Group 1 - Union Pacific has appointed W. Anthony "Tony" Will to its board of directors, effective January 5 [1] - Will has been the president, CEO, and board member of CF Industries Holdings since 2014 and plans to retire on January 4, serving in an advisory role until March 15 [1][4] - Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern expect to file their formal merger application with federal regulators on December 19 [3] Group 2 - Tony Will has a strong background in the industry, having joined CF Industries in 2007 and held various leadership positions [4] - Will's previous experience includes being a partner at Accenture and holding positions at Sears, Fort James Corp., Boston Consulting Group, and Motorola [4] - Will holds a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering from Iowa State University and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University [5]

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is focusing on decarbonizing ammonia production to support low-carbon solutions across various sectors, despite facing stock price volatility and market challenges [1]. Company Overview - CF Industries is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, and specializes in manufacturing hydrogen and nitrogen products [1]. - The company has a market capitalization of nearly $12.4 billion, indicating its status as a large-cap entity, with manufacturing assets located in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom [2]. Stock Performance - CF's stock price has shown significant volatility, trading 24.2% below its June peak of $104.45 and declining almost 7.5% over the past three months, while the Nasdaq Composite has advanced 4.8% during the same period [3]. - Over the past 52 weeks, CF's shares have dropped 12.1%, with a year-to-date increase of only 7.2%, contrasting with the Nasdaq's gains of 16.5% and 20.1% respectively [4]. Earnings Report - In Q3 2025, CF Industries reported a revenue increase of 21.1% year over year to $1.66 billion, matching market estimates, while EPS rose 41.3% to $2.19, exceeding forecasts [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA also increased by 30.5% year over year to $667 million, but investor sentiment remained cautious due to underlying market conditions [6]. Market Challenges - The company is facing a tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance, geopolitical risks, and concerns regarding natural gas availability, which are affecting investor confidence [6]. - Regulatory uncertainties, particularly regarding the European Union's carbon border adjustment mechanism, and operational challenges due to significant maintenance activities have further constrained production volumes [7].

European Companies - BASF Group reported Q3 2025 sales of €15.23 billion (approximately $17.7 billion), down 3.2% year-on-year from €15.739 billion. Operating profit (EBIT) increased by 11.4% to €278 million, while net profit fell by 40% to €172 million [1] - LyondellBasell's Q3 2025 sales and other revenues were $7.727 billion, down from $8.604 billion year-on-year. The company reported a net loss of $890 million compared to a net profit of $573 million in the same period last year [2] - INEOS Group Holdings reported Q3 2025 revenue of €3.418 billion (approximately $3.97 billion), down from €4.273 billion year-on-year. Operating profit decreased to €113 million from €339 million, with a net loss of €56.5 million compared to a profit of €283 million last year [3] - Evonik Group's Q3 2025 sales were €3.391 billion (approximately $3.94 billion), down from €3.832 billion year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA fell to €448 million from €577 million, with a net loss of €106 million compared to a net profit of €223 million [4] - Covestro reported Q3 2025 sales of €3.171 billion (approximately $3.68 billion), down 12% from €3.603 billion. EBITDA decreased by 15.7% to €242 million, with a net loss of €47 million compared to a net profit of €33 million last year [5] - DSM-Firmenich's Q3 2025 sales were €3.07 billion (approximately $3.57 billion), down 5% from €3.244 billion. Adjusted EBITDA remained stable at €540 million [6] - Sika reported Q3 2025 sales of CHF 3.078 billion (approximately $3.4 billion), down 3.8% from CHF 3.915 billion. EBITDA decreased to CHF 1.645 billion from CHF 1.702 billion, with net profit falling to CHF 871 million from CHF 923 million [8] - Henkel's Q3 2025 sales fell by 6.3% to €5.147 billion, with the adhesives technology division reporting sales of approximately $3.145 billion, down 3.3% year-on-year [9] - Arkema's Q3 2025 sales were €2.187 billion (approximately $2.54 billion), down 8.6% from €2.394 billion. EBITDA fell by 23.8% to €310 million, with adjusted net profit down 53.6% to €78 million [10] - Syensqo reported Q3 2025 sales of €1.517 billion (approximately $1.76 billion), down 7.1% from €1.633 billion. EBITDA decreased by 12.8% to €326 million, with net profit down 31.8% to €110 million [11] - LANXESS reported Q3 2025 sales of €1.338 billion (approximately $1.55 billion), down 