Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted book value per share reached a record high of $181.37, and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share also hit a record of $123.10 at the end of Q3 2025 [5] - Year-to-date adjusted operating income was $6.77 per share, reflecting a 17% increase compared to the same period last year [5] - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2025 was $124 million or $2.57 per share, compared to $130 million or $2.42 per share in Q3 2024 [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial guarantee production in Q3 2025 was $91 million of PVP, a 44% increase from Q3 2024 and a 42% increase from Q2 2025 [5] - U.S. public finance transactions totaled $7.9 billion of par in Q3 2025, up from $5.4 billion in Q3 2024 [8] - Secondary market U.S. public finance generated $32 million of PVP in the first nine months of 2025, compared to $5 million in the same period of 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. municipal bond issuance increased by over $50 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the record issuance in the same period of 2024 [9] - Assured Guaranty insured 63% of the total insured U.S. municipal market par sold in the first nine months of 2025, up from 57% in the same period of 2024 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is looking to expand its insurance businesses into new sectors and markets while diversifying revenue sources for sustainable growth [7] - There is a focus on shorter duration structured finance transactions that allow for quicker capital recycling and better return on equity [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the domestic public finance market returning to normal activity levels after a skewed mix in earlier quarters [35] - The company sees significant growth opportunities in both U.S. public finance and global structured finance, particularly in infrastructure and regulatory capital needs [34][36] Other Important Information - The Board of Directors authorized an additional $100 million in share repurchases, bringing the total authorization to over $330 million [7] - The investment portfolio's performance has been enhanced by alternative investments, achieving an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 13% [7][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes to the investment portfolio and allocation to higher-yielding sectors - Management is focused on optimizing yield while maintaining a safe portfolio with adequate liquidity [23] Question: Issues with Brightline transportation exposure - Management indicated that Brightline is experiencing typical startup growing pains but remains comfortable with their exposure [24] Question: Opportunities in the current data center CapEx cycle - The company is actively evaluating opportunities in data centers and has executed in new areas like liquid natural gas [27] Question: Pipeline for growing written premium into 2026 - Management sees great opportunities across all three financial guarantee lines of business, particularly in U.S. public finance and global structured finance [33][34] Question: Positive developments in Puerto Rico and PREPA exposure - Management emphasized the importance of a deal for recognizing the value of reserves and claims related to PREPA [38]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted book value per share reached a record high of $181.37, and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share also reached a record high of $123.10 at the end of Q3 2025 [5] - Adjusted operating income for the year-to-date was $6.77 per share, an increase of approximately 17% compared to the same period last year [5] - Adjusted operating income in Q3 2025 was $124 million or $2.57 per share, compared to $130 million or $2.42 per share in Q3 2024 [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial guarantee production in Q3 2025 was strong, with $91 million of PVP, which is 44% more than Q3 2024 and 42% more than Q2 2025 [5] - U.S. public finance business produced $152 million of PVP year-to-date, benefiting from record U.S. municipal bond issuance [6] - Secondary market U.S. public finance strategy generated $32 million of PVP in the first nine months of 2025, compared to $5 million in the same period of 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. municipal bond issuance increased by more than $50 billion year-to-date compared to the record issuance during the first nine months of 2024 [9] - Assured Guaranty insured 63% of the total insured U.S. municipal market par sold in the first nine months of 2025, up from 57% in the same period of 2024 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is looking for strategic opportunities to expand its insurance businesses into new sectors and markets, aiming to diversify revenue sources for sustainable growth [7] - The focus on shorter duration structured finance transactions is expected to provide better returns on equity and quicker capital recycling [13][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the ability to produce and the expected production levels going forward, citing a return to normal business mix in Q3 2025 [36] - The company sees great opportunities in U.S. public finance and global structured finance, particularly in infrastructure and regulatory capital needs [35][36] Other Important Information - The investment portfolio's performance has been enhanced by greater use of alternative investments, achieving an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 13% [7][17] - The Board of Directors authorized an additional $100 million for share repurchases, bringing the total authorization to over $330 million [7][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes to the investment portfolio and allocation to higher-yielding sectors - Management indicated that they aim to optimize yield while maintaining a safe portfolio with adequate liquidity [23] Question: Issues with Brightline transportation exposure - Management acknowledged typical growing pains for Brightline but expressed confidence in their exposure due to being in the senior most section of the capital stack [24] Question: Pipeline for growing written premium into 2026 - Management sees great opportunities across all three financial guarantee lines of business, particularly in U.S. public finance and global structured finance [34][36]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted book value per share reached a record high of $181.37, and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share also reached a record high of $123.10 at the end of Q3 2025 [5] - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2025 was $124 million or $2.57 per share, compared to $130 million or $2.42 per share in Q3 2024, reflecting a modest decline [15][18] - Year-to-date adjusted operating income was $6.77 per share, an increase of approximately 17% compared to the same period last year [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial guarantee production in Q3 2025 was strong, with $91 million of PVP, which is 44% more than Q3 2024 and 42% more than Q2 2025 [5][8] - U.S. public finance transactions totaled $7.9 billion of par in Q3 2025, compared to $5.4 billion in Q3 2024, indicating a significant increase in issuance [8][9] - Secondary market U.S. public finance strategy generated $32 million of PVP in the first nine months of 2025, compared to $5 million in the same period of 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. municipal bond issuance increased by more than $50 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with total primary market insured par volume rising 18% [9] - Assured Guaranty insured 63% of the total insured U.S. municipal market par sold in the first nine months of 2025, up from 57% in the same period of 2024 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is looking for strategic opportunities to expand its insurance businesses into new sectors and markets, aiming to diversify revenue sources for sustainable growth [7] - There is a focus on building the subscription finance business, characterized by shorter duration and renewable transactions, which allows for quicker capital recycling [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the pipeline for growth in written premiums into 2026, particularly in U.S. public finance and global structured finance [32][34] - The company is actively evaluating opportunities in data centers and has executed in new areas like liquid natural gas, indicating a proactive approach to market trends [26][34] Other Important Information - The Board of Directors authorized an additional $100 million share repurchase, bringing the total authorization to over $330 million [7][20] - The investment portfolio's performance has been enhanced by alternative investments, which have generated an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 13% [7][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes to the investment portfolio and allocation to higher-yielding sectors - Management indicated that they work with outside investment managers to optimize yield while maintaining a safe portfolio with adequate liquidity [23] Question: Issues with Brightline transportation exposure - Management acknowledged Brightline's growing pains as a startup but expressed confidence in their exposure due to being in the senior most section of the capital stack [24] Question: Opportunities in the current data center CapEx cycle - Management confirmed they are actively evaluating data center opportunities and have executed in new areas like liquid natural gas [26] Question: Pipeline for growth in written premium into 2026 - Management sees great opportunities across all three financial guarantee lines of business, particularly in U.S. public finance and global structured finance [32][34] Question: Positive developments in Puerto Rico and PREPA exposure - Management stated that recognition of value in reserves would require a deal, emphasizing their strong position as a creditor [38]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate as of August 2025 was 4.3%, up from 4.1% at the beginning of the year[393]. - The annual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3.8%, following a decline of 0.6% in Q1 2025[393]. - The inflation rate in the U.S. for the 12-month period ending September 2025 was 3.0%, compared to 2.4% for the same period in 2024[394]. - The U.K. inflation rate for the 12 months through September 2025 was 4.1%, up from 2.6% in the previous year[394]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate from a target range of 5.25%-5.50% to 3.75%-4.00% between September 2024 and October 2025[395]. - The Bank of England's base rate was lowered to 4.00% as of November 6, 2025, in response to easing inflationary pressures[397]. Company Performance - Net income attributable to AGL for Q3 2025 was $105 million, down from $171 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to foreign exchange losses of $23 million compared to gains of $55 million in the prior year[432][437]. - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2025 was $124 million, a decrease from $130 million in Q3 2024, mainly due to lower benefits in loss expense for the U.S. RMBS sector[443]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, net income attributable to AGL was $384 million, compared to $358 million in the same period of 2024, driven by a fair value gain on credit derivatives of $103 million[438]. - As of September 30, 2025, shareholders' equity attributable to AGL was $5,658 million, up from $5,495 million at the end of 2024[433]. - Total revenues for Q3 2025 were $207 million, down from $269 million in Q3 2024, with net earned premiums at $94 million compared to $97 million[436]. Share Repurchase and Investments - The Company has repurchased 155 million common shares for $5.8 billion since 2013, representing 80% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the repurchase program[424]. - The Company has agreed to invest an aggregate amount of $1.5 billion in alternative investments, including $1 billion in Sound Point managed investments[422]. - Cumulative share repurchases since 2013 amounted to $5,782 million, with an estimated accretive effect of approximately $65.18 per share in shareholders' equity attributable to AGL[427][428]. - The company redeemed $250 million of its common stock in Q3 2025, receiving $213 million in cash and $37 million in alternative investments[428]. Market Activity - New municipal bonds issued totaled $430.0 billion in the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $375.1 billion in the same period of 2024[407]. - The total insured amount for new municipal bonds was $34.2 billion in the nine months ended September 30, 2025, an increase from $28.9 billion in the same period of 2024[407]. - The bond insurance market penetration based on par was 7.9% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to 7.7% for the same period in 2024[407]. - U.S. public finance GWP in Q3 2025 increased to $77 million from $35 million in Q3 2024, representing a 120% growth[471]. - Total GWP for Q3 2025 was $75 million, up from $61 million in Q3 2024, marking a 23% increase[471]. Financial Metrics - The effective tax rate for Q3 2025 was 15.4%, compared to 19.9% in Q3 2024, reflecting the tax jurisdictions of the company's subsidiaries[436][439]. - The overall pre-tax book yield of available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities and short-term investments was 4.80% as of September 30, 2025, compared to 4.10% a year earlier[488]. - The total net par outstanding for the financial guaranty portfolio increased to $274,875 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $261,552 million as of December 31, 2024, representing a growth of 5.03%[577]. - The total U.S. public finance exposure reached $212,091 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $201,175 million at the end of 2024, marking an increase of 5.93%[577]. Risk Factors - Assured Guaranty is exposed to risks from geopolitical tensions, including the conflict arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine[381]. - The company anticipates that a recession may increase the likelihood of defaults among obligors whose obligations it guarantees[392]. - The company identified no material direct exposure to Ukraine or Russia, with direct insurance exposure to Eastern Europe limited to $210 million in net par outstanding[450]. Operational Changes - The company opened new offices in Australia and Singapore in 2024 to expand its financial guaranty business geographically[409]. - The company is actively monitoring market volatility, which may create new business opportunities despite potential risks[392]. - The company has ongoing strategic transactions with Sound Point Capital Management and Assured Healthcare Partners, which may impact future performance[381]. Loss and Expense Management - The insurance segment's adjusted operating income for nine months 2025 was $389 million, compared to $427 million in nine months 2024, reflecting a decrease in performance[460]. - The company reported a loss and LAE of $38 million in nine months 2025, compared to a benefit of $54 million in nine months 2024[446]. - The economic loss development for U.S. public finance exposures was $51 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, mainly attributable to PREPA and certain healthcare exposures[505]. - The total net expected loss to be paid (recovered) for public finance was $103 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $319 million as of September 30, 2024[500].

Financial Performance - Adjusted operating income reached $336 million, a 17% increase per share compared to the same period in 2024[15] - The company earned $124 million of adjusted operating income in the third quarter, a 6% increase on a per share basis above the third quarter 2024 amount[11] - The alternative investment portfolio generated $112 million of pre-tax adjusted operating income[15] New Business and Capital Management - $25 billion of new business par was insured, the highest amount in the first nine months in a decade[15] - $9 billion of new business par was insured in the third quarter, the largest third-quarter amount in a decade[11, 18] - $194 million of PVP was generated[15, 18] - Over 4 million shares were repurchased at a cost of $369 million, representing nearly 9% of shares outstanding on December 31, 2024[15] Portfolio and Resources - The total investment portfolio plus cash stands at $89 billion[28, 64] - Claims-paying resources are $101 billion, resulting in a net par outstanding to claims-paying resources ratio of 27:1[28] - Net par outstanding is $2749 billion, with U S public finance accounting for $2121 billion, non-U S public finance for $513 billion, and global structured finance for $115 billion[28]

Core Insights - Assured Guaranty reported Q3 CY2025 results that exceeded market revenue expectations, with a revenue of $207 million, although this represents a 23% year-on-year decline [1][2] - The non-GAAP profit was $2.57 per share, which is 67.2% above analysts' consensus estimates [1][2] Financial Performance - Net Premiums Earned were $93 million, slightly above analyst estimates of $92 million, reflecting a 4.1% year-on-year decline [2] - Revenue of $207 million surpassed analyst expectations of $184.5 million, marking a 23% year-on-year decline [2] - Adjusted EPS was $2.57, significantly higher than the expected $1.54, indicating a 67.2% beat [2] - Book Value per Share increased to $121.13, showing a 9% year-on-year growth [2] - Market Capitalization stood at $3.88 billion [2] Company Overview - Assured Guaranty has been providing credit protection products since 2003, covering over $11 trillion in debt service payments [3] - The company guarantees scheduled payments on municipal bonds, infrastructure projects, and structured finance obligations [3] Revenue Growth Challenges - Assured Guaranty has struggled to consistently increase demand, with trailing 12-month revenue of $989 million being close to its revenue five years ago, indicating low business quality [4] - Revenue has declined by 14% annually over the last two years, suggesting suppressed demand [5]

