Ambac Financial Group (NYSE:AMBC) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 24, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsClaude LeBlanc - President and CEODavid Trick - EVP, CFO and TreasurerKaren Beyer - Head of Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsMark Hughes - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystOperatorAs a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Karen Beyer, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.Karen BeyerThank you. Good morning, welco ...

Ambac Financial Group (NYSE:AMBC) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 24, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsClaude LeBlanc - President and CEODavid Trick - EVP, CFO and TreasurerKaren Beyer - Head of Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsMark Hughes - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystOperatorAs a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Karen Beyer, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.Karen BeyerThank you. Good morning, welco ...

Ambac Financial Group (NYSE:AMBC) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 24, 2026 08:30 AM ET Speaker4As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Karen Beyer, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.Speaker2Thank you. Good morning, welcome to Octave Specialty Group's fourth quarter 2025 call to discuss financial results. Speaking today will be Claude LeBlanc, President and CEO, and David Trick, Chief Financial Officer. They will discuss the financial results o ...

Earnings Conference Call Presentation Fourth Quarter 2025 2 Octave Specialty Group: Pure-Play Specialty Insurance Platform Our Vision To be the leading MGA specialty insurance platform, delivering innovative solutions through expertise, technology and trusted partnerships. Forward Looking Statement In this presentation, we have included statements that may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words s ...

Exhibit 99.1 • Total P&C premium production increased 15% for the quarter to $303 million • Insurance Distribution Segment ◦ Commission Income grew to $37 million, an increase of 13% ◦ Organic revenue growth equaled 8.1% ◦ Net loss to Shareholders of $(1) million for the quarter, an improvement of 76% ◦ Adjusted EBITDA to Shareholders of $7 million for the quarter, up 33% • Specialty P&C Insurance ("Everspan") ◦ Gross and net premiums written of $80 million and $23 million were up 34% and 978%, respectively ...

Core Viewpoint - Ambac Financial Group (AMBC) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive trend in earnings estimates which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Ratings - The Zacks rating system is based solely on a company's changing earnings picture, tracking the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS from sell-side analysts [2]. - The Zacks rating upgrade for Ambac reflects an improved earnings outlook, which is expected to positively impact its stock price [3][5]. Impact of Earnings Estimate Revisions - There is a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements, making the Zacks rating system valuable for investors [4][6]. - Rising earnings estimates for Ambac indicate an improvement in the company's underlying business, likely leading to higher stock prices [5]. Performance of Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - Ambac's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10]. Current Earnings Estimates for Ambac - Ambac is expected to earn -$0.65 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, with no year-over-year change, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 3.7% over the past three months [8]. Zacks Rating System Characteristics - The Zacks rating system maintains a balanced proportion of "buy" and "sell" ratings across its universe of over 4,000 stocks, with only the top 5% receiving a "Strong Buy" rating [9].

Core Viewpoint - Ambac Financial Group (AMBC) shares have increased by 19.4% in the past four weeks, closing at $9.91, with a mean price target of $14.67 indicating a potential upside of 48% [1] Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean estimate consists of three short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $4.51, where the lowest estimate is $10.00 (0.9% increase) and the highest is $19.00 (91.7% increase) [2] - A low standard deviation suggests a strong agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement [2][9] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts show strong agreement in revising earnings estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price increases [4][11] - Over the last 30 days, one estimate has increased, leading to a 3.7% rise in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year [12] Zacks Rank and Investment Potential - AMBC holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] - The consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of potential gains, but the implied direction of price movement is a useful guide [14]

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported a net loss from continuing operations of $32 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, compared to a loss of $18 million, or $0.43 per share in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased intangible amortization and G&A expenses [10][11] - Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was a loss of $3 million, down from a sub-$2 million gain in Q3 2024, influenced by prior FX gains and increased corporate expenses [11][12] - The insurance distribution segment saw revenue increase by 80% year-over-year to $43 million, driven by strong organic growth of 40% and an additional month of Beat results [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The insurance distribution segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $10 million with a 23% margin, up from $3 million and an 11.1% margin in Q3 2024, reflecting strong organic growth and higher profit commissions [12][13] - Everespan's net written and net earned premium decreased to $18 million and $17 million, respectively, down from $33 million and $27 million in the prior year, due to proactive non-renewals [13][14] - The combined ratio for Everespan increased to 112.9% from 100.5% in the prior year, with adverse development contributing significantly to the loss ratio [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has expanded from one MGA to 22 since its inception five years ago, with pro forma revenue growing more than seven-fold since 2021 [17] - The company anticipates maintaining robust organic growth and expects to achieve a target of approximately $30 million in adjusted expenses for 2026 [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has rebranded as Octave Specialty Group, marking a shift to a pure-play specialty P&C insurance business, with a focus on capital management, organic growth, and disciplined acquisitions [4][5][8] - The strategic initiatives include platform expansion, accretive M&A transactions, and significant corporate expense reductions, aiming to deliver sustainable long-term shareholder value [17][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving aspirational EBITDA goals, with a focus on organic growth and the successful launch of new MGAs [24][25] - The company expects to continue making material progress on strategic initiatives, positioning for strong performance in 2026 and beyond [7][8] Other Important Information - The company completed the sale of its legacy financial guarantee business for $420 million and acquired RemadaCare, enhancing its specialty A&H MGA platform [6][7] - Corporate G&A expenses were reduced to $26.6 million in Q3 2025, down from $27.2 million in Q3 2024, with further reductions expected from ongoing initiatives [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Organic growth in the distribution business - Management confirmed that the 40% organic growth was driven by business momentum without any profit or contingent commissions affecting the numbers [27][28] Question: Third-party capacity and future needs - Management indicated that they believe they have sufficient capacity for the business, with interest from capital providers exceeding their needs for the next year [29] Question: Capital allocation priorities - Management emphasized a balanced approach to capital allocation, focusing on organic growth, share buybacks, and selective M&A opportunities [30] Question: Premium outlook for Everespan - Management expects controlled, modest growth in premiums, projecting around $370-$380 million for the current year, with expectations for continued modest growth into 2026 [35][36] Question: EBITDA margins relative to written premium - Management noted that the revenue to written premium ratio varies by business, focusing more on bottom-line results rather than top-line revenue nuances [38][39]