16.3% from €1.598 billion. EBITDA fell by 35.6% to €105 million, with a net loss of €77 million compared to a profit of €1 million last year [12] - Solvay's Q3 2025 sales were €1.044 billion (approximately $1.21 billion), down 9.7% from €1.156 billion. EBITDA decreased by 10.3% to €232 million, with net profit down 15% to €88 million [13] - Clariant reported Q3 2025 sales of CHF 906 million (approximately $1.03 billion), down 9% from CHF 991 million. EBITDA increased by 14% to CHF 159 million [14] Asian Companies - Rongsheng Petrochemical reported Q3 2025 revenue of ¥79.185 billion (approximately $11.2 billion), down 5.67% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥286 million, up 1427.94% [15] - SABIC's Q3 2025 revenue was SAR 34.333 billion (approximately $9.147 billion), down from SAR 36.88 billion year-on-year. Operating profit decreased to SAR 1.663 billion from SAR 2.477 billion, with net profit falling to SAR 1.135 billion from SAR 1.763 billion [16] - Hengli Petrochemical reported Q3 2025 revenue of ¥53.496 billion (approximately $7.67 billion), down 17.98% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥1.972 billion, up 81.47% [17] - Wanhua Chemical reported Q3 2025 revenue of ¥53.324 billion (approximately $7.54 billion), up 5.52% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥3.035 billion, up 3.96% [18] - Mitsubishi Chemical Group reported H1 2025 revenue of ¥1,799.124 billion (approximately $11.5 billion), down 10.5% year-on-year. Operating profit decreased by 19.6% to ¥86.489 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders up 169% to ¥110.132 billion [19] - Taiwan Chemical announced Q3 2025 revenue of NT$69.576 billion (approximately $2.22 billion), down from NT$86.899 billion. The company reported a net profit of NT$1.78 billion, compared to a net loss of NT$1.918 billion last year [20] - Nanya Plastics reported Q3 2025 revenue of NT$64.2 billion (approximately $2.04 billion), down from NT$66.4 billion. Operating profit increased to NT$1.04 billion from NT$990 million, with net profit rising to NT$4 billion from NT$490 million [21] - Formosa Plastics reported Q3 2025 revenue of NT$41.718 billion (approximately $1.33 billion), down from NT$50.492 billion. The company reported a net loss of NT$2.685 billion, compared to a loss of NT$3.092 billion last year [22] - Asahi Kasei Corporation reported H1 2025 revenue of ¥1,486.368 billion (approximately $9.54 billion), down slightly from ¥1,490.334 billion. Operating profit increased to ¥108.915 billion from ¥107.454 billion, while net profit decreased to ¥60.248 billion from ¥66.266 billion [23] - Dongfang Shenghong reported Q3 2025 revenue of ¥31.245 billion (approximately $4.5 billion), down 11.91% year-on-year. The company reported a net loss of ¥260 million [24] - Shin-Etsu Chemical reported H1 2025 revenue of ¥1,284.522 billion (approximately $8.24 billion), up 1.4% year-on-year. Operating profit decreased by 17.7% to ¥333.935 billion, with net profit down 12.3% to ¥257.844 billion [25] - Toray reported H1 2025 revenue of ¥1,234.31 billion (approximately $7.92 billion), down 4.6% year-on-year. Operating profit decreased by 19.1% to ¥642.99 billion, with net profit down 33.5% to ¥369.35 billion [26] - Hengyi Petrochemical reported Q3 2025 revenue of ¥27.925 billion (approximately $3.95 billion), down 7.07% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥4.4079 million, up 102.21% [27] - LG Chem reported Q3 2025 sales of ₩111.962 trillion (approximately $76.24 billion), down 11.3% from ₩126.2 trillion. Operating profit increased by 38.9% to ₩6.797 trillion, while net profit fell to ₩4.470 trillion from ₩10.13 trillion [28] American Companies - Dow reported Q3 2025 net sales of $9.973 billion, down from $10.879 billion year-on-year. Net profit attributable to common shareholders was $62 million, down from $214 million [36] - Ecolab reported Q3 2025 net sales of $4.165 billion, up from $3.999 billion year-on-year. Operating profit decreased by 27% to $760 million, with net profit down 21% to $585 million [37] - DuPont reported Q3 2025 net sales of $3.072 billion, up from $2.862 billion year-on-year. The company reported a net loss of $123 million, compared to a profit of $455 million last year [39] - Westlake Corporation reported Q3 2025 net sales of $2.838 billion, down from $3.117 billion. The company reported an operating loss of $766 million, compared to a profit of $180 million last year [40] - IFF reported Q3 2025 net sales of $2.694 billion, down from $2.925 billion year-on-year. Operating profit decreased by 9% to $226 million, with net profit down to $40 million from $58 million [41] - Celanese reported Q3 2025 net sales of $2.419 billion, down from $2.648 billion. The company reported an operating loss of $1.275 billion, compared to a profit of $245 million last year [42] - Eastman Chemical Company reported Q3 2025 sales of $2.202 billion, down from $2.464 billion. Net profit attributable to the company was $47 million, down from $180 million [43] - Huntsman Corporation reported Q3 2025 revenue of $1.46 