Core Insights - The focus on 'Big Picture' investment ideas has intensified in recent weeks, with discussions occurring almost daily [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Leo Nelissen is identified as a long-term investor and macro-focused strategist, emphasizing dividend growth and high-quality compounders [2] - The investment approach combines macro analysis with bottom-up stock research to identify businesses with strong cash-flow potential [2] Group 2: Analyst Disclosure - The analyst has disclosed a beneficial long position in several companies, including CNQ, UNP, CP, ODFL, AM, RTX, TDG, and GE [3]

Core Insights - Antero Midstream Corporation reported $297 million in revenue for Q4 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 3.3% and a surprise of +1.06% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $293.9 million [1] - The company's EPS for the same period was $0.11, down from $0.23 a year ago, resulting in an EPS surprise of -53.78% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.24 [1] Financial Performance - Average Daily Volumes for Low Pressure Gathering were 3,435 million cubic feet per day, exceeding the analyst estimate of 3,398.51 million cubic feet per day [4] - Average Daily Volumes for High Pressure Gathering were 3,193 million cubic feet per day, surpassing the estimate of 3,146.83 million cubic feet per day [4] - Average Daily Volumes for Compression reached 3,424 million cubic feet per day, above the estimate of 3,345.64 million cubic feet per day [4] - Average Daily Volumes for Fresh Water Delivery were 93 million barrels of oil per day, below the estimate of 98.28 million barrels of oil per day [4] - Average Daily Volumes for Other Fluid Handling were 58 million barrels of oil per day, exceeding the estimate of 53.34 million barrels of oil per day [4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from Water Handling for Antero Resources were $63.22 million, slightly below the average estimate of $64.68 million, representing a year-over-year decline of -9.8% [4] - Revenues from Gathering and Processing for Antero Resources were $250.54 million, exceeding the average estimate of $246.11 million, with a year-over-year increase of +6.8% [4] - Revenues from Gathering and Processing were reported at $241.27 million, above the average estimate of $234.9 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +7.1% [4] - Revenues from Water Handling were $64.13 million, surpassing the average estimate of $58.53 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of +3.2% [4] - Amortization of customer relationships reported at -$17.67 million, slightly better than the average estimate of -$18.11 million, with no year-over-year change [4] Stock Performance - Antero Midstream shares have returned +12.4% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.3% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Performance - Antero Midstream reported a net income of $52 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, representing a 52% decrease per share compared to the prior year quarter[4]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $285 million, a 4% increase year-over-year[4]. - The company expects 2026 net income guidance of $485 to $535 million, indicating a 23% increase at the midpoint compared to 2025[4]. - Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 is projected to be between $1.19 billion and $1.24 billion, reflecting an 8% increase at the midpoint compared to 2025[4]. - Antero Midstream's Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2025, is projected to be between $1,124,681,000 and $1,051,074,000[29]. - The company expects Adjusted Free Cash Flow before dividends to be approximately $753,926,000 for 2025, up from $682,723,000 in 2024, indicating a growth of about 10.4%[29]. - Net income for the year ended December 31, 2025, is projected at $413,163,000, a slight increase from $400,892,000 in 2024, representing a growth of about 3.2%[29]. - Net income for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $413,163,000, showing an increase from $400,892,000 in 2024[45]. Capital Expenditures and Debt - Antero Midstream's capital expenditures for 2026 are forecasted to be between $190 million and $220 million[4]. - Capital expenditures on an accrual basis for 2025 are estimated at $178,705,000, compared to $161,324,000 in 2024, showing an increase of approximately 10.8%[29]. - Consolidated total debt is expected to rise from $3,134,300,000 in 2024 to $3,250,000,000 in 2025, indicating an increase of about 3.7%[28]. - The company defines Net Debt as consolidated total debt less cash and cash equivalents, with a projected Net Debt of $2,987,065,000 for 2025[28]. Revenue and Cash Flow - Total revenue for the three months ended December 31, 2025, is reported at $297,004,000, compared to $287,477,000 for the same period in 2024, reflecting an increase of approximately 3.3%[38]. - Total revenues for the three months ended December 31, 2025, were $297,004,000, with a significant contribution from Antero Resources of $250,539,000[43]. - Operating income for the same period was $100,509,000, reflecting a strong performance despite total operating expenses of $196,495,000[43]. - Cash flows provided by operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2025, were $932,464,000, up from $843,994,000 in 2024[45]. Share Repurchase and Dividends - The company repurchased 2.7 million shares for $48 million during Q4 2025, with a remaining capacity of approximately $336 million under its share repurchase program[5]. - The company declared dividends to common stockholders totaling $439,007,000 for the year ended December 31, 2025[45]. Operational Metrics - Fresh water delivery volumes averaged 93 MBbl/d in Q4 2025, an 18% decrease compared to Q4 2024[12]. - Antero Midstream connected 18 wells to its gathering system and serviced 19 wells with its fresh water delivery system during Q4 2025[6]. - The company plans to service 65 to 75 wells with its fresh water delivery system in 2026, with an average lateral length of approximately 13,700 feet[8]. - The company reported a 5% increase in low-pressure gathering volumes, from 301,418 MMcf in 2024 to 316,046 MMcf in 2025[40]. - Fresh water delivery volumes decreased by 19% from 10,476 MBbl in 2024 to 8,514 MBbl in 2025[40]. - Average compression fee increased by 5% to $0.22 per Mcf, while average fresh water delivery fee rose by 1% to $4.37 per Bbl[40][41]. Asset Management - Antero Midstream's total assets are expected to increase from $5,761,748,000 in 2024 to $5,884,116,000 in 2025, reflecting a growth of approximately 2.1%[36]. - The company experienced a loss on long-lived assets amounting to $86,626,000 for the year ended December 31, 2025[43]. - Total cash used in investing activities for 2025 was $169,212,000, a decrease from $242,733,000 in 2024[45].

