Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how Huazhu has leveraged high commission rates to enhance its performance, positioning itself as a leading player in the hotel industry despite challenges faced by its franchisees [4][7][36]. Group 1: Commission Structure and Revenue - Huazhu's overall commission rate is estimated to reach 12%, significantly higher than Ctrip's hotel booking commission rate of approximately 8%-10% [4][26]. - In 2025, Huazhu's total revenue is projected to be 800 billion, with franchisees contributing 703 billion, and Huazhu earning 87 billion from franchisees, resulting in a commission rate of 12.38% [25][26]. - Huazhu has managed to collect service fees from Ctrip, amounting to 1.12 billion and 1.46 billion in 2023 and 2024, respectively, effectively recouping nearly half of its commission expenses [11][12]. Group 2: Franchisee Challenges - Many franchisees report difficulties due to a lack of distance protection, leading to multiple franchises opening within close proximity, which has resulted in declining single-store revenue [7][43]. - Franchisees are increasingly dissatisfied, with reports of high turnover among store managers and complaints about operational inefficiencies [41][46]. - The average occupancy rate and daily room price for Huazhu's franchisees have declined, with single-store revenue dropping from 637 million to 630 million [43][44]. Group 3: Membership and User Base - Huazhu has built a robust membership system, with over 300 million members as of Q3 2025, contributing significantly to its order volume [15][16]. - The central reservation system accounted for 65.1% of Huazhu's room nights, indicating a lower reliance on OTA platforms compared to competitors [16][17]. Group 4: Expansion and Market Strategy - Huazhu has aggressively expanded its franchise model, increasing the number of franchise hotels from 5,746 to 10,380 between 2020 and 2024 [30][31]. - The company has focused on upgrading older hotels, with the proportion of outdated stores dropping from 29% to 4%, while newer versions have increased from 34% to 71% [32][35]. - Despite the rapid expansion, the competitive landscape has intensified, leading to franchisee concerns about profitability and market saturation [38][46].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Hotel Sector - **Context**: The industry is transitioning into a more normalized phase after post-pandemic volatility, with supply growth slowing due to structural reasons [1][4] Core Insights - **Supply Growth**: - Supply growth has decelerated from double-digit expansion in 1H25 to approximately 7-8% year-over-year in 2H25, and further to 5-6% in 4Q25. This trend is expected to continue into 2026 [4] - Factors contributing to this slowdown include softer RevPAR performance and the end of the post-pandemic rebound, leading to more cautious investment decisions [4] - **RevPAR Outlook**: - Both H World and Atour expect RevPAR to improve year-over-year in 2026, but with differing levels of optimism. H World is more positive about a return to growth, while Atour remains cautious due to macro uncertainties, particularly in business travel [4] - **Regulatory Environment**: - Regulatory scrutiny on Trip.com is expected to have limited direct impact on large hotel groups like H World and Atour, as Trip.com accounts for a small percentage of their traffic. However, it may improve industry transparency and pricing norms [5] Company-Specific Insights - **H World and Atour**: - Both companies are expected to outgrow the industry with sustainable hotel expansion and projected EPS CAGRs of 19% and 27% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [1] - H World and Atour are trading at P/E ratios of 20x and 17x for 2026E, respectively, following strong performance in 2025 [1] - **Atour's Retail Business**: - Atour's retail segment is viewed as a core engine for long-term revenue growth, targeting a five-year CAGR of over 15%, which is expected to outpace hotel revenue growth. The current retail revenue constitutes