Core Viewpoint - Boeing's stock has shown a modest increase of 0.9% over the past six months, contrasting with a decline in the aerospace-defense industry and broader aerospace sector [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Boeing's performance is less impressive compared to peers like Embraer, Airbus, and RTX Corp., which saw stock increases of 44%, 10.3%, and 6.7% respectively [2]. - The consensus estimate for Boeing's long-term earnings growth rate is 17.4%, surpassing the industry's 11.4% [7]. - Boeing's projected sales for the first quarter of 2025 indicate a 17.3% improvement year-over-year, while full-year 2025 sales are expected to rise by 25.6% [8]. Group 2: Growth Prospects - Rising demand for air travel and the need to replace aging fleets are expected to drive Boeing's growth, with new aircraft offering 25% to 40% improved fuel efficiency [4]. - Boeing anticipates a $4.4 trillion market opportunity in commercial aviation support and services over the next two decades, with a robust backlog of $21.40 billion in its jet service business [5]. - The defense segment secured contracts worth $8 billion in Q4 2024, leading to a backlog of $64.02 billion, enhancing revenue growth prospects [6]. Group 3: Financial Stability - As of the end of 2024, Boeing's cash and cash equivalents totaled $26.28 billion, while long-term debt stood at $52.59 billion, indicating a strong solvency position in the near term [12]. Group 4: Challenges and Risks - Boeing faces challenges such as the ongoing issues with the 737 Max program, which has hindered growth [13]. - Industry-specific challenges, including a shortage of skilled labor and supply chain issues, may impact Boeing's ability to meet demand [16]. - The trailing 12-month return on invested capital (ROIC) is negative, indicating insufficient returns on investments [17]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - Investors may consider waiting for a better entry point due to Boeing's poor ROIC and declining earnings estimates [19]. - Current shareholders may continue to hold the stock, given its solid sales growth potential in 2025 and better performance compared to its sector and industry [20].

Core Viewpoint - Boeing Co has faced significant challenges over the past year, including issues in its commercial and defense units, as well as a workers' strike, leading to its inclusion on a list of the 25 worst S&P 500 stocks to own in March [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Boeing's stock averaged a 5% loss in March over the last decade, with only three instances of closing higher during that period [2] - The stock is currently trading at $175.27, indicating a potential drop to around $166 if it follows historical trends [2] - Boeing's stock has a year-over-year deficit of 15.2% and has struggled to close above the $188 level since January, with five consecutive closes below the 20-day moving average [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Despite Boeing's recent struggles, options traders remain optimistic, as indicated by a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.14, which is higher than 98% of annual readings [4] - Short sellers maintain a strong position, with 19.18 million shares sold short, representing 214.7% of the stock's available float, despite a 16.6% decrease in short interest over the last two reporting periods [5]

Core Viewpoint - Boeing's recent earnings report indicates significant financial challenges, with losses widening and revenues declining year-over-year, raising concerns about the company's future performance and market position [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Boeing reported an adjusted loss of $5.90 per share, which was worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $3.22, and a deterioration from the previous year's loss of $0.47 per share [2][3]. - Total revenues for Q4 2024 were $15.24 billion, slightly above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.19 billion, but down 31% from $22.02 billion in the same quarter last year [4]. - For the full year 2024, revenues totaled $66.52 billion, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $66.84 billion and reflecting a 14% decline from $77.79 billion in 2023 [5]. Segment Performance - The Commercial Airplanes segment saw revenues drop 55% year-over-year to $4.76 billion, with an operating loss of $2.09 billion, significantly worse than the previous year's operating profit of $0.04 million [7]. - Boeing delivered 57 commercial planes during the quarter, a 64% decline compared to the previous year, but maintained a backlog of over 5,500 airplanes valued at $435 billion [8]. - The Defense, Space & Security segment recorded revenues of $5.41 billion, down 20% year-over-year, with an operating loss of $2.26 billion, worsening from a $0.10 billion loss in the prior year [9]. - Global Services revenues improved by 6% year-over-year to $5.12 billion, with an operating income of $998 million, up 19% from the previous year [10]. Financial Condition - Boeing ended 2024 with cash and cash equivalents of $13.80 billion and short-term investments of $12.48 billion, compared to $12.69 billion and $3.27 billion at the end of 2023 [11]. - The company reported a long-term debt of $52.59 billion, an increase from $47.10 billion at the end of 2023 [11]. - Operating cash outflow for 2024 was $12.08 billion, compared to an inflow of $5.96 billion in 2023, while free cash outflow totaled $14.31 billion against an inflow of $4.43 billion in the previous year [12]. Market Sentiment - Recent estimates for Boeing have trended downward, with a consensus estimate shift of -104.31% indicating a negative outlook [13]. - The company currently holds a subpar Growth Score of D and a Momentum Score of F, resulting in an overall VGM Score of F, placing it in the bottom 20% for investment strategies [14]. - The outlook suggests a continued downward trend in estimates, with Boeing holding a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [15].

