Economic Reports - The delayed November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is expected on Thursday, skipping the October report due to a government shutdown, with the last September report showing +2.8% for both headline and core PCE [4] - The quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 2025 is also due on Thursday, with a first revision expected to align with the previously announced +4.3%, a significant improvement compared to the -0.6% reported in Q1 2025 [5] - Initial Jobless Claims are anticipated to rise above +200K, from +198K reported last week, indicating a "no hire, no fire" environment despite weaknesses in monthly job numbers [6] Q4 Earnings Reports - Q4 earnings season begins this week, with key reports from 3M and D.R. Horton before the market opens, and from Netflix, United Airlines, and Interactive Brokers Group after the market closes [7] - Interactive Brokers is rated as a buy (Zacks Rank 2), with expected growth of +2% on earnings and +4.3% on revenues [8] - Netflix, rated as a hold (Zacks Rank 3), is projected to achieve +27.9% growth in earnings and +16.8% in revenues as it expands globally [8] - D.R. Horton aims to exceed expectations of -25% earnings growth and -12% revenue decline [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The trading week begins on Tuesday, January 19th, 2026, with the market closed on Monday for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day [1] - The delayed November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is expected on Thursday, skipping the October report due to a government shutdown [4] - The quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 2025 is also due on Thursday, with expectations for a revision in line with the previously announced +4.3% growth [5] Group 2: Job Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims are anticipated to rise above +200K, from +198K reported last week, indicating a stable jobless claims environment despite weak monthly job numbers [6] Group 3: Q4 Earnings Reports - Q4 earnings season begins with reports from 3M (MMM) and D.R. Horton (DHI) before the market opens, and from Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL), and Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) after the market closes [7] - Interactive Brokers is expected to grow by +2% on its bottom line and +4.3% on the top, holding a buy rating [9] - Netflix aims for +27.9% growth in earnings and +16.8% in revenues, continuing its expansion into global markets, holding a hold rating [9] - D.R. Horton is expected to improve on a -25% earnings growth forecast with -12% revenues [9]

Core Viewpoint - Investor Steve Eisman suggests that President Trump's initiative to lower mortgage costs could lead to a short-term rally in U.S. homebuilder stocks, despite not addressing deeper market issues [1]. Group 1: Policy Impact - Trump's proposal includes purchasing $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to reduce borrowing costs, which Eisman believes could trigger a rally in homebuilder stocks [2]. - The current mortgage rates have decreased to 6%, and if they drop to 5.5%, it is expected that both existing and new home sales will improve [3]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Two key homebuilder stocks, Lennar Corp. and D.R. Horton Inc., are highlighted as having potential for upward movement due to falling mortgage rates and their low valuations [3]. - D.R. Horton has a market capitalization of $45 billion, and Eisman anticipates that these stocks will rise more rapidly than expected [3]. Group 3: Market Context - The homebuilding sector had a challenging year in 2025, impacted by high rates, tariffs, and immigration policies, but is showing positive momentum at the start of 2026 [4]. - Year-to-date performance for Lennar Corp. is +13.79% and for D.R. Horton Inc. is +7.03%, indicating a recovery trend [5].

Group 1 - BofA raised the price target on D.R. Horton (DHI) to $162 from $158 while maintaining a Neutral rating on the shares [1] - Homebuilder stocks have rallied sharply year-to-date after underperforming the market in 2025 [1] - The firm anticipates that weaker employment and migration trends, ongoing inflation, and a competitive selling environment will pressure fundamentals through 2026, marking it as a "reset year for homebuilders" [1]

Core Viewpoint - D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) is expected to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on January 20, with performance reflecting a balance between maintaining volumes and addressing affordability-driven demand constraints [1] Financial Performance - In the last quarter, DHI's earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.6%, while total revenues exceeded the estimate by 2.4%. Both metrics showed declines of 22% and 3.2% year-over-year, respectively [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the upcoming quarter's earnings per share (EPS) has decreased to $1.96 from $1.97, indicating a 24.9% decline from the previous year's EPS of $2.61. The revenue consensus is set at $6.71 billion, reflecting an 11.9% year-over-year decline [3] Revenue Expectations - DHI anticipates total revenues for the quarter to be between $6.3 billion and $6.8 billion, down from $7.61 billion reported a year ago. The Homebuilding segment, which contributed 92% of total revenues in fiscal 2025, is expected to see a decline due to fewer homes closed, with an estimated 17,100 to 17,600 units compared to 19,059 units in the same quarter last year [5] - Homebuilding revenues are predicted to decline by 11.5% year-over-year to $6.34 billion, with home closures expected to be 17,483 units, down 8.3% year-over-year. Rental Property revenues are projected at $186.4 million, indicating a 14.4% decline from the previous year [6] Margin Analysis - DHI expects gross margins to be pressured by lower average selling prices (ASPs), elevated incentives, and higher lot costs. The home sales gross margin is anticipated to be between 20% and 20.5%, down from 22.7% in the prior year, with a predicted contraction of 260 basis points [9][13] - The company has noted that lot costs continue to be a structural headwind, with year-over-year increases expected to impact closings for several quarters. While construction cycle times have improved, the benefits to margins from efficiency gains are likely to be limited in the near term [11] Orders and Backlog - For the fiscal first quarter, net sales orders are predicted to increase by only 1% year-over-year to 18,012 units, with backlog units estimated at 11,314, indicating a 2.8% growth from a year ago. The value of the backlog is expected to be $4.35 billion, reflecting a 1.1% year-over-year increase [14] Earnings Prediction - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for D.R. Horton, with an Earnings ESP of -8.67% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), indicating lower odds of an earnings surprise [15]

