Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect Chubb (CB) to report quarterly earnings of $6.58 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.3%, with revenues projected at $15.11 billion, up 5.8% from the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - There have been no revisions in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analysts' forecasts [1][2] Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts predict 'Net premiums written - North American Personal P&C Insurance' to reach $1.75 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of +7.8% [4] - 'Net investment income - North America Commercial P&C Insurance' is expected to be $1.01 billion, reflecting an increase of +8.3% year-over-year [4] - The average forecast for 'Net premiums earned - Overseas General Insurance' is $3.73 billion, suggesting an increase of +8.6% from the prior-year quarter [4] Additional Financial Metrics - 'Net investment income - North American Personal P&C Insurance' is projected at $124.77 million, a change of +12.4% from the year-ago quarter [5] - The 'Combined ratio' is expected to reach 83.9%, down from 85.7% in the same quarter last year [5] - The consensus estimate for 'Loss and loss expense ratio' stands at 56.6%, compared to 59.4% reported in the same quarter of the previous year [5] Ratios and Performance Indicators - The 'North America Personal P&C Insurance - Loss and loss expense ratio' is estimated at 53.7%, down from 57.1% year-over-year [6] - The 'Policy acquisition cost ratio' is expected to remain stable at 20.0%, consistent with the previous year's figure [6] - The 'Administrative expense ratio' is projected at 5.5%, unchanged from the same quarter last year [7] - The 'Combined ratio' for North America Personal P&C Insurance is expected to be 79.2%, down from 82.6% year-over-year [7] Overseas Metrics - The 'Overseas General Insurance - Policy acquisition cost ratio' is estimated at 26.7%, slightly up from 26.0% in the same quarter last year [8] - The 'Overseas General Insurance - Administrative expense ratio' is projected at 9.9%, compared to 9.7% reported in the previous year [8] Stock Performance - Chubb shares have decreased by -2.7% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of +0.8% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Chubb (CB) has been identified as a top investment opportunity due to its consistent underwriting discipline, which has allowed it to outperform peers over the past decade [1]. Company Analysis - Chubb has demonstrated strong performance in the insurance sector, attributed to its steady underwriting practices [1]. - The company is part of a broader analysis conducted by a group focused on cash flows and capital access, indicating a strategic approach to investment [1]. Industry Context - The insurance and reinsurance sectors are highlighted, with a focus on the importance of underwriting discipline in achieving superior performance [1].

Core Viewpoint - Chubb (CB) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues, with the consensus outlook suggesting a positive earnings picture that could influence its stock price in the near term [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on February 3, and better-than-expected key numbers could lead to a stock price increase, while missing expectations may result in a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for Chubb's quarterly earnings is $6.58 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +9.3%, with revenues projected at $15.11 billion, up 5.8% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0% lower, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Chubb is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +0.84%, suggesting a bullish outlook from analysts [11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive Earnings ESP reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [9]. - Chubb currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Chubb exceeded the expected earnings of $5.94 per share by delivering $7.49, resulting in a surprise of +26.09% [12]. - The company has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters [13]. Industry Context - The Hartford Insurance Group (HIG), a peer in the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, is expected to report earnings of $3.17 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +7.8%, with revenues projected at $5.14 billion, up 7.4% [17]. - The Hartford's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.4% higher, but a lower Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -0.73%, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [18][19].

