Core Viewpoint - The shoe company has decided to provide full-year guidance after previously withholding it due to macroeconomic uncertainties [1] Group 1 - The company is responding to improved visibility in the market, allowing it to offer a more confident outlook for the upcoming year [1] - Previous macroeconomic uncertainties had led the company to refrain from issuing guidance, indicating a cautious approach to forecasting [1] - The decision to provide guidance suggests a potential stabilization in the industry, which may benefit investor confidence [1]

Financial Performance - Second quarter fiscal 2026 revenue increased 9% to $1.43 billion compared to $1.31 billion, with a constant currency increase of 8.3%[6] - HOKA brand net sales rose 11.1% to $634.1 million, while UGG brand net sales increased 10.1% to $759.6 million[7] - Gross margin improved to 56.2% from 55.9%, and diluted earnings per share increased 14% to $1.82[6] - Full fiscal year 2026 net sales are expected to be approximately $5.35 billion, with HOKA projected to grow by a low-teens percentage and UGG by a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage[12] - Operating margin is projected to be approximately 21.5% for the full fiscal year 2026[12] Shareholder Actions - The company repurchased approximately 2.6 million shares for $282 million at an average price of $109.31 per share, with $2.2 billion remaining under its stock repurchase authorization[8] Expenses and Cash Flow - SG&A expenses as a percentage of net sales are expected to be approximately 34.5%[12] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $1.414 billion from $1.226 billion year-over-year[7] - Inventories rose to $835.6 million compared to $777.9 million from the previous year[7] - The company had no outstanding borrowings as of September 30, 2025[7]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation is set to announce its fiscal second-quarter results on October 23, 2025, with expectations of adjusted earnings of $1.58 per share and revenue of $1.42 billion, reflecting a 1% decrease in earnings and an 8% increase in sales year-over-year [3] - The company's stock has declined nearly 50% year-to-date, contrasting with a 15% rise in the S&P 500, raising questions about its investment potential despite its historical growth and strong margins [4] - Market sentiment is a primary concern, as disappointing earnings or slowing growth in its HOKA brand could exert further pressure on the stock [5] Valuation - Deckers' current valuation appears reasonable, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.7, lower than the S&P 500 average of 24.2, and a price-to-sales ratio of 3.0, slightly below the market's 3.2, indicating that investors are acquiring a company with superior margins without incurring a premium [6] Growth - Over the past three years, Deckers has achieved revenue growth of approximately 16.5% per year, nearly three times the overall market growth rate, with a 16% increase in sales over the last twelve months and a 6.5% rise in the first quarter year-over-year [7] Profitability - Deckers boasts an operating margin of 23.6%, significantly above the S&P's 18.6%, and a net margin of 19.4%, demonstrating strong pricing power even in a softer consumer environment [9] Financial Stability - The company has a robust balance sheet with only $277 million in debt against a market cap of $15 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of just 1.8%, and holds $1.9 billion in cash, providing significant financial flexibility [10] Historical Resilience - Deckers has a history of recovering quickly from market downturns, rebounding from a 48% drop during the inflation shock of 2022 within 308 days, and recovering from a 55% decline during the Covid market crash in just 76 days [11][12] Conclusion - Despite weak market sentiment, Deckers' strong fundamentals, including robust growth, high margins, and a solid balance sheet, position it well for potential recovery, especially if the upcoming earnings report exceeds expectations [13]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] - A specific company is highlighted as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that are essential for meeting the increasing energy demands of AI technologies [3][7] Investment Landscape - Wall Street is investing hundreds of billions into AI, but there is a pressing concern regarding the energy supply needed to sustain this growth [2] - AI data centers consume energy equivalent to that of small cities, leading to a strain on global power grids and rising electricity prices [2][3] - The company in focus is positioned to capitalize on the surge in demand for electricity driven by AI advancements [3][6] Company Profile - The company is described as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, benefiting from the increasing need for energy infrastructure [4][5] - It is involved in the U.S. LNG exportation sector, which is expected to grow significantly under the current administration's energy policies [7] - The company is noted for its capability in executing large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction projects across various energy sectors, including nuclear energy [7][8] Financial Position - The company is completely debt-free and has a substantial cash reserve, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization [8] - It is trading at less than 7 times earnings, indicating a potentially undervalued position in the market [10] Market Trends - The ongoing AI infrastructure supercycle, combined with the onshoring boom and a surge in U.S. LNG exports, creates a favorable environment for the company's growth [14] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, further solidifying the importance of energy infrastructure [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is positioned for potential growth despite recent stock performance challenges, with upcoming earnings expected to reflect a slight profit decrease compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - Analysts anticipate DECK will report a profit of $1.58 per share for fiscal Q2 2026, a slight decrease from $1.59 per share in the same quarter last year [2]. - For fiscal 2026, DECK is projected to achieve a profit of $6.35 per share, a marginal increase from $6.33 per share in fiscal 2025, with further growth expected to $6.82 per share in fiscal 2027, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.4% [3]. Recent Stock Performance - DECK's shares have declined by 40.2% over the past 52 weeks, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which rose by 13.4%, and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund, which increased by 17.4% during the same period [4]. - Following the release of better-than-expected Q1 results, DECK's shares surged by 11.4% in the subsequent trading session, with net sales rising by 16.9% year-over-year to $964.5 million, exceeding consensus estimates by 7.3% [5]. Analyst Sentiment - Wall Street analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating for DECK, with 10 out of 25 analysts recommending "Strong Buy," one suggesting "Moderate Buy," 12 advising "Hold," and two indicating "Strong Sell" [6]. - The mean price target for DECK is set at $127.75, suggesting a potential upside of 34.4% from current levels [6].

