近日，花旗集团大中华区首席经济学家余向荣在2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会上，从外资视角、新 经济趋势、就业挑战应对等多维度，分享了对中国经济未来五年发展的判断。其观点显示，2025 年已 成为中国叙事的转折之年，"中国资产不可回避" 成为海外投资共识，而人工智能引领的新经济赛道， 正迎来机遇与挑战并存的发展新阶段。 "2025 年是中国叙事的转折之年，海外投资者对中国资产的认知已发生根本性转变。" 余向荣指出，过 去流传的 "中国不可投资论" 已被 "中国资产不可回避" 的共识取代，2025 年成为海外资本对中国的 "警 醒之年"。这一转变的驱动力来自两方面：一方面，以 DeepSeek 为代表的突破性科技成果横空出世，叠 加中国在国际交往中展现的战略定力，让全球资本重新评估中国的核心竞争力；另一方面，2025 年作 为 "十四五" 规划与 "中国制造 2025" 的收官之年，海外机构经全面评估确认，中国设定的各项战略目 标均已圆满实现。"中国通过一个又一个五年计划稳步推进长期战略的执行力，是外资重新定价中国价 值的关键考量。" 余向荣补充道，随着海外投资者对中国政策框架与约束条件的理解不断加深，其对短 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Economic Performance**: The global economy has shown resilience, with real GDP growth projected at 3.3% for 2026, consistent with 2025's growth rate of 3.0% [7][8] - **Tariffs Impact**: Tariffs are reshaping global trade dynamics, with significant implications for various countries' export rates to the US [13][17] - **Inflation Trends**: Global inflation remains subdued, with the US being an exception, experiencing higher inflation rates compared to other regions [19][25] - **Monetary Policy**: Central banks are in a cycle of easing, with various countries adjusting their policy rates [29][30] - **AI Advancements**: Investments in AI are expected to enhance productivity significantly in the coming years [33][34] Core Themes 1. Resilient Economic Performance - **Real GDP Growth**: Developed markets are projected to grow at 1.9% in 2026, with the US at 2.5% and emerging markets at 4.1% [8] - **US Economic Indicators**: Job creation remains strong, with a notable unemployment rate of 4.4% as of December 2025 [39] 2. Tariffs Shifting Global Trade - **US Tariff Rates**: The effective tariff rate on goods imports has seen significant changes, impacting countries like China (30% tariff) and Vietnam (20% tariff) [14][17] - **Export Implications**: Countries such as the UK and EU face substantial tariff impacts, with the EU's exports to the US valued at $606 billion, constituting 3.1% of GDP [17] 3. Subdued Global Inflation - **Core PCE Inflation**: The US core PCE inflation is projected at 2.8% for December 2025, with core goods inflation showing a significant increase from -0.1% in February 2025 to 1.4% in December 2025 [20][21] - **Global Inflation Trends**: Other regions are experiencing lower inflation rates, with core goods and services inflation remaining below the US levels [25][26] 4. Global Monetary Easing - **Policy Rate Changes**: Various countries are expected to lower their policy rates, with significant cuts anticipated in emerging markets [30] - **Market Reactions**: The Fed funds market pricing indicates expectations for continued easing in the US [31] 5. Advances in AI - **Investment Growth**: AI investment is projected to grow from $79 billion in Q4 2023 to $299 billion by Q3 2025, indicating a shift towards technology-driven productivity [34] - **Employee Adoption**: A Gallup survey indicates increasing employee usage of AI technologies, with a notable percentage of firms adopting AI solutions [34] Additional Insights - **Risks to Economic Outlook**: Potential risks include retrenchment in AI investments, geopolitical stresses, and a sharp deterioration in the US labor market [11][12] - **Public Debt Concerns**: High public debt levels in many countries are raising market concerns, particularly in the US where federal debt is projected to reach significant levels [42][43] - **Small Business Challenges**: Small firms are facing headwinds due to margin compression, policy uncertainty, and tightening credit conditions [40][41] This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the global economy and its various components.

Group 1 - Foreign institutions remain enthusiastic about A-shares, with 224 foreign institutions conducting 569 surveys of A-share listed companies as of February 9, 2026 [2][6] - Notable foreign institutions such as Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup are involved in these surveys [2][6] - Goldman Sachs maintains a "overweight" rating on Chinese stocks, predicting a 20% increase in the China index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 index [2][6] - UBS forecasts a significant rebound in the MSCI China index's earnings growth from 2.5% last year to 13.6% this year, primarily driven by technology stocks [2][6] - The top three companies attracting foreign interest are Huaming Equipment, Yingshi Innovation, and Huichuan Technology, with over 20 foreign institutions also researching companies like Aopt, Yihua, and Anji Technology [2][6] Group 2 - UBS Wealth Management's CIO office highlights the growth and profit potential of the Chinese market, driven by ongoing technological innovation and a favorable business environment [2][6] - The healthcare sector's international expansion, the rise of new consumption models, and the modernization of the power grid are expected to benefit industries such as healthcare, consumer goods, materials, and power equipment [2][6] Group 3 - In 2026, optimism for the Chinese stock market is maintained due to improving fundamentals and long-term growth drivers, which are expected to create a more sustainable structural growth cycle [3][7] - Key investment opportunities identified include industrial upgrades in electric vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and automation, with companies having strong R&D capabilities poised to meet market demands [3][7] - The trend of artificial intelligence is highlighted, with China emerging as a strong competitor in the global AI landscape, supported by a large internet user base, low energy costs, and abundant talent and data resources [3][7] - Changes in consumer preferences and demographic shifts are anticipated to lead to a significant transformation in the Chinese consumption market, with younger consumers increasingly spending on services and IP-related products [3][7]

