Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 27, 2026 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBenjamin Rosenblum - CFODominic Frederico - President and CEORobert Bailenson - COORobert Tucker - Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate CommunicationsConference Call ParticipantsMarissa Lobo - AnalystThomas McJoynt-Griffith - AnalystOperatorGood morning, and welcome to the Assured Guaranty Ltd. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Becky, and I will be th ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - At year-end 2025, the company achieved new per-share highs for adjusted book value at $186.43, adjusted operating shareholders' equity at $126.78, and shareholders' equity at $125.32 [5] - Adjusted operating income per share increased to $9.08 in 2025 from $7.10 in 2024, representing a 28% increase [19][20] - Fourth quarter 2025 adjusted operating income was $109 million or $2.32 per share, an 83% increase from $66 million or $1.27 per share in the fourth quarter of 2024 [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The present value of new business production (PVP) totaled $286 million in 2025, with significant contributions from all three financial guarantee underwriting groups [5] - The company guaranteed over $27 billion of municipal par, a 16% increase from 2024, and achieved a 15-year high in new issue insured par sold, representing 58% of the market [11] - The U.S. public finance segment originated $206 million in PVP, with a 19% increase in the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. municipal market experienced a second consecutive year of record issuance, driving strong demand for municipal bond insurance [10] - The company saw a 240% year-over-year increase in U.S. public finance secondary insured par written, totaling approximately $2 billion [11] - Non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance originations contributed $80 million in PVP for 2025, with strong performance in the U.K. and European markets [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainable long-term growth and has successfully expanded its U.S. municipal secondary market business [5] - The acquisition of Warwick Re Limited, renamed Assured Life Reinsurance, diversifies revenue sources and leverages the company's strengths in credit and structured finance [8] - The company aims to enhance its investment returns and has seen significant growth in alternative investments, achieving a fair value of over $1 billion by year-end 2025 [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the U.S. public finance market and the potential for continued growth in 2026 [26] - The company remains optimistic about its position in the annuity reinsurance market and is actively pursuing new business opportunities [24] - Management highlighted the resilience of the business model, which has been demonstrated during financial crises and other challenging economic conditions [9] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 12% of its common shares outstanding at the end of 2024, totaling $500 million, and increased its quarterly dividend per share by 12% [6][24] - The alternative investments segment generated a year-over-year increase of 33% in pre-tax adjusted operating income for 2025 [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on issuance in triple B credits and outlook for 2026 - Management noted a positive trend in the fourth quarter and a strong start in the first quarter of 2026, with several transactions already closed in U.S. public finance and infrastructure finance in Europe [26] Question: Outlook on U.K. utilities and Brightline - Management provided an update on U.K. utilities, indicating a focus on Thames as the only problematic exposure, and expressed confidence in the recovery of Brightline due to strong subordination below their position [28][30] Question: Exposure in alternative investments and private credit - Management clarified that while they are invested in the CLO market, they do not have direct exposure to private credit and remain confident in the health of their portfolio [35] Question: Capital allocation between annuity reinsurance and stock buybacks - Management indicated that capital management opportunities, including stock buybacks, will be assessed based on market conditions and opportunities in the life and annuity sector [37]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - At year-end 2025, the company achieved new per-share highs for adjusted book value at $186.43, adjusted operating shareholders' equity at $126.78, and shareholders' equity at $125.32 [5] - Adjusted operating income per share increased to $9.08 in 2025 from $7.10 in 2024, representing a 28% increase [21] - Fourth quarter 2025 adjusted operating income was $109 million or $2.32 per share, an 83% increase from $66 million or $1.27 per share in the fourth quarter of 2024 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The present value of new business production (PVP) totaled $286 million in 2025, with significant contributions from all three financial guarantee underwriting groups [5] - The company guaranteed over $27 billion of municipal par, a 16% increase from 2024, and achieved a 15-year high in new issue municipal par sold, representing 58% of the market [12] - The U.S. public finance segment originated $206 million in PVP, with a 19% increase in the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. municipal market experienced a second consecutive year of record issuance, driving strong demand for municipal bond insurance [11] - Non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance originations contributed $80 million in PVP for 2025, with notable transactions in the U.K. and European Union [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainable long-term growth, having successfully expanded its U.S. municipal secondary market business, which saw a more than tripling in performance compared to the previous year [6] - The acquisition of Warwick Re Limited, renamed Assured Life Reinsurance, diversifies revenue sources and leverages the company's strengths in credit and structured finance [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the U.S. public finance market and infrastructure finance in Europe, anticipating continued strong performance in 2026 [27] - The company highlighted the strength of its underwriting and the successful resolution of previously troubled exposures, which contributed positively to financial results [22] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 12% of its common shares outstanding at the end of 2024, meeting its target of $500 million in share repurchases [6] - A 12% increase in the quarterly dividend per share was announced, marking 14 consecutive years of dividend growth [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on issuance in triple B credits and outlook for 2026 - Management noted a positive trend in the fourth quarter and a strong start in the first quarter of 2026, with several transactions already closed in U.S. public finance and infrastructure finance in Europe [27] Question: Outlook on U.K. utilities and Brightline - Management provided an update on U.K. utilities, indicating an upgrade for Southern Water and focusing on Thames as the only problematic exposure, with active engagement in finding a market-based solution [28] - Regarding Brightline, management expressed confidence in the recovery and highlighted a strong position in the capital stack [30] Question: Exposure in alternative investment portfolio and private credit - Management clarified that while they are invested in the CLO market, they do not take direct exposure to private credit and remain confident in the health of their portfolio [35] Question: Capital allocation between annuity reinsurance and stock buyback - Management indicated that capital management opportunities, including stock buybacks, will be assessed based on market conditions and opportunities in the life and annuity space [36]