Acquisition and Divestiture - The company entered into a definitive agreement to acquire HG Midstream for cash consideration of $1.1 billion, which includes gathering pipelines and integrated water handling assets in the Marcellus Shale [298]. - The company plans to sell its Utica Shale Property and Equipment for aggregate cash consideration of $400 million, which includes 118 miles of gathering pipelines and 0.7 Bcfe/d of compression capacity [299]. Financial Performance - Total revenues increased by 7%, from $1.1 billion for the year ended December 31, 2024, to $1.2 billion for the year ended December 31, 2025 [316]. - Gathering and processing revenues increased by 7%, from $889 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, to $950 million for the year ended December 31, 2025 [316]. - Water handling revenues increased by 10%, from $217 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, to $238 million for the year ended December 31, 2025 [316]. - Net cash provided by operating activities increased from $844 million in 2024 to $932 million in 2025, driven by higher revenues and changes in working capital [335]. Operating Expenses - Direct operating expenses increased by 6%, from $218 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, to $232 million for the year ended December 31, 2025 [318]. - General and administrative expenses remained consistent at $42 million for both years ended December 31, 2024, and 2025 [319]. - The company’s operating expenses include direct operating costs, general and administrative expenses, and depreciation, with a focus on minimizing variability in direct operating expenses [309]. Capital Expenditures and Financing - Capital expenditures totaled $178.7 million in 2025, with significant investments in water handling systems increasing from $27 million in 2024 to $80.9 million [339]. - The company expects a capital budget for 2026 between $190 million and $220 million, reflecting the closing of the HG Acquisition and anticipated divestitures [339]. - Net cash used in financing activities decreased from $601 million in 2024 to $500 million in 2025, primarily due to the issuance of $600 million in 2034 Notes [337]. - The company issued $650 million in senior notes due October 15, 2033, and $600 million in senior notes due July 1, 2034, to fund acquisitions and refinance existing debt [300][301]. Tax and Reserves - Income tax expense increased by 2% from $148 million in 2024 to $151 million in 2025, reflecting effective tax rates of 26.9% and 26.8% respectively [328]. - Antero Resources disclosed estimated net proved reserves of 19.1 Tcfe, with 61% being natural gas, 38% NGLs, and 1% oil, providing significant future capital investment opportunities [308]. Market Conditions - Benchmark prices for natural gas and ethane increased significantly, while prices for C3+ NGLs and oil decreased during the year ended December 31, 2025 [304]. - The company expects inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions to potentially increase operating and capital costs, although CPI-based adjustments in agreements may mitigate some impacts [307]. Shareholder Actions - The company repurchased approximately 8 million shares of common stock for a total cost of $135 million, with $336 million remaining under the share repurchase program [303]. Interest and Earnings - Interest expense decreased by 8%, from $207 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, to $190 million for the year ended December 31, 2025 [323]. - Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates increased by 5%, from $111 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, to $116 million for the year ended December 31, 2025 [324]. Asset Management - A loss on long-lived assets of $87 million was recognized during the year ended December 31, 2025, related to the write-down of Utica Shale net assets [322]. - As of December 31, 2025, the company had U.S. federal NOL carryforwards of $557 million and state NOL carryforwards of $406 million [309]. - As of December 31, 2025, the company had no outstanding borrowings under the Credit Facility, indicating improved liquidity [350]. - A 1.0% increase in the Credit Facility interest rate would have resulted in an estimated $5 million increase in interest expense for 2025 [350]. Dependency Risks - The company is heavily reliant on Antero Resources for revenue, with any adverse events affecting Antero potentially impacting the company's financial performance [351].

