JPMorgan’s CEO says America’s latest tariffs could dampen an economy that was “already weakening.”In his annual letter to shareholders, published Monday (April 7), Jamie Dimon argues that there are several uncertainties tied to the tariff policy: the effect on confidence, investments, corporate profits and the U.S. dollar, as well as retaliation by other countries.“The quicker this issue is resolved, the better because some of the negative effects increase cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse ...

About this content About Oliver Haill Oliver has been writing about companies and markets since the early 2000s, cutting his teeth as a financial journalist at Growth Company Investor with a focusing on AIM companies and small caps, before a few years later becoming a section editor and then head of research. He joined Proactive after a couple of years freelancing, where he worked for the Financial Times Group, ITV, Press Association, Reuters sports desk, the London Olympic News Service, Rugby World Cup ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted that the tariffs announced by President Trump are likely to increase prices on both domestic and imported goods, which could further slow down an already weakening U.S. economy [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The newly announced tariffs are expected to have significant short-term inflationary effects on both imported and domestic goods due to rising input costs and increased demand for domestic products [2]. - Dimon expressed uncertainty about whether the tariffs will lead to a recession, but he confirmed that they will slow down economic growth [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Dimon is the first major Wall Street bank CEO to publicly comment on Trump's tariff policy during a time of significant market volatility, with U.S. equities experiencing their worst week since the onset of the Covid pandemic [3]. - The announcement of tariffs has caused a shock in global markets, leading to a notable decline in stock prices [3]. Group 3: Uncertainties and Recommendations - Dimon noted that Trump's tariff policy has introduced numerous uncertainties, including effects on global capital flows, the dollar, corporate profits, and responses from trading partners [4]. - He emphasized the importance of resolving tariff issues quickly to mitigate cumulative negative effects that could be difficult to reverse over time [5].

Group 1 - The banking sector is experiencing challenges due to broader economic trends, particularly influenced by ongoing tariff uncertainties [3][4][10] - Major banks like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley are set to report Q1 results, with expectations reflecting a mix of slight declines and increases in earnings and revenues [12][13][14] - The Zacks Major Banks industry is projected to see a 0.7% increase in earnings and a 5.3% increase in revenues for Q1 2025, indicating resilience despite economic pressures [15] Group 2 - Loan demand has shown modest acceleration, but concerns remain about sustainability in the current macroeconomic environment [6][10] - Credit quality issues are evident, particularly in the commercial real estate market, but recent trends in bankruptcies and credit card delinquencies suggest some stabilization [7][10] - The investment banking sector is likely to be significantly impacted by deteriorating market sentiment, with expectations for a rebound in deal pipelines being delayed [11] Group 3 - The overall earnings expectations for Q1 2025 indicate a 6% increase in earnings and a 3.7% increase in revenues, following a strong previous quarter [24] - Negative revisions to earnings estimates have been widespread across various sectors, with the Tech sector also facing downward adjustments due to market sentiment shifts [28][30] - Despite the challenges, the Tech sector is still expected to be a key growth driver, with projected earnings growth of 12.6% for Q1 2025 [31]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan is set to report its Q1 2025 earnings on April 11, with expectations of modest performance compared to previous quarters due to various economic pressures and rising costs [1][2][3]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 2025 revenues is $43.01 billion, indicating a 2.6% year-over-year growth [2]. - The earnings estimate for the upcoming quarter has been revised slightly upward to $4.60, reflecting a nearly 1% decline from the prior year due to increased provisions for credit losses and higher operating expenses [3][4]. Revenue Drivers - Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to be around $23.31 billion, showing a 1% growth year-over-year, supported by stable funding costs [9]. - Investment Banking (IB) fees are projected to grow by 13% year-over-year, with estimates for IB revenues at $2.61 billion [10][14]. - Markets revenues are anticipated to increase in low double digits, with equity markets revenues estimated at $3.1 billion and fixed-income markets revenues at $5.85 billion [15][16]. Cost and Expense Outlook - Non-interest expenses are expected to rise to $23.8 billion, reflecting a 4.5% increase year-over-year due to expansion efforts and technology investments [18]. - The provision for credit losses is estimated at $2.45 billion, indicating a cautious approach to potential loan defaults [19]. Asset Quality Concerns - The consensus estimate for non-performing loans (NPLs) is $9.32 billion, suggesting a 21.5% increase year-over-year, while non-performing assets (NPAs) are expected to rise to $9.82 billion [20][21]. Market Position and Valuation - JPMorgan's stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of 12.40X, above the industry average of 11.66X, indicating a premium valuation compared to peers like Citigroup and Bank of America [26]. - The company continues to leverage its scale and size, with the acquisition of First Republic Bank in 2023 enhancing its financial position [29]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focused on expanding its footprint and capitalizing on cross-selling opportunities, which may lead to higher investment-related expenses but are expected to benefit long-term prospects [29]. - Management's comments on NII and IB business prospects during the upcoming earnings call will be crucial for investors [30].

