Core Insights - The article discusses the potential benefits for oil and gas companies due to the polar vortex event, which is expected to increase natural gas consumption during winter [2]. Group 1: Industry Analysis - The polar vortex event will lead to temperatures significantly below normal, resulting in higher demand for natural gas [2]. - The oil and gas industry is characterized as a boom-bust, cyclical sector, requiring patience and experience for successful investment [2]. Group 2: Company Focus - The analysis includes a focus on undervalued oil and gas companies, particularly those that are under-followed or out-of-favor midstream companies, which present compelling investment opportunities [2]. - EQT Corporation is specifically mentioned as a company of interest, with the analyst holding a beneficial long position in its shares [3].

Core Insights - Whales have adopted a bearish stance on EQT, with 53% of trades being bearish and 46% bullish [1] - The total amount for put trades is $80,596, while call trades amount to $866,449 [1] - The predicted price range for EQT is between $57.5 and $75.0 [2] Options Trading Overview - Significant options trades indicate a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments, with notable trades including a bearish call for $60.00 and a bullish call for $70.00 [7] - The volume and open interest analysis is crucial for understanding liquidity and interest levels in EQT's options [3] Company Profile - EQT is an independent natural gas production company primarily operating in the Marcellus and Utica shales in the Appalachian Basin [8] - The company generates all its operating revenue in the US, mainly from the sale of natural gas [8] Market Position - Current trading volume for EQT is 4,416,443, with a price increase of 1.69% to $61.08 [13] - Analysts have set a consensus target price of $58.5, with varying ratings from different market experts [10][11]

Core Insights - The Carillon Scout Mid Cap Fund's third-quarter 2025 investor letter indicates positive returns for the Russell Midcap Index, driven by strong corporate earnings, AI infrastructure momentum, and U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [1] Company Summary: EQT Corporation - EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT), a natural gas production company, reported a one-month return of 4.66% and a 52-week gain of 31.13%, with a closing stock price of $58.60 and a market capitalization of $36.57 billion as of December 2, 2025 [2] - Despite its strong performance metrics, EQT Corporation underperformed due to weakened sentiment around natural gas as supply increased ahead of demand. The company anticipates rising demand as new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities come online and AI-related power demand grows in the coming years [3] - EQT Corporation is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 82 hedge fund portfolios holding its stock at the end of Q3 2025, down from 96 in the previous quarter. The company is viewed as a potential investment, but certain AI stocks are considered to offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets closed higher on November 28, 2025, with all three major indexes extending a multi-day rally, driven by hopes for future interest rate cuts and positive economic data [1][12] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 0.6% to 47,427.12, the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) increased by 0.7% to 23,214.69, and the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 0.5% to 6,812.61, marking the fifth consecutive session of increases for all three benchmarks [2] Weekly Performance - For the week, the Nasdaq surged 4.9%, the S&P 500 was up approximately 3.7%, and the Dow gained about 3.2% [3] - November was mixed; while the S&P 500 and Dow extended their winning streaks to seven months, the Nasdaq ended down 1.5%, attributed to reassessment of profitability timelines for major AI companies [3] Economic Data - Initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, below the consensus estimate of 229,000, indicating a strong labor market [5] - Orders for durable goods rose by 0.5% in September, missing estimates, while non-defense capital goods orders increased by 0.9%, a key indicator for business spending [5] Upcoming Events - Market participants are monitoring the potential for another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, which is a significant driver of market optimism [4] - Kevin Hassett is a key contender for the next Fed Chairman, with an announcement expected from President Trump before Christmas, which could influence monetary policy expectations [4] Individual Stock Performance - Intel (INTC) surged 10.2%, leading the S&P 500, following speculation it could become a foundry supplier for Apple (AAPL) processors [7] - Eli Lilly (LLY) shares slipped 2.6%, giving back some recent gains despite a market cap exceeding $1 trillion due to sales of weight-loss drugs [8] - Nvidia (NVDA) shares slid 1.8% amid competitive concerns, while other tech stocks like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) saw gains of 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively [9] Sector Performance - Retailers performed well on Black Friday, with Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Amazon (AMZN) finishing up roughly 1% to 2% [10] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks rose as Bitcoin moved above $90,000, with Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Coinbase Global (COIN) up by 7%, 5%, and 5%, respectively [11]

