Coal Production and Sales - In 2023, met coal accounted for approximately 95% of the company's coal revenues, with long-term relationships established with domestic customers [47]. - The company produced approximately 14.8 million tons of met coal in 2023, representing 20% of the total U.S. met coal production of 72.4 million tons [56]. - Coal export revenues accounted for approximately 74% of the company's total coal revenues for the year ended December 31, 2023 [163]. - Metallurgical coal (met coal) represented about 95% of the company's coal revenues for the year ended December 31, 2023 [164]. - Thermal coal accounted for approximately 5% of the company's coal revenues for the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily sold to U.S. electric power generators [180]. - Approximately 66% of the company's thermal coal tons sold were shipped internationally in 2023 [56]. - Export coal sales to Asia accounted for approximately 46% of export coal revenues in 2023, down from 53% in 2022 [46]. - Approximately 21% of thermal coal sales volume was delivered under long-term contracts in 2023, a decrease from 54% in 2022 [49]. Regulatory and Environmental Compliance - The Clean Air Act and comparable state laws impose direct and indirect impacts on coal mining operations, including permitting requirements and emission control requirements [90]. - The company must comply with the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA), which establishes standards for mining, environmental protection, and reclamation [81]. - The company is subject to increasingly stringent regulatory and administrative requirements for coal mining permits, which may lead to being "permit-blocked" due to past or ongoing violations [84]. - The company has certain procedures in place to comply with environmental and safety regulations, but cannot guarantee complete compliance at all times [74]. - The SEC is working to finalize regulations to standardize climate-related disclosures, which may impact the company's operations and reporting requirements [73]. - The EPA proposed to revise the primary annual standard for PM2.5 from 12.0 µg/m3 to a range of 9.0 to 10.0 µg/m3, with the final revision set at 9.0 µg/m3 [93]. - The EPA's regulations may impose additional emissions control requirements on customers in the electric generation, steelmaking, and coke industries [94]. - The company is subject to numerous federal, state, and local environmental laws, which could affect operational costs and regulatory compliance [137]. - Legal challenges to the Clean Water Act (CWA) and its jurisdiction have created uncertainty for coal mining operations, affecting compliance and permitting [122]. - The EPA's recent amendments to the definition of "waters of the United States" conform to the Supreme Court's decision in Sackett, impacting regulatory requirements [127]. Financial Performance and Risks - A sustained period of low coal prices could materially adversely affect the company's operating results, cash flows, and the value of coal reserves [163]. - The company faces risks from competition within the coal industry, which may adversely affect its ability to sell coal and put downward pressure on prices [170]. - The concurrent loss of several large customers could significantly reduce the company's revenues and profitability [169]. - The company is subject to risks associated with obtaining financing and services due to policies of financial institutions regarding fossil fuel producers [168]. - Changes in international trade agreements and foreign competition may impact the financial condition and business of the company's customers [171]. - The ongoing military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused significant market disruptions, leading to increased volatility in commodity prices, including coal [176]. - Downturns in the global economy and financial markets have historically resulted in extreme volatility in securities prices and diminished liquidity, adversely affecting coal demand and pricing [173]. - The tightening of credit in financial markets could negatively impact customers' ability to obtain financing, leading to decreased demand and lower coal prices [174]. - The company faces increasing regulatory costs due to stringent environmental, health, and safety regulations, which could materially affect production costs and competitive position [186]. Operational Challenges - The company faces a significant shortage of skilled labor, which is impacting operating efficiency and increasing labor costs [225]. - The company relies on third-party suppliers for mining materials and equipment, facing a shortage of skilled employees in the industry [53]. - The company holds a 65.0% ownership interest in the DTA coal export terminal, which is critical for fulfilling customer coal quality requirements [220]. - 89% of the company's coal volume was transported by rail, making it vulnerable to disruptions in rail services [219]. - Increased transportation costs could adversely affect the company's ability to maintain production profitability and reduce overall demand for coal [222]. - The company relies on a limited number of suppliers for mining equipment and materials, making it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and cost increases [235]. Environmental Liabilities and Costs - As of December 31, 2023, the company accrued $205.4 million for reclamation liabilities and mine closures, including $38.9 million of current liabilities [75]. - The company recorded $2.0 million of expense related to the Abandoned Mine Land Fund fees for both 2023 and 2022, with the current fee being $0.224 per ton on surface-mined coal and $0.096 per ton on deep-mined coal [86]. - The company's posted third-party surety bond amount was approximately $177.1 million as of December 31, 2023, compared to $165.6 million in 2022, primarily securing reclamation and lease obligations [88]. - The company may face significant liabilities under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) for hazardous substance contamination [135]. - The new Biological Opinion from the Office of Surface Mining (OSM) could complicate the permitting process for mining operations, potentially increasing costs [131]. - The company faces challenges in obtaining and renewing necessary permits for operations, which could reduce production and profitability [199]. Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - Future legislation and regulations may require substantial increases in equipment and operating costs, affecting the company's competitive position in the coal industry [73]. - Climate change initiatives and GHG emissions reduction regulations could significantly reduce coal demand and the value of coal assets [188]. - The company assesses market conditions for met and thermal coal to determine the best approach for its reserves, with a potential shift from met to thermal coal impacting revenues [238]. - Timely development or acquisition of economically recoverable coal reserves is crucial for the company's business success [239]. - Future growth depends on acquiring additional economically recoverable coal reserves, with challenges in developing new mines or expanding existing ones [241]. - The ability to mine coal reserves cost-effectively is essential, with potential inaccuracies in estimating reserve sizes and qualities affecting profitability [240].