Group 1 - Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) is considered one of the best large cap value stocks to buy in 2026, with HSBC upgrading its rating to Buy and setting a price target of $354 [1] - Citizens has increased its price target for Chubb to $350 from $325 while maintaining an Outperform rating, anticipating reduced catastrophe losses and minimal mark-to-market effects in Q4 2025 [2] - Mizuho adjusted its price target for Chubb to $317 from $318 while maintaining a Neutral rating, reflecting a slight reduction after updating models across the insurance group [3] Group 2 - Chubb Limited provides a range of insurance and reinsurance products across six segments: North America Commercial P&C Insurance, North America Personal P&C Insurance, North America Agricultural Insurance, Overseas General Insurance, Global Reinsurance, and Life Insurance [4]

Core Insights - Wedgewood Partners anticipates stronger market volatility in the coming years and has moderated its enthusiasm for investments [1] - The Wedgewood Composite returned -1.8% in Q4 2025, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's 2.7%, Russell 1000 Growth Index's 1.1%, and Russell 1000 Value Index's 3.8% [1] - Year-to-date, the Composite gained 4.3%, significantly lower than the indexes' returns of 17.9%, 18.6%, and 15.9% respectively [1] - The underperformance is attributed to poor stock selection, valuation corrections of past strong performers, and being underweight in AI stocks [1] - In 2026, crowded AI investments and stretched valuations are expected to pressure prudent investment decisions [1] Company Focus: Chubb Limited - Wedgewood Partners initiated a new position in Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB), a leading provider in the property and casualty insurance industry [3] - As of January 16, 2026, Chubb Limited's stock closed at $300.77 per share, with a one-month return of -3.27% and a 52-week gain of 11.61% [2] - Chubb Limited has a market capitalization of $119.914 billion [2]

Group 1 - Chubb Limited is a global insurance company providing a wide range of insurance products and operates in 54 countries, making it one of the largest publicly traded property and casualty insurance companies in the world [1] - HSBC set a price target of $354 for Chubb, indicating a potential upside of approximately 18.02% from its current price of $299.96, reflecting confidence in Chubb's market position and growth prospects [2][6] - Chubb's market capitalization is approximately $119.6 billion, with a trading range over the past year between $263.14 and $316.94, indicating some volatility [5][6] Group 2 - Institutional investors are showing interest in Chubb, with Elevate Capital Advisors LLC purchasing 2,913 shares valued at approximately $822,000 during the third quarter [3] - Mitchell and Pahl Private Wealth LLC increased its holdings by 0.5%, now owning 7,381 shares valued at $2.08 million, while Sky Investment Group LLC expanded its stake by 1.6%, holding 2,397 shares worth $694,000 [4] - The current trading volume for Chubb is 540,249 shares, indicating active interest in the stock [5]

Core Viewpoint - Chubb Limited has received a rating upgrade from HSBC, indicating positive sentiment towards the company's future performance in the insurance sector [1][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Chubb Limited is a global insurance company offering a variety of products, including property and casualty, accident and health, reinsurance, and life insurance [1]. - The company is listed on the NYSE under the symbol CB and has a market capitalization of approximately $119.47 billion, showcasing its significant presence in the insurance industry [5][6]. Group 2: Recent Developments - HSBC upgraded Chubb from a Hold to a Buy rating, with the stock priced at $299.37 at the time of the upgrade [1][6]. - Elevate Capital Advisors LLC purchased 2,913 shares valued at approximately $822,000 during the third quarter, reflecting confidence in Chubb's future performance [2][6]. - Other institutional investors, such as Mitchell and Pahl Private Wealth LLC and Sky Investment Group LLC, have also increased their holdings in Chubb, indicating growing interest among hedge funds and institutional investors [3]. Group 3: Stock Performance - Chubb's current stock price is approximately $299.65, with a slight decrease of about 0.49% or $1.47 [4][6]. - The stock has experienced volatility, trading between a low of $263.14 and a high of $316.94 over the past year [4]. - Today's trading volume for Chubb on the NYSE is 265,650 shares, suggesting active investor interest [5].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance (P&C) industry is experiencing softer pricing after years of improvement, but is expected to benefit from prudent underwriting, exposure growth, and accelerated digitalization [1] - The industry includes companies providing commercial and personal property insurance, casualty insurance products, and services, with premiums being the primary revenue source [3] - The industry is currently ranked 173 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 29% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating weak prospects in the near term [8][9] Trends and Challenges - Global commercial insurance rates fell by 4% in Q3, marking a decline after seven years of rising rates, with personal auto insurance expected to perform strongly due to improved investment returns and reduced claims [4] - The property and casualty insurance industry is vulnerable to catastrophe events, which can negatively impact underwriting profits, with estimated insured losses from natural catastrophes reaching approximately $107 billion by 2025 [5] - Increased adoption of technology, including blockchain and AI, is transforming the industry, although it also introduces cyber threats [7] Company Insights - **Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)**: Focuses on complex, underserved risk segments and is well-positioned for growth, with a consensus estimate for 2026 earnings suggesting a 29.4% year-over-year growth [17][18] - **Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)**: Continues to grow through better pricing and strong renewal rates, with a consensus estimate for 2026 earnings indicating a 16.2% year-over-year growth [21][22] - **Hagerty Inc. (HGTY)**: A specialty insurer with a diversified model, expected to achieve 17.6% year-over-year growth in 2026 earnings [24][25] - **Chubb Limited (CB)**: One of the largest P&C insurers, focusing on middle-market businesses and cyber insurance, with a consensus estimate for 2026 earnings suggesting an 8.9% year-over-year growth [27][28] - **The Travelers Companies (TRV)**: A leading writer of auto and homeowners' insurance, expected to see a 6.9% year-over-year increase in 2026 earnings [30][32] Financial Performance - The Property and Casualty Insurance industry has underperformed compared to its sector and the S&P 500, with a collective stock increase of 6.9% versus 16.8% for the sector and 19.8% for the S&P 500 over the past year [10] - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.46X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 8.69X and the sector's 4.23X [13]

