好的，各位投资人，晚上好，然后欢迎参加我们的医药每周谈第 236 期，关于 GP MOOC 2026 的海外公司的一个进展。然后我是中银建投医药分析师徐颖翔。然后就是关于整个 Gilead 海外公司的一个情况吧。我们可以看得出来，在整个基于摩根这个期间的话，海外 的药企主要就是在一个专利悬崖的一个压力下面，是加速转型与和与技术兑现。大部分跨 国药企的话，是通过一个大规模的 BD 和并购来平滑自己重磅产品专利的到期的一个销售 冲击。包括默沙东规划 700 亿美元的一个新的产品组合，BMS 的话这几年也完成了 300 亿美元的一个并购交易，阿斯利康的话也是目标在 2030 年能够实现一个 800 亿美元的一 个营收。 因此这几年的话，整个受并购与 BD 还是各家跨国药企最重要的一个战略布局的一个方向， 主要也就是为了应对专利悬崖，同时聚焦高确定性的资产，以及技术平台的一个补强。另 一方面的话，也是整个 AI，从工具也上升到了一个制药的一个核心生产力。成为整个制药 行业的一个核心的驱动，驱动力之一。多家跨国药企，包括礼来、阿斯利康、赛诺菲，都 在 GD Morgan 期间。通过与英伟达以及各种其他的 AI 公司达成 ...

Group 1 - The core message of the news is the significant investment plans by AstraZeneca in China, particularly in Qingdao, as part of the UK Prime Minister's visit to China, signaling a potential revival of UK-China relations and economic cooperation [1][3][10] - AstraZeneca plans to invest over 100 billion yuan (approximately 15 billion USD) in China by 2030, focusing on expanding its pharmaceutical production and R&D capabilities [3][10] - The investment will include upgrades to existing production bases in cities like Wuxi, Taizhou, Qingdao, and Beijing, as well as the establishment of new production facilities [3][10][12] Group 2 - AstraZeneca's total investment in Qingdao has increased from 450 million USD to 886 million USD over three years, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its operations in the region [6][8] - The company aims to create over 20,000 jobs in China, contributing to the local healthcare ecosystem and enhancing Qingdao's position in AstraZeneca's global business strategy [9][12] - The investment is expected to accelerate project construction in Qingdao, with plans for production facilities to be operational by 2028 and 2030 [9][10] Group 3 - The visit of UK Prime Minister Starmer, accompanied by a large business delegation, highlights the UK's intention to repair and enhance trade relations with China, particularly in sectors like finance, automotive, and pharmaceuticals [3][14] - Other companies in the delegation, such as HSBC and PwC, have established connections with Qingdao, indicating a broader interest in fostering economic ties between the UK and Qingdao [14][15] - Qingdao's government has actively sought to attract UK investments, emphasizing the importance of creating a favorable business environment to facilitate these partnerships [21][22]

Group 1: Market Performance - The FTSE 100 reached a record high of 10,342 points, closing up 1.15% despite declines in gold and oil prices [4][6][8] - The FTSE 250 also hit a four-year high of 23,426 points, indicating strong performance in the mid-cap sector [6][8] - European stocks rallied, with France's CAC rising 0.8% and Germany's DAX advancing 1.1%, while the continent-wide Stoxx 600 index climbed just over 1% [9] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Gold prices fell sharply, down 3.6% to $4,649 an ounce, compared to nearly $5,600 the previous week, marking a significant decline [5][53] - Silver experienced a dramatic drop, plunging 30% on Friday and an additional 7% to $78.47, far below its record high of $121 [5][53] - Brent crude oil prices decreased nearly 5% to $66 a barrel, influenced by geopolitical developments and market sentiment [5][62] Group 3: Natural Gas Market - US natural gas futures dropped 26% to $3.21 per million British thermal units, marking the largest decline in 29 years due to forecasts for warmer weather [2] - Europe's TTF benchmark gas price fell 16.5% to €33.32 per megawatt-hour, easing supply concerns amid milder temperature predictions [2] Group 4: Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin hit a 10-month low, falling below $80,000, with significant losses attributed to a broader market sell-off [3][50] - The CEO of the UK's largest Bitcoin company reported a loss of nearly $100 million but expressed intentions to continue purchasing Bitcoin [11][12] Group 5: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman has led to market volatility, with expectations of tighter monetary policy impacting investor sentiment [20][43] - Analysts predict that Warsh may lower interest rates while simultaneously reducing the Fed's balance sheet, aiming to support economic growth without increasing inflation [35][38]

