | 1.36 | | 北京 | | 0.23 | | 深圳 | | 0.22RE15 | | 广州 | | 0.14 | | 温州 | | 1.08 | | 济南 | | 1.01 FIS | | 武汉 | | 中指 0.89 | | 成都 | | 0.54 | | 宁波 | | 0.49 | | 线 | 苏州 | 0.27 | | 福州 | | 0.27 | | 青岛 | | 0.15 | | 南宁 | | 0.12 REIS | | 西宁 | | 0.06 | | 甫田 | | 0.82 | | 北京 | | 0.81 | | 梅州 | | 0.81REID | | 四线 | 韶关 | 0.21 | | 佛山 | | 0.17 | | 清远 | | 0.17 | | 泰安 | | 中指 0.15 | | 合计 12 | | 10.0 | 中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶指出，春节期间部分房企积极"抢跑"，多地项目"春节不打烊"， ...

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《上海三区启动住房以旧换新，推动 新房去库存 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.4 行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 《2025Q4 公募基金延续低配，持股集 中度进一步提升—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.27 《销售延续调整态势，期待政策显效 与市场筑底 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.19 楼市延续筑底行情，政策宽松下布局时点已至 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 春节市场成交量：一手房网签偏弱，二手房基本持平 一手房方面，2026 年除夕前一周 40 城市合计一手房成交 133.68 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][4][60] Core Insights - The report indicates that new home sales during the Spring Festival period saw a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a total of 9.3 million square meters sold across 16 major cities [3][14] - The report highlights a significant recovery in the real estate market, with February sales in 34 cities showing an 88.5% year-on-year increase compared to January [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including measures to address local government debt risks and promote housing supply [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities decreased by 1.1% week-on-week before the Spring Festival, with a total of 192.3 million square meters sold [4][5] - In February, new home sales in 34 cities increased by 88.5% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities showing a 96.8% increase [9][10] - The report notes that the inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities was 88.7 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week [60] Policy News - The report mentions that the publication "Qiushi" reiterated the need to stabilize the real estate market, with 12 commercial real estate REITs submitted for approval [3][4] - Various local governments have introduced new policies to stabilize the real estate market, including measures to optimize housing supply and activate existing stock [3][4] Company Dynamics - The report tracks sales data from major real estate companies, noting that China Jinmao and China Resources Land reported strong sales figures in January [3][4] - The report highlights the performance of the real estate sector, with the SW Real Estate Index declining by 0.69% compared to a 0.36% increase in the CSI 300 Index [3][4] Investment Analysis - The report recommends investing in high-quality real estate companies and commercial properties, citing an expected recovery in profitability for quality firms as the market stabilizes [3][4] - Specific recommendations include companies such as Jianfa International, Binhai Group, and China Jinmao for quality real estate, and New City Holdings and China Resources Land for commercial real estate [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that new home sales during the Spring Festival period saw a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a total of 9.3 million square meters sold across 16 major cities [3][13]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is improving, driven by recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing local government debt risks [3]. - The report emphasizes that the fundamental bottom of the real estate sector is approaching, with expectations for quality companies to recover profits more quickly and flexibly [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities during the week before the Spring Festival totaled 192.3 million square meters, a decrease of 1.1% week-on-week, but an increase of 56.6% compared to the average weekly sales this year [4]. - In February, new home sales in 34 cities increased by 88.5% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities showing a 96.8% increase [9]. - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities was reported at 8,870.4 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week [54]. 2. Policy News - The report notes that the government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with various local policies being introduced to optimize housing supply and manage existing stock [3]. - Specific measures include the promotion of REITs in commercial real estate, with 12 applications submitted recently [3]. 3. Company Dynamics - Sales data for major real estate companies in January showed mixed results, with China Jinmao reporting a 13.6% increase in sales, while other companies like Poly Developments saw a 13.3% decrease [3]. - The report highlights the performance of the property management sector, which has shown resilience compared to the broader market [3]. 4. Market Performance - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.69%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 0.36% [3]. - The report suggests that the current valuation levels for quality real estate companies are at historical lows, making them attractive for investment [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1] Core Insights - New home sales in January showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, while second-hand home sales turned positive year-on-year [1][21] - The central bank has released favorable policies, including lowering the re-lending rate and reducing the down payment ratio for commercial properties [1][4] New Home Sales - In January, the new home sales area in 40 cities decreased by 42.3% month-on-month and by 22.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 10.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][14] - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of 14.0%, while second-tier cities experienced an 18.1% decline, and third and fourth-tier cities had a 41.1% decline [15][20] Second-Hand Home Sales - The second-hand home sales area in 18 cities decreased by 2.0% month-on-month but increased by 9.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate improving by 41.