Core Viewpoint - Antero Midstream Corporation (NYSE:AM) has shown strong financial performance in Q4 2025 and has a positive outlook for FY 2026, despite a slight revenue miss in the recent quarter [3][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported an adjusted EPS of $0.28 for Q4 2025, exceeding forecasts by $0.01 [3]. - Adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA increased by 8% and 4% year-over-year, respectively [3]. - Revenue for Q4 2025 was approximately $287.5 million, falling short of expectations by $4.34 million [3]. - Free cash flow after dividends rose by 30% for the full year 2025, attributed to capital-efficient organic growth and throughput [4]. - EBITDA growth of 7% year-over-year for 2025 marks the eleventh consecutive year of growth since the company's IPO in 2014 [4]. Future Outlook - For FY 2026, Antero Midstream targets net income between $485 million and $535 million, representing a 23% increase from 2025 [5]. - The company forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $1.19 billion to $1.24 billion for FY 2026, indicating an 8% increase at the midpoint compared to 2025 [5]. - Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set between $190 million and $220 million [5].

Core Insights - The current year has shown a positive trend, particularly in the demand for value-focused investments, which has exceeded expectations [1] Group 1 - There is a strong surge in demand for value-focused investments, indicating a successful rotation thesis [1] - Leo Nelissen is identified as a long-term investor and macro-focused strategist, emphasizing dividend growth and high-quality compounders [1] - The approach combines macro analysis with bottom-up stock research to identify businesses with strong cash-flow potential [1]

Group 1 - Antero Midstream (AM) ended 2025 with adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow after dividends at the high end of its revised guidance, showing improvement over its original guidance [1] - The company is part of the Distressed Value Investing community, which focuses on value opportunities and distressed plays, particularly in the energy sector [1] Group 2 - The article is authored by Aaron Chow, who has over 15 years of analytical experience and is a top-rated analyst on TipRanks [1] - Aaron Chow previously co-founded a mobile gaming company that was acquired by PENN Entertainment, utilizing his analytical skills in economic modeling for mobile apps [1]

Core Insights - Two stocks in the energy sector are identified as potentially overbought, signaling caution for momentum-focused investors [1] Company Summaries - **Antero Midstream Corp (NYSE:AM)**: No specific details provided in the news article [2] - **SFL Corporation Ltd (NYSE:SFL)**: Reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales results on February 11, leading to a stock price increase of approximately 22% over the past month, with a 52-week high of $10.29. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) value is noted at 83.1, indicating overbought conditions. On the last trading day, shares rose by 2.6% to close at $10.26 [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $285 million, a 4% year-over-year increase driven by higher gathering and compression volumes [5] - Free cash flow after dividends for Q4 was $85 million, contributing to a leverage reduction to 2.7x and approximately $48 million in share repurchases [5] - For the full year 2025, free cash flow after dividends reached a record $325 million, a 30% increase compared to 2024 [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of HG Midstream for $1.1 billion adds over 400 undeveloped locations in the Marcellus Shale, enhancing Antero Midstream's competitive position [3] - The company expects 8% year-over-year EBITDA growth and 11% year-over-year free cash flow growth in 2026, driven by the integration of the acquired assets [4][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates generating over $1.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026, reflecting an 8% increase year-over-year [7] - The capital budget for 2026 is set between $190 million and $220 million, focusing on well connections, water capital, and compression asset integration [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Antero Midstream's strategy emphasizes capital-efficient organic growth and the integration of acquired assets to enhance free cash flow [3][8] - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet with leverage in the low 3x range while executing a balanced return of capital program [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued EBITDA growth and capital efficiency, projecting high single-digit growth beyond 2027 [12] - The integration of the water system and the development program is expected to provide significant growth visibility [4] Other Important Information - The company achieved a 20% return on invested capital (ROIC) in 2025, indicating strong capital efficiency [5] - The acquisition is fully financed, allowing for value accretion to existing shareholders without the need for equity financing [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term growth outlook post-acquisition - Management indicated that the 3 rig, 2 crew program will support continued growth beyond 2027, with expected throughput volume growth of about 200 million a day [12] Question: Growth plans for Antero Resources (AR) and implications for Antero Midstream (AM) - Management noted that AM's capital requirements remain minimal due to existing infrastructure, while AR is well-positioned to meet growing demand over the next 5-10 years [15][16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $285 million, a 4% year-over-year increase driven by higher gathering and compression volumes [5] - Free cash flow after dividends for Q4 was $85 million, contributing to a leverage reduction to 2.7x and approximately $48 million in share repurchases [5] - For the full year 2025, free cash flow after dividends reached a record $325 million, a 30% increase compared to 2024 [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of HG Midstream for $1.1 billion adds over 400 undeveloped locations, enhancing Antero Midstream's competitive position in the Marcellus Shale [3] - The company expects 8% year-over-year EBITDA growth and 11% year-over-year free cash flow growth in 2026 [4][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The capital budget for 2026 is set between $190 million and $220 million, focusing on well connections, water capital, and compression asset integration [6] - The forecast for 2026 includes adjusted EBITDA of over $1.2 billion, reflecting an 8% increase year-over-year [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a just-in-time capital investment strategy that generates consistent free cash flow [3] - The integration of the acquired water system and investment in dry gas assets are expected to provide high visibility into growth [4] - The strategy includes a balanced return of capital program through debt reduction and share repurchases [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates continued growth beyond 2027, with mid- to high single-digit EBITDA growth expected [12] - The company is well-positioned to meet growing demand over the next 5-10 years due to its strategic location and infrastructure [16] Other Important Information - The company achieved a 20% return on invested capital (ROIC) in 2025 [5] - The acquisition is fully financed, allowing for value accretion to existing shareholders without equity financing [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term growth outlook post-acquisition - Management indicated that the 3-rig, 2-rig program will support continued growth beyond 2027, with expected throughput volume growth of about 200 million a day [12] Question: Growth plans for Antero Resources (AR) and implications for Antero Midstream (AM) - Management noted that there is minimal additional capital required for AM due to existing infrastructure, and AR is well-positioned to meet growing demand with firm transport options [14][16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $285 million, a 4% increase year-over-year, driven by higher gathering and compression volumes [5] - Free cash flow after dividends for Q4 2025 was $85 million, contributing to a leverage reduction to 2.7x and approximately $48 million in share repurchases [5] - For the full year 2025, free cash flow after dividends reached a record $325 million, a 30% increase compared to 2024 [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of HG Midstream for $1.1 billion adds over 400 undeveloped locations, enhancing Antero Midstream's competitive position in the Marcellus Shale [3] - The company expects 8% year-over-year EBITDA growth and 11% year-over-year free cash flow growth in 2026, following the integration of the acquired assets [4][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates a capital budget of $190 million to $220 million for 2026, focusing on well connections, water capital, and compression asset integration [6] - The forecast for 2026 includes Adjusted EBITDA of over $1.2 billion, reflecting an 8% increase year-over-year [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Antero Midstream's strategy emphasizes capital-efficient organic growth and the integration of acquired assets to enhance free cash flow and operational efficiency [3][8] - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet with leverage in the low 3x range while executing a balanced return of capital program [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued EBITDA growth and capital efficiency, projecting high single-digit growth beyond 2027 due to the 3-rig, 2-completion crew program [12] - The management highlighted the strategic positioning of Antero Resources (AR) to meet growing demand over the next 5-10 years, supported by Antero Midstream's infrastructure [15] Other Important Information - The company reported a 20% return on invested capital (ROIC) for 2025, indicating strong capital efficiency [5] - The integration of the Intervale Water System is expected to provide high visibility into growth opportunities [4] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term growth outlook post-acquisition - Management indicated that the 3 rig, 2 crew program will support continued growth beyond 2027, with expected mid- to high single-digit EBITDA growth [12] Question: Growth plans for Antero Resources and implications for Antero Midstream - Management clarified that there is minimal additional capital required for Antero Midstream due to existing infrastructure, positioning AR well for future demand [14]