Group 1 - The article discusses the net orders and deliveries for Boeing and Airbus in 2025, indicating a return to a monthly analysis series based on reader feedback [1] - The goal of the investing group, The Aerospace Forum, is to discover investment opportunities in the aerospace, defense, and airline industry, highlighting significant growth prospects [1] - The analysis is driven by data-informed insights, providing context to industry developments and their potential impact on investment theses [1] Group 2 - The investing group offers direct access to data analytics monitors, enhancing the research capabilities for investors in the aerospace sector [1]

Core Insights - The potential cancellation of NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) program could significantly impact Boeing and its partners, while also creating opportunities for competitors like SpaceX and Blue Origin [1][10]. Group 1: Boeing and SLS Program - Boeing's SLS program manager warned employees that up to half of the 800 jobs could be at risk due to potential contract cancellations by the Trump administration [3][4]. - NASA has not indicated plans to cancel the SLS program, stating it is "essential" to Project Artemis, although job security for Boeing's SLS workers remains uncertain [5][6]. - NASA spends approximately $3 billion annually on the SLS program, which constitutes about 12.5% of Boeing's defense, space, and security division's revenue [7]. Group 2: Financial Implications - If the SLS program is canceled, the government could save more annually than the total cuts made by the Trump administration based on recommendations from the "Department of Government Efficiency" [8]. - Over the duration of Project Artemis, the potential revenue loss for Boeing and its partners could reach $82 billion due to the cancellation of the SLS program [9][10]. Group 3: Opportunities for Competitors - The cancellation of the SLS program does not equate to the end of Project Artemis, as funds could be redirected to other companies for lunar missions [11]. - SpaceX is positioned to benefit significantly, having existing NASA contracts for moon landers and rockets capable of lunar missions [12]. - Blue Origin and other smaller companies like Intuitive Machines and Rocket Lab could also gain from the reallocation of funds, with Blue Origin already having launched a competitive rocket [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Boeing is facing mixed news regarding its operations, particularly concerning delays in key programs, which may impact investor confidence and the company's recovery trajectory [1]. Group 1: Air Force One Delays - The Air Force One program is one of four problematic fixed-price development programs at Boeing Defense, Space & Security, alongside the KC-46 refueling tanker, T-7 training aircraft, and MQ-25 refueling drone [2]. - Although these programs account for only 15% of BDS revenue, they have resulted in multibillion-dollar losses and charges in recent years [3]. - If Boeing had to choose a program to delay, it would likely prefer Air Force One due to potentially greater long-term demand for the other aircraft types [3]. Group 2: Boeing 777X Timeline - Deliveries of the two Boeing VC-25B planes for Air Force One could be delayed until 2029, following previous delays to 2027 or 2028 [4]. - Emirates, a key customer for the Boeing 777X, now expects deliveries of its 205 ordered jets to begin no sooner than Q2 2027, possibly extending to 2028 [4]. - The 777X was initially expected to enter service in 2020, and delays could lead to compensation payments to airlines and negatively impact Boeing's cash position [6][7]. Group 3: 737 MAX Production Outlook - Safran's CEO expressed confidence that Boeing will achieve a delivery rate of 38 per month for the 737 MAX in H1 2025 and 42 per month by year-end [4]. - GE's CEO anticipates a 15% to 20% increase in LEAP engine production, aligning with Boeing's production plans [8]. - Achieving a delivery rate of 42 per month for the 737 MAX would allow for more optimistic assumptions regarding Boeing Commercial Airplanes' profitability and cash flow, enhancing the stock's near-term prospects [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Boeing is a dual-monopoly enterprise in the aerospace sector, with operations spanning commercial airplanes (BCA), defense and space (BDS), and global services (BGS). Despite facing challenges in 2024, including a significant drop in delivery volumes and a net cash flow loss, the company demonstrates strong corrective capabilities and strategic management adjustments [5][6] - The report anticipates a recovery in revenue and profitability, projecting a revenue increase to $81.99 billion in 2025, with a return to profitability by 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Boeing operates in three major segments: BCA, BDS, and BGS, and is the largest commercial aircraft manufacturer globally. The company faced a 51% quarter-on-quarter drop in delivery volumes in Q4 2024 due to operational disruptions [5][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, Boeing reported revenues of $66.52 billion and a net loss of $11.82 billion. The BCA segment generated $22.86 billion in revenue but incurred an operating loss of $7.97 billion, primarily due to the 737-9 incident and labor strikes [6] - The company ended 2024 with cash and securities totaling $26.3 billion and reduced total debt to $53.9 billion [6] Market Demand and Orders - Global air travel demand has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with Boeing's backlog reaching $521 billion, involving 5,500 aircraft. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects industry net profits of $31.5 billion in 2024 and $36.6 billion in 2025 [6] Management Strategy - The new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, is implementing significant reforms to address quality control issues and streamline operations. The company aims to vertically integrate its supply chain through the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, expected to complete in 2025 [6] Production Adjustments - Boeing has adjusted its production rates in response to safety investigations and labor strikes, with plans to ramp up production of the 737 series once conditions allow [6] Future Projections - The report forecasts a recovery in deliveries and revenues, with expected deliveries of 544, 656, and 786 aircraft from 2025 to 2027, respectively. Revenue is projected to grow to $81.99 billion in 2025, with a return to profitability anticipated by 2025 [6]

