可灵 3.0 有望进一步推进技术前沿 买入（维持） 核心观点 快手-W 01024.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 核心观点：1 月初可灵海外出圈后，整个 1 月看收入和 DAU 端都保持相对高位，热度持 续性表现好。目前数据意义在于整体稳在更高水位后，从 1 月初主要在低 ARPU 地区流 量扩圈（如东南亚、中亚等）→高付费能力地区收入震荡爬升，预期后者对可灵 ARR 提升作用更大。此外新一代可灵 3.0 版本内测中，统一架构下工作流衔接性更好，且区 别于竞品的迭代在于原生文本输出，预计进一步推进技术前沿水平。产品层面更侧重于 专业创作各环节提效，若年前能全量使用，有望延续 1 月产品热度，带动需求释放。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年经调整归母净利润为 204/225/259 亿元。维持此前给予公司 26 年 18xPE 估值，对应合理价值为 4,048 亿 CNY，折合 4,542 亿 HKD（港币兑人 民币汇率 0.891），目标价 104.36 港元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 宏观消费恢复不及预期，国内商业化效率不及预期，海外业务亏损加大，可 灵技术迭代不及预期 公司主要 ...

Core Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of finding long-term growth amidst global economic uncertainty and the acceleration of Chinese companies going overseas [1] - The focus has shifted from mere expansion to a systematic examination of profitability, long-term operations, and localization understanding in overseas markets [1] Group 1: Market Focus and Strategy - Kuaishou's international commercialization head, Du Zheng, emphasized that Brazil has become a crucial market for Chinese companies going abroad, with a focus on understanding local needs and leveraging Chinese offerings [2] - The strategy for Brazil will involve brand building and consumer conversion, aiming for sustainable profitability while enhancing commercial capabilities to support partners [2] Group 2: Advertising and Content Strategy - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for overseas commercialization, transitioning from a single advertising logic to a comprehensive solution focused on real business growth [4] - Kuaishou's overseas brand advertising has expanded across various industries, including mobile, beauty, automotive, and home appliances, achieving growth despite market pressures [4] Group 3: Product and Operational Enhancements - Kuaishou is enhancing its commercial products to improve user engagement and extend advertising reach through innovative models like WiFi hotspots and offline scenarios [11] - The company is transitioning from manual to AI-driven advertising strategies to increase efficiency and reduce costs, aiming for more stable and precise conversion rates [11] Group 4: Brand Marketing and Emotional Connection - Kuaishou's brand marketing has shifted from mere exposure to emotional connection, utilizing local content marketing strategies to integrate brands into the Brazilian market effectively [13] - The company plans to continue focusing on emotional marketing in 2026, leveraging major events to help brands convert marketing budgets into long-term investments [15] Group 5: Channel Development and Policy Framework - Kuaishou has established a dual-track agency service model to enhance its channel ecosystem, achieving significant growth in new customer budgets and operational efficiency [15][16] - The company will maintain stable policies while supporting new industries and opportunities, with a focus on preventing policy abuse to ensure business growth certainty in 2026 [16][19]

Core Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of finding long-term growth amidst global economic uncertainty and the acceleration of Chinese companies going overseas [1] - The focus has shifted from mere scale expansion to a systematic examination of profitability, long-term operations, and localization understanding in overseas markets [1] Group 1: Market Focus and Strategy - Kuaishou's international commercialization head, Du Zheng, emphasized that Brazil has become a crucial market for Chinese companies going abroad, with Kuaishou focusing on brand building and consumer conversion [2] - The strategy for 2025 involves a dual approach of breaking through and deepening engagement in overseas commercialization [4] Group 2: Advertising and Content Strategy - The overseas advertising strategy is evolving from a single ad placement logic to a comprehensive solution focused on real business growth, covering various industries such as mobile, beauty, automotive, and home appliances [4] - Kuaishou aims to enhance advertising monetization through diverse content, particularly short dramas, and to integrate e-commerce businesses [6] Group 3: Product and Operational Enhancements - Kuaishou is implementing a dual-driven approach of "placement + operation" and "product + gameplay" to support client growth, optimizing the entire advertising process from foundational infrastructure to flow matching [7] - The product matrix has been expanded to include Kwai Pro, Kwai Lite, and SnackVideo, enhancing user engagement and introducing innovative monetization models [9] Group 4: Brand Marketing and Emotional Connection - The focus of brand marketing is shifting from "strong exposure" to "emotional connection," with Kuaishou leveraging local community engagement through various content marketing projects [11] - For 2026, Kuaishou plans to continue using emotional marketing as a key strategy, integrating major cultural events to help brands convert marketing budgets into long-term investments [13] Group 5: Channel Development and Policy - Kuaishou has achieved significant progress in building a dual-track agency service model for its overseas channel ecosystem, leading to rapid growth in new customer budgets [15] - The company will maintain a stable policy framework while supporting new industries and opportunities, with a focus on preventing policy arbitrage [17]