Core Viewpoint - Antero Midstream Corporation reported its fourth quarter 2025 results, highlighting growth in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, alongside guidance for 2026 that anticipates further increases in net income and adjusted free cash flow [1][2]. Financial Performance - Fourth quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $285 million, a 4% increase year-over-year [1][2]. - Adjusted net income for the fourth quarter was $133 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, representing an 8% increase per share compared to the prior year [1][2]. - Net income for the fourth quarter was $52 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, a 52% decrease per share compared to the prior year [1][2]. - Capital expenditures in Q4 2025 were $45 million, with adjusted free cash flow after dividends at $86 million [1][2]. 2026 Guidance - The company forecasts adjusted free cash flow after dividends of $330 to $390 million for 2026, an 11% increase at the midpoint compared to 2025 [1][2]. - Expected adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is projected to be between $1.19 billion and $1.24 billion, an 8% increase at the midpoint compared to 2025 [1][2]. - Net income guidance for 2026 is set at $485 to $535 million, a 23% increase at the midpoint compared to 2025 [1][2]. Operational Updates - In Q4 2025, Antero Midstream connected 18 wells to its gathering system and serviced 19 wells with its fresh water delivery system [1][2]. - The company invested $21 million in gathering and compression and $24 million in water infrastructure during the fourth quarter [1][2]. - Fresh water delivery volumes averaged 93 MBbl/d in Q4 2025, an 18% decrease compared to Q4 2024 [2]. Share Repurchase Program - Antero Midstream repurchased 2.7 million shares for $48 million in Q4 2025, with approximately $336 million remaining under its share repurchase program as of December 31, 2025 [1][2]. - A total of 9.4 million shares were purchased under the share repurchase program in 2025 at a weighted average price of $17.28 per share [1][2]. Strategic Focus - The 2026 capital budget is focused on high return infrastructure projects in the Marcellus Shale, including the buildout of a rich gas gathering system and integration of recently acquired assets [1][2]. - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet with leverage near 3 times and a balanced approach to debt reduction and opportunistic share repurchases [1][2].

Core Insights - Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 11, after market close [1] - In the last reported quarter, AM's adjusted earnings of 24 cents per share fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 25 cents due to increased operating expenses, although higher gathering and compression volumes helped mitigate the impact [1] Earnings Performance - AM has beaten earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters, missed in one, and reported breakeven in another, resulting in an average earnings surprise of 3.26% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share remains at 24 cents, reflecting no revisions in the past week, which indicates a 4.4% improvement from the same quarter last year [3] Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues in the fourth quarter is projected at $293.9 million, representing a 2.2% increase from the year-ago figure [3][8] - AM is expected to generate revenue from stable, fee-based contracts primarily with Antero Resources Corporation for the transportation and processing of natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas [4] Earnings Prediction - The earnings model suggests a potential earnings beat for AM, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5] - The company is anticipated to report revenues from its pipeline, gathering, compression, processing, and water services assets [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the expectation that value stocks will generate substantial alpha in the current year and beyond, while also highlighting the author's focus on macro analysis and stock research to identify durable businesses with strong cash-flow potential [1]. Group 1: Market Insights - The current market rotation has been a significant focus for the year, with an increased emphasis on value stocks [1]. - The author believes that value stocks will outperform and provide substantial returns in the near future [1]. Group 2: Author's Background - The author, Leo Nelissen, is characterized as a long-term investor and macro-focused strategist, with a strong interest in dividend growth and high-quality compounders [1]. - The author's investment strategy combines macro analysis with bottom-up stock research to identify businesses with strong cash-flow potential [1].

Group 1 - The company is Dassault Aviation, a French corporation with a share capital of €62,717,627.20 [2] - The headquarters of the company is located at 78, quai Marcel Dassault, 92210 SAINT-CLOUD [2] - As of January 31, 2026, the total number of shares is 78,397,034, with theoretical voting rights amounting to 130,565,778 [2][3] - The exercisable voting rights are reported to be 129,706,328 [2][3]

Group 1 - The article discusses a macro development that could be very bullish for dividend stocks, emphasizing that this is not a random discussion but a core thesis for investing in high-quality dividend stocks [1] - Leo Nelissen is identified as a long-term investor and macro-focused strategist, with a focus on dividend growth and high-quality compounders [1] - The approach combines macro analysis with bottom-up stock research to identify durable businesses with strong cash-flow potential [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that Leo Nelissen also writes for Main Street Alpha, where he publishes deeper-dive research and actionable investment ideas for long-term investors [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the ongoing exponential growth in specific developments rather than general GDP growth, indicating a strong focus on macroeconomic trends and investment opportunities [1] - Leo Nelissen is highlighted as a long-term investor and macro-focused strategist, known for his passion for dividend growth and high-quality compounders, which suggests a focus on sustainable investment themes [1] - The combination of macro analysis with bottom-up stock research is noted as a strategy to identify durable businesses with strong cash-flow potential, indicating a thorough approach to investment analysis [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that the author has a beneficial long position in several companies, which reflects a personal investment strategy aligned with the discussed themes [2] - It is stated that the article expresses the author's own opinions and is not influenced by compensation from companies mentioned, suggesting an independent analysis [2] - The disclosure from Seeking Alpha indicates that past performance does not guarantee future results, which is a standard caution in investment discussions [3]