In this articleLLYThe Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk logos.Mike Blake | Tom Little | ReutersIt's a tale of two drugmakers in the red-hot obesity drug market. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are grappling with lower prices in the U.S., but their 2026 outlooks are diverging sharply: While Novo is bracing for a sales decline, Lilly sees revenue jumping again thanks to its blockbuster medicines. The split in guidance – despite similar headwinds – underscores the strength of Lilly's position in the obesity and diabe ...

Core Insights - The competition in the GLP-1 market has intensified between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk following their recent fourth-quarter earnings reports [1] Eli Lilly's Performance - Eli Lilly has gained market leadership with its tirzepatide drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, which show superior weight loss efficacy of around 20% compared to semaglutide's 14% [2] - In the fourth quarter, Eli Lilly's revenue increased by 43% to $19.3 billion, surpassing consensus estimates of $17.9 billion, driven by a 46% volume growth despite a 5% decline in realized prices [7] - Mounjaro sales surged 110% to $7.4 billion, exceeding the forecast of $6.7 billion, while Zepbound revenue increased by 123% to $4.3 billion [8] - For 2026, Eli Lilly projects revenue growth of 27% to between $80 billion and $83 billion, above the consensus of $77.6 billion, with adjusted earnings expected to be between $33.50 and $35.00 per share [8] Novo Nordisk's Challenges - Novo Nordisk initially dominated the GLP-1 market but is now facing challenges, including a projected sales decline of 5% to 13% in 2026 at constant exchange rates, marking its first sales drop since 2017 [3][5] - The company reported 10% sales growth for 2025 at constant exchange rates, totaling 309 billion Danish kroner, which fell short of analysts' expectations of 347 billion kroner [4] - The fourth quarter showed an 8% revenue decline, although it slightly beat expectations, while earnings per share missed forecasts [4] - CEO Mike Doustdar cited U.S. pricing discounts, upcoming patent expirations for semaglutide, and competition from Lilly's Zepbound as reasons for the shortfall [5] Market Dynamics - Both companies face common challenges such as pricing pressures, competition, and patent risks, but their trajectories are diverging significantly [9] - Eli Lilly's pipeline, including the anticipated approval of orforglipron in Q2, positions it for sustained strength in the market [10] - Novo Nordisk is attempting to counteract pricing pressures with the launch of an oral version of Wegovy, which has shown early signs of success [6]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding key trends and catalysts in the biotech, pharma, and healthcare industries to make informed investment decisions [1] - Edmund Ingham, a biotech consultant, has extensive experience covering over 1,000 companies in the biotech, healthcare, and pharma sectors [1] - The Haggerston BioHealth investing group provides insights for both novice and experienced investors, including product sales forecasts and integrated financial statements [1]

Eli Lilly (LLY) stock rose as much as 10% in midday trading on Wednesday after the American drugmaker rolled out a strong sales outlook that touted the strength of its weight-loss portfolio and sent its market cap back near $1 trillion. The rally in Lilly also pressured shares of its main weight-loss rival, Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk (NVO), for a second straight day. Novo stock fell as much as 6% in afternoon trade on Wednesday. Eli Lilly reported Wednesday morning that it expects 2026 revenue to gro ...

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's stock has dropped approximately 18% following a weaker outlook for fiscal 2026, indicating challenges in sales growth and competitive pressures in the obesity and diabetes markets [1]. Novo Nordisk 2026 Guidance - Novo Nordisk anticipates a sales decline of -5% to -13% at constant exchange rates (CER) for 2026, excluding $4.2 billion from the reversal of 340B provisions [2]. - The sales outlook is affected by lower realized prices due to the "Most Favoured Nations" agreement in the U.S., patent expirations for semaglutide in certain markets, and increased competition [2]. Revenue from Weight Loss Drugs - Sales of Novo Nordisk's Ozempic increased by 1% to 31.83 billion Danish kroner (approximately $5.03 billion), while Wegovy sales rose by 17% to 21.86 billion Danish kroner (around $3.46 billion) [4]. - Mounjaro's revenue more than doubled to $7.4 billion, and U.S. Zepbound revenue surged 122% to $4.2 billion [4]. One Year Stock Performance - Over the past year, Novo Nordisk's stock has decreased by around 42%, contrasting with Eli Lilly's stock, which has increased by approximately 34% [5]. - Novo Nordisk's pipeline primarily includes insulin products, heart disease medications, and weight loss drugs, while Eli Lilly has a broader pipeline that includes treatments for cancer, Alzheimer's, and other conditions [5]. Competitive Landscape - Novo Nordisk has significantly increased its U.S. advertising expenditure on Wegovy and Ozempic in 2025, surpassing Eli Lilly as competition intensifies in the obesity and diabetes sectors [6]. - Despite the advancements with Wegovy, Novo Nordisk has struggled to compete with Eli Lilly's Zepbound, which has outperformed Wegovy in weekly new prescriptions this year [6]. Price Action - At the time of publication, Novo Nordisk shares were down 5.85% at $47.35, while Eli Lilly shares were up 9.56% at $1,099.38 [7].