Core Insights - Retail stocks linked to merchandise have faced significant declines over the past year, primarily due to increased tariffs and the elimination of the de minimis rule for duty-free imports [1][2] Retail Industry Overview - Retail businesses typically operate on thin margins and rely on high volume for profitability; however, rising tariffs have severely impacted these margins, posing survival challenges for many companies [2] Company-Specific Analysis Deckers Outdoor (DECK) - Deckers is leveraging its premium brand positioning to mitigate tariff impacts by increasing prices on its fast-growing HOKA and UGG products [5] - The CFO of Deckers indicated that if tariffs from Vietnam rise from 10% to 20%, the company could face an unmitigated impact of $185 million on its cost of goods sold in fiscal year 2026 [5] - Deckers has established cost-sharing partnerships with manufacturing facilities in Vietnam and China to distribute the tariff burden [5] - The company boasts the highest return on invested capital (ROIC) in the retail sector at 53% for 2024, with $1.72 billion in cash and only $312 million in debt, allowing it to remain profitable despite tariff challenges [6] - The mean price target for Deckers is $127.80, indicating a potential upside of 26% [6] Lululemon Athletica (LULU) - Lululemon is also positioned as an efficient business in the retail sector, with a ROIC of 45% [7] - Despite its efficiency, Lululemon has received a "Neutral" rating from Citi and a consensus "Hold" from 31 analysts [7]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE: DECK) is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity due to significant hedge fund interest and a solid return on equity, making it one of the safest stocks to invest in currently [1]. Group 1: Investment Ratings and Price Targets - UBS has maintained a Buy rating for Deckers Outdoor Corporation with a price target of $158, citing the stock's growth potential and current undervaluation [2]. - UBS estimates that Deckers can achieve modest double-digit sales growth, which could elevate its price-to-earnings ratio from 15x to over 20x [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Deckers reported Q1 fiscal 2026 sales of $965 million, exceeding Wall Street expectations by over $60 million, along with an earnings per share (EPS) that surpassed expectations by 21% [4]. Group 3: Business Overview - Deckers Outdoor Corporation operates through its subsidiaries, producing and selling clothing, accessories, and footwear for both performance and lifestyle activities globally [5].

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor (DECK) stock is considered a value stock, currently trading approximately 56% lower than its one-year high and below its three-year average price-to-sales multiple, despite having reasonable fundamentals for its valuation level [2]. Company Overview - Deckers Outdoor specializes in footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual and high-performance use, distributing through department stores and specialty retailers, with 140 global retail locations as of March 2021 [3]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated reasonable revenue growth of 16.3% for the last twelve months (LTM) and a three-year average growth of 16.5% [6]. - Deckers Outdoor has a free cash flow margin of nearly 19.2% and an operating margin of 23.6% LTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [6]. - The company has avoided major margin shocks in the past twelve months, maintaining stability in its financial performance [6]. - Despite promising fundamentals, DECK stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 15.3, suggesting a modest valuation [6]. Competitive Positioning - Compared to the S&P 500, Deckers Outdoor offers a lower valuation, higher revenue growth, and superior margins, positioning it favorably in the market [6]. Investment Strategy - The Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which includes Deckers Outdoor, has a history of outperforming benchmarks like the S&P 500, S&P 1500 Equal Weighted, and others, indicating a strong investment strategy [4][10]. - The portfolio has shown average forward returns of 12.7% over six months and 25.8% over twelve months, with a win rate of over 70% for both durations [7].