billion, down from $1.54 billion. The company reported a net loss of $25 million, compared to a loss of $33 million last year [44] Industrial Gases - Linde plc reported Q3 2025 sales of $8.615 billion, up from $8.356 billion year-on-year. Operating profit increased to $2.367 billion from $2.086 billion, with net profit rising to $1.929 billion from $1.55 billion [45] - Air Liquide reported Q3 2025 revenue of €6.599 billion (approximately $7.66 billion), down from €6.762 billion year-on-year [46] - Air Products & Chemicals reported Q4 2025 sales of $3.167 billion, down from $3.188 billion. The company reported an operating profit of $16.8 million, down from $242.4 million last year, with a net profit of $4.9 million compared to $195 million [47] Crop Science - Syngenta Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of $6.4 billion, down 6% year-on-year. EBITDA increased by 28% to $900 million [48] - Bayer Group reported Q3 2025 sales of €9.66 billion, down from €9.968 billion. EBIT loss was €543 million, compared to a loss of €382.2 million last year, with a net loss of €963 million compared to a loss of €4.183 billion last year [49] - Corteva, Inc. reported Q3 2025 net sales of $2.618 billion, up from $2.326 billion year-on-year. The company reported a net loss of $320 million, compared to a loss of $524 million last year [50] Fertilizers - Nutrien reported Q3 2025 sales of $6.007 billion, up from $5.348 billion year-on-year. Net profit increased to $469 million from $25 million [51] - Yara International ASA reported Q3 2025 revenue of $4.108 billion, up from $3.654 billion. Operating profit increased to $470 million from $309 million, with net profit rising to $320 million from $286 million [52] - The Mosaic Company reported Q3 2025 net sales of $3.452 billion, up from $2.811 billion. Operating profit increased to $340 million from $115 million, with net profit rising to $411 million from $122 million [53] - CF Industries reported Q3 2025 net sales of $1.659 billion, up from $1.37 billion. Net profit attributable to common shareholders was $353 million, compared to $276 million last year [54] Coatings - PPG Industries reported Q3 2025 net sales of $4.082 billion, up from $4.032 billion year-on-year, with net profit remaining stable at $444 million [55] - AkzoNobel reported Q3 2025 revenue of €2.547 billion (approximately $2.96 billion), down from €2.668 billion. The company reported an operating loss of €29 million, compared to a profit of €259 million last year, with a net loss of €194 million compared to a profit of €163 million last year [56] - Nippon Paint Holdings reported YTD revenue of ¥1,318.378 billion (approximately $8.467 billion), up 7.8% year-on-year. Operating profit increased by 36.4% to ¥190.579 billion, with net profit rising by 38.6% to ¥134.336 billion [57] - Sherwin-Williams reported Q3 2025 net sales of $6.358 billion, up from $6.163 billion. Net profit increased to $833 million from $806 million, with the paint retail group reporting sales of $3.837 billion, up 5.1% [58] - Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. reported Q3 2025 net sales of $1.288 billion, down from $1.32 billion. Operating profit increased to $204 million from $193 million, with net profit rising to $110 million from $101 million [59] - Three Trees reported YTD revenue of ¥9.392 billion (approximately $1.33 billion), up 2.69% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥744 million, up 81.22% [60]

Core Insights - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is recognized as one of the 14 best US stocks for long-term investment [1] - CIBC initiated coverage on CF Industries with a Neutral rating and a price target of $87 [2] Financial Performance - The company reported a trailing twelve-month operating cash flow of $2.63 billion and free cash flow of $1.7 billion [3] - In the third quarter, CF Industries repurchased 4.3 million shares for $364 million, completing a $3 billion share repurchase program authorized in 2022 [3] Production and Growth - For the first nine months of the fiscal year, CF Industries produced 7.6 million tons of gross ammonia, an increase from 7.2 million tons in the same period last year [4] - The company anticipates gross ammonia production to reach approximately 10 million tons for FY25 [4] Strategic Initiatives - CF Industries is heavily investing in decarbonizing production through the development of low-carbon ammonia, which has contributed to high shareholder returns [3] - The company manufactures and distributes hydrogen and nitrogen products for clean energy, fertilizers, and other industrial applications [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the best American stocks for long-term investment, emphasizing the shift in investor strategies towards diversification and away from traditional portfolios [1][2] Long-term Investment Trends - A significant portion of investors, approximately 60%, believe that long-term discipline is essential in today's market, with 70% expressing greater patience for investment growth compared to their initial investing