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is likely to take a gradual approach to shrinking the central bank’s $6.6 trillion portfolio to avoid rekindling money market tensions, according to strategists at Citigroup Inc. Any attempt by the central bank to resume unwinding its balance sheet — a process known as quantitative tightening — could revive pressures in the $12.6 trillion repurchase market, the strategists said. The Fed abandoned the process in December after rates in the repo market ...

Industry Overview - The investment bank industry thrived in 2025 due to increased client activities, a rebound in underwriting and advisory businesses, a solid trading business, and significant application of artificial intelligence (AI) enhancing long-term efficiency [1] - The Zacks-defined Financial – Investment Bank industry ranks in the top 21% of the Zacks Industry Rank, with a return of 22.9% over the past year and a year-to-date return of 2.2%, indicating potential outperformance in the next three to six months [2] Company Analysis Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) - Goldman Sachs is focusing on core strengths in investment banking and trading while restructuring and reducing its consumer banking footprint [4] - The company is expanding in the private equity credit market to diversify its revenue base, with a solid liquidity profile supporting capital distribution activities [5] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Goldman Sachs are 8.6% and 10.3%, respectively, for the current year, with a 2.3% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [6][8] Citigroup Inc. (C) - Citigroup has seen benefits from increased net interest income and lower provisions, with transformation initiatives positioning revenues for growth [9] - The expansion into private credit enhances diversification, supported by a strong capital base for shareholder returns, with an expected return on tangible common equity of 10-11% by 2026 [10] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Citigroup are 5.4% and 28%, respectively, with a 1% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [12] Morgan Stanley (MS) - Morgan Stanley's focus on wealth and asset management, along with strategic alliances and acquisitions, is expected to drive top-line growth [13] - The acquisition of EquityZen will allow Morgan Stanley to tap into the growing private markets landscape, supported by a strong investment banking pipeline [13] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Morgan Stanley are 6% and 8.4%, respectively, with a 5.1% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [15]

Group 1 - The focus is on growth and dividend income as a strategy for retirement planning [1] - The portfolio is structured to generate monthly dividend income that grows through reinvestment and annual increases [1] Group 2 - The article expresses personal opinions and is not intended as investment advice [2] - It emphasizes the importance of conducting individual research before making investment decisions [2]

Core Insights - Citigroup's analyses highlight the resilience of global trade systems and the transformative role of technologies like artificial intelligence and blockchain in supply chain finance and the banking industry [1][9] Supply Chain Finance - Citi's 2026 outlook indicates steady adaptation in supply chain finance despite ongoing challenges, with global trade maintaining steady expansion over the past four years [2] - International commerce has been significantly restructured from 2019 to 2024 due to geopolitical tensions, leading to diversification in sourcing and new manufacturing hubs [3] - The United States has increased imports from alternative regions to mitigate risks, reflecting a shift in export patterns away from traditional powerhouses in North and East Asia [3] Technological Advancements - AI adoption in treasury management has surged, enhancing the management of financial flows and integrating with blockchain to streamline supply chain processes [4] - Citi collaborates with firms like PwC and Solana to explore the tokenization of trade instruments, aiming to improve liquidity and accessibility [5] - AI tools are automating credit assessments for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), addressing gaps in trade finance for these businesses [5] Banking Sector Trends - The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has led to a migration of deposits and market share towards larger banks, prompting a reevaluation of industry dynamics [6][7] - Regulatory responses have intensified, focusing on bolstering capital reserves and liquidity standards to enhance resilience against shocks [7] - Banks are investing in high-quality data infrastructures to optimize operations, driven by the need for efficiency in a competitive landscape [7][8] Strategic Agility - Experts from Citi emphasize the importance of strategic agility for maintaining financial stability amid ongoing shifts in the industry [9] - The interconnected progress in supply chain finance and banking suggests that embracing AI, diversification, and robust governance will be crucial for thriving in a volatile ecosystem [9][10]

花旗集团将雅诗兰黛评级从中性上调至买入后，该公司股价在盘前上涨1.7%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup executives are increasingly optimistic about completing compliance work related to major regulatory punishments, known as consent orders, by the end of this year [1] Group 1 - The company is making progress in addressing the requirements set forth in the consent orders [1] - There is a growing confidence among executives regarding the timeline for compliance completion [1] - The successful resolution of these compliance issues is expected to positively impact the company's operations and regulatory standing [1]

花旗集团将沃尔沃目标股价从 25 瑞典克朗下调至 17 瑞典克朗。 来源：滚动播报 ...