Industry Overview - Property and casualty insurance is one of the oldest modern industries and has structurally favorable economics, allowing for quiet compounding [1] Investment Focus - The focus is on identifying potential 5–10 baggers at the small- and mid-cap stage through careful fundamental analysis of businesses, financials, and valuations [1] - The emphasis is on early-commercial-stage life sciences companies, insurers, homebuilders, and select consumer-facing businesses [1]

Industry Overview - The insurance industry is experiencing soft pricing, with global commercial insurance rates declining by 4% in Q3 after seven years of increases [1] - Natural catastrophe losses are expected to reach approximately $107 billion by 2025, primarily due to events like LA wildfires and severe storms in the U.S. [2] - The combined ratio for the insurance sector is projected to improve to 98.5% in 2025, supported by increased exposure and prudent underwriting practices [2] Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) - Berkshire Hathaway operates as a diversified conglomerate with over 90 subsidiaries across various industries, with insurance being a key segment contributing about 25% of total revenues [4] - The company benefits from a float-driven model that enhances earnings and provides capital for investments, supported by a strong cash reserve exceeding $100 billion [5][7] - Despite a return on equity (ROE) of 7.3%, which is below the industry average of 8%, Berkshire has shown improvement over time [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BRK.B's 2026 revenues indicates a 6% year-over-year increase, while EPS is expected to decline by 4.2% [17] Chubb Limited (CB) - Chubb is a leading provider of property and casualty insurance, boasting a diversified business model that enhances earnings stability [11] - The company anticipates an 8.6% increase in EPS by 2026, contrasting with BRK.B's expected decline [10] - Chubb maintains one of the lowest combined ratios in the industry due to disciplined underwriting practices and strategic mergers and acquisitions [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CB's 2026 revenues suggests a 6.5% year-over-year decrease, while EPS is projected to rise by 8.6% [18] Comparative Analysis - Chubb outperforms Berkshire in terms of ROE and dividend growth, making it a more attractive investment option [10][24] - Berkshire's price-to-book multiple is 1.53, above its five-year median of 1.44, while Chubb's is 1.52, below its median of 1.56 [19] - Chubb has a solid dividend track record, increasing dividends for 32 consecutive years, with a current yield of 1.3%, compared to Berkshire's lack of dividends [23]