Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues when it releases its results for the quarter ended December 2025 [1] Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is expected on February 9, and positive results could lead to a stock price increase, while negative results may cause a decline [2] - The consensus estimate indicates a quarterly loss of $0.62 per share, reflecting an 8.8% year-over-year change, with revenues projected at $4.62 billion, up 6.8% from the previous year [3] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 17.39% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for Cleveland-Cliffs is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +0.81% [12] Earnings Surprise Prediction - A positive Earnings ESP reading suggests a likely earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3, which historically leads to a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time [10] - Cleveland-Cliffs currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a reasonable chance of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Cleveland-Cliffs was expected to post a loss of $0.48 per share but actually reported a loss of -$0.45, resulting in a surprise of +6.25% [13] - Over the past four quarters, the company has exceeded consensus EPS estimates twice [14] Conclusion - While an earnings beat may influence stock movement, other factors can also play a significant role in stock performance [15] - Monitoring Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank is crucial for making informed investment decisions ahead of earnings releases [16]

Group 1 - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) is recognized for producing flat-rolled and specialty steel products, including stainless, electrical, and tubular steels, as well as iron ore and hot-briquetted iron [2] - The company has experienced a positive performance recently, but there is a preference for Nucor due to its superior operational capabilities and favorable balance sheet [1][2] - Nucor is viewed as a better investment opportunity compared to Cleveland-Cliffs, particularly because it is less leveraged to the automotive sector and has a strong expansion plan [2] Group 2 - There is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk compared to Cleveland-Cliffs [3]

Summary of J.P. Morgan North America Metals & Mining 2026 Buy-Side Sentiment Survey Industry Overview - The survey focuses on the Metals & Mining (M&M) sector, with insights into investor sentiment for 2026 based on responses from 25 investors, divided into 72% Long Onlys (LOs) and 28% Hedge Funds (HFs) [1][12]. Key Findings Sector Rankings - **Copper** is the top-ranked sub-sector for 2026, followed by **Gold**. **Steel** has dropped significantly from 2nd to 7th place [1]. - **Copper** is also the top-ranked commodity, while **Rare Earths** and **Steel** have both seen a decline in their rankings [1]. - **Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)** is identified as the top long investment due to its strong correlation with copper prices (~95%) and exposure to gold pricing [1][6]. - **Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)** is viewed as the top short investment due to high debt levels and tariff challenges [1][6]. Investor Sentiment - 72% of investors expect the M&M sector to outperform the broader market in 2026, a significant increase from 41% in the previous survey [1][12]. - The primary themes influencing sector performance are **trade policy and protectionism**, and **onshoring and supply security** [1][16]. Tariff Expectations - 78% of participants anticipate some form of **S232 tariff relief** in 2026, with 72% expecting partial relief [1][19]. - 61% expect exemptions for Mexico and Canada, while 39% foresee country-specific exemptions [1][19]. M&A Activity - A significant 84% of participants expect an increase in M&A activity within the M&M sector in 2026, up from 50% in the prior survey [1][80]. Commodity and Stock Preferences Copper - FCX is again ranked as the best-performing copper stock, with 83% of participants favoring it [1][64]. - Concerns about potential near-term corrections in copper prices were noted, alongside positive sentiment regarding the restart of Grasberg's operations [1][6]. Steel - Investor sentiment towards steel has weakened, with CMC emerging as the best-performing steel stock due to its high-margin precast business and favorable trade policies [1][60]. Aluminum - **Alcoa (AA)** is expected to be the best-performing aluminum stock, with 63% of votes, followed by downstream players CSTM and KALU [1][71]. Rare Earths and Uranium - **MP Materials (MP)** is viewed as the best-performing stock in the rare earths/lithium/uranium sector, receiving 56% of the votes [1][76]. Underappreciated Themes - Several themes were identified as potentially underappreciated, including: - Valuations relative to the AI ecosystem - Copper demand related to power sectors - Supply and demand dynamics in uranium [1][84]. Conclusion - The survey indicates a bullish outlook for the M&M sector in 2026, driven by strong expectations for copper and gold, alongside anticipated tariff relief and increased M&A activity. Investors are advised to consider these dynamics when making investment decisions in the sector [1][12][80].

