Group 1 - The core development in the prediction market sector is the proposal of ETFs that could attract both institutional and individual investors, indicating a significant shift in the industry [1] - At least three ETF issuers, including Roundhill Investments, Bitwise Asset Management, and GraniteShares, have filed with the SEC to launch funds based on event contracts related to U.S. elections, highlighting the growing interest in prediction markets [1] - The proposed ETFs will hold event contracts that have binary outcomes, specifically betting on the results of the 2024 congressional elections and the 2028 presidential election, which could institutionalize prediction markets similar to how cryptocurrency funds have evolved [1] Group 2 - The popularity of prediction markets is increasing, prompting major derivatives firms like CME Group and Cboe Global Markets to explore offering event contracts to their clients, indicating a broader acceptance of these financial instruments [1] - The ETF filings currently lack detailed information regarding exchange usage and fee structures, which is typical in the early stages of the approval process, but they do outline unique aspects of the proposed ETFs, including settlement risks [1] - If election outcomes contradict the ETF strategy, significant losses could occur, as indicated in the filings, emphasizing the inherent risks associated with these investment products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is experiencing a significant downward trend, with a drawdown of approximately 50% from its peak of around 127,000 last year, and the sentiment remains bearish due to its position in the fourth year of the halving cycle [2][4]. Bitcoin Analysis - The current technical indicators show that Bitcoin is identified as a risk-on/risk-off asset, with a notable correlation to the performance of the software ETF IGV, which has declined by 30-35% [3]. - The 100-week moving average previously served as support but was breached, with a potential near-term low established around 60,000, where the relative strength index (RSI) dropped to 17 [5][6]. - Key trading levels for Bitcoin include 60,000 as a support level and 70,000 as a near-term resistance level, with a breakout level around 73,000 to 74,000 [6][8]. Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum has also seen a significant decline, down about 60% from its highs, with a near-term low around 1,750 and an RSI of 18 indicating it is extremely oversold [10]. - The trading range for Ethereum is suggested to be around 2,050, with a need for consolidation to heal the technical damage observed in both Ethereum and Bitcoin [11][12]. Regulatory Environment - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has shifted from skepticism to a more cautious approach regarding Bitcoin, citing the need for regulatory clarity as a significant factor in his investment strategy [13][14]. - The regulatory landscape is crucial for Bitcoin's future, with potential bullish catalysts hinging on clearer regulations surrounding digital assets [14][16]. CME Group Developments - CME Group announced the launch of 247 crypto futures and options in May, responding to record client demand for risk management in digital assets, with a 46% year-over-year increase in futures contracts [18][20]. - This development is seen as beneficial for both institutional and retail investors, providing more flexibility in managing exposure to cryptocurrencies [19][20].

CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) will launch 24/7 cryptocurrency futures and options trading starting May 29, closing the timing gap between regulated derivatives and always-on crypto markets as CME is trading flat after breaking out to new highs.The 24/7 LaunchThe change addresses a key friction point—digital assets trade continuously on spot exchanges, but regulated futures close overnight and on weekends, creating gaps for hedging and risk management.Tim McCourt, CME’s Global Head of Equities, FX, and Alternative ...

Core Viewpoint - CME Group is set to launch 24/7 trading for crypto futures and options starting May 29, allowing continuous trading with a two-hour weekly maintenance break over the weekend, marking a significant shift in the trading landscape for cryptocurrencies [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Details - Starting May 29, all CME crypto futures and options will trade continuously, with a two-hour maintenance break on weekends, a change from the previous 23-hour trading schedule on weekdays [2]. - Transactions during the Friday to Sunday period will have a trade date of the following business day, with clearing, settlement, and reporting also processed the next business day [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The move towards 24/7 trading aligns with broader trends on Wall Street, where major players are also exploring nonstop trading options, influenced by the crypto industry's growth [7]. - The CEOs of Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange have indicated they are working to enable 24/7 stock trading, with crypto playing a central role in this transition [8]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Implications - CME's shift to 24/7 trading is pending regulatory review, with CFTC chair Mike Selig expressing support for the initiative, particularly for the crypto market, while noting that not all markets may benefit from such a model [5][6]. - The adjustment would allow institutional investors to manage their crypto positions during periods of market volatility outside standard trading hours, addressing the significant price swings often seen in the crypto market during weekends [7].