experiences [2] - The trend towards dividend investing aligns with long-term strategies, as 80.9% of S&P 500 companies pay dividends, with an average yield of 1.93% among Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents [3] Methodology for Stock Selection - The article outlines a methodology for selecting US companies that provide regular dividends, focusing on those with over 9% revenue growth over five years and positive analyst sentiment, resulting in a list of 14 hedge fund-favored companies [6][7] Company Highlights - **Atmos Energy Corporation (NYSE:ATO)**: - Holds 32 hedge fund positions and has a 5-year revenue growth of 9.92% - Recently increased its quarterly dividend by 15%, marking 41 consecutive years of dividend growth, with capital expenditures of $3.6 billion in FY25, primarily for safety and reliability [8][10][11] - **CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF)**: - Holds 41 hedge fund positions and boasts a 5-year revenue growth of 15.96% - Focused on decarbonizing production with low-carbon ammonia, reporting a trailing twelve-month operating cash flow of $2.63 billion and free cash flow of $1.7 billion [12][13][14] - **Diamondback Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FANG)**: - Holds 42 hedge fund positions with a remarkable 5-year revenue growth of 36.06% - Benefits from low-cost production in the Permian Basin, generating 15% higher free cash flow per share despite a 14% decline in oil prices, and is nearing its $1.5 billion net debt target [15][17][18]

Group 1 - The event is focused on the agricultural space, highlighting the importance of agriculture and its close ties to the speaker's personal background [1] - The discussion includes the presence of the CF team, indicating a collaborative effort and long-standing relationship with the company over 25 years [1] - The timing of the event is set early in the morning, reflecting the nature of the agricultural industry where farmers typically start their day early [1] Group 2 - There are required disclosures regarding Goldman Sachs' relationships with companies discussed, including investment banking relationships and ownership stakes [2] - The firm is prepared to provide disclosures upon request, ensuring transparency in their communications with clients [2] - Recent reports containing these disclosures are available on the firm's client portal, emphasizing the importance of accessibility to information for clients [2]

Summary of CF Industries 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: CF Industries (NYSE: CF) - **Industry**: Fertilizer and Agricultural Products Key Points Market Dynamics - The fertilizer market is characterized by global competition and seasonal demand, with most countries having one application per year [3][4] - The year 2025 saw significant surprises affecting supply and demand, primarily due to geopolitical events such as the war impacting production [5][6] - A lack of supply was noted, with approximately 2 million tons removed from the market due to the war and other production issues [6][11] - Urea prices peaked at nearly $500 per ton in June 2025, driven by supply constraints and high demand from regions like India and Brazil [7][11] Farmer Economics - Farmer economics have been under pressure, but the situation is not dire enough to warrant extreme measures like Farm Aid [13][14] - Revenue guarantee programs and crop insurance have helped maintain cash flow for farmers, particularly in the Midwest [15][16] - The corn-soybean ratio and crop planting decisions are critical for future demand, with corn expected to remain a favored crop [17][19] Supply and Demand Outlook - The market is entering 2026 with a more moderated pricing environment, with ammonia and urea prices around $360 per ton [11][12] - Inventory levels are low, with only 30%-50% of spring fertilizer needs purchased by retailers, compared to the usual 70% [28][30] - A potential drop of 5-6 million acres of corn could act as a speed bump for demand, but the overall market position remains strong [24][25] Global Supply Chain Challenges - Unplanned supply disruptions have been significant in 2025, with various global production issues affecting supply [31][32] - The resolution of the Ukraine-Russia conflict could potentially alter the global supply-demand balance for nitrogen, but the extent of recovery remains uncertain [34][36] Low-Carbon Initiatives - CF Industries is actively pursuing low-carbon ammonia production, with significant interest from Asian and European markets [52][54] - The company has established contracts and partnerships to ensure demand for low-carbon products as production ramps up [56][60] Capital Allocation Strategy - CF Industries plans to maintain disciplined capital allocation, focusing on investing in existing assets and returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks [77][78] - The company has repurchased over half of its shares since 2010, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder value [78][82] Future Outlook - The fertilizer industry is expected to remain dynamic, with CF Industries well-positioned to adapt to changes and capitalize on opportunities [80][81] - The company does not plan to diversify away from nitrogen but remains open to exploring strategic opportunities within the agricultural sector [83][84] Additional Insights - The demand for nitrogen in India has seen a positive trend, with consistent tendering for imports [46][48] - North African markets are growing, with Morocco showing potential for increased demand for low-carbon products [50][51] - The competitive landscape for ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen remains fluid, with ammonia currently favored for shipping due to its versatility [62][64]