Core Insights - Antero Midstream reported Q4 2025 earnings per share of 11 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 24 cents, and down from 23 cents in the same quarter last year [1][11] - Total quarterly revenues reached $297 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $294 million, and improved from $287 million year-over-year [1] Operational Performance - Average daily compression volumes were 3,424 million cubic feet (MMcf/d), up from 3,266 MMcf/d in the year-ago quarter, and above the estimate of 3,274 MMcf/d [3] - High-pressure gathering volumes totaled 3,193 MMcf/d, a 5% increase from 3,045 MMcf/d year-over-year, surpassing the estimate of 3,068 MMcf/d [4] - Low-pressure gathering volumes averaged 3,435 MMcf/d, compared to 3,276 MMcf/d a year ago, exceeding the estimate of 3,296 MMcf/d [5] - Freshwater delivery volumes were 93 MBbls/d, down 18% from 114 MBbls/d in the prior-year quarter, with an average distribution fee of $4.37, slightly above the estimate of $4.31 [6] Operating Expenses - Direct operating expenses were $54.1 million, down from $55.9 million a year ago [7] - Total operating expenses increased to $196.5 million from $109.7 million in the corresponding period of 2024 [7][11] Balance Sheet - As of December 31, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $180 million and long-term debt of $3.2 billion [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the analysis of oil and gas companies, focusing on identifying undervalued firms within the sector, particularly Antero Midstream and similar companies [1] - The author emphasizes the cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry, highlighting the importance of patience and experience in navigating this market [2] - The investing group, Oil & Gas Value Research, seeks out under-followed oil companies and midstream firms that present attractive investment opportunities [2] Group 2 - The article mentions that the investing group includes an active chat room for Oil & Gas investors to discuss recent developments and share insights [2] - The author has a beneficial long position in the shares of specific companies, indicating a personal investment interest in the sector [3] - The article does not provide specific investment recommendations but encourages investors to conduct their own research and review company filings [4]

Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Presentation February 12, 2026 Antero Midstream (NYSE: AM) Legal Disclaimer Forward-Looking Statements: This presentation includes "forward-looking statements." Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are not under AM's control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activities, events or developments AM expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future ...