about 40% of total revenue [5] - The total market for Atour's retail products is approximately RMB 300 billion, with significant room for growth as online penetration and brand awareness increase [5] Additional Considerations - **Market Performance**: - In 2025, H World and Atour's stock prices increased by 42% and 47%, respectively, compared to a 28% increase in MSCI China [1] - **Investment Recommendation**: - The recommendation is to accumulate Atour shares, given its growth potential and current valuation compared to H World [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The lodging industry in China is experiencing a shift towards quality growth, with consumers prioritizing "value-for-quality" as spending power has not fully recovered [3][11] - Domestic travel showed resilience in 2025, with a 18% year-over-year (YoY) growth in domestic travel, although per capita spending decreased by 6% YoY [3][18] - The lodging industry is still under pressure, with overall RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) remaining sluggish due to oversupply and slow business travel recovery [3][29] Company-Specific Insights H World (HTHT US / 1179 HK) - **Recommendation**: Outperform with a target price of USD 59 / HKD 46, benefiting from an asset-light business transformation aimed at expanding margins [3][11][60] - **Financial Performance**: - Expected RevPAR growth of 4% YoY in 2026, with EBITDA margins projected to increase from 29% in 2024 to 35% in 2026 [4][11] - Net income forecasted to rise from RMB 3,048 million in 2024 to RMB 5,433 million in 2026 [4] - **Market Position**: H World is focusing on midscale and upper midscale segments, with 53% of its portfolio in these categories as of Q3 2025 [34] - **Direct Booking Strategy**: Direct bookings have reached 80%, reducing reliance on online travel agencies (OTAs) [3][37] Atour (ATAT US) - **Recommendation**: Outperform with a target price of USD 48 [3][11][60] - **Financial Performance**: - Expected RevPAR growth of 3% YoY in 2026, with EBITDA margins projected to stabilize around 24% [4] - Revenue growth forecasted to increase from RMB 9,783.9 million in 2025 to RMB 14,107.7 million in 2027 [9] - **Market Position**: Atour is well-positioned in the midscale segment, with a focus on quality hotels and a strategic goal of operating 2,000 quality hotels [34] Jinjiang (600754 CH) - **Recommendation**: Underperform with a target price of RMB 20 [3][11][60] - **Financial Performance**: - Expected RevPAR growth of 3% YoY in 2026, but lower operating efficiency compared to peers [4][11] - Revenue forecasted to increase from RMB 13,464.9 million in 2025 to RMB 15,039.7 million in 2027 [10] - **Market Position**: Jinjiang is focusing on the midscale segment, which accounts for 62% of its total network, but faces challenges with older properties needing renovation [34] Key Trends and Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: There is a notable shift towards quality accommodations at reasonable prices, with consumers prioritizing value over luxury [34] - **Direct Booking Growth**: Major hotel groups are enhancing their membership systems and direct booking channels, leading to improved customer loyalty [3][37] - **Market Dynamics**: The hotel industry is experiencing a consolidation phase, with leading brands gaining market share despite overall sluggish RevPAR recovery [3][29] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected RevPAR growth, prolonged recovery in business travel, and market competition leading to potential market-share loss [13][47] - Jinjiang faces specific challenges related to its operating efficiency and the need for a turnaround in its overseas business [11][13] Conclusion The lodging industry in China is navigating a complex landscape characterized by a focus on quality growth and changing consumer preferences. Leading companies like H World and Atour are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, while Jinjiang faces challenges that may hinder its performance relative to peers.