Core Insights - Seeking Alpha's Alpha Picks portfolio has achieved a return of 114% since its launch on July 1, 2022, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which is up 32% during the same period [2][3][12] Alpha Picks Overview - Alpha Picks is a quantamental portfolio that selects two stocks per month from Seeking Alpha's Quant Strong Buys, focusing on mispriced securities with strong fundamentals [3][4] - The selection process involves analyzing approximately 400 Strong Buys to identify the top two stocks based on five core metrics: value, growth, profitability, analyst EPS revisions, and momentum [5][8] Performance Metrics - The portfolio includes stocks that have shown exceptional performance, with seven stocks up over 100%, including Super Micro Computer, which is up 1,000% since its recommendation [12][18] - Other notable performers include Modine Manufacturing (up 283%), M/I Homes (up 232%), and Alpha Metallurgical Resources (up 193%) [12][21] Stock Selection Criteria - Stocks must be U.S. common stocks or ADRs, have a market capitalization greater than $500 million, and a stock price above $10 to qualify for selection [5][6] - Once a stock is recommended, it will not be recommended again for a full year, ensuring a diverse portfolio [6][7] Trading Strategy - The strategy allows for a long-term approach, where stocks that double in value may only have half their position sold if they drop to a hold rating after 180 days [9][11] - The portfolio maintains transparency with performance tracking and alerts for rating changes [4][7] Dividend Considerations - Approximately 14 out of 30 stocks in the portfolio pay dividends, with yields often exceeding those of the S&P 500, providing an additional benefit to investors [20][21] Market Trends and Outlook - The Magnificent Seven tech stocks have seen significant gains, with a combined increase of 111% in 2023, driven by a flight to safety and interest in AI technologies [23][24] - As the market stabilizes and interest rates potentially decrease, there may be a rotation towards mid-cap and small-cap stocks, benefiting the Alpha Picks portfolio [25][26] Recent Performance - In the latest quarter, nearly all companies in the Alpha Picks portfolio exceeded analyst expectations, contributing to strong performance in January [26][27]