Core Points - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. will present at the Goldman Sachs Industrials & Materials Conference 2025 on December 4, 2025, at 8:00 am ET [1] - Investors can access the live conference webcast through the Investor Relations section of the company's website [1] - A replay of the webcast will be available for 180 days following the event [1]

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is highlighted as a potentially undervalued stock in the nitrogen fertilizer sector, with strong fundamentals and a competitive position in the market [1][12]. Business Overview - CF Industries operates nitrogen manufacturing complexes in the U.S. and the U.K., benefiting from scale, low-cost natural gas, and export access [2]. - The company generates substantial free cash flow across cycles, despite fluctuations in fertilizer demand driven by crop prices and natural gas costs [2]. Financial Metrics - CF's intrinsic value to price (IV/P) ratio is 1.10, indicating that its intrinsic value is approximately 10% higher than its current market price, suggesting undervaluation [5]. - Key financial metrics include a market cap of approximately US$ 12.75 billion, an enterprise value estimated between US$ 18 billion and US$ 19 billion, and a free cash flow of about US$ 1.71 billion [6]. Revenue & Profitability - For the trailing twelve months (TTM), CF reported revenue of US$ 6.73 billion, operating income of US$ 2.09 billion, and a net income of US$ 1.38 billion, reflecting a net margin of approximately 20% [7]. - The company maintains double-digit margins and strong earnings despite a downturn from the 2022 fertilizer boom [7]. Balance Sheet Strength - CF's balance sheet shows cash and equivalents of approximately US$ 1.84 billion, total debt of about US$ 3.40 billion, and shareholders' equity of around US$ 4.85 billion, indicating manageable leverage and ample liquidity [8]. - The cash generation supports debt servicing, dividends, and buybacks, essential for its capital-intensive operations [8]. Capital Returns - CF has a dividend yield of approximately 2.5% and has repurchased about US$ 1.4 billion in shares over the TTM, demonstrating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [10]. - The aggressive buyback strategy is a key driver of intrinsic value growth [10]. Investment Thesis - CF is positioned as a durable, cash-generating business with a competitive cost structure and strong free cash flow, trading at a discount to its intrinsic value [12]. - The company is seen as undervalued due to market assumptions of declining future profitability, despite its ability to compound capital at attractive rates [11][12]. Industry Context - Global nitrogen demand is structurally linked to population growth and food needs, providing a steady market for CF's products [15]. - North American gas cost advantages create a competitive moat for CF against higher-cost international producers [15].

Core Insights - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is recognized as one of the 15 Best Stocks to Buy for the Medium Term [1] - Wells Fargo has initiated coverage on CF Industries with an Overweight rating and a price target of $100, slightly below the previous target of $105 [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, CF Industries reported revenue of $1.66 billion, a 21.09% increase year-over-year, exceeding analysts' estimates by $4.41 million [3] - The company achieved net earnings of $353 million, or $2.19 per diluted share, with EBITDA at $671 million and adjusted EBITDA at $667 million [3] - CF completed its $3 billion share repurchase program authorized in 2022 and initiated a new $2 billion repurchase program in October 2025 [3] Production and Strategy - Gross ammonia production for the first nine months of 2025 was approximately 7.6 million tons, up from 7.2 million tons in the same period of 2024 [5] - Q3 production was about 2.4 million tons, consistent with the previous year [5] - The company anticipates full-year 2025 gross ammonia output to reach around 10 million tons [5] - CF Industries has made significant progress in its clean energy strategy, securing premium pricing for its first certified low-carbon ammonia cargoes and receiving 45Q tax credits [4] - Management indicated that financial returns from low-carbon ammonia and decarbonization investments remain strong for shareholders [4]