Core Viewpoint - Allison Transmission (ALSN) has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) due to an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][4][6]. Earnings Estimates and Ratings - The Zacks rating system is based solely on a company's changing earnings picture, tracking the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS from sell-side analysts [2]. - The Zacks rating upgrade for Allison Transmission reflects a positive outlook on its earnings, which is expected to positively impact its stock price [4][6]. Impact of Earnings Estimate Revisions - There is a strong correlation between changes in earnings estimates and near-term stock price movements, making the Zacks rating system valuable for investors [5][7]. - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. Current Earnings Estimates for Allison Transmission - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Allison Transmission is expected to earn $8.83 per share, indicating no year-over-year change, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 0.4% over the past three months [9]. Conclusion on Zacks Rating System - The Zacks rating system maintains a balanced distribution of "buy" and "sell" ratings, with only the top 5% of stocks receiving a "Strong Buy" rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions [10][11]. - The upgrade of Allison Transmission to Zacks Rank 1 positions it among the top 5% of stocks, suggesting potential for higher stock movement in the near term [11].

Core Viewpoint - Allison Transmission (ALSN) has experienced a significant downtrend, with a stock decline of 11.3% over the past four weeks, but it is now in oversold territory, suggesting a potential turnaround due to improved earnings expectations from analysts [1]. Group 1: Technical Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key technical indicator used to identify oversold conditions, with a reading below 30 typically indicating that a stock is oversold [2]. - ALSN's current RSI reading is 19.74, indicating that the heavy selling pressure may be exhausting itself, which could lead to a reversal in the stock's trend [5]. - The RSI helps investors identify potential entry points for stocks that have fallen below their fair value due to excessive selling [3]. Group 2: Fundamental Indicators - There is a strong consensus among sell-side analysts regarding ALSN's earnings estimates, with a 0% increase in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, suggesting potential price appreciation [7]. - ALSN holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, indicating a strong potential for a near-term turnaround [8].

Core Insights - Three stocks with strong value characteristics and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) are highlighted for investors: Virco Manufacturing, Popular, and Allison Transmission Holdings [1][3][4]. Company Summaries - **Virco Manufacturing (VIRC)**: - Designs, produces, and distributes quality furniture for contract and education markets globally - Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings increased by 26.6% over the last 60 days - Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 7.94, significantly lower than the industry average of 14.80 - Holds a Value Score of A [1][2]. - **Popular (BPOP)**: - Full-service financial services provider offering a comprehensive suite of banking and financial services - Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings increased by 5% over the last 60 days - Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 9.91, compared to the industry average of 10.50 - Holds a Value Score of A [3][4]. - **Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN)**: - Manufacturer of fully-automatic transmissions for medium and heavy-duty commercial and defense vehicles - Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings increased by 6.5% over the last 60 days - Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 10.28, compared to the industry average of 54.90 - Holds a Value Score of A [4][5].

Group 1: Royal Gold (RGLD) - The company focuses on acquiring and managing precious metals stream and royalty interests, primarily in gold [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 9.3% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and a dividend yield of 1%, compared to the industry average of 0.0% [1] Group 2: Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) - The company manufactures fully-automatic transmissions for medium and heavy-duty commercial and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 6.5% over the last 60 days [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and a dividend yield of 1.2%, compared to the industry average of 0.0% [2] Group 3: Virco Manufacturing (VIRC) - The company designs, produces, and distributes quality furniture for the contract and education markets worldwide [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 26.6% over the last 60 days [3] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and a dividend yield of 1.3%, compared to the industry average of 0.0% [3]

Group 1 - Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) has agreed to acquire Dana Inc.'s Off-Highway business for approximately $2.7 billion, which manufactures mobile drivetrains and motion systems for heavy-duty vehicles [1][8] - The acquisition will allow Dana to streamline operations and focus on light- and commercial-vehicle supply, aligning with its cost-cutting efforts amid economic pressures [2][4] - Dana's Off-Highway business represented 27% of its total revenues of $10.28 billion in 2024 and operates in over 25 countries with a global customer base [3][8] Group 2 - The integration of expertise from both companies is expected to create new growth opportunities and develop tailored solutions for customers [4] - The transaction is projected to generate annual run-rate synergies of approximately $120 million and is planned to close by the end of Q4 2025, financed through cash and debt [4][8] - ALSN stock has increased by 39.2% over the past year, contrasting with a 5.7% decline in the industry [6]