Product Development - PPG Industries Inc. has launched the PPG ADJUSTRITE Repair Management tool, enhancing the PPG AdjustRite commercial estimating system to boost productivity in commercial vehicle repairs [1] - The tool features a mobile-friendly design, providing technicians with a time clock system and automated tracking of labor hours per repair order, while shop managers gain insights from productivity indicators and efficiency statistics [1] Market Position - The PPG AdjustRite system is recognized as the leading estimating platform among commercial vehicle dealers, independent collision repair businesses, fleet repair units, independent adjusters, and insurance companies [2] - It utilizes a comprehensive database of truck components and repair data to generate reliable estimates based on actual vehicle model specifications, covering the entire repair process [2] Financial Performance - PPG's adjusted earnings per share rose to $1.53 in Q4 2023 from $1.22 in the same quarter last year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.50 [4] - The company's revenues increased approximately 4% year over year to $4,350 million in Q4 2023, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,266.5 million [4] - For Q1 2024, PPG anticipates adjusted EPS in the range of $1.80-$1.87, and for the full year 2024, it expects adjusted EPS between $8.34-$8.59 [4] Stock Performance - PPG shares have increased by 9.8% over the past year, compared to a 19.6% rise in its industry [4]

Company Performance - Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) has a year-to-date performance of approximately 6.6%, outperforming the average loss of 7.1% in the Basic Materials sector [2][3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMR's full-year earnings has increased by 48.2% over the past quarter, indicating improved analyst sentiment and a more positive earnings outlook [2] - Alpha Metallurgical is part of the Mining - Miscellaneous industry, which has seen an average loss of 9.2% this year, further highlighting AMR's relative strength [3] Industry Comparison - The Basic Materials sector, which includes 236 companies, currently ranks 15 in the Zacks Sector Rank [1] - Steel Dynamics (STLD), another stock in the Basic Materials sector, has returned 5.5% year-to-date, also outperforming the sector average [2] - The Steel - Producers industry, to which Steel Dynamics belongs, is ranked 183 and has moved -1.7% this year, indicating weaker performance compared to the Mining - Miscellaneous industry [3]

Here at Zacks, we focus on our proven ranking system, which places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions, to find winning stocks. But we also understand that investors develop their own strategies, so we are constantly looking at the latest trends in value, growth, and momentum to find strong companies for our readers.Considering these trends, value investing is clearly one of the most preferred ways to find strong stocks in any type of market. Value investors use tried-and-true metrics a ...

Group 1 - Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) is currently ranked 15 in the Zacks Sector Rank for Basic Materials, which includes 236 companies [1] - The Zacks Rank for Alpha Metallurgical is 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong potential for outperforming the market in the next one to three months [1] - Over the past 90 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMR's full-year earnings has increased by 28.1%, reflecting improved analyst sentiment [2] Group 2 - Year-to-date, Alpha Metallurgical has returned approximately 20%, significantly outperforming the Basic Materials group average return of 5.2% [2] - In comparison, another Basic Materials stock, Ur Energy (URG), has returned 12.3% year-to-date and has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [2] - Alpha Metallurgical belongs to the Mining - Miscellaneous industry, which includes 56 stocks and has gained about 5.1% this year, indicating AMR's superior performance within this industry [3]

