Core Viewpoint - D.R. Horton (DHI) is expected to report a significant decline in quarterly earnings and revenues, reflecting broader challenges in the housing market [1]. Earnings Estimates - The anticipated earnings per share (EPS) for D.R. Horton is $1.96, representing a decline of 24.9% year-over-year [1]. - Analysts have revised the consensus EPS estimate 1.7% lower over the past 30 days, indicating a reevaluation of expectations [1][2]. Revenue Projections - Total revenues are forecasted to be $6.71 billion, which is an 11.9% decrease compared to the previous year [1]. - Specific revenue segments are projected as follows: - Financial Services revenues are expected to reach $163.74 million, down 10.2% year-over-year [4]. - Home sales from Homebuilding are estimated at $6.28 billion, reflecting a 12.1% decline [4]. - Rental revenues are projected at $192.76 million, indicating an 11.5% decrease [4]. - Homebuilding revenues overall are expected to be $6.30 billion, down 12% from the prior year [5]. Geographic Revenue Insights - Geographic revenues for Homebuilding are estimated as follows: - East: $1.20 billion, down 8.9% [5]. - South Central: $1.35 billion, down 9% [6]. - North: $957.85 million, up 1.6% [6]. - Southwest: $948.60 million, down 16.8% [6]. Sales Metrics - Net sales orders for homes sold are projected at 18,607, an increase from 17,837 in the previous year [7]. - Homes closed are expected to total 17,323, down from 19,059 in the same quarter last year [7]. - The average selling price for homes closed is estimated at $362.57 million, down from $374.90 million in the same quarter last year [8]. - The sales order backlog is projected to be 12,005, compared to 11,003 in the same quarter last year [8]. Market Performance - Over the past month, D.R. Horton shares have increased by 3.7%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which rose by 2.1% [8]. - D.R. Horton holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance in the upcoming period [8].

Core Viewpoint - Bill Pulte criticized home builders' stock buybacks, leading to a decline in shares of D.R. Horton and Lennar [1] Company Impact - D.R. Horton and Lennar experienced a drop in their stock prices following Pulte's comments on buybacks [1]

Company Overview - D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) is one of the largest homebuilding companies in America [2] - The company's shares have increased by 13.6% over the past year, making it one of the better-performing stocks in its sector [2] Recent Downgrades - Wells Fargo downgraded D.R. Horton from Overweight to Equal Weight and reduced the share price target from $180 to $155, citing inventory buildup and discounting in the industry [2] - Citizens also downgraded D.R. Horton in January, changing its rating from Market Outperform to Market Perform, indicating potential inventory clearing in 2026 [2] Market Conditions - The pessimism surrounding homebuilding stocks, including D.R. Horton, is linked to high interest rates, which are affecting the affordability of starter homes [3] - Research firms, including Wells Fargo and UBS, have recently downgraded multiple homebuilding stocks, indicating a broader concern in the housing market [3]

Defense Sector - The defense sector experienced significant volatility following President Trump's announcement of a proposed military budget increase to $1.5 trillion for fiscal 2027, a 50% increase from the $962 billion requested for 2026, leading to a surge in defense stocks [3][4] - Lockheed Martin's shares rose 4.3% on January 8, followed by a 4.2% increase on January 9, closing at $542.78, while Northrop Grumman and RTX also saw gains [3] - Smaller companies like Kratos Defense experienced a remarkable 13.8% increase, and defense-focused ETFs outperformed the broader market [3] Housing Market - President Trump's proposal to ban large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes caused a decline in major stock indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.9% and the S&P 500 slipping 0.3% [5] - Shortly after, Trump announced a directive for federal agencies to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds to lower mortgage rates, which led to a rally in housing stocks, with Rocket Companies surging 9.65% and homebuilders like Lennar and D.R. Horton also experiencing significant gains [6][8] - Analysts expressed concerns that while bond purchases might lower mortgage yields, they could also increase housing demand, complicating the affordability issue [7] Energy Sector - The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Trump's announcement of a $100 billion oil investment plan for Venezuela positively impacted major stock indexes, with energy stocks like Chevron and Exxon Mobil seeing gains [10] - However, by January 7, oil prices fell due to concerns over the long-term implications of Trump's plan to refine and sell Venezuelan crude, indicating a mixed market reaction [11] Tariffs and Legal Uncertainty - The market showed anxiety ahead of a Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs, with Wall Street futures dipping as uncertainty persisted regarding the legality of these policies [13] - Kevin Hassett's expectation that the Supreme Court would side with the Trump administration on tariffs adds another layer of speculation to the ongoing legal battle, highlighting the tension between executive power and trade norms [14] Market Dynamics - The overall market remains highly reactive to Trump's pronouncements, with significant fluctuations observed across various sectors, including defense, housing, and energy, reflecting the interplay between presidential policy and economic fundamentals [15][16] - On January 9, major indices were on track for weekly gains, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high of 6,966, indicating a volatile yet upward trend in the market [16]

Group 1 - The New York stock market indices opened higher on January 9, 2025, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 237.96 points to close at 49,504.07, a gain of 0.48% [1] - The S&P 500 index increased by 44.82 points to close at 6,966.28, reflecting a rise of 0.65%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 191.331 points to close at 23,671.346, marking an increase of 0.82% [1] - Among the S&P 500 sectors, nine out of eleven sectors saw gains, with the materials and utilities sectors leading with increases of 1.80% and 1.24%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 50,000 non-farm jobs were added in December 2025, below the market consensus of 55,000, with previous months' job additions revised downwards [1] - The unemployment rate for December 2025 was reported at 4.4%, a slight decrease from the revised rate of 4.5% in the previous month [1] Group 3 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for January 2025 was reported at 54, surpassing the previous month's 52.9 and the market consensus of 53.5, marking the highest level since September 2025 [2] - Consumer inflation expectations for one year remained stable at 4.2%, the lowest since January 2025, while the five-year inflation expectation rose from 3.2% to 3.4% [2] Group 4 - D.R. Horton, a major U.S. homebuilder, saw its stock price increase by 7.8% following President Trump's announcement to request Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase mortgage bonds to lower interest rates [3]

