Core Insights - JR Research is recognized as a top analyst in technology, software, and internet sectors, focusing on growth and GARP strategies [1] - The investment approach emphasizes identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities with robust price action to generate alpha above the S&P 500 [1][2] - The investment group Ultimate Growth Investing specializes in high-potential opportunities across various sectors with a focus on strong growth potential and contrarian plays [3] Investment Strategy - The strategy combines sharp price action analysis with fundamental investing to identify growth opportunities with significant upside potential [2] - The focus is on avoiding overhyped and overvalued stocks while targeting battered stocks that have recovery possibilities [2] - The investment outlook typically spans 18 to 24 months for the thesis to materialize [3] Target Audience - The group is designed for investors looking to capitalize on growth stocks with strong fundamentals, buying momentum, and turnaround plays at attractive valuations [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the benefits of subscribing to Beyond the Wall Investing, highlighting potential savings on equity research reports from banks [1] - ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) was previously rated as a "Buy" with expectations for stock price increases due to favorable market conditions [1] - The investing group offers features such as a fundamentals-based portfolio, weekly analysis from institutional investors, and alerts for short-term trade ideas [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the analyst has no current stock or derivative positions in the mentioned companies but may initiate a long position in ASML within 72 hours [1]

Group 1 - The individual transitioned from a city life to a self-sufficient existence in a remote forest, emphasizing a shift from dependency on urban systems to reliance on natural ecosystems [1] - The experience in the forest led to a profound personal transformation, allowing for a deeper understanding of life and success beyond societal expectations [1] - The individual reflects on the importance of volatility and challenges in personal growth, suggesting that comfort can hinder development [1] Group 2 - Writing is highlighted as a crucial tool in the research process, with an intention to share insights with a broader audience [1] - The individual expresses a belief that financial success follows naturally when one focuses on learning and personal growth rather than pursuing money directly [1] - A philosophical perspective is presented, indicating that true treasures are not material but rather spiritual and experiential [1]

Core Viewpoint - ASML Holding N.V. has experienced a significant stock price decline of 25.1% over the past year, underperforming the broader market and major semiconductor companies, despite its strong market position and financial performance [1][3]. Company Performance - ASML's stock underperformance is attributed to macroeconomic pressures and company-specific challenges, including a broader tech sector sell-off and weakening semiconductor demand [4][5]. - The Dutch government's export restrictions on ASML's advanced lithography tools to China have hampered growth prospects, as China accounted for 41% of ASML's lithography shipments in 2024 [6]. - ASML's forward P/E ratio stands at 27.92, which is higher than the Zacks Computer and Technology sector average of 23.92, raising valuation concerns among investors [7]. Technological Leadership - ASML maintains a near-monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, essential for producing advanced chips at 3nm and below, positioning it as a key enabler in semiconductor manufacturing [9][11]. - The company's High-NA EUV technology, designed for sub-2nm nodes, represents significant long-term potential, despite slower-than-expected adoption [10]. Financial Performance - ASML reported €9.26 billion in net sales for Q4 2024, a 24% year-over-year increase, with net income rising 30% to €2.69 billion and EPS growing 30% to €6.85 [12]. - The gross margin expanded by 90 basis points year-over-year to 51.7%, reflecting strong cost management and productivity improvements [13]. - For 2025, ASML expects a 15% revenue growth, driven by rising demand for EUV and DUV lithography systems, along with anticipated margin expansions [14]. Order Backlog and Revenue Visibility - ASML has a record-high order backlog of €36 billion, providing strong revenue visibility, with €7.1 billion in new orders booked in Q4 2024 [15][16]. - The demand for ASML's lithography tools is driven by the AI boom and the need for next-generation chip production [17][18]. Conclusion - Despite facing near-term challenges, ASML's technological leadership, robust financials, and substantial order backlog indicate strong long-term growth potential, making it a compelling hold for investors [19][20].

Core Insights - The rise of reasoning models in AI is expected to lead to rapid expansion in the industry, with ASML being well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - Reasoning models in AI are generating orders of magnitude more tokens, indicating a significant increase in demand for AI capabilities [1] Group 2: Company Positioning - ASML is highlighted as one of the best-positioned companies to take advantage of the reasoning model trend, suggesting strong potential for growth and investment opportunities [1]