里昂发布研报称，预计快手-W(01024)2025年第四季的总收入同比增长10%至388亿元人民币，而经调整 净利润则料升16%至54亿元人民币。该行上调公司2026/27年经调整净利润预测2%，并将目标价由83港 元调升至85港元，重申跑赢大市评级。该行表示，快手旗下可灵AI的收入表现或持续超出预期，相信 该平台在成本效益方面具备显著优势，其用户规模与收入增长势头应能持续加速。 ...

里昂发布研报称，预计快手-W(01024)2025年第四季的总收入同比增长10%至388亿元人民币，而经调整 净利润则料升16%至54亿元人民币。该行上调公司2026/27年经调整净利润预测2%，并将目标价由83港 元调升至85港元，重申跑赢大市评级。该行表示，快手旗下可灵AI的收入表现或持续超出预期，相信 该平台在成本效益方面具备显著优势，其用户规模与收入增长势头应能持续加速。 ...

里昂发表研报，预计快手2025年第四季的总收入同比增长10%至388亿元，而经调整净利润同比增长 16%至54亿元。该行上调公司2026/27年经调整净利润预测2%，并将目标价由83港元上调至85港元，重 申"跑赢大市"评级。该行表示，快手旗下可灵AI的收入表现或持续超出预期，相信该平台在成本效益方 面具备显著优势，其用户规模与收入增长势头应能持续加速。 ...

快手被罚，显示出直播电商常态化监管的力度。监管技术的进步，堵住了平台利用复杂业态和信息不对 称来规避责任的后路。任何平台都不能再以"探索新模式"为借口，漠视消费者权益、破坏市场公平、挑 战法律底线。 罚款2669.29万元！近日，市场监管总局公布了对快手电商平台运营主体成都快购科技有限公司的处罚 结果，处罚力度和案件细节震动了整个平台经济领域。 快手的违法事实清楚，比如曾经上热搜的"太原老葛""大LOGO"等头部主播虚假宣传案件，以及辛巴假 糖水燕窝事件，都和快手有关系。 中消协曾多次点名快手。早在2020年，中消协就曾发布《直播电商购物消费者满意度在线调查报告》， 指出快手54.7%的交易需要跳转到第三方平台，36.0%的主播引导进行线下交易，高于抖音的29.6%。报 告还指出，受访者对快手的购物满意度低于行业整体满意度，在包括淘宝、天猫、京东、抖音在内的主 流平台中，快手是最低的。 快手被罚，意料之中。但俗话说，说话听声、锣鼓听音，快手受重罚，还被监管部门当作典型案例点名 批评，敲打的可不只是快手。 比如，快手违法行为的第一条"未在首页显著位置持续公示证照信息"，消费者在其他平台也没怎么见 过；第二条，对 ...

1月30日，市场监管总局在新闻发布会上公布了第五批直播电商领域典型案例，快手全资子公司成都快购科技有限公司因七项违法行为被罚没2669万 元。成都快购成立于2019年，是短视频平台快手的全资子公司，主要负责快手电商业务"快手小店"。处罚决定的背后，反映出平台企业在快速增长期对 合规经营的忽视，以及监管部门对直播电商行业日益收紧的监管趋势。 此外，总局通过分批发布典型案例的形式，点名通报了一批由地方市场监管部门查处的企业，主要包括：对商家资质审核失职的私域直播平台"小鹅 通"运营方深圳小鹅网络技术有限公司（罚款36万元）、进行虚假宣传的带货主体山西老葛商贸有限公司（累计罚款560万元）等。这些举措共同释放了 监管部门聚焦直播电商乱象与数据不正当竞争、通过"穿透式"执法压实平台主体责任的明确信号。 对此，网经社电子商务研究中心独家策划并组织了9位专家，发布了《快手小店"七宗罪"遭市监总局"顶格处罚"2669万元 直播电商首次迎来"穿透式"监 管：网经社独家解读报告》(25页完整版)。 ERVITY THE THE SEE 中国商业联合会直播电商 中国跨境电商50人论坛 路" TOP10景 副令长审位 副秘书长 社 ...