Financial Performance - Net income attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. for Q3 2025 was $105 million, a decrease of 38.6% from $171 million in Q3 2024[6]. - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2025 was $124 million, compared to $130 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a decline of 4.6%[6]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2025 was $2.18, a decrease of 31.24% from $3.17 in Q3 2024[6]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for Q3 2025 was 7.4%, down from 12.1% in Q3 2024[6]. - Total capital returned to common shareholders was $134 million in Q3 2025, compared to $147 million in Q3 2024, a decline of 8.84%[6]. - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, net income attributable to AGL was $105 million, down 38.56% from $171 million in the prior year[15]. - Adjusted operating income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $124 million, a decrease of 4.62% from $130 million in the same period of 2024[19]. - Basic earnings per share for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $2.20, compared to $3.23 for the same period in 2024, a decline of 31.93%[15]. - Adjusted operating income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $336 million, compared to $389 million in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 13.6%[148]. Revenue and Premiums - Gross written premiums (GWP) increased to $75 million in Q3 2025, up 22.95% from $61 million in Q3 2024[6]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total revenues reached $833 million, up 16.38% from $716 million in the same period of 2024[15]. - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, total revenues were $207 million, compared to $206 million in the previous year, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.49%[26]. - Net earned premiums for the insurance segment were $95 million, with total expenses amounting to $92 million, resulting in a net income of $105 million[26]. - Total gross written premiums (GWP) for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, reached $195 million, compared to $254 million in the same period of 2024[63]. Assets and Equity - The company reported total assets of $12,101 million as of September 30, 2025, an increase from $11,901 million as of December 31, 2024[17]. - As of September 30, 2025, shareholders' equity attributable to AGL increased to $5,658 million from $5,495 million as of December 31, 2024, representing a growth of 2.97%[11]. - The company’s long-term debt remained stable at $1,702 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $1,699 million at the end of 2024[17]. - Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL per share increased to $121.13, compared to $108.80 in 2024, representing a growth of 11.5%[144]. - Adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share increased to $123.10 from $114.75 year-over-year[152]. Investment Performance - The company reported a fair value gain of $17 million on CIVs for the three months ended September 30, 2025[26]. - The company recorded unrealized losses on the investment portfolio amounting to $(159) million for the three months ended September 30, 2025[25]. - The total net investment income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $94 million, compared to $82 million for the same period in 2024, representing a 14.6% increase[50]. - The total net investment income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $270 million, an increase from $247 million in the same period of 2024, reflecting a growth of 9.3%[53]. - The annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields was reported at $369 million[38]. Claims and Losses - Total claims-paying resources were reported at $10,138 million, slightly down from $10,211 million as of December 31, 2024[11]. - The financial guaranty insurance segment reported a net expected loss of $186 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market[79]. - The total expected net loss to be paid as of September 30, 2025, is $104 million, with significant recoveries noted in both public and structured finance sectors[80]. - The company anticipates a total of $97,393 million in net expected loss amortization from 2025 to 2029, indicating a robust outlook for future financial stability[76]. Risk Management and Capitalization - The capital ratio was reported at 79:1, indicating strong financial stability relative to net debt service outstanding[61]. - The net exposure to qualified statutory capital ratio stood at 50:1, demonstrating effective risk management practices[61]. - Below Investment Grade (BIG) exposures totaled $11,378 million as of September 30, 2025, an increase of 11.7% compared to $10,182 million at the end of 2024[111]. - The company anticipates continued market expansion and strategic initiatives to enhance its portfolio and mitigate risks associated with below investment grade exposures[111]. Non-GAAP Measures - The Company presents both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures, with non-GAAP measures providing necessary information for analysts and investors to evaluate financial results[182]. - Adjusted operating income is defined as net income attributable to AGL, adjusted for realized gains/losses, non-credit impairment-related unrealized gains/losses, and foreign exchange gains/losses[190][193]. - The Company emphasizes that non-GAAP measures should not be considered substitutes for GAAP measures due to potential lack of comparability[181].

