Core Insights - Bitcoin price has underperformed despite a more than 10% drop in the US Dollar Index over the past year, leading to confusion among investors [1] - JPMorgan strategists attribute Bitcoin's failure to rise to the weakening dollar primarily to short-term market flows and sentiment rather than fundamental changes in US economic growth or monetary policy [2][3] Group 1: Bitcoin and US Dollar Relationship - Historically, Bitcoin price tends to move inversely to the US Dollar, but recent trends show a divergence [2] - The current weakness in the US dollar is seen as temporary, with potential recovery in the US economy likely to boost the dollar index [3] - Interest rate differentials have shifted in favor of the US dollar since the beginning of the year, indicating that the current dollar selloff is driven by market sentiment rather than structural changes [3] Group 2: Bitcoin vs. Precious Metals - Gold has reached a historic high of $5,500 amid the dollar's weakness, while Bitcoin remains rangebound, suggesting it is behaving more like a risk asset than a store of value [4] - JPMorgan believes that until currency markets are influenced by growth and rate dynamics instead of sentiment, Bitcoin may continue to lag behind traditional macro hedges [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - Recent data indicates $1.8 billion in outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting declining institutional confidence in Bitcoin [5] - The Glassnode report highlights that Bitcoin is consolidating with low trading volumes, and long-term holders have sold approximately 143,000 BTC in the past 30 days, marking the fastest distribution since August 2025 [6]

1月29日，挪威央行投资管理（Norges Bank Investment Management）正式发布 2025 年年度投资报告。 数据显示，全球最大主权财富基金之一的挪威政府全球养老基金（Government Pension Fund Global，GPFG）在2025年实现15.1%的整体回报率，基金规模 于2025年12月31日达到21.268万亿挪威克朗（约合15.47万亿人民币）。 从基金规模变动细节来看，2025年基金会计收益达2.362万亿克朗（约1.72万亿人民币），但受挪威克朗对多国主要货币升值影响，汇率因素导致基金价值 缩水。同时，扣除管理费用后的资金净流入为319亿克朗，多重因素共同作用下，基金全年规模净增1.526万亿克朗。 从资产类别表现来看，权益类投资成为基金收益的核心驱动力。2025年，基金股票投资回报率高达19.3%，显著跑赢其他资产类别。其中，科技、金融及 基础材料板块表现尤为突出，贡献了权益投资的主要收益。挪威央行投资管理首席执行官尼古拉・丹根（Nicolai Tangen）在声明中强调："2025年基金交 出了极具说服力的成绩单，科技、金融与基础材料领域的优质股票持续 ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are the leading financial advisers in the global retail M&A sector for 2025, with JPMorgan leading in deal value and Morgan Stanley in deal count [1][2] Deal Value Summary - JPMorgan advised on retail M&A transactions worth $44.5 billion in 2025, ranking first in total deal value [1] - Morgan Stanley followed in second place with $37.9 billion in advised retail deals, benefiting from several significant transactions [2] - Goldman Sachs ranked third with $33.2 billion, Citi fourth with $29.2 billion, and UBS fifth with $28.4 billion [3] Deal Count Summary - Morgan Stanley recorded the highest number of mandates in the retail sector, working on 11 announced deals [1] - UBS also completed 11 transactions, sharing the upper ranks with Morgan Stanley [3] - Rothschild & Co advised on 11 deals, while JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs each worked on nine deals in the retail segment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold is experiencing an unprecedented rise, with predictions from JPMorgan suggesting it could reach between $8,000 and $8,500 if private investor allocations increase to 4.6% from the current 3% of their portfolios [2][3]. Group 1: Price Predictions and Market Sentiment - JPMorgan's global market strategist, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, indicates that an increase in private investor allocations to gold could lead to a significant price surge [2]. - Gold's price is on the verge of reaching $5,600 per ounce, following a 10% increase in just four trading sessions, reflecting a strong investor sentiment towards precious metals [4]. - The combined market value of gold and silver has surpassed $41 trillion, indicating a notable shift in investor focus towards these assets [4]. Group 2: Portfolio Allocation and Economic Context - Panigirtzoglou suggests that gold could serve as a partial replacement for bonds in a balanced portfolio due to current economic policies [3]. - The analyst has cautioned about potential risks, noting that commodity trading advisers are heavily invested in gold and silver, which may lead to near-term pullbacks due to profit-taking [3]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Over the past year, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) has seen a remarkable increase of 94.56% [5].

