Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported a gross margin of $2.72 billion, an increase from $2.06 billion in 2024 and $2.55 billion in 2023 [54]. - The total sales volume for 2025 was 19,057 thousand tons, generating net sales of $7,084 million, compared to 18,943 thousand tons and $5,936 million in 2024 [54]. - CHS was the largest customer in 2025, accounting for approximately 13% of consolidated net sales [78]. Production and Capacity - The production volume for ammonia in 2025 was 10,120 thousand tons, an increase from 9,800 thousand tons in 2024 and 9,496 thousand tons in 2023 [58]. - The company operates eight manufacturing facilities in North America, with a combined production capacity representing approximately 40% of North American ammonia production capacity as of December 31, 2025 [55]. - The Donaldsonville facility has an estimated production capacity of 2.4 million to 3.3 million tons of granular urea and 1.2 million to 4.3 million tons of UAN annually [6]. - The Yazoo City facility's production capacity can reach 450,000 tons of UAN by reducing AN production to 900,000 tons [8]. - The company has a joint venture with Koch Fertilizer LLC at the Point Lisas facility, which has a capacity to produce 720,000 tons of ammonia annually [69]. Strategic Initiatives - The company completed its first sales of low-carbon ammonia in 2025, achieving a premium price compared to traditional ammonia, with expectations for continued demand growth in Europe and Africa [33]. - The Blue Point joint venture, formed in April 2025, involves a 40% ownership by the company, with JERA and Mitsui holding 35% and 25%, respectively, focusing on low-carbon ammonia production [49]. - The company is engaged in discussions for long-term offtake agreements related to low-carbon ammonia, indicating a strategic focus on expanding its market presence [35]. - The company has a long-term ammonia offtake agreement to supply up to 200,000 tons of ammonia per year to IPL's Dyno Nobel, Inc. subsidiary as part of the Waggaman acquisition [48]. Environmental and Regulatory Compliance - Environmental, health, and safety capital expenditures totaled approximately $37 million in 2025, with an estimated $46 million planned for 2026 [86]. - The excess emissions fee under Canadian regulations is CAD $110 per metric ton for 2026, increasing by CAD $15 per metric ton annually, reaching CAD $170 per metric ton by 2030 [90]. - The company is subject to GHG regulations in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom, with increasing stringency expected in the coming years [90]. - The company anticipates that more stringent GHG regulations may materially adversely affect its business, financial condition, and results of operations [94]. Workforce and Safety - As of December 31, 2025, the company employed approximately 2,900 employees, with 80% located in the United States, 14% in Canada, and 6% in the United Kingdom [98]. - The company reported a 12-month rolling recordable incident rate (RIR) of 0.26 incidents per 200,000 work hours as of December 31, 2025, with a total recordable injury/illness count of eight for the year [99]. - The company has approximately 5% of its workforce covered by collective bargaining agreements as of December 31, 2025 [98]. - The company is dedicated to creating a workplace culture of inclusion and engagement, investing in recruitment, training, and professional development [96]. Financial Instruments and Costs - The company holds senior notes totaling $3.25 billion in principal outstanding, with maturity dates ranging from March 15, 2034, to March 15, 2044 [447]. - A $1.00 per MMBtu change in the price of natural gas would affect the cost to produce a ton of ammonia by approximately $32 [443]. - As of December 31, 2025, the company had open natural gas derivative contracts covering 13.5 million MMBtus, with a favorable change in fair value of approximately $13 million for a $1.00 per MMBtu increase in prices [445]. - In 2025, natural gas accounted for approximately 34% of the total production costs, with the facilities consuming about 350 million MMBtus of natural gas [70][71]. Facility Operations - The company acquired an ammonia production facility in Waggaman, Louisiana, on December 1, 2023, for a purchase price of $1.675 billion, with a nameplate capacity of 880,000 tons of ammonia annually [48]. - The company plans to permanently close the ammonia plant at the Billingham facility, which had previously been idled since September 2022 [68]. - The company expects production at the Yazoo City facility to resume no earlier than Q4 2026 due to an incident that required temporary idling [66]. Seasonal Business Dynamics - The fertilizer business is seasonal, with the highest demand occurring during the spring planting season and the fall harvest [84].

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CF Industries (NYSE:CF) 2026 Conference February 25, 2026 09:45 AM ET Company ParticipantsBert Frost - EVP and CCO in Sales, Market Development, and Supply ChainMartin Jarosick - VP in Treasury and Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsNone - AnalystModeratorWelcome back, everybody. We'll get started. I'm sure people will continue to file in. With me today, we have Bert Frost, the EVP and Chief Commercial Officer of CF, and Martin Jarosick, VP Treasury and Investor Relations. Bert, you know, you're ...

Core Viewpoint - Analyzing the valuation of CF Industries using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) framework is challenging due to the dependency of cash flows on various factors [1] Group 1 - CF Industries' cash flow forecasts are essential for a DCF model, indicating the complexity in valuation analysis [1]

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries is perceived to have strong fundamentals and long-term growth potential despite a falling valuation, indicating a misunderstanding in the market regarding the company's true value [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - CF Industries has been upgraded to a Strong Buy due to its solid fundamentals and growth prospects [1]. - The company operates in the commodities sector, with a focus on fertilizers, which is critical for agricultural productivity [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has over a decade of experience researching various industries, including commodities and technology, which enhances the credibility of the analysis [1]. - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to creating a value investing-focused YouTube channel, indicating a commitment to providing in-depth research [1]. Group 3: Investment Focus - The analyst expresses a preference for covering metals and mining stocks but is also knowledgeable in other sectors such as consumer discretionary, REITs, and utilities [1].