Core Insights - Investors favor businesses with consistent profitability, measured effectively by net profit margin, which indicates a company's efficiency in converting sales into profits [1][2] - A higher net profit margin compared to peers provides a competitive advantage for companies [2] Summary by Sections Net Profit Margin - Net profit margin is calculated as Net Profit/Sales * 100, reflecting the amount retained after all expenses [1] - A strong net profit margin is crucial for attracting investors and skilled employees, enhancing overall business value [1] Pros and Cons - Net profit margin offers clarity on a company's business model, including pricing, cost structure, and manufacturing efficiency, making it a preferred metric for investors [3] - However, the metric varies significantly across industries, and its effectiveness can be diminished by factors such as accounting treatments and debt financing [3] Winning Strategy - A healthy net profit margin combined with solid earnings per share (EPS) growth is essential for maximizing returns [4] Screening Parameters - Criteria for screening include a net margin of at least 0%, positive EPS growth, a broker rating of 1 (extreme bullishness), a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 (strong buy or buy), and a VGM Score of A or B for optimal upside potential [5] Company Highlights - **Virco Manufacturing Corporation (VIRC)**: Zacks Rank 1, VGM Score A, with a fiscal 2024 earnings estimate of $1.35 per share, reflecting a 20.5% increase in the last 60 days and an average surprise of 188.6% over the last four quarters [6] - **H&E Equipment Services, Inc. (HEES)**: Zacks Rank 1, VGM Score A, with a 2023 earnings estimate of $4.50 per share, maintaining a 21.4% average surprise over the last four quarters [6] - **Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)**: Zacks Rank 1, VGM Score A, with a 2023 earnings estimate of $44.60 per share, an 8.8% increase in the last 30 days, and a 9.6% average surprise [7] - **Photronics, Inc. (PLAB)**: Zacks Rank 1, VGM Score B, with a fiscal 2024 earnings estimate of $2.60 per share, reflecting a 15.6% increase in the last 60 days and an average surprise of 8.5% [8]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of value investing, which focuses on identifying undervalued companies using fundamental analysis and traditional valuation metrics [1] Company Analysis: Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) - AMR holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and a Value grade of A, indicating strong potential for value investors [2] - The stock has a P/E ratio of 8.56, significantly lower than the industry average of 11.15, with a 52-week range of 3.66 to 13.15 and a median of 5.64 [2] - AMR's P/B ratio is 3.58, compared to the industry's average P/B of 5.67, with a 52-week range of 1.31 to 3.72 and a median of 1.81 [2] - The P/S ratio for AMR is 1.67, which is lower than the industry's average P/S of 1.86, indicating a favorable valuation based on sales [3] - AMR's P/CF ratio is 5.63, well below the industry's average P/CF of 22.09, with a 52-week range of 1.46 to 5.84 and a median of 2.23 [3] Company Analysis: ClevelandCliffs (CLF) - CLF also holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and a Value grade of A, making it another attractive option for value investors [4] - The P/B ratio for CLF is 1.13, significantly lower than the industry's average P/B of 5.67, with a 12-month range of 0.88 to 1.46 and a median of 1.06 [4] Conclusion - Both Alpha Metallurgical Resources and ClevelandCliffs are identified as likely undervalued stocks, supported by strong earnings outlooks, making them appealing choices for value investors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying and maintaining trends in short-term investing, highlighting the utility of a "Recent Price Strength" screen to find stocks with strong fundamentals that can sustain upward momentum [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) has shown a significant price increase of 68.8% over the past 12 weeks, indicating strong investor interest [2]. - In the last four weeks, AMR's price has increased by 15.1%, suggesting that the upward trend is still intact [2]. - AMR is currently trading at 93.8% of its 52-week high-low range, indicating a potential breakout [2]. Group 2: Fundamental Strength - AMR holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises [3]. - The Zacks Rank system has a strong historical performance, with Rank 1 stocks averaging a +25% annual return since 1988 [3]. - The Average Broker Recommendation for AMR is also 1 (Strong Buy), reflecting high optimism from the brokerage community regarding its near-term price performance [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article suggests that AMR is not the only stock that meets the criteria of the "Recent Price Strength" screen, encouraging investors to explore other potential candidates [4]. - It highlights the availability of over 45 Zacks Premium Screens tailored to different investing styles, which can help identify winning stock picks [4]. - The Zacks Research Wizard tool allows backtesting of stock-picking strategies, enhancing the effectiveness of investment decisions [4].

Andrzej Rostek Introduction Although I mainly focus on dividend (growth) investing, I regularly cover other investment opportunities, including companies in areas of significant economic importance. After all, macroeconomic developments are a big part of my research. One of my favorite sectors to cover is energy, which includes coal. In the first coal-focused article this year, I want to highlight a company I have never covered before. That company is Alpha Metallurgical Resources (NYSE:AMR), one of the bes ...