Group 1 - CME Group announced that its regulated cryptocurrency futures and options will offer 24/7 trading starting May 29, pending regulatory review [1] - Tim McCourt, Global Head of Equity and FX Products at CME Group, stated that the demand for risk management in the digital asset market has reached an all-time high [1] - The platform is projected to reach a record nominal trading volume of $3 trillion in cryptocurrency futures and options by 2025 [1]

Core Insights - CME Group will launch 24/7 trading for its regulated Cryptocurrency futures and options starting May 29, pending regulatory review [1][2] - Client demand for risk management in the digital asset market has reached an all-time high, resulting in a record $3 trillion in notional volume for Cryptocurrency futures and options in 2025 [2] - The continuous trading will include a two-hour weekly maintenance period over the weekend, with holiday or weekend trades dated to the following business day [2] Company Performance - CME Group has reported an average daily volume (ADV) of 407,200 contracts, which is a 46% increase year-over-year, and an average daily open interest of 335,400 contracts, up 7% year-over-year [5] - The futures ADV specifically reached 403,900 contracts, marking a 47% increase year-over-year [5] Market Position - CME Group is recognized as the world's leading derivatives marketplace, facilitating trading across various asset classes including interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products, and metals [3] - The company operates the CME Globex platform for futures and options trading, BrokerTec for fixed income trading, and EBS for foreign exchange trading, alongside being a major central counterparty clearing provider [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the market from various perspectives, focusing on AI disruption, economic growth, and cyclical recovery that have positively impacted investment portfolios [1] - Leo Nelissen is identified as a long-term investor and macro-focused strategist, emphasizing dividend growth and high-quality compounders [1] - The approach combines macro analysis with stock research to identify businesses with strong cash-flow potential [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific financial data or performance metrics related to companies or industries [2][3]

Economic Data Insights - U.S. inflation data showed a less-than-expected increase at 2.4% for January, with core inflation at 2.5% for the same period, suggesting a potential for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts in the upcoming meeting [3] - Despite the positive inflation data, U.S. futures remained relatively flat, indicating that market sentiment may not be significantly influenced by the inflation figures [3] Market Predictions - Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, indicate that the majority of participants believe the Federal Reserve will pause rate changes, with only 8% predicting a 25 basis points cut [4] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool showed a 93.6% chance of the Fed holding rates steady last Thursday, which slightly decreased to 90.2% by Monday afternoon, reflecting minimal change in market expectations [6] Job Market Revisions - The U.S. labor market experienced its largest downward revision in 20 years, with 1,029,000 jobs counted in CY25 that were later found to be non-existent, following previous downward revisions of 818,000 in CY24 and 306,000 in CY23 [8] - Over the past three years, more than 2.15 million jobs have been revised out of initial reports, raising concerns about the reliability of labor market data and its impact on market sentiment [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is preparing to launch the world's first rare earth futures contract, despite the U.S. lacking significant rare earth production and stockpiles. This move aims to provide Western companies with a hedging tool against price volatility and to challenge China's dominance in the rare earth market [1][4][5]. Group 1: CME's Strategic Intent - CME's initiative is designed to address the financing challenges faced by Western rare earth mining companies, which are deterred by unpredictable price fluctuations. By offering futures contracts, CME hopes to enable banks to lend to these companies, thereby stimulating the rare earth supply chain in the West [4][10]. - The futures contract aims to establish a pricing benchmark independent of the Chinese market, which currently controls approximately 70% of global rare earth production and over 90% of refining capacity. This would allow Western companies to reference CME prices instead of relying on Chinese market prices [5][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The price of neodymium-praseodymium oxide, a key material for high-performance magnets, has experienced extreme volatility, with a 50% drop followed by a 41% increase within a short period. This volatility exemplifies the risks that deter Western banks from financing new rare earth projects [3][4]. - Analysts express skepticism about the viability of the CME's futures contract due to potential delivery issues, regulatory risks, and the limited time frame for establishing a functional market. The U.S. currently produces only 12% to 15% of global rare earths, heavily relying on China for processing [8][10]. Group 3: China's Response and Market Control - China is likely to respond to CME's plans, as it holds significant leverage over the rare earth market. The Chinese government can manipulate export quotas or tighten environmental regulations to disrupt supply, undermining the effectiveness of any new futures contracts [7][10]. - The potential for CME's futures market to become illiquid is high if Chinese producers do not participate, which could render the contract ineffective for price discovery [7][10].

Core Insights - CME Group has achieved a significant milestone of 100 million event contracts traded since their launch in December, indicating strong early support for these products [1] Group 1: Event Contracts - Event contracts are designed for retail traders, providing a simple, intuitive, and low-cost way for investors to express their views on major stories across financial indicators, cultural moments, and sports [1] - The rapid achievement of 100 million contracts traded occurred within just eight weeks of trading, showcasing the product's popularity and market acceptance [1] Group 2: Company Vision and Future Plans - CME Group's Chairman and CEO, Terry Duffy, expressed optimism about building on the momentum generated by the early success of event contracts, aiming to expand distribution and reach new market participants [1] - The company is focused on attracting the next generation of potential traders to its platform [1] Group 3: CME Group Overview - CME Group is recognized as the world's leading derivatives marketplace, enabling clients to trade across various asset classes, including interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products, and metals [1] - The company operates multiple trading platforms, including CME Globex for futures and options, BrokerTec for fixed income, and EBS for foreign exchange [1]