Group 1 - The article discusses the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 index for September, highlighting significant declines in share prices [1][8]. - CarMax experienced a 24.8% drop in stock value due to disappointing second-quarter results, with revenue and profits down by 25% year over year, reflecting decreased consumer enthusiasm for car purchases [3]. - FactSet Research Systems saw a 22.3% decline, attributed to results that fell below analyst expectations [4]. - Kenvue's stock fell by 21.9%, influenced by negative public perception regarding Tylenol's alleged link to autism following statements from public figures [5]. - Deckers Outdoor's shares decreased by 17.5%, impacted by concerns over tariffs and economic uncertainty, along with disappointing earnings reports [6]. - Synopsys experienced a 16.7% decline due to weakened demand from a major customer and previous export restrictions, which have since been lifted [7]. Group 2 - Despite the declines in these stocks, the S&P 500 index gained 3.5% in September, indicating a broader market resilience [8]. - The article suggests that while some stocks may have fallen due to temporary issues, they could present buying opportunities if the market has overreacted and the company's future remains promising [8][9]. - The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team has identified ten stocks they believe are better investment options than CarMax, indicating a shift in investor focus [10].

Market Overview - Mid cap growth equities experienced modest gains in Q3, with the Russell Midcap Growth Index returning 2.8%, lagging behind the Russell Midcap Value Index at 6.2% and the Russell Midcap Index at 5.3% [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cut in September contributed to easing monetary policy, benefiting rate-sensitive sectors and renewing interest in cyclical and innovation-led areas [3] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment improved due to the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill and progress on trade agreements, reducing policy uncertainty and enabling companies to execute delayed strategic decisions [4] - Earnings estimates stabilized, particularly in technology and AI-related sectors, despite ongoing challenges in non-residential construction and discretionary segments [4] Portfolio Performance - The ClearBridge Mid Cap Growth Strategy outperformed its benchmark in Q3, driven by stock selection in IT, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors, while consumer discretionary and financials sectors slightly detracted from performance [5] Sector Contributions - In the IT sector, AppLovin (APP) and Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) were standout performers, with AppLovin benefiting from strong earnings and optimism around its e-commerce business [6] - Consumer staples saw positive contributions from Performance Food Group (PFGC) and Casey's General Stores (CASY), both benefiting from strong operational performance [7] - The consumer discretionary sector faced challenges, particularly with Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Wingstop (WING) experiencing declines due to competitive pressures and softer spending trends [8] - Financials sector was a modest drag on performance, with Tradeweb Markets (TW) and Corpay facing challenges from macro volatility and company-specific issues [9] Portfolio Positioning - New positions were initiated in Roblox, benefiting from improved growth dynamics and advertising opportunities, and APi Group, which is well-positioned in safety and industrial services [10][11] - Exited position in Deckers Outdoor (DECK) due to increasing competitive pressures in the sneaker market [12] Outlook - Leadership within mid growth stocks remains selective, with a few companies rewarded for differentiated technology and strong pipelines, while others struggle with demand and competition [13] - Focus remains on identifying businesses with secular growth drivers across technology, healthcare, and industrials sectors [14] - Near-term market uncertainty is expected to persist, but the strategy is positioned to benefit from companies sustaining durable growth in earnings and cash flow [15] Portfolio Highlights - The ClearBridge Mid Cap Growth Strategy had positive contributions across seven of the 11 sectors, with IT and healthcare being the leading contributors [16] - Stock selection in IT, consumer staples, healthcare, and energy sectors contributed positively, while consumer discretionary and financials sectors weighed on performance [17] - Individual stock contributions included AppLovin, United Rentals (URI), and Performance Food, while detractors included Chipotle Mexican Grill and Tradeweb Markets [18]