Core Viewpoint - The article summarizes significant analyst rating changes that are expected to impact the market, highlighting upgrades, downgrades, and new coverage ratings for various companies [1][6]. Upgraded Ratings - Merril Lynch upgraded Darden Restaurants (DRI) from "Hold" to "Buy," raising the target price from $240 to $265, citing a value-driven operational strategy leading to stable customer traffic and market share growth [5]. - Mizuho Securities upgraded Procter & Gamble (PG) from "Neutral" to "Outperform," increasing the target price from $157 to $165, indicating potential for accelerated organic sales growth and improved profit margins [5]. - Royal Bank of Canada’s Cowen upgraded Fortinet (FTNT) from "Hold" to "Buy," maintaining a target price of $100, based on stable operational expectations for FY2026 [5]. - Deutsche Bank upgraded Applied Materials (AMAT) from "Hold" to "Buy," significantly raising the target price from $275 to $390, reflecting a favorable outlook for the wafer fabrication equipment industry in 2026-2027 [5]. - JPMorgan upgraded Acushnet Holdings (GOLF) from "Underweight" to "Neutral," increasing the target price from $74 to $96, due to a diversified product portfolio and pricing power [5]. Downgraded Ratings - Citizens Bank downgraded Trade Desk (TTD) from "Outperform" to "Market Perform," without providing a target price, citing increasing market competition and limited short-term catalysts for stock price appreciation [10]. - Deutsche Bank downgraded Sherwin-Williams (SHW) from "Buy" to "Hold," lowering the target price from $390 to $380, indicating potential downward pressure on valuation multiples until earnings growth can be proven [10]. - Jefferies downgraded Li Auto (LI) from "Buy" to "Hold," significantly reducing the target price from $28.80 to $17.50, due to intensified competition in the home SUV segment [10]. - Harbor Research downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) from "Buy" to "Neutral," acknowledging improved fundamentals but noting that the current stock price reflects normalized earnings levels [10]. - JPMorgan downgraded Southern Copper (SCCO) from "Neutral" to "Underweight," slightly adjusting the target price from $119.50 to $117.50, indicating limited upside potential based on current copper spot prices [10]. New Coverage Ratings - Citigroup initiated coverage on Elf Beauty (ELF) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $110, highlighting market share growth and potential from the acquisition of skincare brand Rhode [12]. - Freedom Capital initiated coverage on Hinge Health (HNGE) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $59, forecasting a 23% revenue growth and an industry-leading profit margin of 82%-83% [12]. - Susquehanna Group initiated coverage on HEICO Corporation (HEI) with a "Neutral" rating and a target price of $385, projecting an 8% revenue CAGR and a 13% free cash flow CAGR from FY2026 to FY2028, while noting a significant valuation premium [12]. - Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage on Quanta Services (PWR) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of $520, citing a multi-year investment cycle driven by modernization and electrification trends [12]. - Texas Capital initiated coverage on MGM China (MLCO) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $11.50, emphasizing its unique non-gaming business model and alignment with Macau's tourism recovery [12].

Company Overview - Cleveland-Cliffs stock experienced a nearly 10% increase this week after a downgrade led to a previous drop, indicating investor interest in the stock despite recent valuation concerns [1][2] - The current stock price is $14.01, with a market capitalization of $8.0 billion [3] Stock Performance - The stock has risen over 50% in the last six months, reflecting strong market performance prior to the downgrade [2] - The stock's 52-week range is between $5.63 and $16.70, showing significant volatility [4] Industry Context - The steel industry is benefiting from increased demand in infrastructure, construction, and automotive sectors, which is driving up prices and profit margins for domestic producers [4] - Anticipation of economic recovery, potential interest rate reductions, and robust government infrastructure investment are contributing to positive sentiment in the steel sector [4] Peer Comparison - Nucor, a domestic peer, has also seen its stock rise nearly 7% since the beginning of the year, indicating a broader trend in the steel industry [5] - The upcoming earnings season will be crucial to determine if the demand is benefiting all domestic steelmakers or if the gains are specific to certain companies [5]