Group 1 - Proactive provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company focuses on medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive's news team delivers insights across various sectors including biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] Group 2 - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and improve content production [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Core Points - U.S. Treasury yields have significantly decreased, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4% due to fears of a global recession triggered by China's retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods [1][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield dropped over 16 basis points to 3.89%, marking the lowest level since October, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell over 22 basis points to 3.50% [2] - China announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods starting April 10, following President Trump's implementation of a 10% baseline tariff affecting over 180 countries, which has led to a surge in Treasury purchases for safety [3][4] - JPMorgan has increased the probability of a recession this year to 60% from 40%, citing that sustained tariff policies could push the U.S. and potentially the global economy into recession [4] - Investors are anticipating the nonfarm payrolls report, with expectations of a 140,000 job increase and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, which will provide insights into the U.S. economic health amid growth concerns [5] - A weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report could exacerbate recession fears, while a stronger report may be viewed as outdated due to the looming impact of tariffs on the job market [6]

Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase has significantly outperformed the U.S. banking sector over the past year, attributed to its best-in-class status [1] - The rebound in JPMorgan Chase's stock since the lows in early March has been particularly strong, indicating investor confidence in the bank [1]

Core Insights - J.P. Morgan Asset Management's JPMorgan Private Markets Fund has been added to the Schwab Alternative Investment OneSource platform, enhancing access to private market investments for a broader range of investors [1][2] - The fund offers a diversified portfolio of small and mid-market companies through co-investments and secondaries, typically available only to institutional investors [2] - The JPMorgan Private Markets Fund employs advanced investment strategies aimed at resilience and growth, managed by a team with over 40 years of experience in private markets [2] Company Overview - J.P. Morgan Asset Management manages $3.6 trillion in assets as of December 31, 2024, serving a diverse clientele including institutions, retail investors, and high net worth individuals globally [4] - JPMorgan Chase & Co. has $4.2 trillion in assets and $346 billion in stockholders' equity as of December 31, 2024, and is a leader in various financial services including investment banking and asset management [5]

Core Insights - J.P. Morgan Asset Management has launched the JPMorgan Nasdaq Hedged Equity Laddered Overlay ETF (HEQQ) on the Nasdaq Stock Market, expanding its Hedged Equity suite [1][2] - The new ETF aims to provide investors with a sophisticated strategy to navigate market volatility while capitalizing on the growth potential of the Nasdaq-100 Index [2][3] Product Features - HEQQ employs an options overlay strategy that offers laddered exposure through holding options for multiple hedge periods, aiming to reduce volatility during market uncertainty [2] - The fund is designed to provide consistent hedged exposure while benefiting from the tax efficiencies associated with the ETF structure [2] - HEQQ is paired with an actively-managed long equity portfolio focused on growth and technology, allowing investors to capture significant portions of the Nasdaq-100 Index while mitigating risk [2][3] Management Team - The portfolio management team is led by Hamilton Reiner, who has over 30 years of experience in derivatives investing and manages the largest actively managed ETF, JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) [3] - Reiner emphasizes that HEQQ enhances the options-based strategies portfolio and serves as a counterpart to HELO, focusing on enabling participation in market gains while mitigating downside risk [3] Pricing and Assets - The fund is priced at 50 basis points, making it a competitive option for investors seeking a balanced portfolio [3] - J.P. Morgan Asset Management manages assets totaling $3.6 trillion as of December 31, 2024, indicating its strong position in the investment management industry [5]