Core Viewpoint - The current hotel industry is at a historical cycle bottom, with stock prices leading the fundamental recovery, suggesting a valuation repair is gradually starting [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The hotel industry is expected to enter a new normal growth phase, with leading companies showing resilience in performance due to supply-side adjustments and demand policy options [2] - The RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) for leading hotels is anticipated to rebound as the industry stabilizes, with a shift from occupancy-focused strategies to optimal RevPAR strategies [2] - The hotel REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) are providing capitalized opportunities for leading companies with operational efficiency advantages [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Leading hotel companies have shown non-linear growth characteristics, driven by cyclical turning points and capital integration, with long-term focus on scale and efficiency [1] - The valuation of leading hotels is influenced by macro supply-demand mismatches, with historical peaks reaching 40-50x during upcycles and dropping to 15-20x during downcycles [1] - Companies like Huazhu have demonstrated significant valuation expansion during mid-upgrade phases, while Atour has shown resilience by leveraging retail business to enhance valuation during industry downturns [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate a divergence among companies, with leading firms benefiting from improved pricing power and operational efficiencies [2] - The growth of leisure travel and the decline in business travel demand are contributing to a favorable outlook for the hotel sector, supported by service consumption policies [2] - The ongoing valuation repair phase is characterized by different growth trajectories among leading companies, with Atour and Huazhu leading the charge in performance recovery [3]

Core Insights - The hospitality and travel industry is facing a critical challenge where customer service is no longer just a response center but a key operational node that impacts conversion rates, repurchase rates, and service efficiency [3] - Travelers are increasingly impatient, prioritizing immediate responses over cleanliness or food quality, leading to rising labor costs exceeding 30% [3][4] Group 1: AI Integration in Customer Service - The integration of AI in customer service is evolving from a simple response system to a comprehensive concierge service that can drive repurchase [7] - AI can reduce ineffective inquiries and compress interaction rounds through dual engines of itinerary and location [7] - The boundaries of proactive care are defined by time thresholds, types of benefits, and push frequency [7] Group 2: Human-AI Collaboration in Customer Service - There is a need to identify which services should be handled by AI and which should remain human-operated across pre-stay, in-stay, and post-stay phases [8] - Examples of both successful and failed cases of intelligent distribution and human-machine collaboration are discussed [8] Group 3: Unique Challenges of AI in Hospitality - The hospitality sector cannot simply adopt retail models for AI customer service due to different operational needs [8] - The effectiveness boundary between scene-level knowledge graphs and Q&A knowledge bases is highlighted [8] - Compliance and safety issues arise when agents transition from "suggestion" to "execution" [8]

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry is experiencing a dichotomy, with some players struggling while others thrive through innovation in operations and business models, emphasizing efficiency and cash flow health over mere expansion [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The economic hotel segment is shrinking, with brands like Pudding Hotel and Wan Feng exiting the market, while leading players like Huazhu and Atour are leveraging "stay + retail" and AI technology to enhance their operations [1][3]. - The focus has shifted from opening new locations to improving operational efficiency and innovating business models, as the era of aggressive expansion is over [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Challenges - The hotel industry is capital-intensive, with long payback periods, particularly for mid-range hotels, which now have a return cycle extending to 5-6 years, compounded by tightening financing conditions [3][4]. - Many innovative ideas are hindered by a lack of funding, as hotels face significant financial pressure [3][4]. Group 3: Digital Hotel Solutions - A new digital hotel solution has emerged, aiming to tokenize future revenue rights of hotels into digital equity, allowing public investors to purchase these rights [4][6]. - For example, a hotel with 300 rooms can issue 20,000 digital rights at 2,000 yuan each, generating 40 million yuan in cash without incurring debt, effectively "securitizing" future room revenues [6][7]. Group 4: Benefits of Digital Solutions - This approach provides quick capital for hotels, allowing them to bypass traditional financing routes and directly attract market investment [7][9]. - Tokenizing assets enhances liquidity, enabling holders to transfer rights in a compliant secondary market, thus unlocking the value of previously illiquid assets [7][9]. - The model fosters a win-win ecosystem where equity holders are also long-term customers, enhancing customer loyalty and trust through transparent digital technology [7][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - With the influx of funds from digital equity sales, hotels can further develop their "stay + retail" offerings, creating more sophisticated environments and products [9][10]. - The integration of AI with clear user profiles and blockchain data can lead to more precise service delivery and automated management of rights [9][10]. - The hotel industry is likely to evolve into a multifaceted value platform that combines investment, consumption, and brand experience, moving beyond traditional accommodation services [10].