Core Viewpoint - D.R. Horton, Inc. is expected to report a decline in earnings and revenue for the upcoming first quarter compared to the previous year, indicating potential challenges in the housing market [1]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Expectations - Analysts anticipate D.R. Horton will report quarterly earnings of $1.92 per share, a decrease from $2.61 per share in the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is $6.65 billion, down from $7.61 billion a year earlier [1]. Group 2: Recent Performance - On October 28, D.R. Horton reported quarterly revenue of $9.7 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $9.4 billion [2]. - Quarterly earnings were reported at $3.04 per share, which was below the consensus forecast of $3.28 per share [2]. - Following the earnings report, D.R. Horton shares increased by 1.1%, closing at $161.00 [2]. Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Citigroup analyst maintained a Neutral rating and reduced the price target from $163 to $154 [4]. - Citizens analyst downgraded the stock from Market Outperform to Market Perform [4]. - UBS analyst maintained a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $195 to $191 [4]. - Wells Fargo analyst downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equal-Weight and cut the price target from $180 to $155 [4]. - Barclays analyst maintained an Equal-Weight rating and increased the price target from $110 to $132 [4].

Core Viewpoint - D.R. Horton, Inc. is expected to report a decline in earnings and revenue for the upcoming first quarter, reflecting broader challenges in the housing market [1]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Expectations - D.R. Horton is projected to report earnings of $1.92 per share for the first quarter, a decrease from $2.61 per share in the same period last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is $6.65 billion, down from $7.61 billion a year earlier [1]. Group 2: Recent Performance - On October 28, D.R. Horton reported quarterly revenue of $9.7 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $9.4 billion [2]. - Quarterly earnings were reported at $3.04 per share, which was below the consensus forecast of $3.28 per share [2]. - Following the earnings report, D.R. Horton shares increased by 1.1%, closing at $161.00 [2]. Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Citigroup analyst Anthony Pettinari maintained a Neutral rating and reduced the price target from $163 to $154 [4]. - Citizens analyst James McCanless downgraded the stock from Market Outperform to Market Perform [4]. - UBS analyst John Lovallo maintained a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $195 to $191 [4]. - Wells Fargo analyst Sam Reid downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equal-Weight and cut the price target from $180 to $155 [4]. - Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley maintained an Equal-Weight rating and raised the price target from $110 to $132 [4].

Core Viewpoint - D.R. Horton, Inc. is facing a significant decline in earnings per share and revenue for the upcoming quarter, indicating potential challenges in the homebuilding industry [2][6]. Financial Performance - The anticipated EPS for the quarter ending December 2025 is $1.96, reflecting a 24.9% decline year-over-year [2][6]. - Projected revenue is approximately $6.65 billion, representing an 11.9% year-over-year drop [2][6]. - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1.7%, indicating a reevaluation by analysts [2][3]. Market Valuation - DHI has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 13.30, suggesting the market's valuation of its earnings [4]. - The price-to-sales ratio is about 1.37, indicating how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of sales [4]. - The enterprise value to sales ratio stands at around 1.46, reflecting the company's total valuation relative to its sales [4]. Financial Health - DHI's current ratio is 17.39, indicating strong liquidity and the ability to cover short-term liabilities [5][6]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.25, showing a relatively low level of debt compared to equity [5][6]. - The earnings yield is 7.52%, providing a comprehensive view of DHI's financial standing [5].

Economic Outlook - ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood predicts a "golden age" for U.S. equities, likening it to the boom of the 1980s, with the U.S. economy described as a "coiled spring" ready for a significant rebound [1] - Wood attributes the current economic tension to a "rolling recession" caused by aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, forecasting a surge in GDP growth and wealth creation due to converging factors like deregulation and tax cuts [2] Innovation and Growth - The current economic environment is characterized as "Reaganomics on steroids," with expectations of increased capital spending in sectors like artificial intelligence and robotics, benefiting the ARK Innovation ETF and the S&P 500 [3] - Real GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 6-8%, driven by a 4-6% increase in productivity, which will help suppress unit labor costs [4] Housing Market - The housing market is central to the "coiled spring" thesis, with existing home sales at levels not seen since the early 1980s, despite a larger population [5] - As interest rates stabilize and inventory becomes available, a sharp recovery in the housing market is anticipated, particularly for major homebuilders like Lennar Corp., KB Home, and D.R. Horton, which have reduced prices to clear inventory [6] Asset Allocation - Wood advises caution towards gold, viewing it as historically expensive relative to the M2 money supply, while advocating for Bitcoin as a superior asset due to its mathematical scarcity and programmed supply growth [7] - The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF is positioned as a better diversification tool for the upcoming cycle of liquidity expansion [8] Market Performance - In 2026, the Nasdaq 100 index has increased by 1.35%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices have risen by 1.25% and 2.19%, respectively, indicating positive market performance [9]

​D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) is one of the Undervalued Cyclical Stocks to Invest In. Wall Street is cautious on D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI). Recently, on January 9, Michael Dahl from RBC Capital reiterated a Sell rating on the stock and lowered the price target from $118 to $117. Earlier on January 7, Citizens downgraded the stock from Market Outperform to Market Perform, without disclosing any price targets. ​Analysts at RBC Capital noted that they kept an Underperform rating on the stock because of t ...