Core Insights - CME Group reported its highest January average daily volume (ADV) on record at 29.6 million contracts, a 15% increase year-over-year, surpassing the previous record of 25.7 million contracts set in January 2025 [1][2] Volume Highlights - January 2026 ADV across various asset classes includes: - Interest Rate ADV: 13.9 million contracts, up 18% - Equity Index ADV: 7.3 million contracts, up 4% - Energy ADV: 3.6 million contracts, up 11% - Metals ADV: 2.2 million contracts, up 218% - Agricultural ADV: 1.6 million contracts - Foreign Exchange ADV: 991,000 contracts - Cryptocurrency ADV: 408,000 contracts, representing $10.8 billion notional [4] Product Performance - Record ADV in specific products: - Micro Silver futures ADV reached 438,000 contracts - 1-Ounce Gold futures ADV reached 115,000 contracts - Micro Copper futures ADV reached 48,000 contracts - Micro Gold futures ADV increased 472% to 693,000 contracts [3][4] International and Platform Performance - International ADV increased 19% to 9.2 million contracts, with EMEA ADV up 18% to 6.7 million contracts and APAC ADV up 25% to 2.2 million contracts [4] - BrokerTec U.S. Repo average daily notional value increased 20% to $382 billion, while European Repo ADNV increased 11% to €346 billion [4]

Fundamental Analysis - The core point of the article highlights the recent volatility in the gold market, where spot gold prices experienced a dramatic drop from nearly $5600 to a low of $4401, a decline of nearly $1200, driven by margin increases from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and market reassessment of the Federal Reserve's future leadership [1][3] - The market's reaction is attributed to a subtle shift in policy expectations following President Trump's nomination of former Fed Governor Walsh, which raised concerns about potential tightening of liquidity, thereby diminishing gold's appeal as a hedge against monetary easing [3][4] - The CME's decision to raise margin requirements for precious metal futures exacerbated the sell-off, forcing many speculative long positions to liquidate, creating a vicious cycle of price declines [3] - The strengthening of the US dollar during this period made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, further suppressing demand and contributing to the outflow from gold ETFs [3] Market Outlook - The market is currently assessing Walsh's true policy stance, particularly whether he will lean towards dovish rate cuts or return to a hawkish approach, which could impact gold prices depending on his signals regarding financial conditions [4] - Recent data indicates a rebound in US manufacturing; however, uncertainty surrounding trade policies and the emergence of anti-US buyer sentiment suggest that the recovery may not be stable [4] - The partial government shutdown may delay the release of key employment data, increasing market information asymmetry, and the future attractiveness of gold will depend on whether the economy achieves a "soft landing" or faces further setbacks [4] - Until Walsh's policies are clarified and the macroeconomic landscape becomes clearer, market volatility is expected to remain high [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices tested the $4400 support level, indicating potential market stagnation following the sharp decline [5] - In the 1-4 hour timeframe, the market continues to show selling pressure, with prices failing to recover from the recent lows [5] - Current trading conditions suggest a range between $4550 and $5050, with a cautious approach recommended due to potential liquidity risks [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the volatility in gold and silver futures prices, with significant declines followed by a rebound in the market [2][3] - On February 2, 2023, gold futures closed at $4653 per ounce, down 1.95% from the previous trading day, while silver futures fell 1.94% to $77 per ounce [2] - Following the price drop, both gold and silver futures experienced a notable rebound in overnight trading, with increases exceeding 4% and 9% respectively [2] Group 2 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group announced an increase in margin requirements for metal futures on January 30, raising gold futures margin from 6% to 8% and silver futures margin from 11% to 15%, effective after the close on February 2 [2] - The increase in margin requirements is expected to negatively impact related contracts by reducing speculative participation and liquidity, potentially forcing traders to liquidate positions [2] - Matthew Pigott from the independent research firm Metal Focus described the recent sell-off in precious metals as a "healthy correction," despite its extremity [3]