Summary of Hotel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The hotel industry is experiencing an upward trend driven by supply-demand dynamics and structural optimization, with a significant mismatch in supply and demand in 2023 due to a post-pandemic demand surge while supply lagged behind, leading to increased Average Daily Rates (ADR) [1][2] - The chain hotel rate in China is approximately 40%, lower than over 70% in the U.S., indicating potential for growth in the chain hotel segment, particularly in the economy sector [1][10] Key Insights - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The pandemic caused a significant reduction in hotel supply, with recovery to pre-pandemic levels only occurring in 2023 and 2024. The mismatch in supply and demand has led to a notable increase in ADR, attracting single hotels back into the market, which disrupts the chain rate [2][4] - **Challenges Facing the Industry**: The hotel industry faces challenges such as oversupply, deteriorating operations, and intense competition. Single hotels are heavily reliant on Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) for customer acquisition, facing high commission rates, while large chain hotels are reducing dependence on OTAs through proprietary channels [5][6][8] - **Investor Sentiment**: Despite low returns, investors are attracted to the hotel industry due to stable cash flows, reasonable payback periods (5-6 years, with some regions achieving 4 years), and opportunities for property transformation [5][9] Performance of Major Brands - **Huazhu Group**: The group operates approximately 11,000 to 12,000 stores, with improvements in RevPAR for its economy brands (Hanting, Haiyou) and mid-to-high-end brand (Quanjing) in Q4 2026. However, most other brands have not shown recovery, indicating that the recovery is not widespread across the industry [12][14] - **Investment Returns**: There are significant differences in returns when investing in different hotel brands. For instance, Quanjing has shown higher premiums compared to Jinjiang's Vienna brand, which has performed poorly [13] Future Trends and Recommendations - **Chain Rate Trends**: The chain rate is expected to continue growing, particularly in the luxury and mid-to-high-end segments, while the economy segment may see a decline due to the influx of single hotels [4][9] - **Impact of Policy Changes**: Upcoming policy changes, such as the potential expansion of holiday systems, are expected to positively impact travel and hotel demand, creating more opportunities for the industry [17] - **Recommendations for Investors**: Focus on large chain brands like Huazhu, which have shown strong growth potential. However, due to Huazhu not being available on the Hong Kong Stock Connect, investors are recommended to consider Shoulv, which is showing positive trends [18][19] Conclusion - The hotel industry is in a stabilization phase, with signs of recovery in select brands. However, the overall recovery is not expected to be uniform across the industry, and competition is likely to intensify as single hotels engage in price wars. Investors should prioritize large chain brands with strong growth momentum for future investments [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the industry, highlighting a favorable outlook for the tourism and leisure sectors due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and service spending [1][35]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of domestic tourism, with expected growth rates of 12% in revenue and 18% in visitor numbers for Q1-Q3 2025, driven by sustained leisure travel demand and the rise of experiential consumption [1][35]. - The overall tourism market is projected to grow by over 10% for the year, supported by government initiatives such as promoting spring and autumn travel and issuing cultural tourism consumption vouchers [1][35]. - Key companies recommended for investment include China Duty Free Group, Jin Jiang Hotels, Shouqi Group, Tongcheng Travel, and Ctrip Group, alongside high-growth tea beverage stocks like Gu Ming and low-valuation restaurant growth stocks like Green Tea Group [1][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Restaurant Sector - Offline consumption is gradually recovering, with Q4 restaurant revenue showing steady growth, achieving 519.9 billion and 605.7 billion yuan in October and November 2025, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.99% and 4.40% [7][10]. - Leading restaurant companies are recovering faster than the industry average, with significant revenue increases noted for major players [10][14]. 2. Tea Beverage Sector - The tea beverage sector has seen a surge in same-store sales growth due to delivery subsidies, with leading brands like Gu Ming and Hu Shang A Yi maintaining high growth rates of 15-20% [7][10][14]. - The number of new store openings has doubled compared to 2024, indicating aggressive expansion strategies among top brands [16]. 3. OTA (Online Travel Agency) - The recovery of outbound travel demand is evident, with strong performance in Southeast Asia routes and a notable increase in visitor numbers to Japan and South Korea [20][24]. - The report highlights the long-term profit potential of leading OTA companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel, driven by the ongoing recovery in leisure travel demand and improved commission rates [24][25]. 4. Hotel Sector - The hotel industry is expected to see a stable RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) in Q4, with a year-on-year growth of 6-8% in room supply [29][30]. - Major hotel chains like Shouqi and Jin Jiang are projected to maintain or improve their performance, benefiting from cost reductions and increased guest traffic during holiday periods [29][30][31]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the travel sector, particularly companies involved in OTA, hotels, and scenic spots, as they are likely to benefit from favorable government policies [1][35]. - Additionally, it recommends investing in high-growth tea beverage stocks and undervalued restaurant growth stocks, indicating a diversified approach to capitalizing on the recovery in consumer spending [1][35].