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's revenue surged by 45% in 2025, reaching $65.2 billion, primarily driven by the success of GLP-1RA drugs in the obesity market [1] - The company's market capitalization has reached around $1 trillion, making it the first healthcare company to achieve this milestone [2] Revenue Breakdown - Mounjaro (tirzepatide) generated approximately $23 billion in sales, while Zepbound (tirzepatide) contributed $13.5 billion [3] - Other products, including breast cancer therapy Verzenio (abemaciclib), also contributed significantly with $5.7 billion in sales [4] - Lilly's revenue in Q4 2025 was up 43% compared to Q4 2024, exceeding analyst expectations by $1.3 billion [4] Future Outlook - For 2026, Lilly anticipates revenue growth to continue, projecting between $80 billion and $83 billion [5] - The company is also preparing for the potential approval of its oral GLP-1RA candidate orforglipron by the FDA [5] Manufacturing Expansion - Lilly announced plans for four new manufacturing facilities in the US as part of a $27 billion investment, with at least three designated for weight loss therapies [6] - Analysts from Citi noted that Mounjaro's sales exceeded expectations, positioning 2026 for strong performance driven by the incretin franchise [6] Competitive Landscape - Lilly's success contrasts with rival Novo Nordisk, which has seen a decline in its market position despite being the first to market with injectable GLP-1RAs [6] - Novo Nordisk has warned of a potential 13% sales drop in 2026, relying on the new oral Wegovy (semaglutide) for recovery [7]

Market Overview - Stocks are facing pressure due to fears that AI disruption may negatively impact traditional enterprise software companies, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 1% and 2% respectively [1] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares fell over 16% despite reporting a beat and raise, indicating that the market expected even stronger guidance [1] - Eli Lilly shares rose nearly 10% following a significant earnings beat and raise, with further analysis to be released [1] Sector Rotation - The rotation away from technology stocks is benefiting industrials, with Eaton experiencing volatility but closing nearly 1% higher after a mixed fourth quarter and light guidance [1] - Dover, another industrial stock, saw shares increase nearly 3% due to the same rotation [1] Company-Specific Updates - GE Vernova shares dropped 7.5% to around $722 despite an upgrade from Baird to outperform, with a new price target set at $923, up from $701 [1] - Analysts at Baird noted that concerns about overcapacity are not immediate, and the energy infrastructure cycle is still in early stages [1] - GE Vernova was upgraded to a buy-equivalent rating after solid earnings, with a reiterated price target of $800 based on confidence in its power and electrification businesses [1] Additional Stocks Covered - Other stocks mentioned include Advanced Micro Devices, Chipotle, Uber, Amgen, and Five Below, indicating a broad market interest [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Composite falling over 400 points, while the Dow increased by 0.24% to 49,358.09 and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.89% to 6,856.40 [1] - Energy shares rose by 1.7%, while information technology stocks fell by 2.1% [1] Company Performance - Eli Lilly and Co. saw its stock jump approximately 10% after reporting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $7.54 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $6.67. The company's sales reached $19.3 billion, exceeding the consensus of $17.96 billion [2] Commodity Market - In commodity trading, oil prices increased by 0.4% to $63.46, while gold prices decreased by 0.5% to $4,909.70. Silver prices rose by 1.6% to $84.615, and copper prices fell by 3.2% to $5.8945 [3] European Market - European shares were mixed, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 gaining 0.03%, while Spain's IBEX 35 Index fell by 0.09%. London's FTSE 100 increased by 0.85%, Germany's DAX slipped by 0.72%, and France's CAC 40 gained 1.01% [4] Asian Market - Asian markets closed higher, with Japan's Nikkei surging by 0.78%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gaining 0.05%, China's Shanghai Composite rising by 0.85%, and India's BSE Sensex increasing by 0.09% [5] Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI remained unchanged at 53.8 in January, matching the revised reading from December and exceeding market estimates of 53.5. The S&P Global composite PMI rose to 53.0 in January from a preliminary level of 52.8 and up from December's reading of 52.7 [7] - U.S. crude stocks declined by 3.455 million barrels for the week ending January 30, compared to market estimates of a 2 million-barrel draw [7]

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - U.S. stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Composite falling over 400 points, while the Dow increased by 0.24% to 49,358.09 and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.89% to 6,856.40 [1] - Energy shares rose by 1.7%, while information technology stocks fell by 2.1% [1] Group 2: Eli Lilly and Co. Performance - Eli Lilly's stock surged approximately 10% after reporting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $7.54 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of $6.67 [2] - The company's sales reached $19.3 billion, surpassing the consensus of $17.96 billion [2] Group 3: Commodity Market Updates - Oil prices increased by 0.4% to $63.46, while gold prices decreased by 0.5% to $4,909.70 [3] - Silver prices rose by 1.6% to $84.615, whereas copper prices fell by 3.2% to $5.8945 [3] Group 4: European Market Performance - European shares exhibited mixed results, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 gaining 0.03% and Spain's IBEX 35 Index declining by 0.09% [4] - London's FTSE 100 increased by 0.85%, Germany's DAX slipped by 0.72%, and France's CAC 40 gained 1.01% [4] Group 5: Asia Pacific Market Performance - Asian markets closed higher, with Japan's Nikkei rising by 0.78%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gaining 0.05%, China's Shanghai Composite increasing by 0.85%, and India's BSE Sensex up by 0.09% [5] Group 6: Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI remained unchanged at 53.8 in January, matching the revised reading from December and exceeding market estimates of 53.5 [7] - The S&P Global composite PMI rose to 53.0 in January from a preliminary level of 52.8 and December's reading of 52.7 [7] - U.S. crude stocks decreased by 3.455 million barrels for the week ending January 30, compared to market estimates of a 2 million-barrel draw [7]

Eli Lilly (LLY) reported $19.29 billion in revenue for the quarter ended December 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 42.6%. EPS of $7.54 for the same period compares to $5.32 a year ago.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.87 billion, representing a surprise of +7.95%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +7.88%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $6.99.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and ...