Summary of Allison Transmission's Analyst and Investor Call Company and Industry - **Company**: Allison Transmission - **Acquisition Target**: Dana Incorporated's off highway business - **Industry**: Powertrain and industrial solutions for commercial duty applications Core Points and Arguments 1. **Strategic Alignment**: The acquisition aligns with Allison's strategic priorities to expand its emerging market footprint, enhance core technologies, and deliver strong financial results, positioning Allison as a global provider in on highway, off highway, and defense markets [6][10][13] 2. **Transaction Details**: The purchase price is $2.7 billion, financed with new debt and cash on hand, representing a 6.8 times multiple on 2024 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $400 million. Including identified annual run rate synergies of around $120 million, the transaction value represents a 5.2 times multiple on 2024's adjusted EBITDA [7][8] 3. **Financial Impact**: The acquisition is expected to increase Allison's revenue significantly, nearly doubling net sales to approximately $6 billion, and increasing adjusted EBITDA by 40% to $1.7 billion, while maintaining industry-leading adjusted EBITDA margins [14][15] 4. **Operational Synergies**: Identified annual run rate synergies are expected to be achieved primarily from operations, procurement, R&D, and SG&A by year four [7][8] 5. **Global Presence**: Dana's off highway business operates in over 25 countries, generating $2.8 billion in revenue for 2024, with over 70% of revenue from outside North America, enhancing Allison's global footprint [10][11] 6. **Product Portfolio Expansion**: The acquisition will expand Allison's product offerings to include axles, gears, and hybrid drivetrain systems, leveraging shared competencies in software, controls, and system integration [11][12] 7. **Sustainability Focus**: The acquisition positions Allison as a leader in the transition to more sustainable solutions across various end markets [12][13] 8. **Cash Flow and Capital Allocation**: Allison's robust cash flow allows for continued dividend payments and share repurchase programs while focusing on deleveraging to a target below two times leverage [26][28] Additional Important Content 1. **Market Share and Competitive Position**: Dana's off highway business is recognized as a significant player in its market, and the combination with Allison is expected to enhance market reach and execution capabilities [18] 2. **Revenue Synergies**: While initial synergies are cost-focused, there is potential for revenue synergies through expanded market access and product offerings, particularly in international markets [39] 3. **Integration Efforts**: The integration of Dana's business is expected to proceed smoothly, with the team being experienced in M&A and integration processes [32] 4. **Future Growth Opportunities**: The acquisition opens up new growth opportunities in adjacent markets, particularly in construction, agriculture, and industrial applications [44][49] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the call, highlighting the strategic rationale behind the acquisition and its anticipated impact on Allison Transmission's growth and market position.

Acquisition Overview - Allison Transmission is acquiring Dana Off-Highway Business for approximately $2.7 billion[11] - The purchase price represents 6.8x Adjusted EBITDA (LTM 12/31/24) of approximately $400 million[11] and 5.2x including estimated run-rate synergies of approximately $120 million[11] - The deal is expected to close in late Q4 2025[11] Financial Highlights - The company anticipates net leverage of less than 3.0x at close, with a near-term target of less than 2.0x[11] - The acquisition is anticipated to be immediately accretive to diluted earnings per share[11] - Allison had $753 million in cash and $744 million available under the revolving credit facility as of March 31, 2025[11] Strategic Rationale - The acquisition expands Allison's global platform and end-market expertise[10] - It accelerates product innovation and enhances alternative propulsion capabilities[10] - The combination expands into adjacent, diverse, and attractive end-markets[10] Dana Off-Highway Business - Dana Off-Highway reported approximately $2.8 billion in net sales in 2024[16] - The business generated approximately $400 million in Adjusted EBITDA in 2024[16] - Free cash flow for Dana Off-Highway was approximately $280 million in 2024[16] Combined Company - The combined company is expected to achieve $6.0 billion in net sales[38] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase by 40% to $1.6-1.7 billion[38] - The combined Adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to be 27-29%[39] End-Market Mix - The combined company's end-market mix will include 45% On-Highway, 4% Defense, and 51% Off-Highway[32, 33] - Construction & Forestry represents 35% of Dana Off-Highway's end-market mix[18] - Agriculture accounts for 18% of Dana Off-Highway's end-market mix[18]