海外公司跟踪报告 | 美股 证券研究报告 | 2 月 18 日收盘价（美元） | 184.97 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万美元） | 138,741 | | 总股本（百万股） | 750 | | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | | 相关研究 【兴证海外汽车】波音（BA.N）：工会罢 工冲击短期业绩，新 CEO 多举或解债务 难题-2024.11.01 【兴证海外汽车】波音（BA.N）：收购供 应商、管理层更换、生产恢复，百年波 音再启航-2024.08.05 | 公司评级 | 增持（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 19 日 | 基础数据 【兴证海外】波音 BOEING（BA.N) 2024Q1 业绩点评：额外安全检查影响交 付量、下半年产能有望恢复-2024.05.08 分析师：余小丽 S0190518020003 AXK331 yuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张弘彬 S0190524080002 请注意: 张弘彬并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 zhangho ...

Core Points - Boeing has appointed Jeff Shockey as the new executive vice president of Government Operations, Global Public Policy & Corporate Strategy, effective February 24, 2025 [1][2] - Shockey will oversee Boeing's global public policy initiatives, including government operations and sustainability, and will lead the Boeing Global Engagement philanthropic organization [2] - He will report directly to Boeing President and CEO Kelly Ortberg and will be a member of the company's Executive Council [2] Leadership Experience - Jeff Shockey brings over 30 years of experience in government, government relations, and business development, which is expected to help restore trust with key government stakeholders [3] - His previous roles at Boeing include vice president of Global Sales and Marketing for Defense, Space & Security, and vice president of Federal Affairs and International Policy for Government Operations [3] - Shockey has also held significant positions in the U.S. House of Representatives, including staff director of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence [3] Company Overview - Boeing is a leading global aerospace company and a top U.S. exporter, involved in the development, manufacturing, and servicing of commercial airplanes, defense products, and space systems for customers in over 150 countries [4] - The company emphasizes innovation, economic opportunity, sustainability, and community impact through its workforce and supplier base [4] - Boeing is committed to fostering a culture based on core values of safety, quality, and integrity [4]

Barclays Industrial Select Conference Copyright © 2025 Boeing. All rights reserved. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Certain statements made today constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as "may," "will," "should," "expects," "intends," "projects," "plans," "believes," "estimates," "targets," "anticipates," and other similar words or expressions, or the negative thereof, generally can be used to help identify these forward-look ...