CME上调金银铂钯期货保证金比例。 【白银期货最新行情】 | 2月2日 | 收盘价（元/千克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 24832 | -17.00% | 674117 | 252527 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席，并称要求沃什降息不合适，降息无需白宫施压，沃什有望 获民主党人支持，并预期其将推动降息；白宫经济委员会主任哈塞特：白宫有信心沃什提名会迅速获得 确认。货币市场押注美联储今年将累计降息超过两次、每次25个基点。 特朗普认为即将就古巴达成一项协议，且指出格陵兰岛谈判已展开，认为协议已基本达成。 美国民主党参议员沃伦：在特朗普停止美联储调查之前，任何共和党人都不应同意推进沃什的提名。 美联储博斯蒂克：美联储现在无需降息，我们应该在利率问题上更加耐心；沃勒：当前利率区间为 3.50%-3.75%，而中性利率可能在3%左右；穆萨莱姆：进一步降息并不可取，当前政策已属中性，经济 无需刺激。 【机构观点】 银价高位资金离场，恐慌情绪蔓延，直线下挫，白 ...

当地时间1月30日，芝商所集团(CME Group)宣布上调旗下贵金属品种的交易保证金要求。公告称，将 于2月2日收盘后全面上调黄金、白银、铂、钯等贵金属期货的履约保证金(名义价值百分比)。这是CME Group内第2次上调白银、铂、钯期货的保证金。 据期货日报记者了解，此次调整幅度显著：黄金期货非高风险账户保证金比例从6%上调至8%，高风险 账户从6.6%上调至8.8%；白银期货非高风险账户从11%上调至15%，高风险账户从12.1%上调至16.5%； 铂、钯期货保证金也同步提高。 提高交易门槛给市场"降温" 在业内人士看来，CME Group近期密集出台风控措施，与贵金属价格剧烈波动直接相关。1月下旬，国 际金价一度突破5500美元/盎司，创历史新高。国际银价也一度飙升至121美元/盎司，年度涨幅近60%。 然而，1月30日，国际银价暴跌近31%，国际金价也出现了15%的跌幅，创下数十年来最大单日跌幅。 对此，中国(香港)金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英表示，金属价格极端波动的背后是大量资金涌入引 发的交易拥挤。仅2026年1月，亚洲黄金ETF规模就增长了70亿美元，国内黄金、白银相关的ETF流入 资金超1 ...

本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 芝商所集团宣布上调纽约商品交易所黄金、白银及其他贵金属期货合约的保证金要求，调整将于下周一 收盘后正式生效。 此前1月中旬，芝商所已完成保证金计算机制调整，将黄金、白银、铂金和钯金合约的保证金从固定金 额制改为按合约名义价值比例动态浮动，此次上调是近期风控升级动作的延续。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 根据芝商所披露的最新安排，黄金期货非高风险账户保证金比例从当前合约价值的6%上调至8%，高风 险账户从6.6%上调至8.8%；白银期货非高风险账户保证金比例从11%上调至15%，高风险账户从12.1% 上调至16.5%。此外，铂金和钯金期货的保证金要求同步提高。 芝商所表示，此次调整是在对市场波动性进行例行评估后作出的决定，旨在确保足够的抵押品覆盖率。 近期贵金属市场出现罕见剧烈震荡，黄金、白银价格经历快速冲高后出现历史级急跌，波动率显著攀 升。 ...

芝商所集团提高对纽约商品交易所 黄金和 白银期货的保证金要求，此前这两个期货品种的价格遭遇了 数十年来的最大跌幅。该交易所当地时间周五在一份声明中表示，对于非高风险级账户，黄金的保证金 比例将从目前的6%提高到8%。该交易所表示，高风险级账户保证金比例将从目前的6.6%提高到8.8%。 根据这份声明，对于非高风险级账户，白银的保证金比例将从目前的11%上调至15%，而高风险级账户 的白银保证金比例将从目前的12.1%上调至16.5%。铂金和钯金期货合约的保证金也将提高。芝商所表 示，此次调整从周一收盘起生效，是"照常评估市场波动以确保抵押品覆盖充分"的结果。（智通财经） ...