Market Performance - U.S. stocks reached record highs, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 237 points (0.5%), and the Nasdaq composite gaining 0.8% [1] - The positive market movement followed a mixed U.S. job market report, indicating a potential delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Job Market Insights - The U.S. Labor Department reported that employers hired fewer workers in December than expected, although the unemployment rate improved, suggesting a "low-hire, low-fire" state in the job market [2] Company Highlights - Vistra's stock surged 10.5% after signing a 20-year electricity supply deal with Meta Platforms, reflecting a trend among Big Tech companies to secure energy for AI data centers [3] - Oklo's shares increased by 7.9% following its agreement with Meta Platforms to secure nuclear fuel for a facility in Pike County, Ohio [3] Housing Market Developments - Homebuilders experienced strong performance after President Trump announced a plan to lower mortgage rates by proposing the purchase of $200 billion in mortgage bonds [4] - Builders FirstSource saw a 12% increase in stock price, while homebuilders like Lennar (up 8.9%), D.R. Horton (up 7.8%), and PulteGroup (up 7.3%) also performed well [5] Automotive Sector Challenges - General Motors' stock fell by 2.7% after announcing a $6 billion hit to its results for Q4 2025 due to a pullback from electric vehicles, in addition to a previous $1.6 billion charge [6] - The decline in demand for EVs is attributed to fewer tax incentives and relaxed fuel-emission regulations [6] Company Earnings Reports - WD-40's stock dropped 6.6% after reporting weaker-than-expected profits, although the CFO attributed the results to timing issues rather than demand [7]

Group 1 - There is still a significant demand for new housing in the market [1] - Builders are expected to provide incentives to attract buyers [1]

Financial Institutions - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) received a significant price target increase from BMO, which raised its target to $980 from $785 [2][9] - Truist Securities also lifted its target for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) to $331 from $330 [2][9] - Wells Fargo downgraded D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) to Equal Weight from Overweight, cutting its price target to $155 from $180, indicating a more cautious outlook on the homebuilder [3][9] Geopolitical Developments - Ukrainian drones reportedly struck Russian missile, ammunition, and oil depots in the Kostroma and Lipetsk regions, intensifying ongoing hostilities as President Zelenskiy arrived in Paris for talks [4][9] International Trade - China's Commerce Ministry imposed export controls on dual-use items to Japan, signaling potential shifts in international trade relations [6][9]

Industry Overview - The housing market is struggling as high mortgage rates deter potential buyers, leading sellers to refrain from lowering asking prices [1] - Additional challenges include aggressive immigration enforcement affecting the construction labor force and high tariffs on building materials like lumber, aluminum, and steel [1] Company Analysis: Lennar Corp. - Lennar reported a nearly 6% year-over-year revenue decline in Q4 2025, with shrinking margins [3][4] - Gross margins fell to 17% in Q4, with expectations of further declines to 15-16% in Q1 2026 [4] - The company projects full-year 2026 deliveries of approximately 85,000, significantly below market expectations [4] - LEN shares have dropped over 20% year-to-date, with bearish indicators suggesting further downside [5] Company Analysis: Meritage Homes Corp. - Meritage Homes, with a market cap of $4.6 billion, reported a Q3 2025 revenue of $1.4 billion, missing estimates by over 6% [6][7] - Margins fell from 21.4% to 20.1% in Q3, and the company's spec business model may lead to increased liabilities in a slowing market [7] - Despite a brief share price increase, MTH shares have since declined, indicating collapsing momentum [9] Company Analysis: D.R. Horton - D.R. Horton, with a market cap of $42.5 billion, reported a revenue decline of only 3% year-over-year, outperforming many competitors [11] - The entry-level housing market remains stagnant, with many potential buyers unable to make down payments or unwilling to move from low-rate mortgages [13] - The company's fiscal Q4 2025 margin dropped to 20%, and the stock has decreased by 15% since early December [13][14] Company Analysis: NVR Inc. - NVR operates an asset-light business model and has seen a revenue decline of 4.5% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [16][18] - Although NVR shares are down only 10% year-to-date, bearish momentum is building, with technical indicators suggesting a potential dip [18] Company Analysis: Tri Pointe Homes Inc. - Tri Pointe focuses on high-net-worth areas but faces challenges as high mortgage rates prevent homeowners from moving up [19][20] - Despite beating recent earnings projections, revenue is declining year-over-year, and management has lowered margin guidance [21]

Core Insights - The Meridian Hedged Equity Fund reported a return of 1.67% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 Index which returned 8.13% and the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index which returned 3.53% [1] Company Analysis: D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) - D.R. Horton, Inc. is the largest homebuilder in the U.S. by volume, focusing on entry-level and first-time buyer segments [3] - The company reported a one-month return of -6.51% and a 52-week gain of 2.42%, with shares closing at $144.47 and a market capitalization of $42.194 billion on December 23, 2025 [2] - D.R. Horton demonstrated strong operational efficiency, with better-than-expected home closings and new orders, resilient gross margins, and a 2% year-over-year decline in construction costs [3] - The company raised its share repurchase guidance, indicating confidence in future cash flows [3] - Despite its potential, D.R. Horton is not among the top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 61 hedge fund portfolios holding its stock at the end of Q3, down from 64 in the previous quarter [4]