Group 1: Stock Performance - ASML closed at $731.11, with a slight increase of +0.11% from the previous session, outperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.07% [1] - Over the past month, ASML shares have decreased by 2.82%, which is better than the Computer and Technology sector's loss of 11.12% and the S&P 500's loss of 7.03% [1] Group 2: Earnings Expectations - Analysts expect ASML to report earnings of $6.12 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 81.07% [2] - The consensus estimate for ASML's revenue is projected at $8.08 billion, indicating a 40.65% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] Group 3: Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $25.37 per share and revenue at $34.34 billion, representing increases of +21.85% and +12.41% respectively from the prior year [3] Group 4: Analyst Sentiment - Recent changes to analyst estimates for ASML indicate optimism regarding the company's business and profitability [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which includes estimate changes, currently ranks ASML at 3 (Hold) [5] Group 5: Valuation Metrics - ASML has a Forward P/E ratio of 28.78, which is higher than the industry's Forward P/E of 25.84 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.6, compared to the average PEG ratio of 1.26 for Semiconductor Equipment - Wafer Fabrication stocks [6] Group 6: Industry Ranking - The Semiconductor Equipment - Wafer Fabrication industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 82, placing it in the top 33% of over 250 industries [7]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the recent market sell-off in tech stocks, the long-term outlook for AI investments remains strong, with significant growth expected in the coming years [1] Group 1: AI Investment Landscape - The AI investment wave is still in its early stages, with substantial opportunities for investors to acquire undervalued AI stocks [1] - Key companies in the AI race include Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), ASML, Nvidia, and Broadcom, which are essential for the AI revolution [2] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - TSMC is the world's leading chip foundry, providing fabrication services for major clients like Broadcom and Nvidia, and is recognized for its innovation and technology leadership [3] - TSMC anticipates AI-related revenue growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% over the next five years, with overall revenue growth projected at nearly 20% CAGR [4] - TSMC has announced an additional $100 billion investment in U.S. facilities, complementing a previous commitment of $65 billion, due to high demand and capacity sell-out through 2027 [5] Group 3: ASML - ASML produces critical machines, including extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, essential for high-end chip fabrication, holding a technological monopoly in this area [6] - The expansion of TSMC's capacity directly benefits ASML, as its technology is integral to the chip manufacturing process [6] Group 4: Nvidia and Broadcom - Nvidia, a major customer of TSMC, specializes in graphics processing units (GPUs) that are vital for AI training and complex computing tasks, maintaining a strong market position [7] - Broadcom designs custom AI accelerators known as XPUs, which can outperform GPUs in specific applications, making them important for AI model development [8] - Both Nvidia and Broadcom operate in a large market that allows for growth despite competition [9] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - All four companies are currently trading at lower valuations compared to the past year, presenting attractive investment opportunities [10] - TSMC is highlighted as the most undervalued, trading at less than 20 times forward earnings, making it a top pick among the group [11] - While short-term challenges may persist, the long-term outlook for these companies is positive, with expectations of significant price appreciation over the next five years [12]

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent market sell-off has significantly impacted technology stocks, particularly Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and ASML, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors [1][8] - The sell-off is primarily driven by fears surrounding President Trump's tariffs, which are not expected to affect the long-term trajectory of these companies [8] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) - TSM is the leading contract chip manufacturer, producing chips for major technology companies like Apple and Nvidia, which lack their own chip foundries [3] - TSM is experiencing substantial growth in AI-related chips, with a projected revenue increase of 45% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years, and overall revenue expected to rise at nearly 20% CAGR [4] - TSM has announced a $100 billion investment in U.S. chip production facilities, in addition to the $65 billion already spent, to meet the skyrocketing demand for U.S.-produced chips [5] Group 3: ASML - ASML is the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, giving it a technological monopoly in the chip manufacturing sector [6][7] - The expansion of TSM's production facilities will lead to increased purchases of ASML machines, benefiting ASML significantly [7] - ASML's monopoly status is reinforced by decades of research and substantial R&D investments, making it a stable long-term investment [7] Group 4: Investment Thesis - Both TSM and ASML are currently trading at significant discounts, with TSM down approximately 21% from its all-time high and ASML down over 30% [8] - The current pricing presents a favorable opportunity for investors to acquire these stocks, which are expected to perform well in the long term due to favorable trends in the chip market [9]

Core Viewpoint - ASML has been trending in stock searches, prompting analysis of factors influencing its stock performance in the near future [1] Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the current quarter, ASML is expected to post earnings of $6.12 per share, reflecting an increase of +81.1% year-over-year, with a consensus estimate change of +1.6% over the last 30 days [5] - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is $25.37, indicating a +21.9% change from the previous year, with a +0.8% change in the last 30 days [5] - For the next fiscal year, the consensus estimate is $29.55, showing a +16.5% change year-over-year, with a +1% change over the past month [6] Revenue Growth Projections - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $8.08 billion, representing a +40.7% year-over-year change [9] - The sales estimates for the current and next fiscal years are $34.34 billion and $37.97 billion, indicating changes of +12.4% and +10.6%, respectively [9] Last Reported Results - ASML reported revenues of $9.88 billion in the last quarter, a +26.8% year-over-year increase, with an EPS of $7.30 compared to $5.60 a year ago [10] - The reported revenues exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.76 billion by +1.2%, and the EPS surprise was +1.67% [11] - ASML has consistently beaten consensus EPS and revenue estimates in the last four quarters [11] Valuation - ASML is graded D in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a premium compared to its peers [15] - Valuation multiples such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF) are essential for assessing whether ASML's stock is overvalued, fairly valued, or undervalued [13][14] Overall Assessment - The Zacks Rank 3 suggests ASML may perform in line with the broader market in the near term, despite the market buzz [16]

ASML (NASDAQ: ASML ) ( OTCPK:ASMLF ) (NEOE: ASML:CA ) is a practical monopoly, with about 90% market share in DUV equipment, we could say this segment is more like an oligopoly, where Canon and Nikon also participate. That is notStriving to compound knowledge. Long-time fan of Warren and Charlie. Always invert. "To finish first, you must first finish". Investing own and family funds for +20 years. Senior finance roles at public and private corporations for most of that time.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a ...