Core Insights - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported quarterly earnings that exceeded expectations, with an EPS of $2.59, surpassing analysts' estimates of $2.53 by $0.06 [3][6] - The company achieved revenue of $1.87 billion, which is a 22.8% increase compared to the same quarter last year and above the expected $1.78 billion [3][6] - CIBC has set a new price target of $100 for CF Industries, indicating a potential upside of 3.87% from its current trading price of $96.27 [1][6] Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, CF's stock surged by 7.2%, reaching a high of $105.27 during mid-day trading [2][6] - The trading volume was 1.57 million shares, which represents a 31% decline from the average daily volume of 2.26 million shares [2] - The current stock price is $96.48, reflecting a decrease of 2.99% or $2.98 from previous trading [4] Financial Metrics - The company's return on equity is reported at 19.95%, with a net margin of 20.54%, indicating efficient management and profitability [4] - Over the past year, CF Industries' stock has fluctuated between a high of $104.45 and a low of $67.34, suggesting a promising outlook based on strong financial results [5]

CF Industries (NYSE:CF) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 19, 2026 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBert Frost - SVP of Sales and Market DevelopmentChris Bohn - President and CEOMartin Jarosick - Vice President of Investor RelationsRich Hoker - VP of Interim CFO and Chief Accounting OfficerConference Call ParticipantsAndrew Wong - Equity Research AnalystBen Theurer - Equity Research AnalystChristopher Parkinson - Equity Research AnalystDavid Simmons - Equity Research AnalystEdlain Rodriguez - Equity Research An ...

CF Industries (NYSE:CF) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 19, 2026 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBert Frost - SVP of Sales and Market DevelopmentChris Bohn - President and CEOMartin Jarosick - Vice President of Investor RelationsRich Hoker - VP of Interim CFO and Chief Accounting OfficerConference Call ParticipantsAndrew Wong - Equity Research AnalystBen Theurer - Equity Research AnalystChristopher Parkinson - Equity Research AnalystDavid Simmons - Equity Research AnalystEdlain Rodriguez - Equity Research An ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.9 billion, net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $1.5 billion, or $8.97 per diluted share [4][12] - In the fourth quarter of 2025, net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $404 million, or $2.59 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $821 million [12][14] - The company generated net cash from operations of $2.75 billion and free cash flow of approximately $1.8 billion in 2025, returning $1.7 billion to shareholders [6][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company produced 10.1 million tons of gross ammonia in 2025, achieving a 97% utilization rate, although production is expected to decrease to approximately 9.5 million tons in 2026 due to the Yazoo City incident [4][5] - The Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui is progressing well, with plans to begin civil work at the site in the second quarter of 2026 [5][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global nitrogen market remains tighter than expected, with strong demand from India, Brazil, and North America, while supply is constrained by natural gas availability and geopolitical concerns [8][10] - Urea prices are currently trading well above historical levels, with North American ammonia pricing at $450 per short ton, which is $100 higher than in December 2025 [9][43] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to its capital allocation framework, focusing on growth investments and returning capital to long-term shareholders [6][7] - There is a strong emphasis on low-carbon ammonia and nitrogen products, with increasing demand from customers seeking to meet sustainability goals [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to generate substantial free cash flow, supported by high-margin business and strategic initiatives [6][18] - The outlook for the nitrogen market remains positive, with expectations of continued high demand and limited new supply [10][44] Other Important Information - The company recorded two impairment charges totaling $76 million in the fourth quarter, related to the electrolyzer pilot project and the Yazoo City incident [12][13] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to total approximately $1.3 billion, with $950 million allocated for sustaining CapEx and the Blue Point joint venture [13][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: About the pace of spending at the Blue Point project - The overall expenditure for Blue Point remains forecasted at $3.7 billion, with no changes in costs but updated timing for cash flow outflows [20][22] Question: On CBAM and its impact on the business - CBAM is seen as an opportunity, with European customers showing interest in low-carbon products, and any changes to CBAM could still benefit the company due to its low-carbon offerings [29][31] Question: Regarding the Yazoo City plant restart - The ammonium nitrate plant is the only one affected, and the company aims to restart it as soon as possible, with an estimated EBITDA impact of $200 million for 2026 [33][35] Question: Current market tightness and pricing outlook - The market is expected to remain tight due to high demand and limited supply, with pricing likely to stay elevated in the near term [38][42] Question: On the Blue Point project and its future expansion - The focus remains on the first site, but there is potential for future expansion given the infrastructure being built [24][25] Question: Affordability issues in nitrogen pricing - The company is aware of affordability issues and is studying the economics to ensure they remain part of the solution for farmers [90][92]

2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results February 18, 2026 NYSE: CF Safe harbor statement All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the "Company"), other than those relating to historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such as "anticipate," "believe," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "plan," "predict," "project," "will" or "would" and simil ...