Core Insights - AstraZeneca (AZN) has entered a strategic collaboration with CSPC Pharmaceutical to develop next-generation therapies for obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) [1][2] Group 1: Deal Overview - AstraZeneca aims to secure exclusive worldwide rights (outside China) to CSPC's once-monthly injectable weight-management pipeline, which includes a near-clinical asset, SYH2082, and three other preclinical programs [2][8] - The deal encompasses eight programs, with AstraZeneca and CSPC advancing four programs using CSPC's AI-driven peptide drug discovery platform and proprietary LiquidGel technology [3][7] - AstraZeneca will make an upfront payment of $1.2 billion to CSPC, with potential milestone payments of up to $3.5 billion across all eight programs [5][7] Group 2: Development and Commercialization - CSPC will continue developing the four programs through phase I, after which AstraZeneca will take over further development and commercialization outside China [8] - CSPC retains rights in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau, while AstraZeneca has an option to co-commercialize the products in these markets upon potential approval [8] Group 3: Strategic Investments - This collaboration follows AstraZeneca's recent announcement of a $15 billion investment to expand manufacturing and R&D capabilities in China through 2030 [9] - The investment supports AstraZeneca's strategic ambitions to achieve total revenues of $80 billion by 2030 and launch 20 new medicines, with several expected to exceed peak annual revenues of $5 billion [10] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The obesity market is currently dominated by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, with both companies generating significant revenues from their cardiometabolic drugs [11] - Novo Nordisk recently launched an oral version of its Wegovy pill, while an FDA decision for Lilly's oral obesity pill is expected in the first half of 2026 [12] - Other companies, including Viking Therapeutics, are also developing treatments for obesity, indicating a growing interest in this lucrative market [13]

截至2024年的五年间，阿斯利康美国存托凭证交易量涨幅达34%，而同期其伦敦市场股票交易量增幅不 足8%。其他多家英国大型企业的美国存托凭证交易量也实现大幅增长：巴克莱银行增幅超3倍，帝亚吉 欧、英美烟草以及葛兰素史克的增幅均超1倍。 长期以来，英国市场难以与美国市场抗衡——美国市场规模更大、流动性更强，且汇聚了大量高增长企 业，反观英国市场多为估值偏低的传统经济板块。尽管英国股市当前处于历史高位，但表现始终落后于 美国市场，这种差距自新冠疫情后进一步拉大：以美元计价，2020年初至今富时100指数涨幅约40%， 与标普500指数115%的涨幅相去甚远。 阿斯利康股票将同时在伦敦证券交易所、斯德哥尔摩纳斯达克交易所及纽约证券交易所三地挂牌交易， 股票代码均为AZN。 英国最大制药企业阿斯利康公司的股票将通过上市升级取代其原在纳斯达克交易的美国存托凭证，于周 一在纽约证券交易所开始交易。 这家制药与疫苗企业正通过进一步向美国市场倾斜以吸引更多投资者，其近半数营收均来自美国市场。 公司表示，此举将让其在英国、瑞典及美国三地的上市地位获得同等权重。 这体现出美国市场对阿斯利康业务的重要性持续提升，与此同时，在首席执 ...

智通财经APP获悉，英国最大的制药商阿斯利康(AZN.US)的股票将于周一开始在纽约证券交易所交 易。此前该公司进行了上市升级，以取代原先在纳斯达克交易的美国存托凭证(ADR)。阿斯利康今后将 在伦敦证券交易所、斯德哥尔摩纳斯达克和纽约证券交易所这三个交易所同时上市交易。 这家疫苗及药物制造商正寻求通过进一步向美国市场倾斜来吸引更多投资者，目前其近一半的收入来自 美国。公司表示，此举将使其在英国、瑞典和美国的上市地位具有同等分量。 这反映了美国市场对阿斯利康业务日益增长的重要性，也体现了随着首席执行官帕斯卡尔·索里奥特寻 求在全球最大的制药市场获得增长，公司重点正相对地从母国转移。此后，美国投资者将更容易购买阿 斯利康的完整股票，这增加了该公司在伦敦上市地位相关性可能下降的可能性。 虽然英国股市处于历史高点，但其表现仍落后于美国。这种分歧自新冠疫情以来尤为明显：自2020年初 以来，富时100指数以美元计算上涨了约40%，远不及标准普尔500指数115%的涨幅。 在美国总统特朗普关税计划带来的压力下，阿斯利康承诺到2030年在美国投资500亿美元。与此同时， 该公司已暂停了其英国总部价值2亿英镑(约合2.74 ...

