编者按：最近，独立研究机构 Citrini Research 提出一个"未来回顾式"的经济思想实验：如果未来几年人工智能（AI）技术不仅实现了所有预期，而且极致 地推动了生产率，经济真的会更繁荣吗？ 他们的回答是：不一定——甚至可能引发经济与金融体系的系统性危机。 发布推文已经有近2800万阅读。大众对于AI替代人类的排斥感与金融精英对结构性风险的担忧正在合流。 首席在昨天的推文里简要阐述了一下报告的主要观点，并请用户们做了一个简单的投票，结果如下： | Al+机器人会带来经济繁荣吗? 单选 | | | --- | --- | | 会提升人类的平均收入 | 48票 15% | | 会降低人类的平均收入 | 104票 33% | | 不好说,看Al能否达到人类智能 | 60票 19% | | 人会背锅, Al永远不会 | 54票 17% | | 未来人类可以自由选择是否需要工作,生存物资取之不尽了。 | 51票 16% | 回顾过去半个多月，从MiniMax与智谱AI市值在港股迅速逼近甚至超越快手、京东、携程开始，市场已清晰感知到一场不只是"技术突破"的资本重估。中 国以春节联欢晚会为代表，将AI推向全民叙事； ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源|New Economist微信公众号 《2028年全球智力危机》 编者按：研究机构Citrini Research近期发布了一份关于人工智能经济风险的假设性报告，引发了市场广 泛关注和讨论。报告原标题为《2028全球智能危机——来自未来的金融史思想实验》（THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS： A Thought Exercise in Financial History， from the Future），该报告 明确声明其唯一目的是模拟一个相对未被充分研究的情景，是一个"思想实验"而非预测。 报告设定了一个假想的时间点——2028年6月，并描绘了人工智能（AI）快速发展可能引发的连锁经济 危机。报告提出了几个核心概念： "AI效率悖论"：AI的成功可能导致经济不稳定。其推演的核心风险链条包括：白领大规模失业：AI替 代复杂白领劳动，导致"智能溢价"消失，中产阶层收入结构受损。 "幽灵GDP"与消费萎缩：即企业利润因AI增效而增长，但被替代的劳动力消费能力下降，货币流通速度 放缓，形成"产出增长 ...

President Donald Trump earlier in January issued an ultimatum to credit card companies in January, demanding that rates be lowered to 10% by January 20 or face severe consequences.Trump's DeadlineWhile the Jan. 20 deadline has long passed, the credit card rates have not been capped yet.Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Monday published an op-ed on Fox News, criticizing Trump's "broken promise on credit cards."Here's What The Prediction Market ThinksData from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, ...

Group 1 - The core argument of Citrini Research's post is that AI agents could potentially disrupt traditional payment networks by rerouting transactions to stablecoin systems, which may eliminate interchange fees [2] - Following the release of this scenario, major companies in the payment processing sector, including Mastercard, Visa, and American Express, experienced stock declines ranging from 4% to 6% [3] - The analysis emphasizes that issuers, rather than payment networks, are the more vulnerable entities in this scenario, as the majority of interchange fees are collected by issuers and intermediaries [4] Group 2 - The economic rationale behind the shift towards stablecoins is that AI agents will prioritize cost efficiency, leading to a preference for cheaper transaction methods, which could significantly impact traditional interchange fees [5] - The transition towards software-controlled transactions is expected to reshape transaction economics, as companies explore stablecoins and alternative payment rails to achieve cost savings, particularly in low-margin sectors [6]

Key Takeaways Capital One trades at 9.42X forward earnings, above industry and key peers like Ally and OneMain.COF's credit card net revenues rose 40.5% in 2025, boosted by Discover and loan growth.Capital One faces margin risks from rate caps, rising costs and recent earnings estimate cuts.At a glance, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) stock appears to trade at a premium when compared with the industry at large. The company’s current forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.42 is above the in ...

一篇雄文（熊文？），把市场砸出了一个坑。 2026年2月23日，周一，美股开盘。（你看，咱们这春节不开盘也有好处） 道琼斯跌了800多点，收在了日内最低点，全市场只有27%的股票收涨。 而触发这场抛售的，是一篇Substack上的一篇名为《2028全球智能危机》文章。 作者自己写了三遍：这只是思想实验，但市场不管这些，崩了！ DoorDash跌了7%，MongoDB跌了6%，ServiceNow和Salesforce各跌4%。 金融行业的跌幅更狠，美国运通、KKR、黑石都跌超8%，阿波罗全球、Capital One也跌了至少3%。 当天，科技软件ETF（IGV）创下了52周新低，当日下跌5%，年初至今已经跌了近30%，把ChatGPT发布以来的涨幅都跌没了。 更戏剧化的是IBM，跌近12%。（当然，客观地说，这大概率和Anthropic旗下产品会支持COBOL维护有关） 这件事值得我专门发一篇文章的点在于——这TM完全一篇想象出来的未来推演。 这说明市场早已绷紧了一根弦，而Citrini这篇文章，成了那个出口。 很显然，文章没有瞎扯，对未来推演的逻辑是让人信服的（至少说服了市场），这就值得我们一块来仔细盘一盘 ...

CitriniResearch日前发布报告，详细分析了人工智能（AI）可能给全球经济多个领域带来的潜在风险，导致送餐、 支付和软件类股票周一大幅下跌。 DoorDash.、AmericanExpress、KKR&Co Inc.和Blackstone股价周一盘中均下跌超过8%。 文章中被点名的其他公司，包括Uber、Mastercard、Visa、CapitalOne和Apoll CitriniResearch日前发布报告，详细分析了人工智能（AI）可能给全球经济多个领域带来的潜在风险，导致送餐、 支付和软件类股票周一大幅下跌。 DoorDash.、AmericanExpress、KKR&Co Inc.和Blackstone股价周一盘中均下跌超过8%。 文章中被点名的其他公司，包括Uber、Mastercard、Visa、CapitalOne和Apollo GlobalManagement Inc.，股价也至少下 跌3%。 这篇周日发布的报告在前言中写道： "本文的唯一目的，是对一个此前相对缺乏深入探讨的情景进行建模。 希望读完之后，你能为人工智能让经济变得越来越'奇怪'所带来的潜在尾部风险做好准备。 " Ci ...

Capital One Financial Corp (NYSE:COF) shares are trading lower Monday afternoon as a wave of selling hit U.S. bank and asset-management shares on worries about private credit and AI-exposed lending.Here’s what investors need to know.Capital One Financial stock is feeling bearish pressure. Why is COF stock dropping?What’s Driving Monday’s Weakness?Although Capital One has very limited direct exposure to Blue Owl vehicles, the decision to sell a large portfolio at book value and accelerate cash back to invest ...

来源：滚动播报 Capital One收跌8.8%，美国运通下挫7.2%。 ...

Financial giants have made a conspicuous bearish move on Capital One Financial. Our analysis of options history for Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF) revealed 32 unusual trades.Delving into the details, we found 37% of traders were bullish, while 46% showed bearish tendencies. Out of all the trades we spotted, 29 were puts, with a value of $2,276,752, and 3 were calls, valued at $95,300.Projected Price TargetsTaking into account the Volume and Open Interest on these contracts, it appears that whales have bee ...