The price of gold has been on an unprecedented upward trajectory, with a JPMorgan analyst predicting that it could reach $8,500.Gold Could Breach $8,000 On Allocation ShiftJPMorgan’s global market strategist, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, has suggested that the price of gold could surge to the range of $8,000-$8,500 if private investor allocations to the precious metal increase to 4.6% from the current 3% of their portfolios, as reported by MarketWatch on Thursday.Panigirtzoglou’s assessment is based on the noti ...

When Argentina needed a loan, JPMorgan stepped in to bolster its dwindling stash of dollars. It's a familiar spot for the Wall Street bank with deep ties to the country and its leader https://t.co/PcnpCYKNow ...

Who Is J.P.Morgan? The Enforcer of Dollar Hegemony, a Temple of Finance, and Bitcoin's Staunch OpponentAt the heart of JPMorgan Chase’s power lies its command over the global U.S. dollar clearing network. In the realm of cross-border payments and international settlements, the bank has become an irreplaceable hub. But such a vast network does not come without barriers. JPMorgan’s standards for compliance and risk control are regarded as the “global gold standard,” and its account onboarding process is notor ...

Group 1: Core Insights - JPMorgan and Houlihan Lokey are the leading financial advisers for M&A in the TMT sector for 2025, with JPMorgan leading in deal value and Houlihan Lokey in deal volume [1][4] - JPMorgan advised on transactions totaling $435.5 billion, while Houlihan Lokey participated in 94 deals, just short of 100 [1][5] - Morgan Stanley ranks third in deal value with $253.4 billion, followed closely by Goldman Sachs at $237.2 billion and Allen & Company at $235.6 billion [2] Group 2: Transaction Volume - In terms of transaction volume, Morgan Stanley also holds the third position with 59 deals, followed by Goldman Sachs with 49 and Evercore with 43 [3] - JPMorgan advised on 32 billion-dollar deals, including seven mega deals valued over $10 billion, contributing significantly to its lead in deal value [5] - Houlihan Lokey's deal volume was significantly higher than JPMorgan's, which had 65 deals, placing it second in volume [5] Group 3: Data Source and Methodology - GlobalData's league tables are based on real-time tracking of various reliable sources, including company and advisory firm websites [5][6] - A dedicated team of analysts monitors these sources to gather detailed information on each deal, including adviser names [5]

她续称，当经济增长及利率重新成为主导因素时，该行倾向在欧元兑美元升至1.18至1.2以上时进行淡仓 操作。不过，澳元及新兴市场货币等对增长更敏感的币种，仍可能延续相对美元的强势。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通私人银行亚洲宏观策略主管唐雨旋称，近期走势亦进一步支持持有黄金， 以及在投资组合中合理配置非美元资产。新兴市场资产不论在当前环境，或在美元流向因素消退、回到 全球经济增长加速格局时，均具吸引力。该行的美元多元化策略框架建议，将投资组合约三成配置于具 备良好流动性及深度的非美元市场。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 唐雨旋表示，近期美元走弱，并非源于增长或货币政策预期的转变。事实上，自年初以来，利差走势反 而偏向美元有利。目前所见情况，与去年四月相似，主要是资金流向及市场情绪推动美元抛售。该行认 为，此情况最终属暂时性，正如去年一样。随着今年美国经济逐步回暖，美元有望重新企稳。 ...

Core Insights - The weaker dollar has not led to the expected rally in bitcoin, which has instead lost 13% over the past year despite the Dollar Index (DXY) dropping 10% [1][2] - The current dollar decline is attributed to short-term flows and sentiment rather than changes in growth or monetary policy expectations, with interest rate differentials still favoring the dollar [2][3] - Bitcoin's behavior indicates it is trading more like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a traditional store of value, with gold and other hard assets benefiting more from dollar weakness [4][5] Group 1 - The Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 10% in the past year, while bitcoin has lost 13% during the same period [1] - J.P. Morgan Private Bank suggests that the dollar's decline is driven by sentiment and flows, not by fundamental economic changes [2] - Interest rate differentials have actually moved in favor of the USD since the beginning of the year, indicating that the current dollar selloff is not based on economic fundamentals [3] Group 2 - Bitcoin has not acted as a classic hedge against dollar weakness, remaining range-bound while gold and other assets have rallied [4] - The lack of a clear shift in monetary policy expectations means that dollar weakness alone is insufficient to attract new capital into the crypto markets [5] - Until growth or rate dynamics become the primary drivers of currency markets, bitcoin may continue to lag behind traditional macro hedges [6]