Transaction Overview - Dana Incorporated has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Off-Highway business to Allison Transmission Holdings Inc[9] - The enterprise value of the transaction is $2.7 billion[9] - Dana expects to generate approximately $2.4 billion of net cash proceeds from the sale after tax, other transaction expenses, and assumed liabilities[16] - The transaction is expected to close in late Q4 2025[16] Use of Proceeds - Dana plans to use approximately $2 billion of the proceeds for debt paydown, targeting a net leverage of approximately 1x over the business cycle[16] - The company intends to return $550 million of capital to shareholders, part of a $1 billion total authorized through 2027[16] New Dana Outlook - Dana maintains its current full-year guidance[35] - The company is on track to realize $300 million in cost savings, with $225 million expected in 2025[37] - Dana is targeting $225 million in adjusted free cash flow[38] - For 2026, Dana anticipates adjusted EBITDA margins of 10-10.5%[48] - Dana has authorized $1 billion in capital return to shareholders through 2027, in addition to the existing dividend[44]

Core Viewpoint - Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. has announced a definitive agreement to acquire the Off-Highway business of Dana Incorporated for approximately $2.7 billion, which aligns with its strategic priorities to expand its market presence and enhance core technologies [1][3][6] Company Overview - Allison Transmission is a leading designer and manufacturer of propulsion solutions for commercial and defense vehicles, recognized as the largest global manufacturer of medium- and heavy-duty fully automatic transmissions [11] - The company operates in over 150 countries and has regional headquarters in the Netherlands, China, and Brazil, with manufacturing facilities in the USA, Hungary, and India [11] Acquisition Details - The acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to Allison's diluted earnings per share and is anticipated to generate annual run-rate synergies of approximately $120 million [6] - The transaction will be financed through a combination of cash on the balance sheet and debt, and is expected to close late in the fourth quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approvals [6] Strategic Importance - This acquisition will enable Allison to offer a wider range of commercial-duty powertrain and industrial solutions to a global customer base, enhancing its competitive position in the market [3][4] - Dana's Off-Highway business operates in over 25 countries and is recognized for its industry-leading powertrain technologies, including hybrid and electric drive systems [4][5] Leadership Statements - David Graziosi, Chair and CEO of Allison, emphasized the transformative nature of the acquisition, aiming to empower customers with advanced propulsion and drivetrain solutions [4] - R. Bruce McDonald, Chair and CEO of Dana, expressed confidence that the off-highway business will thrive under Allison's leadership, allowing Dana to focus on its core priorities [5]

Core Thesis - Allison Transmission (ALSN) remains a strong investment opportunity despite missing top-line estimates in 1Q25, with expectations for stock outperformance continuing [2] Business Overview - Allison Transmission operates a diversified business model with revenue streams from various segments, including 55% from North America on-highway, 20% from parts and support, 15% from international on-highway, 7% from defense, and 3% from global off-highway [4][3] - The company benefits from municipal spending, which constitutes 30% to 40% of its North America on-highway revenue, reducing end-market volatility [3] Market Position - Allison Transmission holds a majority market share in its core addressable market for class 4 through 8 vehicles in North America, with projected production growth of 1% annually through 2030 [5][6] Growth Opportunities - Management identified four opportunities expected to generate an additional $100 million in annual revenue each, totaling a potential $400 million [7] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the electric vehicle transition, with significant growth in its electric hybrid propulsion systems for buses, having delivered nearly 9,800 systems and generated over $1.5 billion in revenue since 2003 [9][8] Financial Performance - Allison Transmission has demonstrated strong fundamentals, with revenue and net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) growing at compounded annual rates of 4% and 9% since 2014 [12] - The NOPAT margin improved from 15% in 2014 to 25% in the TTM, with return on invested capital (ROIC) rising from 8% to 19% over the same period [13] Shareholder Returns - The company has returned $506 million in dividends since 2019 and increased quarterly dividends from $0.15/share in 1Q19 to $0.27/share in 1Q25, providing a current yield of 1.0% [16] - Share repurchases totaled $150 million in 1Q25, with $1.4 billion remaining under the current authorization, potentially yielding a combined dividend and repurchase yield of 7.9% [18][20] Cash Flow Generation - Allison Transmission has generated positive free cash flow (FCF) every year since 2013, totaling $3.4 billion from 2019 to 1Q25, which covers its dividend and share repurchase commitments [20][21] Competitive Positioning - The company maintains the highest profit margins in the industry, with the highest NOPAT margin and third-highest ROIC among competitors [24][23] Market Cyclicality - Despite long-term growth projections, the company acknowledges the cyclical nature of its markets, particularly in mining and construction [25][26] - Diversification across end markets helps mitigate overall business cyclicality [28] Valuation Insights - At a current price of $105/share, the market implies no profit growth, contrasting with historical growth rates of 4% and 9% for NOPAT [29] - If NOPAT grows at historical rates, the stock could be valued at least $129/share, indicating a potential upside of 23% [31]