Core Viewpoint - EQT Corporation is recognized as one of the top commodity stocks to invest in, with strong multi-year performance and a bullish outlook from Morgan Stanley [1][2]. Financial Performance - Over the past five years, EQT has achieved over 50% production growth, a 30% reduction in costs, and a doubling of free cash flow [3]. - In Q3 2025, EQT reported $484 million in quarterly free cash flow, contributing to over $2.3 billion in free cash flow over the last four quarters [4]. - The company anticipates generating $19 billion in free cash flow over the next five years, driven by utility demand and a strategic LNG approach [5]. Capital Management - EQT demonstrated disciplined capital management by spending $70 million below the target midpoint and integrating Olympus Energy in just 34 days [5]. - The base dividend was raised by 5% to $0.66 per share, with expectations of minimal cash taxes in 2025, potentially saving nearly $100 million compared to previous forecasts [5]. Market Position - EQT has strengthened its competitive position in the market, supported by high production levels, strong productivity, and record-low cash costs [3][4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus remains on electricity demand, AI/power needs, and their impact on equities within the Energy, Utilities, and Mining sectors [1][5] Company Insights EQT (Oil & Gas) - EQT is highlighted as a high-quality equity for exposure to power demand, being a low-cost Appalachian producer with significant inventory depth [2] - The company benefits from extensive midstream infrastructure post-ETRN acquisition, enhancing local project interconnectivity [2] - Positive outlook maintained with a 12-month price target of $66 per share, reflecting an 8.5% target FCF yield on 2026/2027 estimates [2] Kinder Morgan (KMI) (Midstream) - KMI is viewed as a top opportunity due to its role in transporting ~40% of US natural gas and its interconnectivity across key regions [3] - The company is in discussions for $10 billion of pre-FID projects aimed at growing power demand, with a notable discount in stock price compared to peers [6] Sempra Energy (SRE) (Utilities) - SRE is rated as a Buy, with Oncor expected to benefit from data center load growth and a supportive regulatory environment [7] - The stock trades at 17.6x 2026E P/E, with an expected EPS growth rate of 10% through 2029, suggesting a higher multiple is warranted [7] Duke Energy (DUK) (Utilities) - DUK is also rated as a Buy, with a price target of $141, reflecting a 19.5x P/E multiple on estimates [7] - The company plans to increase capex to $95-$105 billion due to rising demand, with a competitive advantage in gas generation [7] MasTec (MTZ) (Energy Services) - MTZ is positioned well for growth due to increased utility capital spending and upcoming T&D projects starting in mid-2026 [8] - The stock trades at ~13x 2026 EV/EBITDA, slightly below the target of 14x, indicating potential for upside [8] Array Technologies (ARRY) (Clean Technology) - ARRY is seen as a compelling investment in the utility-scale solar sector, trading at a P/E of 11.1x compared to peers at 14.2x [10] - The company has improved its growth outlook and is experiencing bookings acceleration, which should lead to margin expansion [10] Market Dynamics - The overall sentiment is constructive regarding growing power demand, which is expected to support gas demand growth and infrastructure development [3] - There is a noted disconnect in valuations, particularly for ARRY, which is trading at a significant discount despite improved growth prospects [10] Risks and Considerations - Key risks for companies include lower commodity prices, execution risks on capital plans, and regulatory uncertainties [60] - Investors are advised to consider the potential for LNG cargo cancellations impacting the US gas market later in the decade [41] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted a positive outlook for several companies within the Energy, Utilities, and Mining sectors, driven by increasing power demand and strategic capital investments. However, investors should remain cautious of potential risks associated with commodity price fluctuations and execution challenges.