Core Insights - The hotel industry is facing a significant downturn, with many brands struggling to maintain profitability and market presence as evidenced by the forced delisting of Buding Hotels and the sudden closure of Marriott's Hangzhou hotel [1][2] - Economic hotel room availability is declining, with only 54% of the market share remaining by the end of 2024, and major players like Jinjiang, Shoulv, and Huazhu are shifting focus from expansion to renovation of existing properties [1][3] - The competitive landscape is evolving from a focus on scale to one emphasizing quality and innovation, with a notable shift towards the "stay + retail" model as a new revenue stream [5][6] Industry Trends - The global hotel industry is experiencing high saturation, with new brand survival rates below 35%, leading to significant closures among older, less profitable properties [3] - Major hotel groups are reporting mixed financial results, with Huazhu leading in occupancy rates and revenue per available room (RevPAR), while Jinjiang shows revenue decline despite profit growth [4] - The shift towards a "quality era" in the hotel industry is marked by a focus on operational efficiency, cost control, and innovative business models rather than mere expansion [4][10] Innovations and Strategies - The integration of AI technology is transforming hotel operations, with predictions that 75% of hotels will automate processes by 2025, although the domestic market still lags in implementation [8][9] - The "stay + retail" model is gaining traction, with hotels like Atour and Hanting introducing retail options that enhance guest experiences and increase non-room revenue [5][6] - Future success in the hotel industry will depend on the ability to offer tailored products and services that meet the diverse needs of different customer segments, alongside maintaining quality control in a franchise-heavy environment [10]

Summary of Hotel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The hotel industry is experiencing a shift towards improved ecosystem regulation, particularly with the removal of "choose one" clauses, which may restore pricing autonomy to hotels and enhance profitability through better inventory management and rental rates [1][2] Key Points Pricing and Distribution - The return of pricing power to hotels is expected to benefit chain hotels significantly, allowing them to strengthen direct sales channels and reduce reliance on Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) [1][2] - Chain hotels like Huazhu and Jinjiang have a high proportion of direct sales, with Huazhu's direct sales at approximately 65% and Jinjiang at about 30% [1][4] - Independent hotels, which heavily depend on OTAs, will benefit from unified pricing across platforms, potentially lowering commission costs and improving profitability [1][4] Market Dynamics - JD.com's entry into the hotel and travel market has been unsuccessful due to inadequate preparation, lack of domestic inventory support, and insufficient supply chain capabilities [5][6] - The hotel investment sentiment is becoming more cautious, with a decrease in new property acquisitions and a focus on evaluating investment returns amid rising labor costs [3][16] Regulatory Impact - The investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation into unfair competition practices among online platforms is expected to optimize the online platform structure, potentially allowing hotels to regain pricing power and reduce commission rates from 15% to 10% or 12% [2][9] Supply and Demand Trends - The supply growth rate in the chain hotel market is expected to slow down in 2026, with fewer new properties being signed and a focus on rebranding existing hotels [12] - Business travel demand is anticipated to remain stable, with slight increases in costs for corporate housing agreements [13] - The influx of inbound tourists is projected to rise due to visa-free policies, positively impacting domestic hotel demand [14] Performance Metrics - The average occupancy rates vary significantly among brands, with Huazhu at around 82% and Atour at approximately 70%, while many independent hotels struggle with rates as low as 45% [17] Future Outlook - The hotel industry is cautiously optimistic for the first half of 2026, with expectations of slight growth for major brands like Huazhu and Jinjiang, driven by seasonal demand and increased holiday durations [10][11] Additional Insights - The fair distribution of platform traffic is likely to favor chain hotels by eliminating paid promotion rankings, thus enhancing their visibility and conversion rates [7][8] - The overall sentiment in the industry is positive regarding the recent regulatory changes, which are seen as beneficial for both operators and consumers [9]