对于此次贵金属价格急跌的原因，Enrich Money首席执行官Ponmudi R分析称："主要导火索是美国总统 特朗普提名凯文.沃什出任下一任美联储主席。沃什曾以鹰派通胀立场和强调美联储独立性著称，其提 名引发市场迅速进行宏观重定价：美元走强、实际收益率上升，而此前作为过度对冲工具的黄金和白银 杠杆头寸被快速平仓。这导致市场出现猛烈抛售，市值蒸发数十亿美元，在典型的狂热转向衰竭阶段清 退了弱势持仓者。但这并非意味着结构性熊市反转的开始。" 保证金比例上调意味着，投资者交易黄金、白银、铂、钯期货时，需缴纳更多保证金作为履约担保。尽 管芝商所向来会在期货合约价格暴涨、暴跌或波动剧烈时例行上调保证金，但本次周五的调整，或进一 步令资金实力不足、无法补足保证金的中小投资者被迫退出市场。 SEBI注册大宗商品专家Anuj Gupta表示："在提高铜交易保证金后，CME又上调了黄金和白银的保证金 要求。此举预计将持续对贵金属价格构成压力。" 在黄金和白银期货价格创下数十年来最大跌幅后，芝加哥商品交易所(CME.US)宣布上调其旗下纽约商 品交易所(COMEX)相关合约的交易保证金。 芝商所周五发布声明称，针对非高风险账 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) has announced an increase in margin requirements for gold, silver, and other precious metal futures contracts following significant price declines, aiming to ensure adequate collateral coverage amid heightened market volatility [1][10]. Margin Requirement Adjustments - CME has raised margin requirements for gold futures from 6% to 8% for non-high-risk accounts and from 6.6% to 8.8% for high-risk accounts [3][4]. - Silver futures have seen a similar increase, with non-high-risk accounts' margin rising from 11% to 15% and high-risk accounts from 12.1% to 16.5% [5][6]. Market Context and Mechanism Changes - The margin increase is part of a broader trend of risk management enhancements by CME, transitioning from fixed margin amounts to a dynamic percentage of contract value [6][8]. - This change means that during periods of market turbulence, higher collateral will be automatically required, increasing the cost of leverage for traders [8][9]. Historical Precedents and Market Impact - Historical data suggests that when exchanges raise margin requirements, it often indicates the end of bullish trends or the beginning of significant corrections [11][12]. - The increased margin requirements may marginally push out traders who cannot quickly meet the new collateral demands, potentially leading to reduced market liquidity [12][13]. Systemic Risk Management - CME's actions reflect a consensus among global exchanges to prioritize the suppression of systemic risk over allowing leverage expansion, especially in the context of heightened volatility in precious metals [15][16].

Core Insights - CME Group (CME) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.75 per share, a 9.1% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $1.63 billion, reflecting a 6.7% year-over-year increase [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.1% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor actions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between these revisions and short-term stock performance [3] Revenue Projections - Analysts project 'Revenues- Other' to reach $111.34 million, a slight decrease of 0.1% from the previous year [5] - 'Revenues- Clearing and transaction fees' are expected to be $1.32 billion, marking a 6.8% increase year-over-year [5] - 'Revenues- Market data and information services' are estimated at $203.62 million, reflecting a 12.1% increase from the prior year [6] - 'Revenues- Clearing and transaction fees- Interest rates' are projected at $405.78 million, indicating a 1.2% decrease year-over-year [6] - 'Revenues- Clearing and transaction fees- Foreign exchange' is expected to be $45.67 million, a decrease of 5.4% from the year-ago quarter [7] Average Daily Volume Estimates - The average daily volume (including NYMEX and COMEX) is projected to reach 27.49 million, up from 25.50 million in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Average daily volume - Metals (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is expected to be 1.30 million, compared to 673.00 thousand a year ago [8] - 'Average daily volume - Interest rates (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is estimated at 13.33 million, slightly up from 13.24 million year-over-year [8] - 'Average daily volume - Equity indexes (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is projected to reach 7.61 million, an increase from 6.34 million a year ago [9] - 'Average daily volume - Foreign exchange (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is expected to be 881.82 thousand, down from 969.00 thousand in the same quarter last year [9] - 'Average daily volume - Energy (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is forecasted at 2.56 million, compared to 2.52 million last year [10] - 'Average daily volume - Agricultural commodities (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is estimated at 1.81 million, up from 1.76 million year-over-year [10] Stock Performance - Over the past month, CME shares have returned +6.1%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.9% change [10]