Core Viewpoint - Assured Guaranty Ltd. will release its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, on November 6, 2025, after 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time [1] Financial Results Announcement - The financial results press release will be available in the Investor Information section of the Company's website [1] - The release will include the Financial Supplement for September 30, 2025 [1]

Core Insights - Small caps are experiencing a resurgence, with significant potential for dividends, specifically a 7.1% payout being highlighted as an opportunity [2][8] Small Cap Performance - Small caps have historically underperformed compared to large caps, but recent trends indicate they are now matching or even surpassing large caps in performance, as evidenced by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF [3] Advantages of Small Caps - Small firms maintain strong client relationships, benefiting from customer loyalty and directly profiting from the strength of the US economy, providing a hedge against global economic issues [4] Dividend Challenges - Many small caps are in early growth stages and may not be able to offer dividends while funding their expansion, contrasting with larger companies that typically provide more consistent dividends [5][6] Investment Strategy - The focus has been on closed-end funds (CEFs) that invest in large caps and high-yield bonds, which have historically provided higher returns and dividends compared to small caps [7] Exception in Small Caps - The Royce Small-Cap Trust (RVT) is noted as an exception, offering a 7.1% dividend while closely tracking small cap performance [8] Fund Structure and Holdings - RVT invests in a diverse portfolio of 488 small caps, with top holdings including IES Holdings, Assured Guaranty, and SEI Investments, all showing strong revenue growth [9][10] Dividend Flexibility - RVT's dividend is not fixed but floats based on the net asset value (NAV), allowing for potential increases in payouts as NAV rises, which has been consistent over the past five years [11][12] Market Position - RVT is currently available at a 9.2% discount to NAV, indicating potential for upside as the discount has decreased from higher levels earlier in the year [12][13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted book value per share reached a record high of $176.95, and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share also reached a record high of $120.11 at the end of Q2 2025 [6] - Adjusted operating income for Q2 2025 was $50 million or $1.1 per share, compared to $80 million or $1.44 per share in Q2 2024 [22][25] - Net earned premiums and net investment income increased, contributing to the earnings power of core earnings [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company insured $14.1 billion of new issued par sold in the primary market, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year [13] - In the secondary market, the company wrote nearly $900 million of policies in the first half of 2025, with over $500 million in Q2 alone, representing a 150% increase compared to the total amount insured in all of 2024 [8][13] - The insurance segment contributed $76 million to adjusted operating income, while the asset management segment contributed $4 million [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - US municipal issuance was 17% ahead of last year's record pace through June 30, 2025 [7] - The total market volume reached $278 billion by June 30, 2025, with forecasts suggesting that municipal issuance in 2025 could surpass $500 billion [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain its leadership position in US municipal bond insurance while expanding and diversifying its global infrastructure and structured finance reach [12] - A share repurchase program with a target of $500 million for the year is in place, with $296 million already repurchased as of August 6, 2025 [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the growth trajectory in both US and non-US markets, citing a strong competitive position and excellent capital and earnings [11] - The company is well-positioned for the second half of the year, with many attractive opportunities in global infrastructure and structured finance [20] Other Important Information - The company received affirmations of its financial strength ratings from S&P Global Ratings and KBRA, both with stable outlooks [11] - A $250 million stock redemption by the US insurance subsidiary was approved, expected to be executed in 2025 [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of lower interest rates on AGO's opportunities - Management noted that a lower interest rate environment could depress premium volume but may also lead to more issuers in the market, balancing the impact [33][34][39] Question: Increase in big exposures and loss expenses - Management explained that the increase in loss expenses is due to additional reserves on certain UK regulated utility and US municipal revenue exposures, emphasizing their strong surveillance team [40][68] Question: Future of Puerto Rico Oversight Board and restructuring - Management expressed optimism that changes in the Puerto Rico Oversight Board could lead to improvements in restructuring processes, viewing it as a potential positive development [52][54] Question: Performance of contingent value instruments - The company holds approximately $117 million in contingent value securities, which have performed well, and expects continued improvement [58][60]