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 ____________________________________________________________________________ FORM 10-K ☒ ANNUAL REPORT UNDER SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 Or ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to Commission File Number 001-32141 ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. (Exact name of Registrant as specified in its ...

Equity Investor Presentation December 31, 2025 Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure 2 ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. • This presentation contains information that includes or is based upon forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements give the expectations or forecasts of future events of Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGL) and its subsidiaries (collectively with AGL, Assured Guaranty or the Company). These statements can be ...

Assured Guaranty Ltd. December 31, 2025 Financial Supplement | Table of Contents | Page | | --- | --- | | Selected Financial Highlights | 1 | | Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited) | 3 | | Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited) | 4 | | Selected Financial Highlights GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations | 5 | | Income Components | 8 | | Fixed-Maturity Securities, Short-Term Investments and Cash | 12 | | Investment Portfolio, Cash and CIVs | 13 | | Income from Investment Portfolio ...

Core Viewpoint - Assured Guaranty Ltd. has announced a quarterly dividend increase of 12% from the previous quarter, reflecting the company's strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders [1]. Dividend Announcement - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.38 per common share, up from $0.34 per common share declared on November 5, 2025 [1]. - The dividend is scheduled to be paid on March 20, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 6, 2026 [1]. Company Overview - Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a publicly traded holding company based in Bermuda, listed on the NYSE under the ticker symbol AGO [1]. - The company, through its subsidiaries, provides credit enhancement products [1].

Core Viewpoint - Assured Guaranty (Europe) SA has issued a €175 million debt service reserve guarantee for XpFibre Groupe, marking its second transaction with the company [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The €175 million DSR guarantee replaces a portion of an existing DSR facility provided by various banks [1] - The transaction was completed on December 30, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is showing potential for a bullish breakout due to a recent "golden cross" in its moving averages, indicating a key technical support level has been reached [1][2]. Technical Analysis - AGO's 50-day simple moving average has crossed above its 200-day simple moving average, a pattern known as a "golden cross," which typically signals a bullish trend [1][2]. - A golden cross consists of three stages: a downtrend that bottoms out, a crossover of the shorter moving average above the longer one, and continued upward momentum in stock prices [3]. Performance Metrics - AGO has experienced an 8.9% rally over the past four weeks, suggesting strong momentum [4]. - The company currently holds a 2 (Buy) rating on the Zacks Rank, indicating positive market sentiment [4]. Earnings Outlook - AGO's earnings outlook for the current quarter is positive, with one upward revision in earnings estimates over the past 60 days and no downward revisions [4]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AGO has also increased, further supporting the bullish case for the stock [4][6]. Investment Consideration - Investors are encouraged to monitor AGO for potential gains, given its technical indicators and favorable earnings estimate revisions [6].

Core Insights - Assured Guaranty reported third-quarter 2025 results that significantly exceeded analyst expectations for both earnings and revenue, leading to a 6.3% increase in share price [1][2] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $2.57, surpassing consensus estimates by 67.2% [2] - Revenue for the quarter was $207 million, which was 12.2% higher than anticipated but represented a 23% decline from the same period last year [2] - Book value per share increased by 9% year-over-year to $121.13, indicating long-term capital growth [2] Market Reaction - Shares closed at $86.90, reflecting a 6.7% increase from the previous close [3] - The stock has shown low volatility, with only three moves greater than 5% in the past year, suggesting that the market views this news as significant [4] - Despite being down 2.9% year-to-date, the stock is trading close to its 52-week high of $95.47 [5]