Core Viewpoint - EQT Corporation reported strong third-quarter earnings, with adjusted earnings per share of 52 cents, surpassing estimates, while revenues increased year-over-year but fell short of consensus expectations [3][4]. Financial Performance - Adjusted operating revenues rose to $1,753 million from $1,383 million year-over-year, although it missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,804 million [3]. - The company’s adjusted operating cash flow reached $1.22 billion, significantly up from $522 million a year ago, and free cash flow improved to $601 million from a negative $121 million [10]. Production and Sales - Sales volume increased to 634 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) from 581 Bcfe year-over-year, but it was below the estimate of 638 Bcfe [6]. - Natural gas sales volume was 596 Bcf, up from 547 Bcf, yet it also fell short of the estimate of 604 Bcf [6]. - Total liquid sales volume rose to 6,459 thousand barrels (MBbls) from 5,699 MBbls, exceeding the projection of 5,748 MBbls [6]. Commodity Prices - The average realized price for natural gas equivalent was $2.76 per thousand cubic feet (Mcfe), up from $2.38 year-over-year [7]. - The average natural gas price, including cash-settled derivatives, increased to $2.66 per Mcf from $2.23 [7]. - However, oil prices declined to $49.12 per barrel from $61.25 year-over-year, missing the estimate of $50.07 [8]. Expenses - Total operating expenses decreased to $1.36 billion from $1.57 billion year-over-year [9]. - Gathering expenses fell to 6 cents per Mcfe from 20 cents, and transmission expenses decreased to 40 cents per Mcfe from 43 cents [9]. Dividend Announcement - EQT declared a quarterly cash dividend of 16.50 cents per share for Q3 2025, reflecting a sequential increase of approximately 5%, payable on December 1, 2025 [5]. Capital Expenditures and Balance Sheet - Total capital expenditure was $618 million, up from $558 million year-over-year [11]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $236 million and net debt of $7.98 billion [11]. Guidance - For Q4 2025, EQT expects total sales volume between 550 and 600 Bcfe and has updated its total sales volume forecast for 2025 to 2,325-2,375 Bcfe [12]. - Projected capital expenditures for Q4 are between $635-$735 million, with full-year expectations of $2,300-$2,400 million [12]. Market Sentiment - There has been a downward trend in estimates, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 13.89% [13]. - EQT currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of an in-line return in the coming months [15].

Core Viewpoint - EQT is significantly increasing its investment focus on Asia, identifying the region as a major growth engine with compelling opportunities in private equity and infrastructure [1][2]. Investment Strategy - EQT raised over $10 billion for its ninth Asia private equity fund, the BPEA Private Equity Fund IX, which has a target of $12.5 billion [3]. - The firm plans to invest approximately $930 million in Douzone Bizon, a South Korean enterprise software provider [3]. Market Trends - Other private equity firms, such as KKR, are also shifting focus to Asia, with half of their 2025 private equity capital returns expected to come from the region [5]. - EQT's Asia strategy is based on a strong local presence to exploit "structural alpha opportunities" due to market inefficiencies compared to the U.S. and Europe [6][7]. Regional Focus - While many investors are cautious about China, EQT sees potential in early-stage investments driven by domestic demand rather than cross-border flows [8]. - The firm emphasizes sectors such as services, software, education, and financial services, which are less affected by geopolitical tensions [8]. Performance Insights - In 2020, China represented over 50% of Asia-Pacific private equity deal value, but this share dropped to 27% in 2024 [9]. - EQT's performance has been largely independent of monetary cycles, with the firm not relying on falling interest rates for future success [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - EQT Corporation is recognized as one of the best aggressive growth stocks to buy, with Scotiabank maintaining a Sector Perform rating and a price target of $70 following strong Q3 2025 results [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, EQT Corporation reported significant achievements in production, capital expenditure, and free cash flow, attributing this success to operational efficiencies [2]. - Capital expenditures for Q3 2025 were 10% lower than the midpoint of the company's guidance, resulting from ongoing efficiency gains and midstream cost optimization [3]. Operational Highlights - The company set multiple records during the quarter, including the highest pumping hours in a month, the fastest quarterly completion speed, and the most lateral footage drilled and completed in a 24-hour period [2]. - EQT Corporation had a strong and oversubscribed open season for its MVP boost expansion project, leading to a 20% increase in the project's size [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Potential catalysts for EQT Corporation include continued synergy capture from Equitrans, a target to reduce total debt to a maximum of $5 billion, ongoing optimization of the gathering system, and direct supply agreements [4]. - EQT Corporation operates as a vertically integrated natural gas company, focusing on production and midstream operations primarily in the Appalachian Basin [4].

Core Insights - Investors have reacted negatively to disappointing earnings reports from companies like Netflix and Chipotle, leading to significant declines in their stock prices [1][2] - The overall performance of S&P 500 companies has been positive, but the rewards for beating earnings expectations have been minimal, while penalties for missing expectations have been severe [2][4] Earnings Performance - Companies that missed earnings expectations experienced an average stock decline of nearly 5% around their earnings release, which is worse than the five-year average decline of -2.6% [3][8] - Conversely, companies that beat earnings expectations saw an average stock increase of only 0.1%, below the five-year average increase of 0.9% [3][5] Market Sentiment - The current earnings season has shown a trend where traders are more pessimistic, despite a record number of positive earnings surprises among S&P 500 companies [4][5] - Over 64% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded consensus EPS estimates by at least one standard deviation, compared to a historical average of 49% over the past 25 years [5][8] Macro Environment - The earnings season is taking place against a backdrop of macroeconomic volatility, including renewed trade policy uncertainty and concerns regarding bank lending [9]