Shares of AstraZeneca, the UK’s biggest drugmaker, will start trading on the New York Stock Exchange following a listing upgrade https://t.co/OYiA3OpjpY ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the best long-term low volatility stocks to invest in, highlighting the importance of adapting to a changing economic landscape characterized by increased volatility and the emergence of new investment themes [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Sherry Paul from Morgan Stanley emphasizes a shift from globalization to a "new world order," indicating a need for reimagining supply chains and partnerships, particularly in AI and automation manufacturing in the U.S. [2] - The current economic environment suggests increased volatility ahead, which is seen as a natural part of investing rather than a negative indicator [3]. Group 2: Investment Methodology - The selection of stocks is based on a methodology that identifies long-term stocks with stable fundamentals and a beta below 1, focusing on those with the highest number of hedge fund holders as of Q3 2025 [6]. - The rationale for focusing on hedge fund favorites is that imitating top stock picks can lead to market outperformance, as evidenced by a quarterly newsletter's significant returns since May 2014 [7]. Group 3: Company Highlights - **AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ:AZN)**: - The company is enhancing its weight management portfolio through a collaboration with CSPC Pharmaceuticals, focusing on next-generation therapies for obesity and type 2 diabetes [9]. - AstraZeneca will gain exclusive global rights outside of China to CSPC's weight management portfolio, which includes a clinical-ready asset and several preclinical programs [10][11]. - **International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM)**: - The company received a price target increase from Argus to $360, driven by strong Q4 performance attributed to GenAI and hybrid cloud momentum [13]. - RBC Capital also raised its price target to $361, citing solid free cash flow performance and exposure to secular themes, particularly from the z17 mainframe refresh cycle [14].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index briefly crossed 7000 points for the first time on January 28, 2026, rebounding nearly 40% since April 2025 lows, with five record closes noted by January 27, 2026 [1] - The Nasdaq Composite has seen modest gains in 2026, while the Russell 2000 has surged nearly 7% year-to-date as of January 29, 2026, outperforming large-cap peers for 14 consecutive trading sessions, the longest streak since 1996 [2] Valuation Concerns - The Shiller S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 41, the highest since the dot-com bubble, while the trailing P/E ratio is at 31.52, significantly above the historical average of 16.2 [3] - Bank of America's head of US equity strategy, Savita Subramanian, indicates that the S&P 500 is expensive, predicting it will reach 7,100 by year-end 2026, which is among the lowest forecasts on Wall Street [3] Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that value stocks will remain favored if US economic momentum strengthens, noting that these stocks, with forward P/E ratios below 15, have outperformed higher-valuation stocks at the start of the year, achieving a 15% return in the last six months of 2025 [4] Stock Selection Methodology - The list of best cheap stocks for 2026 was created using screeners like TradingView and Finviz, focusing on US-listed stocks with forward P/E ratios between 3 and 15 and a positive upside potential of at least 20%, ranked by hedge fund holdings as of Q3 2025 [7][8] HNI Corporation - HNI Corporation (NYSE:HNI) is highlighted as a top cheap stock for 2026, with a forward P/E of 11.92 and an upside potential of 58.46% [9] - Benchmark Co. raised its price target for HNI to $75 per share from $60, citing a planned acquisition of Steelcase Inc. valued at approximately $2.2 billion, expected to yield annual cost synergies of about $120 million [10] - HNI's shares are priced below historical values, with a P/E ratio of 13.35, and the company has a history of consistent dividend payments over 55 years [11] Sanofi SA - Sanofi SA (NASDAQ:SNY) is also listed as a cheap stock for 2026, with a forward P/E of 9.02 and an upside potential of 25.11% [15] - Citi Research initiated coverage on Sanofi with a Neutral rating and an €85 price target, expressing concerns over pipeline setbacks affecting long-term growth [16] - Sanofi's current valuation reflects these setbacks, with analysts noting that the market is unlikely to reward the stock with a higher multiple without evidence of pipeline improvement [17] - Positive results were reported for Sanofi's experimental medicine amlitelimab in Phase 3 clinical studies for atopic dermatitis, indicating potential for future growth [18]

该行认为siRNA进入肥胖维持市场，将对所有胜肽类方案构成真正威胁。siRNA药物切入减重及肌保市 场，或最终挤压肽基肥胖疗法。该行密切追踪Arrowhead和Wave siRNA资产进展后，认为肥胖维持领域 正日益拥挤。建议投资人关注未来siINHBE和siALK7靶点对减重维持市场的影响。 招商证券国际发布研报称，石药集团(01093)与阿斯利康(AZN.US)达成历史性交易公告，表示看好交 易，但需等待石药或阿斯利康披露更多长效GLP-1全球开发细节。重申"中性"评级，认为短期基本面仍 存隐忧。 该行表示，根据石药最新公告，与阿斯利康合作的关键临床候选药物为SYH2082，长效GLP-1R/GIPR双 激动剂，现已进入I期临床。该行对此长效GLP-1平台了解甚少。SYH2082刚在中国启动I期研究。需等 待管理阶层揭露其设计细节及潜在临床开发路径，方能进行价值量化评估。该行维持"中国创新药进入 全球管线"的长期正面判断，但建议投资者仔细审视BD公告前已被市场计入预期的资产估值因素，并对 双方合作进展进行深度量化评估。 ...