Core Thesis - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is positioned for significant upside due to both company-specific and macroeconomic factors, with a current share price of $13.36 and P/E ratios of 133.67 (trailing) and 62.89 (forward) [1][2] Company-Specific Developments - The company has not experienced the same multi-hundred percent returns as other steel companies over the past five years, creating an asymmetric investment opportunity [2] - A potential strategic investment from POSCO, estimated at a 10% to 20% stake, could enhance the balance sheet and validate Cleveland-Cliffs' vertically integrated U.S. steel model [3] - Management has taken steps to improve margins by idling or permanently closing at least six low-margin facilities, with further rationalization expected [4] Macro Factors - Tariffs are boosting domestic pricing power, while a changing interest rate environment could ease Cleveland-Cliffs' debt burden, especially with potential rate cuts anticipated before 2026 [5] - Demand-side factors, such as interest-free or subsidized auto financing, are expected to support vehicle production and increase steel intensity, aligning with the company's focus on higher-value markets [5] Future Outlook - Options activity post-May may confirm improving fundamentals, with a reasonable upside target of $20 under pessimistic assumptions and a potential move above $30 in a favorable macro and execution scenario [6] - A pro-manufacturing policy backdrop could further amplify gains for Cleveland-Cliffs [6] - The thesis on Cleveland-Cliffs shares similarities with a previous bullish thesis on Steel Dynamics, emphasizing balance sheet repair and macro tailwinds [8]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE:CLF) is experiencing a recovery in its stock price after a significant decline, despite a downgrade from KeyBanc, indicating potential for further gains due to technical indicators and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - CLF's stock rose by 2.6% to $12.35, recovering from a previous drop of 9.3% [1]. - The stock is approaching a historically bullish trendline, suggesting a potential rebound [1]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The stock is currently within 0.75 of the 126-day moving average's 20-day average true range (ATR), having remained above this level 80% of the time in the past two weeks and 80% of the last 42 trading sessions [2]. - Historical data shows that similar signals have led to a 75% chance of the stock being higher one month later, with an average gain of 4.3% [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - A short squeeze may provide additional support, with short interest at 13.1% of the stock's available float, equating to nearly three days of buying power [4]. - The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 28.1 indicates that the stock is in "oversold" territory, which often precedes a short-term bounce [4].

Group 1 - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) is the largest flat-rolled steel company in North America and has consistently been rated as a "Buy" due to its significant growth potential [1] - The company is covered by analysts who provide insights and analysis, helping investors balance growth and value [1] - Beyond the Wall Investing offers features such as a fundamentals-based portfolio, weekly analysis from institutional investors, and alerts for short-term trade ideas based on technical signals [1]

Group 1 - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) is the largest flat-rolled steel company in North America and has consistently been rated as a "Buy" due to its significant growth potential [1] - The company is covered by analysts who provide insights and analysis, helping investors balance growth and value [1] - Beyond the Wall Investing offers features such as a fundamentals-based portfolio, weekly analysis from institutional investors, and alerts for short-term trade ideas based on technical signals [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs' stock experienced a significant decline of over 9% following an analyst downgrade, reflecting concerns about the company's future performance [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Downgrade - Analyst Philip Gibbs of KeyBanc downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs from overweight (buy) to sector weight (hold), noting that the stock had surpassed his price target of $13 per share [2]. - Gibbs expressed concerns about diminishing business-boosting catalysts, particularly a decline in activity from auto industry customers, and noted that costs are slightly higher than previously anticipated [3]. Group 2: Company Strengths - Despite the downgrade, Gibbs highlighted several favorable factors for Cleveland-Cliffs, including its strategic cooperation with POSCO, a leading Korean steelmaker, which could positively impact its operations and finances [4]. Group 3: Investment Perspective - While Cleveland-Cliffs remains a top steel producer in the U.S., it is not viewed as a compelling investment opportunity, with no anticipated surges in demand, even amid efforts to bolster domestic manufacturing [5]. - The Motley Fool Stock Advisor team has identified ten stocks they believe are better investment opportunities than Cleveland-Cliffs, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's potential for significant returns [6][7].