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [21][25] - All city tiers showed positive year-on-year growth in second-hand home sales, with first-tier cities growing by 15.0% year-on-year [21][30] Inventory and Absorption - As of the end of January, the new home inventory area in 12 cities was 112.91 million square meters, down 0.4% month-on-month and down 6.3% year-on-year, with an overall absorption cycle of 18.1 months [28][29] - The absorption cycle for first-tier cities increased by 4.3 months year-on-year, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decrease of 8.2 months [28] Land Market - The land market in January saw a transaction area decrease of 76.5% month-on-month and a 20.2% year-on-year decline, with an average land premium rate of 2.87% [1][12] - The average land price per square meter decreased by 36.8% month-on-month and by 20.9% year-on-year [13] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 49.5% year-on-year decline in land acquisition amounts, with a land acquisition intensity of 32% [1][12] - The financing scale for the real estate industry in January was 39.6 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year but up 7% month-on-month [1][14] Policy Developments - The central bank's policy changes include lowering the re-lending rate to 1.25% and reducing the minimum down payment ratio for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [1][4] - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has been submitted for approval, with a total expected fundraising of 31.47 billion yuan [1][4] Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the CSI 300 index in January, with an absolute return of 4.3% and a relative return of 2.7% [1][12] - The report anticipates two potential turning points in 2026: a policy turning point around the end of Q1 and a fundamental turning point around Q4 [1][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate industry is undergoing a profound restructuring of its valuation system, where "certainty" has replaced "growth" as the primary valuation metric, emphasizing timely delivery, stable quality, and sustainable service [1][14]. Market Differentiation: Certainty as the Only Hard Currency - In 2025, the differentiation in the Xi'an real estate market is unprecedented, with some projects struggling to attract buyers despite price cuts, while others sell out at listed prices [3]. - The success of China Merchants Shekou in Xi'an is attributed to its transition from "uncertainty" to "certainty," characterized by four dimensions: delivery certainty, quality certainty, price certainty, and service certainty [3][4]. Delivery Certainty - China Merchants Shekou has achieved an average delivery ahead of schedule by 3-6 months, with a delivery satisfaction rate of 98%, positioning itself in a new market segment where timely delivery is critical [3]. Quality Certainty - The quality of delivery remains consistently high across various aspects, ensuring that the actual product matches the demonstration units seen by potential buyers [3]. Price Certainty - The company maintains transparent pricing with a one-price policy, avoiding tactics like low initial pricing or commission incentives, which helps sustain higher market value for its properties [3]. Service Certainty - The ongoing operation of the "Zhaolinh U Community" ensures that the service quality received by homeowners aligns closely with the standards promised at the time of signing [4]. Systematic Capability Over Single Product Success - The sales success of China Merchants Shekou in Xi'an is not due to a single project but rather a systematic capability that spans multiple projects, price ranges, and customer segments [7][9]. - The company has demonstrated its ability to deliver products and services that meet or exceed expectations across various market conditions [9]. Second-Hand Premium: Value Closure - The true test of product strength lies in the second-hand market, where properties from China Merchants Shekou have consistently sold for over 15% more than competing products, indicating sustained value [11]. - The brand's long-standing reputation and consistent quality ensure that properties continue to appreciate over time, maintaining their competitive edge [12]. Conclusion: The Value of Certainty - The consensus among Xi'an homebuyers is that "not buying from China Merchants is not an option," reflecting a collective vote for certainty in the market [14]. - The company's 154-year history and extensive experience in Xi'an have established a strong foundation of trust, making certainty the most valuable resource in the current real estate landscape [15].

转自：推广 西安从来不缺房子，缺的是值得珍藏的作品。 当高周转成为行业惯性，当"复制粘贴"成为多数房企的效率法则，招商蛇口西安却用12年、22部作品，走出了一条截然相反的路——不复制、只定制，永远 在创新，永远在迭代。这不是营销话术，而是刻在这家企业基因里的产品信仰。 图片来源：招商蛇口 每一块土地都有自己的使命 2014年，招商蛇口首入西安。彼时行业盛行"产品线"打法，一个爆款户型全国通用，一张图纸飞遍大江南北。招商蛇口西安却选择了更笨的方式：读懂每一 块土地。 在曲江，它读懂盛唐的气韵与低密的矜贵；在高新，它回应科创精英的效率与审美；在浐灞，它预判滨水生活的未来；在奥体，它捕捉城市新中心的澎湃； 在经开，它洞察成熟城区的改善渴求。 22部作品，没有两个完全相同的立面，没有两张复刻的图纸。从建筑语汇到户型逻辑，从园林规制到空间情绪，每一部作品都只为那片土地而生。 这便是招商蛇口西安奉行至今的产品信条——"每一块土地都有自己的使命"。所谓定制，不是标新立异，而是让建筑成为土地最恰当的答案。 图片来源：招商蛇口 永不满足的自我迭代 2.0时代，它开启改善赛道，以精准的产品定位填补市场空白； 3.0时代，它冲击高 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The 2026 real estate market is expected to experience a "front low and back high" trend, with two significant turning points anticipated throughout the year [2] - The overall sales volume and price are projected to face pressure in Q1, with potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 to stabilize the market in Q2 [3][24] - The report emphasizes the need for policy measures to support demand and stabilize investment, particularly focusing on the financial pressures faced by developers [8][19] Sales Forecast - The report forecasts a total sales area of 810 million square meters in 2026, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8% - The average sales price is expected to be 9,144 yuan per square meter, down 4% year-on-year - The total sales amount is projected to be 7.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12% decline compared to the previous year [3][22][21] Development Investment - Real estate development investment is anticipated to reach 6.9 trillion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to 2025 [4][21] - The report indicates that the decline in new construction area is expected to be 18% year-on-year, with a total of 480 million square meters [4][21] Completion Forecast - The report predicts that the completion area will be 490 million square meters in 2026, down 19% year-on-year, continuing the trend of cyclical contraction [5][21] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the main contradiction in the real estate market has shifted from "shrinking transaction volume" to "continuing price declines," particularly affecting the second-hand housing market [9] - It suggests that the market's recovery will depend on effective policy measures and the stabilization of developer financing [8][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. Developers with stable fundamentals and high market share in first and second-tier cities 2. Smaller developers showing significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new operational models in the new consumption era [9][21]