晚会再次见到岳云鹏、黄晓明等国民老朋友，奠定扎实的表演基础与广泛共鸣；陈立农、蒲熠星、唐九 洲等新生代偶像的加入，则为晚会注入了鲜明的青春气息，精准连接年轻观众。经典搭档杜海涛与吴昕 将同台重现欢乐基因，带来沉浸式互动体验。而"喜人"孙天宇、蒋易、王男、王广将贡献独特的喜剧看 点。此外，阵容还囊括了彭小苒、谭维维、安崎、上官喜爱、乌兰图雅、NAME组合、奔赴少年CIIU等 多领域实力创作者，多元化的表演形式将同台绽放，充分展现艺术的融合魅力。 众星以热爱赴舞台，以欢喜迎马年。他们将在小年夜的舞台上，用歌声、舞蹈、互动等多种形式，串联 起年味与新意，为观众呈现一场"嗨到跺脚"的新春狂欢。目前，用户上快手搜索"快手马年星晚"，即可 提前解锁明星阵容花絮，让年味提前解冻。 多重互动玩法上线 全民参与赢好礼直通现场 除了豪华的明星阵容，快手马年星晚更注重"全民参与感"，打造了四大互动玩法，为用户准备了 iPhone、金条等多重硬核好礼，并开通了"直通晚会现场"的专属通道，让每一位用户都能从旁观者变为 参与者。 乙巳辞旧岁，丙午启新程。随着马年新春的脚步日渐临近，年味氛围愈发浓厚。为了给全国用户献上一 场兼具仪式感与烟 ...

Core Insights - The New Year shopping festival serves as a critical marketing node for brands to capture consumer demand and gain a competitive edge for the year ahead [1] - Kuaishou's Magnetic Engine provides a comprehensive operational solution for merchants, focusing on traffic strategies, tool empowerment, and policy support to meet diverse industry needs [1] Group 1: AI Tools and Smart Investment - AI tools and precise investment strategies are essential for merchants to reduce costs and enhance efficiency during digital marketing [1] - The brand Yalu Fangge optimized its content strategy and utilized AI tools to significantly increase promotional spending by 92% during the New Year festival, achieving a 129% increase in daily average spending compared to December [1] - Baiyunshan leveraged AI tools and health-focused materials to enhance operational efficiency, resulting in a 30% increase in advertising spending during the early bird period and a 200,000 increase in material exposure [1] Group 2: C Subsidy Policies and Comprehensive Collaboration - Kuaishou's C subsidy policy aims to lower operational costs for merchants and stimulate consumer potential, helping them break through competitive bottlenecks [1][2] - The brand Deyou utilized a 16% C subsidy and a multi-matrix approach to improve its live streaming engagement by 22% and enhance its infrastructure by 50%, leading to a 9% increase in ROI [2] Group 3: Fine-tuned Operations and Long-term Brand Growth - Fine-tuned operations are crucial for merchants to build brand assets and explore new growth opportunities amid concentrated consumer demand [3] - The brand Fuyan Jie optimized its promotional strategies and enhanced user purchase intent, achieving a 200% increase in spending and a 161% increase in product CTR during the New Year festival [3] - The brand Qingquan Runjia shifted its operational strategy to a product and brand combination model, resulting in a 108% increase in ROI during the festival [4] Group 4: Market Adaptation and Product Strategy - The brand Meierya focused on expanding its product line during the New Year festival, utilizing a price-cutting strategy and various promotional methods to drive sales [5] - The overall operational ecosystem of Kuaishou supports brands, factories, and newcomers in finding suitable growth paths, emphasizing the platform's capability to adapt to market demands [6]